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Article: Will Brian Dozier Get Traded?


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One of the ever evolving story lines for the Minnesota Twins this year has been, what will they do with Brian Dozier come the trade deadline? Obviously, entering the season trading Dozier was never in the Twins’ plans as they hoped to compete for a repeat berth in the postseason. However, in more ways than we can count, the season hasn’t gone according to plan, which led the Twins to officially announce themselves as sellers by trading away Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly last Friday.When we were initially having the discussion on whether or not to trade Dozier, it mostly revolved around if it was better to trade him, or wait and give him a qualifying offer this offseason so the Twins could get the draft pick compensation that would come if Dozier signed elsewhere. However, at this point it is growing ever more unlikely that the Twins would even give Dozier a qualifying offer. While many would argue that bringing back Dozier on a one-year deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, they may very well be able to do so even without the qualifying offer, except on a much cheaper contract, if that is something the Twins wish to do.

 

This points all signs in the direction of the Twins trading Dozier as the obvious move to make right now. However, as the days progress the options for where the Twins could send Dozier seem to be dwindling.

 

From the get-go, the Milwaukee Brewers seemed like the team that was most interested in trading for Brian Dozier. They had obvious needs at both middle-infield positions and were looking to fill them before the trade deadline. However, the Brewers appear to have found their solution for second base by moving Travis Shaw over there after the addition of Mike Moustakas. It will be interesting to see how that works out, as Shaw never even played second base as a minor leaguer. Either way, it appears to be the solution the Brewers are going with, which takes them out of the Brian Dozier sweepstakes.

 

The other team that was favored as a potential landing spot for Dozier was the Boston Red Sox. With Dustin Pedroia shelved nearly all season with an injury, the Red Sox have been trotting out Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt to play second base. The results have been less than desirable, as they have received a WAR of 0.1 (Fangraphs) from the position this year. With that being the case, Dozier to the Red Sox still makes the most sense. However, with the trade deadline less than 24 hours away, the rumors of the Red Sox interest in Dozier have become almost nonexistent.

 

There have been two other teams that have shown some interest in Brian Dozier of late, and they are the San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians. I wrote about why I thought the Giants would be interested in Dozier a couple of weeks ago. However, with Joe Panik currently on a rehab stint and the Giants falling a little further back in the playoff push (6.5 GB in division and 6.0 GB in wild card entering Monday) they might not be as incentivized to trade for Dozier as they previously were.

 

From the Cleveland Indians perspective, I don’t see how much they would have to gain by adding Dozier. I don’t think the inter-division aspect will prevent it from happening as we have already seen teams show they are no longer afraid to make trades with their rivals, especially for rental players. Logically, Dozier isn’t much of an upgrade over a declining Jason Kipnis as they both have a 1.1 WAR (Fangraphs) so far this season. Dozier could potentially bring a platoon split with Kipnis being a lefty and Dozier being a righty, but both players have actually been better against left-handed pitching this season.

 

Another factor at play is how Dozier has continued to struggle, even after it looked like he turned the corner leading into the All-Star break. In the week and a half since the break, Dozier has a slash line of just .175/.227/.225 with just two extra-base hits (20 wRC+). Overall on the season, Dozier has a slash line of .224/.306/.404 and 16 home runs (91 wRC+).

 

I still think that something should get done before 3 PM CST tomorrow, but if they do I wouldn’t expect that great of a return given that the market for Dozier doesn’t appear to be all that bright.

 

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I agree with your assessment and have said for a while now that I don't see Dozier getting traded...not because we don't want to move him.  Rather because it's tough to sell what no one really wants to buy.  I've detailed in other posts the 2B's that are out there and they are more attractive than Dozier.  Time may prove me wrong, but I don't see him being moved.

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Agreed, I very much doubt they're able to trade him. By most accounts the offers from last year when he had 1.5 years of service were already underwhelming. Now add in a bad season and only 2 months of ABs and I'm not sure we can expect anything of value. 

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I doubt anyone will ever find out the truth, but I did wonder if the Brewers offered the same deal for Dozier as they made for Moustakas. Moustakas has been a slightly better hitter, but they both have identical ZiPS projections and Dozier probably gets a few bonus points for actually being a 2B rather than forcing Shaw to a position he has literally never played before. Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if the offer (two quasi-failed prospects that both require 40-man spots) was greeted with a "thanks, but no thanks" response from the Twins.

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Either way, if Dozier is still a Twins once the deadline passes, TD is really going to need the front office to differentiate between whether they couldn't or wouldn't trade Dozier. It'll get ugly around here with people making their preferred assumptions.

 

Yeah I am still wondering what happened with the Brewers.  It almost seems like we might have been asking for too much or maybe KC just took what the Brewers didn't really need anymore and it made it more attractive to deal with them.  The Twins didn't need another 4th outfielder and struggling reliever.   I am curious though because Dozier was a good fit for them.

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I think Dozier wants to get paid. And I think he still believes he will get paid.

So, I think there is a pretty good chance that he'd (foolishly?) turn down a QO. I think the FO plans to QO him, and won't trade him for less than a top 75-ish pick equivalent prospect, which I don't think they'll get, so long story short I don't think he gets moved.

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I would hope they don’t trade Mr. Dozier just to free up a roster spot. It doesn’t appear Gordon is ready- fine- not a problem. If Dozier has one of his famous hot streaks the last 2 months, a QO would not be the worst thing to happen.

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If they plan on offering him a QO, he won't get traded. I'm not sure they would (or should) offer him a QO, so I'd think he's going to the higest bidder, which I doubt will be a very good prospect.

 

I could see a scenario where the offer for Dozier is so pitiful that the Twins keep him and cross their fingers that he turns things around and is quasi-worth a QO.

 

Unfortunately if that happens, the fans almost surely will not know the internal decision making process of that one.

 

A Dozier/Duke pairing or something similar might help hide the low worth of the team's former best player.

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I think I am in the minority in that I would rather they keep Dozier.  He is starting to climb the all time franchise list of stats.  Which to me has entertainment value.  With 2 more seasons of 25 HRs Dozier could be 4th all time in HRs.  Currently he is 10th.  He is 2 SBs away from being 1 of only 5 who have both 100 SBs and 100 HRs as a Twin.

 

He is also around the top 20 in Hits, Runs, RBIs and climbing.  

 

If we aren't going to win we may as well have something right?  No...We have to suck all the fun out.  ......Figures....

 

I hope they sign Dozier to a 1 or 2 year contract around the 10 million AAV.  I would have thought he would get a 4 year 60 million before this season.  I know the angels and Dodgers will be looking for a second baseman this offseason but other than that I don't know who would really go after Dozier as a FA?  The Angels may just resign Kinsler.  

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Dozier has been a net loss for the year.  He should have been on fire for FA, he should have been leading the club, but he has struggled even beyond his normal half season splits.  Dozier has value here because he is a known quality and we all tend to over value our own assets.

 

But as an upgrade for anyone, he is not making it happen and giving up anything for him just makes no sense.  Including for the Twins.  If we need Adrianza and Polanco to team up in the middle next year we will be fine.  Eventually Gordon will be there and then Lewis will be up and either Gordon or Polanco will be at second.  

 

Dozier is 1.1  War and Ehire is 0.5 WAR with less playing time.  It does not matter what Dozier did in the past, right now he is not essential to this team or anyone else, but maybe we will get lucky.

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Dozier is in the lineup tonight hitting 4th. Scary as the thought of Dozier hitting 4th for any team is, that tells us that he hasn't been traded yet. 

 

I'm beginning to think he's not going to get traded.  He just isn't performing well enough to trade prospects for a rental.

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I wonder where the Twins are heading.  We do not have the big players where we can actually get quality in return.  Everyone we trade is for future minor league prospects.  What this leaves us with is a team of VERY young unproven players where we are hoping they all gel together so we can make a playoff run.  Dozier, while struggling, is still one of the better players the Twins currently have with the exit of Escobar and Pressly.  Next year we will have all position players (with the exception of Mauer) being filled with young players that we "hope" are major league ready or will finally "turn the corner".  The percentage of prospects that actually turn out seems low and how many years are we talking before they can actually make a contribution?  Does this mean the Twins are now at the start of their 5 year rebuilding plan?  I hope not.

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In the interest of satisfying the QO proponents would you accept C Mario Feliciano back from the Brew Crew straight up for the Doze?

 

He was 2016 CBB pick #75

That would depend how confident the Twins scouts were that he can stick at catcher. There seem to be some serious doubts about his ability to stick back there.

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Community Moderator

 

Moreover, over the last two seasons, Adrianza has played 141 games, hit .257/.318/.385 (.703) and amassed a roughly 1.8 WAR, higher if you use a multiplier to get to 155+ games. He's been a better than average hitting SS and improves the defense because Polanco becomes the 2B. We lose Dozier's power but get better defense up the middle. Adrianza for Dozier is at least a wash and may be an improvement. 

Adrianza has put up a 90 and 89 OPS+ the last two seasons. Even in Dozier's down year this year he's at 92, and the season prior it was 126.

 

Adrianza/Polanco is not an "improvement." 

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all these trades and Twins haven't even addressed there major need in position player and thats catcher. I would have thought they would have tried to find couple of catchers in A levels from some these teams hoped one would stick and could become a catcher for the Twins in near future. Still loading up outfielders, first baseman and lot of relief type pitching prospects. This sure looks like This Front office is blowing up organization starting over to me and before we contend again will be 2021 at the earliest. I am betting before we start next year Sano and Buxton may also will be gone for prospects. I don't know if i can take another couple of 95 to 100 loss seasons but i am afraid that what there going to do. This Front office is going to build on their draft pick of Royce lewis and the future 95 plus loss seasons draft picks. I like to hear how they spin this next couple of years. Only reason to continue to watch this team is see how many players they are going to trade away before year end. I feel for Molitor he's being set up for the fall guy and he's one is going to be offered to public as needed correction to get this club going in right direction. I don't care how good manager you are can't win without talent and also with players not buying into what a front office is doing. I am willing to bet its going to be hard to sign FA in future to come to MN with this front office. The word will be Front office at any signs of loosing is going to throw in the towel and look to the future. If put something together like this year you need to show players you believe in what you did and expect them to also buy in believe they can win. But now two years in row they just waive white flag and give up not something you want to be teaching your young developing players but they are doing again as Front office. I got quit rambling but its hard not to be totally disappointed see we are becoming the new Chicago Cubs of the American league.

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Brian Dozier may just have gone permanent pumpkin.  He's not at an age with middle-infielders that is very encouraging going forward.  

 

I would consider the QO if they can't find a deal, but I only do so hoping he can rebuild value again and deal him off.  If he has gone pumpkin, that QO is the last dollar I pay him.

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If your plan for next season is to reset the lineup, then I don't see why management would even think about keeping Dozier.  With the trades that have already been implemented (and getting a crop of MiLBer's ), I'm seeing a tough road to contention for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

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If your plan for next season is to reset the lineup, then I don't see why management would even think about keeping Dozier.  With the trades that have already been implemented (and getting a crop of MiLBer's ), I'm seeing a tough road to contention for the foreseeable future. 

yeah, but of those four, who stops it from being a tough road to contend if we had kept them?  

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I’m indifferent to Dozier being traded or not.

Gordon’s problem is stamina. He starts each season like a ball on fire and fades about midway through his season—look at his history.

Dozier is not going to made $9M next season with a .220 BA. More likely he signs for half that with a load of add-on incentives. He’s still solid in the field.

Dozier can be a placeholder while those middle fielders behind Gordon catch up.

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Trying to quick hit this.

 

1] Really thought Dozier would go before Escobar. Wrote a week or so ago that were I a GM, with his history this would be the guy I'd be looking to rent, knowing he might not exactly cost a fortune to re-sign if I wanted to. Considering his history, I might even overpay some. I am very sad to say, for whatever reason, Dozier is offering no reason for anyone to trade for him. Frankly his best offer/opportunity may be a 1 year to remain with the Twins.

 

2] Infield depth is a question going forward. Other than Gordon, everyone is in the lower minors. Even if you keep Dozier, there is room for a smart addition. His contributions and love for the team, and the love and admiration of his teammates, if Escobar isn't a high priority for the FO, then im not sure what they are thinking.

 

3] Despite limited returns on some of the trades made, the simple truth is the next 2 months are about auditions. I hate the B.S. of auditions and waiting until next year. But the reality in sports...life in general at times as a reflection...is wait until next year. So much was right when the season began. So much went wrong. But there is so much to look forward to. Not just auditions for the next 2 months, but they are a part of it. There is still so much damn talent and potential with this roster than it seems almost inconceivable they could bottom out again...relatively speaking...especially with a few smart moves and promotions.

 

4] Speaking of...time for promotions and auditions! The season sucks, and so do some performances. Doesn't mean all the talent does! As an organization and as a fan base, let's Play Ball and have fun and audition for 2019!

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