Article: The Potential Return of a Kyle Gibson Trade

[Andrew Thares]

One of the more hot button issues for the Twins at the trade deadline has been what to do with Kyle Gibson. Do the Twins just hang onto him and let 2019 play out as it will, or do they try to trade him and look to keep building towards the future? Ultimately, the deciding factor will come down to the package the Twins get in return. While they likely won’t get a player who could one day be one of the 10 best athletes ever, they could certainly get a pretty good package in return for Gibson.There are currently three big factors going in the Twins favor. The first is how well Gibson has been pitching dating back to the end of last season. Another factor helping Gibson’s trade value is the lack of good available starting pitchers on the trade market. There have been rumors around Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer, but there is a good chance that none of those three get traded before the deadline. After that the list of available starting pitchers drops off considerably, and Gibson is arguably better than all of them. The final thing helping Gibson’s trade value is the extra year of team control for 2019.

 

What kind of return could the Twins get in exchange for Kyle Gibson? Look at some of the other trades that have already been made. On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays struck a deal that sent Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox in exchange for Jalen Beeks. Beeks was recently ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. The Red Sox system isn’t as strong as most other farm systems across the league, so that ranking may look better than what Beeks would rank in many other systems.

 

When comparing Kyle Gibson and Nathan Eovaldi, Gibson would easily be viewed as the more desirable trade candidate. Not only is Gibson more appealing for the remainder of this season, but he also has that extra year of control that Eovaldi doesn’t have. So it could be assumed that the package for Gibson would be a much better return than Jalen Beeks.

 

To get a better idea of which prospects the Twins might be targeting, let’s break down a couple different teams that might have some interest in Kyle Gibson and see what they have to offer.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Not only have the Brewers been in talks with the Twins in regards to both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, but they now have an interest in Kyle Gibson as well. A big part of this stems from the recent injury to Brent Suter, who will likely need Tommy John Surgery and probably won’t be back before the end of the 2019 season. For the Brewers, Kyle Gibson would make the perfect replacement in their rotation for Suter.

 

When looking at the Brewers farm system, they have two key prospects that stick out: second baseman Keston Hiura and right-handed pitcher Corbin Burns. Hiura and Burns currently rank 34^th and 58^th respectively in Baseball America’s Top 100. Personally, I don’t see the Brewers giving up Hiura for Gibson, and I think it is unlikely that they will give up Burns for Gibson (at least not straight up).

 

I think a deal for Gibson will wind up revolving around either Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray, along with an additional quality or prospect or two. Of the two, I personally prefer Ray to Peralta, even though Peralta is an MLB ready pitcher and Ray is an outfield prospect (of which the Twins have plenty). My reasoning for this is the upside on Corey Ray appears to be a lot higher than the upside on Freddy Peralta. With his stuff, I don’t see Peralta becoming anything better than a 3 or 4 starter, while Ray brings a rare combination of speed and power in the outfield. There are some concerns about some swing and miss in Ray’s game, but he has moved in the right direction lowering his strikeout rate from 31 percent down to 27.2 percent, while increasing his walk rate from 9.5 percent up to 11 percent at Double-A this season.

 

 

Oakland Athletics

 

With their surge over the past month, the Oakland A’s have vaulted themselves right into playoff contention. A big part of their success comes from their hitters and relievers, who rank 7^th and 9^th respectively in fWAR in the MLB. However, if there is one area in which the A’s could use some improvement, it is their starting rotation.

 

The Athletics farm system is headlined by two stud pitchers in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. However I don’t see either one of those guys being made available in a trade for Gibson. I think the trade would actually revolve around catching prospect Sean Murphy. While Murphy is know a little more for his glove and his arm behind the plate, he is also putting together a nice season offensively with a .291/.359/.509 slash line (128 wRC+) in 65 Double-A games this season. Murphy is currently ranked as the 3^rd best prospect in the A’s system and the 59^th best prospect overall.

 

I could also see Minnesota native Logan Shore possibly being involved in a package for Gibson. While he certainly won’t be the headliner of the deal, the 23-year-old pitching prospect could make a good secondary prospect in the deal.

 

https://m.youtube.co...h?v=l6j5U0y9WHw

 

Colorado Rockies

 

As Jeremy Nygaard recently pointed out, the Colorado Rockies would also make an excellent suitor for Kyle Gibson’s services. The Rockies are a team that is always looking for starting pitching help, and adding a starter with an extra year of control has always been something they have sought.

 

In Jeremy’s article, he touched on Rockies corner-infield prospect Ryan McMahon as a potential return. As an MLB-ready bat, and the ability to play third, McMahon could step in nicely and become the Twins full time third baseman as soon as the end of this season. After McMahon, a couple prospects to keep your eye on are middle-infielder Garrett Hampson and third basemen Colton Welker. Hampson is close to MLB ready and could give Nick Gordon some competition for the starting second base job next season, while Welker is still a couple years away and could join the elite group of prospects the Twins already have in Fort Myers.

 

The Twins might also ask on pitching prospect Peter Lambert, but as is usually the case with the Rockies, they are more reluctant to give away their pitching prospects as free agent starting pitchers tend to stay away from Colorado.

 

 

The Brewers, Athletics and Rockies are three teams that I see as great fits for Kyle Gibson, but there are other possibilities. Numerous teams could be looking for an extra starter to help them in a postseason run. Right now, Gibson is certainly that.

 

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[curt1965]

No thank you! Starters don’t grow on trees!

[Platoon]

It depends on if the Twins are in blow up mode? They really are in a 'stuck in the middle phase' right now. Another Murphy catcher? Hmmmm. But seriously the Twins need catching, like everyone. And if they trade Dozier, Hampson would make sense. And Welker would anytime, since Sano will not play third much past Mauers retirement.

[FormerMinnasotan]

At this point you can’t trade Gibson (I can’t believe I said that). He is finally coming into his own, and here’s the crazy thing he’s getting better results by using the pitches major league scouts raved about while he pitched in the minors. Gibson’s change in strategy (less sinkers, more breaking balls) are leading to Gibson being harder to hit off and upping his strike outs.

[TheLeviathan]

I love the high-upside Class A/AA approach of the first two trades.  But I think if Gibson is moved the return needs to be closer to contributing to the big leagues.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think the Rockies and A's line up a bit better. I woudln't mind one of those top two pitching prospects from the Brewers, but the team has way too many on the 40 man now and really needs catching and infield prospects in the high minors. I think either of those teams make a lot more sense.

[olerud]

of the 3 teams I would prefer the Rockies, if they deal Gibson to the brewers they need one of those top 2 otherwise I'd tell them to get bent!

 

[Doctor Wu]

I understand the temptation to sell when a player like Gibson is pitching well and still has that extra year of team control. But as others have pointed out, quality starting pitchers are not so easy to find, and Gibson seems to have turned into that rare beast int past year. I say: keep him!

[Thebigalguy]

I agree that Gibson has become a top line starter. If he’s traded, it tells me FalVine have decided the team is years from contention and that fans will suffer through next year when Gibson is still under control.

[jorgenswest]

Any trade of Gibson must improve the 2019 team.

[the_brute_squad]

I don't see a reason to let Gibson go. He's finally developed into a more than serviceable starter and then you trade him for a potential? If Gibson continues on this path he could be here another 7-8 years and average 12-15 victories a season if this team competes. Gibson's potential is much greater than unknown, non-established potential.

[mikelink45]

 

I don't see a reason to let Gibson go. He's finally developed into a more than serviceable starter and then you trade him for a potential? If Gibson continues on this path he could be here another 7-8 years and average 12-15 victories a season if this team competes. Gibson's potential is much greater than unknown, non-established potential.

I think 7 - 8 years is really pushing it, but 4 -5 would still be great and we know they will want the veteran to mix with the young arms.  Let Gibson be that player.  So far the trades are for arms and OF.  Not sure what that strategy is considering our OF talent, but for now, let Gibson stay and get rid of the Belisle and company trash heap even if it is a DFA.

[zenser]

I hope they dont trade him but if they do I am not necessarily considered with the positions of the prospects. I just want quality talent. If down the road you have a surplus that can be used to acquire a specific target. I just want to see high end talent.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Offer would have to blow them out of the water I’d thing. Rather keep him and have a good 1-2 punch with him and Berrios next season.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd keep him and look to this offseason to make a decision on him. Try to extend him for a reasonable amount, and if he won't do it, you can always trade him then when you have a multitude of teams looking for starting pitching help. 

 

I just think with how well he's pitched, you have to at least consider making him a part of this team for the next few years. If he won't have it, or wants way too much money, then go and see what you can get for him, but I think a major sit down talk and see what we can do needs to happen before they trade him. 

[tvagle]

Win-Win situation with Gibson (depending on trade return)

 

Keep hime because he's the New Gibby and pair him with Berrios for another year

Trade him for AA-AAA talent that could replace those who leave (via trade or Free Agency this Fall)

 

Great minds and all that...I posted this a couple days ago

 

Gibson and the Doze to the A's for

C- Sean Murphy

P- Logan Shore/Hogan Harris

and a Parker Dunshee to be named later (poor spin on the Duensing bit)

 

[Brandon]

If im trading Gibson i want top prospects. And if we dont get them we should just keep him. I dont know why we are so against extentions for players . But i dont think we need to keep trading for volume from teams 10-20 ranked prospects. How much is getting 3of those for Gibson gonna help?

 

How about Gibson and 2B Severino for Kuira and Peralta?

[Brandon]

Or we could add Gordon instead of Severino.

 

But i like the idea of using a good prospect to get a better prospect and balancing out a trade.

 

Plus I live in Irvine where Kuira went to college so it would be nice to have that connection.

[Brandon]

And you know Twins decision makers take where I live into consideration for trades.. jk....

[tvagle]

If SF is interested in Dozier it's another chance to bundle up

 

Dozier and Gibson to the other side of the Bay for:

 

C Joey Bart 

P Sean Hjelle (most likely too much but he's one of us)

P Ray Black 

[AZTwin]

From the Giants farm system I want to make sure they include Corry and Santos

[sftwinsfan]

I think it would be kinda crazy to trade Gibson. May as well just trade Berrios too then. By the time you'd have enough decent starters to be competitive he's going to be close to free agency.  With Berrios and Gibson they have a very good 1-2 punch in the rotation.  I'd do my best to extend him.  He's athletic and should age fairly well.  The sad thing is if they trade him, everyone on here will be talking this offseason and next about spending possibly $60-100M on a Lance Lynn/Yu Darvish type starter in free agency.  Or they could just try to keep Kyle Gibson who is out pitching any of those guys. I don't believe his performance is a fluke, he's got good stuff, he just needed to figure out how to use it.  Love seeing a guy rise to the occasion as well with his best games in Yankee Stadium and Fenway.  

[jimbo92107]

"...free agent starting pitchers tend to stay away from Colorado."

 

Um, I think we've been noticing the same thing here. Given how hard it is to acquire first rate starting pitchers, why don't we keep Gibson? He has improved from middle rotation to vie for solid #2 status. If he keeps performing at this level, why get rid of him? It's not like he's 32 and tailing off. Gibson's style of pitching doesn't require high 90's heat anyway; he's thriving on deception and command. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not against trading Gibson but am reluctant to do so. If a return is to be had, it can't be A ball players. The org needs something closer to MLB. Maybe not a 2019 contributor but certainly a 2020 contributor.

[NewClearHarley]

if we trade gibby who by all accounts has been a top 20 AL SP this year, who will be use next year that projects as a top 20 AL starting pitcher to replace him? If MIL wants to give us Peralta ++ I'm down, but that aint gonna happen.

[gagu]

Only trade Gibson if the other team seriously overpays. A bird in hand.... That said, if a great offer comes, I don't care what level the returning players are at as long as the talent is there and is projectable.

[h2oface]

This team needs pitching. They will next year. And not Pineda, who is still overweight and mediocre, even if he can perform at all in his first year back from TJ. I hear all this arm-chair general managing. If that advice is followed, all that will ever happen is the team keeps trading for more prospects. And this team will constantly be doing the same thing, and not winning to the level of competing for the championship. The Twins need pitching....... at the MLB level. Not A ballers who never make it.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2018 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

I think it would be kinda crazy to trade Gibson. May as well just trade Berrios too then. By the time you'd have enough decent starters to be competitive he's going to be close to free agency.  With Berrios and Gibson they have a very good 1-2 punch in the rotation.  I'd do my best to extend him.  He's athletic and should age fairly well.  The sad thing is if they trade him, everyone on here will be talking this offseason and next about spending possibly $60-100M on a Lance Lynn/Yu Darvish type starter in free agency.  Or they could just try to keep Kyle Gibson who is out pitching any of those guys. I don't believe his performance is a fluke, he's got good stuff, he just needed to figure out how to use it.  Love seeing a guy rise to the occasion as well with his best games in Yankee Stadium and Fenway.  

 

YES!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the only way I trade Gibson is for a top 100 guy and one or two more in the team's top 20... and I have to add that someone in that haul needs to be near ML ready at a position we need such as C. 

 

Levine has every right to make it clear that we will need to be blown away. Trading Gibson is a punt on 2019, and I don't think that's a good idea. 

[Dman]

 

I think the only way I trade Gibson is for a top 100 guy and one or two more in the team's top 20... and I have to add that someone in that haul needs to be near ML ready at a position we need such as C. 

 

Levine has every right to make it clear that we will need to be blown away. Trading Gibson is a punt on 2019, and I don't think that's a good idea. 

 

 I agree. I don't think the FO wants to punt on 2019 either.  The Twins had some tough luck this year in severe regression for Sano, Buxton, losing Polanco etc.  and they still almost fought back to get in it.  If they keep the starters, and get improvements from the pen this team can compete with Cleveland next year.

 

That being said if they got a Chris Sale type offer for Gibson then take it.  We can still compete next year without him as well.