Article: Deadline Deal: Twins Trade Brian Dozier to Dodgers

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I don't think it angers anyone. Until you're mathematically eliminated, you're not mathematically eliminated; I just think some have an easier time accepting that the odds were ridiculously against this team.

 

If the Twins were running a marathon race, they'd be crossing the starting line while the Kenyans were passing mile 10. Does it meet the technical definition of "race"? Yes. Is it a race? Come on, now.

I think the running analogy falls flat. It was dire, mostly because they were giving away too many games. I would have liked to see if they could rally. 

 

"When the going gets tough", and all that. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mauer wants to keep playing. He has said as much.

[howeda7]

I saw someone on Twitter alleging that "sources" told him Mauer is going to retire. No idea if it has any validity. But it's possible he told the Twins this already and that played into who they targeted the last two days.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd retire due to the concussions alone.

 

yup. I would want ot have the best chance for a healthy brain as possible.

[howeda7]

Regarding being "in" it, Cleveland does not impress me, so anything is possible. But you also have to factor in the bigger picture. They had zero chance of advancing against NYY/Bos/Hou if they did make it. Zero. That's not normally the case in MLB play-offs, but it would have been this year.

 

Also, I'm not sure how much they actually hurt themselves. Escobar was replaced by Sano. Lynn by Santana. Pressly by May. Duke by Moya. Dozier is the only spot that really stings. If they somehow end up finishing within 4 games of Cleveland, we can wonder what might have been. But we didn't just make ourselves 10 games worse.

Edited July 31, 2018 by howeda7

[andy4butler]

 

At this point it's a good move and a decent get for Dozier. Raley is worth more than banking on Dozier getting a 50 mil deal, one in the hand is worth 2 in the bush as they say. Forsythe won't be around long imo, just long enough for some Seinfeld jokes in a GT.

At the end of the day, and without trying to be Capt Hindsight, Dozier really should have been traded at the deadline last season, given his age, contract status and the year he was having. There was no way his value was going higher.

I understand the reasons they didnt, but they should have anyway.

 

You do realize we made the playoffs last year because we did keep Dozier?  Let's say Santana isn't hurt and kept the early lead ... we are talking about even potentially moving on in place of a team that went to game 7 of the ALCS against the team that won the World Series.  

 

I'm not against trading Dozier this year.  Personally I would have liked to offer him the one year contract and if he takes it ... so be it or I do like the top 100 draft choice over two AA players that will have to be kept on the 40 man rather soon.  Yet, I can understand that we can have differing opinions on the return and hope our "lottery tickets" play out.  

 

The Dodgers had significant issues about staying above the luxury tax threshold this year and resetting their "penalty" for being a repeat abuser.  We needed to take back Logan (or include money to offset the salary).  

 

Just don't say we needed to trade Dozier at last trade deadline.  That would have be weird to me in hindsight.  

[NewClearHarley]

 

Raley was the key to this deal. Forsythe won’t be back after this season. Smeltzer has no future. Dozier stopped trying to pull every pitch mid-season last year and he rocketed. This year he is back to trying to pull everything. If the Dodgers can convince him to use all fields, he will once again excel.

From Rotoworld:

 

Raley, 23, has seen his stock rise after a strong 2018 season with Double-A Tulsa where he's hit 17 homers and posted an .822 OPS over 83 games. A seventh-round pick out of Lake Erie College, Raley has above-average power from the left side, and he makes enough hard contact to project a solid hit tool despite having some swing-and-miss in his game. He could be an everyday outfielder, and could help the Twins by the end of 2019.

 

Me: Lots of extra base hits and he has fared well at each level so far. I like this.

[jtkoupal]

 

Odd parallel:

Logan Forsythe hit 20 homers his last season in Tampa.

Logan Morrison hit 38 homers his last season in Tampa.

Since leaving TB both Logans have struggled at the plate.

Lesson learned: don't pick up guys from TB named Logan.

Be careful who you pick up from Tampa at all, at least on offense.

[Blake]

 

but why are we looking at RISP and only RISP? I don't understand.....

 

Let's just look at his WAR, or his offense overall.....

Ah, now I remember, I started down the RISP stat rabbit hole because someone mentioned that Mauer could hit more home runs if he wanted. I was trying to demonstrate that home run totals aren't necessarily the true measure of the ability of someone to get an RBI.

 

For what it's worth.

[h2oface]

Logan.200

 

We needed another Logan that is a black hole at the plate this year.

Dodgers needed to keep under the luxury tax limit.

 

Dozier gets to be in the playoffs, probably. My bet is he takes off and really benefits the Dodgers and his own upcoming free agency. This is a win/win/lose trade. Dodgers win. Dozier wins. Twins lose.

 

But hey.... the low level prospects fill rosters in the farm. Farm out. Far out. The maybes and maybe nots.  

 

[twinssouth]

Boy, this FO doesn't mess around, I lost count of all the guys traded. As Howeda7 alluded to, I'm not so sure they hurt themselves also. There were a number of underperformers this year that were moved on, with the exception of Escobar and that took me a few days to get over. But trading Dozier makes the most sense. Daily I'd check the box score and cringe at the number of runners LOB when he's batting So time to move on, maybe he was pressing trying to get that trillion $ contract. Who knows. Was surprised to see any return at all on this trade.

 

 

 

Would like to see a summary from the TDGuys on all the players the FO got and where they slot in to play, as well as rankings.

 

 

Great job to TD keeping us posted on the latest news. Tom F today beat MLB.com on the Dozier trade. Great scoop Tom.

 

 

 

Now, if we could just unload Morrison and The Rodney, life will be good.

[stringer bell]

I'm a big fan of Dozier, and thought his value to the team was pretty high. This year he hasn't been very good, let's face it. However, the last two years he was an elite player playing in the middle infield.

 

I have said before that I thought he was the team MVP for four years running. He was durable and developed into a power hitter despite less than optimum raw power. He was a good example to other players and never got in any kind of trouble. Replacing Brian Dozier won't  be easy.

 

What I've said since his breakout is that his career will be determined by his performance in his 30s. Will he be a Jeff Kent, who flourished until he was almost 40 or will he be Dan Uggla, who hit a wall right around 30 after being an all-time slugging second baseman. Most likely, he'll be something in between. I think there will be times the team and its management realizes that trading Dozier is a huge loss, but it does give someone else a chance and maybe that guy will be a great player, too.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

From Rotoworld:

 

Raley, 23, has seen his stock rise after a strong 2018 season with Double-A Tulsa where he's hit 17 homers and posted an .822 OPS over 83 games. A seventh-round pick out of Lake Erie College, Raley has above-average power from the left side, and he makes enough hard contact to project a solid hit tool despite having some swing-and-miss in his game. He could be an everyday outfielder, and could help the Twins by the end of 2019.

 

Me: Lots of extra base hits and he has fared well at each level so far. I like this.

 

And he's been hit by a pitch 39 times in the past two seasons. Way to lean into 'em, Luke! 

[Obsvr]

 

Most 35-year-olds don't.

 

Nothing anyone could do about Mauer, he couldn't be traded even if another club wanted him. All cutting him does is give more at bats to Morrison and Grossman. Yawn.

 

He won't be a Twin next year unless he's wearing a tie and sitting behind a desk.

 

 

I wasn't advocating cutting Mauer.

 

I was saying if he would change his batting approach he might have a few more years left in the tank.  If he doesn't he has no real value in the league.

 

 

 

 

[mlhouse]

 

There should be absolutely no push back to using prospects in trades in order to acquire better players next year. None. They have 30+ players that grade out C or better.

 

When was the last time the Twins made a move were they traded multiple prospects for an established player?  I think the answer will be never.  The Twins reduce the value of their prospects because they will never pick up the tab for high cost veterans and eventually many of them reach the level of their incompetence and they are worth nothing.

 

I think the FO did a reasonable job in these moves.  The sheer volume of them demonstrates that they got everything they could get.  I don't think that any of these trades are going to bring back a Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera like the Viola trade did, but hopefully out of the multitudes of minor league players they can eventually get at least one guy that can contribute.

[d-mac]

 

Diaz probably drops off that radar. He's been brutal since his promotion to A+ and now he's hurt.

I never understood the hype about Diaz. He's never produced.

[Thrylos]

 

Odd parallel:

Logan Forsythe hit 20 homers his last season in Tampa.

Logan Morrison hit 38 homers his last season in Tampa.

Since leaving TB both Logans have struggled at the plate.

Lesson learned: don't pick up guys from TB named Logan.

 

No worries. Soon both Logans will be Longgones.

 

(They had to pick up Forsythe for Tax $$$ reasons.)

[Thrylos]

 

When was the last time the Twins made a move were they traded multiple prospects for an established player?  I think the answer will be never. 

 

When was the last time the Twins traded 5 players at the deadline before this season?

 

The answer is never.

 

Never say never.

Edited August 1, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

I never understood the hype about Diaz. He's never produced.

 

Terrible signing. Said so at the time....check out some of his classmates.....

[sftwinsfan]

If I'm a Cleveland fan, I would have been pretty happy they surrendered.  Yeah, pretty doubtful they would have caught them.  To those people saying this team had no chance in a series in the post-season look to the 1987 team.  That team had no business beating the Tigers or Cardinals.  

 

That said, can't disagree too much with selling.  They didn't really get anybody back in any of the deals that's too exciting, definitely not going to move the needle in an offseason trade.  Maybe they'll get lucky and one guy will become a reliable bullpen arm or something.  Back to the bargain bin free agency in the offseason.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

We've just witnessed a pretty significant purge of veteran, and more importantly, fan-favorite Twins. I don't think that Mauer is immune to which direction Falvine apparently intend to go.

 

I think they offer a year-to-year, and then, only at a huge cut and out of "courtesy" to Joe. Will Joe pick up that vibe and accept a drastically reduced contract (and role) or retire?

 

I mean, they brought in and have kept Belisle so its not a veteran thing. They traded veterans and fan-favorites because they were on their last year of a contract and that's what a team should do.

 

What contract wouldn't be a pay cut after $23 million? Are you talking a $3 million insult offer? Or something $8-10 million? Cuz I think he'd take that. He wants to play another year and for 2019, he fits the Twins plans. Barring some extensive free agent signings, which seems unlikely, he's likely to get as many games as he wants - even if Rooker and Austin are ready, the former of which seems unlikely.

 

2020 may be another matter.

[darin617]

 

IMO 1st round pick would have been better.  2nd round pick would have been worse.  They clearly think Dozier wouldn't get $50M this offseason, so they pulled the trigger.  Raley looks like a good get, but I'm shocked they needed to tie in Forsythe to get the deal done.

LA can't take on salary without moving another. Luxury tax issues.

[Tuba]

I'm okay with this but I wonder why the Twins wouldn't take what the Brewers gave the Orioles for Schoop?

 

EDIT: nevermind, Schoop has another year of team control

[h2oface]

 

I mean, they brought in and have kept Belisle so its not a veteran thing. They traded veterans and fan-favorites because they were on their last year of a contract and that's what a team should do.

 

I'm pretty sure Belisle is on the last year of his contract, too. So trade him. Or just cut him. Immediately if not sooner. That's what a team should do.

Edited August 1, 2018 by h2oface

[TheLeviathan]

 

When was the last time we even sniffed .500?

 

April 22nd was the last time we were actually at .500.

 

Good luck to Dozier, I think his contract this offseason might be his last, so I hope he has a chance to cash in.

[mngopherguy]

 

IMO, Forsythe coming probably benefits Gordon.   NG needs to focus on finishing the AAA season on a high note.  If someone's struggling to swim in the deep end, you don't pull them out, fit them with a 40# weight vest, and then throw them back in.  It isn't going to look any better.

 

I wish there was a way to like this ten times...

[davidc3915]

So I had the Dodgers/Brewers game on when Dozier arrived in the Dodger dugout.  He was shaking hands and being friendly.  One of the Dodger announcers said, "Of course he's happy.  He finally made it to the big leagues."  So unnecessary. 

[mngopherguy]

 

That's not fair at all. I think this return is an accurate representation of Dozier's current value -- but that doesn't mean I endorse trading him for that return.

 

I believe you, but for the website, I think it's really close to 100%

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

So I had the Dodgers/Brewers game on when Dozier arrived in the Dodger dugout.  He was shaking hands and being friendly.  One of the Dodger announcers said, "Of course he's happy.  He finally made it to the big leagues."  So unnecessary. 

 

Somebody should inform this announcer that the Dodgers haven't won anything since the Reagan years.

[mngopherguy]

 

There’s no such thing as a “reduced role” player in these days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs.

I think the Twins try like hell to bring Escobar back to play 3b, move Sano to 1b/dh and use Austin there as well. Austin can also play some OF to spell the regulars and I would expect Granite or Cave to be at the MLB level as a reserve as well.

 

I'd love to have Escobar back at a reasonable price,  I also like Cave much more than Granite.  Better hitter and better arm.