Article: Dear Twins: Don't Sell!

[Steven Buhr]

Like a lot of Twins fans, I think, I’ve been coasting a bit with my fandom. The results on the field have been disappointing.

 

Ervin Santana, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco hadn’t even been on the field much, if at all, during most of the first half of the season.

 

The expected two-team competition for the American League Central Division title quickly became no race at all, with Cleveland outpacing the pack.

 

So, I fell in line with the expectation that the Minnesota front office should and would be sellers at the July non-waiver trade deadline.

 

But a funny thing happens to me when I start to hear so many voices saying, “Sell!” in unison. I start looking for reasons to buy.Yeah, my portfolio took a hit Thursday when Facebook shares dropped almost 20%. But I didn’t sell. I’m holding onto my Facebook stock. In fact, I’m probably going to add to my existing position after letting the dust settle for a few days.

 

I think that’s what the Twins should do, too.

 

No, I don’t mean they should invest in Facebook (though it wouldn’t be the worst investment the Twins have made over the years), I mean they should hold and maybe even buy.

 

When the chorus grew so loud in support of the Twins being a seller at the deadline that there was support for not only trading players with expiring contracts and/or little expectation that they’d be part of the 2019 roster, but also for sending Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly packing, I took a step back from the cliff.

 

If so many people were that convinced it was time to not only trade spare parts, but important 2019 cogs in the machinery, I wondered if maybe it’s time to do the opposite.

 

After all, a year ago, the front office gave up and started selling about this time (though it turned out they didn’t have a ton of guys that other teams were interested in buying). As we all know, the Twins overcame that lack of faith, forcing their way into the one-and-done AL Wild Card game.

 

But this is not 2017, obviously.

 

At the end of July a year ago, Minnesota trailed Cleveland by 6 ½ games in AL Central. This year, they trail by 7 after Thursday night’s win over Boston.

 

Last year, the Royals also stood between the Twins and the top of the Division. Not so this year. If Minnesota doesn’t mount a challenge, Cleveland will stroll to the Division title.

 

A year ago, not only were the Twins well off the pace being set by Cleveland, they were going the wrong direction. They had started the month of July three games above .500, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the Indians in the Division race. They finished the month tied with Baltimore, 4 ½ games behind the Royals in the race for the second Wild Card and two games behind Seattle and Tampa.

 

Whatever momentum they had was moving them in the wrong direction so, of course, you sell.

 

But this is not 2017.

 

First of all, unlike a season ago, Minnesota will not be contending for an AL Wild Card spot.

 

A year ago, there was one very good AL team in Houston and a lot of mediocrity after that. This year, there are a pair of teams in the East and three in the West that are leaving pretty much everyone else, including the Twins (and Cleveland, for that matter), in the dust.

 

Entering July this season, the Twins at 35-44, were nine games under .500, eight games behind Cleveland in the standings and 15 ½ games back of the second WC spot.

 

That’s not ideal, I grant. They’ve gone 13-9 this month and only managed to trim one game off their deficit to the Division leaders. That being the case, nobody can be blamed for advocating that the Twins replace player surnames with “FOR SALE” on back of most players’ jerseys.

 

Unlike a year ago, however, Minnesota doesn’t need to claw their way through a crowded field in the hopes of earning a single play-in game at Yankee Stadium. They’re chasing one team and, if they should catch them, the reward is at least one full postseason series.

 

And, unlike a year ago, their momentum is moving them in the right direction, notwithstanding last weekend’s debacle in Kansas City.

 

The Twins also will face Cleveland ten times between now and the end of August. And it’s not like Minnesota has been beaten up by the Tribe this season, either. On the contrary. The Twins have won six of the nine games the two teams have completed this year.

 

Everyone seems to think this is the same Cleveland team that went to the World Series a couple years ago. It isn’t. Yes, they have three guys at the top of their batting order that are very good. You want to include Edwin Encarnacion, I’ll let you. But after that? Who are you really afraid of?

 

They have some pitching, yes. But that pitching hasn’t translated into as many wins in July as the Twins have notched and the Twins just added Ervin Santana, who didn’t look too rusty in his season debut this week.

 

Yes, the Minnesota front office could throw in the towel now. It appears that not a lot of fans would blame them. It has been a disappointing year, to this point.

 

They could get what they can for the guys with expiring contracts. Discard Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Zach Duke, even Joe Mauer if he’s inclined to approve of a deal to a contender. Probably add Jake Odorizzi to the list if you’re not of a mind to offer him arbitration for 2019. Likewise, maybe get someone interested in Santana if you don’t think you’ll pick up his $14 million club option for 2019.

 

Make way for the next round of young talent that’s stewing in Rochester and Chattanooga. Let them get their feet wet in August and September, then be ready to re-engage the battle for AL Central supremacy in 2019.

 

But is this really what we’ve come to? Baseball seasons are just four months long? If you’re a few games out of the top spot in your Division at the end of July, you pack it in and, “wait ‘til next year?”

 

I’m sure the folks running Cleveland’s club are hoping that’s what the Twins will do. If so, they can virtually coast through the final two months and prepare for the postseason.

 

I get that trading some (or all) of those players would potentially add a few pretty decent young prospects. And if the Twins’ farm system was in dire straights without much talent in the pipeline, maybe I’d go along with a fire sale right now. But that is not the case.

 

The Twins have some really good talent at every level of their minor league organization right now. Sure, you always want more because some guys with high ceilings just don’t pan out, but as much as I enjoy watching minor league baseball, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the purpose in all of this is to win at the Major League level.

 

As things stand, the Twins have a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Lynn and Odorizzi. It may not be the equal of Cleveland’s, but it ain’t bad.

 

If you think Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers or Stephen Gonsalves would perform better in the fifth spot than Odorizzi, then make that move. But do it because you think it not only will make your team better in 2019 but will also improve their chances to catch and pass Cleveland this year.

 

Or, here’s a thought – if you think you could improve your rotation, maybe trade FOR a better pitcher (ideally, one with at least another year of control left after this season), rather than selling off the ones you’ve got.

 

And please, just stop the talk about trading Kyle Gibson already. This is not a rebuild. If you really have given up on 2018, fine, but don’t give up on 2019, too.

 

With all of the problems this organization has had finding really good starting pitching, why would you trade a guy just when it looks like he’s becoming a really good starting pitcher and still has a year of team control left?

 

Just because you could get somewhat better prospects in return? They’re still prospects and you’re probably just going to hope that one of them ends up developing into a pitcher as good as Gibson.

 

As a fan base, we’ve been lulled into this never-ending routine that emphasizes acquisition and development of quality minor league talent. That’s all well and good until it takes over the organization’s mentality to the extent that they let a few games’ deficit in the standings in July keep them from even bothering to try to compete through the rest of the season.

 

I say let’s go for it!

 

What are you afraid of? If it doesn't work out, you still have all the quality young talent waiting to fill in where needed next season and so much payroll money coming off the books that you won't be able to figure out how to spend it all.

 

If you don’t take advantage of those 10 head-to-head meetings with Cleveland, there are still likely to be waiver deals to be made before the end of August. No, the returns may not be as good as they would be right now, but I’m pretty satisfied with where the Twins’ farm system sits now. I don’t need more.

 

I don’t want my baseball season to keep being four months long. I want the full six months.

 

I want to see if Santana, Buxton and Sano can overcome their personal setbacks and help turn the Twins into the kind of team nobody wants to have to face in September.

 

I want to see if this team, that was supposed to be a contender, can get some traction and do something to make Cleveland sweat a little bit. Don’t just hand them the Division. Let’s make things interesting for them.

 

That’s what competing is all about, isn’t it?

 

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

Click here to view the article

[Brandon]

We gave up. Falvine surrenders already. They give up quickly if there us a struggle.

[jtkoupal]

1. The Twins could still add pieces. They will not, however, be adding rentals. They are in no position to do that. There should be no objection to adding controllable pieces. In fact, there was a rumor just the other day from Darren Wolfson that the Twins had interest in Chris Archer.

 

2. The Indians, who improved their bullpen substantially, are a stronger team with a softer schedule the rest of the way.

 

3. A Sanó resurgence could adequately replace Escobar's production. Also, are Lynn and Odorizzi not replaceable? Both are capable pitchers and it would be more comfortable to have either rather than a kid, but it's not farfetched to think that a kid COULD be just as effective as either have been thus far.

 

4. The word was that the Twins would consider trading Gibson only if they were overwhelmed by the offer. That is the case with any player. Everyone has their price. If someone offers you $1.25 for $1, find me someone who doesn't take that.

 

5. I'm all for the fan spirit of making a run at Cleveland. Realistically, though, you can't afford to not sell high on Escobar when you are on the outside looking in. It's hard to say whether Escobar is/was in their future plans, but you have to be realistic about this year. You can't give a better team a head start and expect to make a run late. I'd of course love to see it, but realistically, given how inconsistent the team has been, you couldn't fault them for parting with expiring contracts for prospects.

 

[Monkeypaws]

Lynn can go - Gonsalves has been killing it in AAA. Get him some experience now. Addition by subtraction.

 

Duke? Why not try Mota? Mejía?

 

Dozier? Best keep him or the fans will revolt. Most Twins fans I know read the paper and don't know a hoot about fip or war or any of that stuff. Gotta still try.

 

Not so sure a qualifying offer for him would be so damaging after the season Dozier has had. Could rebound next season, or get a nice pick.

 

 

 

 

 

[blindeke]

Whoops, too late!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trading Escobar and recalling Sano in his place is exactly what this team should be doing, as much as it pains me to say (for two reasons: I don't really like giving up and Escobar may be my favorite player on the team).

[Vanimal46]

Trading Escobar and recalling Sano in his place is exactly what this team should be doing, as much as it pains me to say (for two reasons: I don't really like giving up and Escobar may be my favorite player on the team).

But really, it's an honest assessment of where this team stands. Trading pending FAs should be done... As far as other players signed for 2019 that's really selling... That's a tougher decision for guys like Gibson and Pressly.

[jimbo92107]

Trade Lynn and Odorizzi and Dozier. Bring back Sano and Buxton. Bring up Gonzo, Gordo, Wade and a few more kids. 

 

No Series this season. Let the tryouts begin. 

[Danchat]

They're clearly selling, but that doesn't mean they have to get worse. You can replace Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, and some of the others. I think they can finish around .500, but I don't see them catching the Indians, and even if they do, they're getting destroyed in the playoffs. The Twins can go ahead and keep winning, but I'd like to figure out who I want on this team in 2019 and who I don't. I want to see the Twins put together a team that can legitimately challenge the Yankees and Astros but I don't see that happening this season - going to the playoffs is cool and all, but it seems like Minnesota sports teams don't have trouble getting there, but once they do they get their butts kicked. 

 

BTW I'd hold onto Gibson and Pressly but that doesn't mean I'm not listening to trade offers. I think we need both for the 2019 season and they're not going to be replaced for cheap.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see them catching the Indians, and even if they do, they're getting destroyed in the playoffs.

I don't get this (the playoffs part). If the Twins catch the Indians, they are probably playing pretty good baseball, I don't see why they couldn't be competitive in a short series.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trading Escobar and recalling Sano in his place is exactly what this team should be doing, as much as it pains me to say (for two reasons: I don't really like giving up and Escobar may be my favorite player on the team).

Is Sano even ready? I thought we were supposed to trust the process on him.

 

Plenty of room for him to come up and DH too, if he is in fact ready. (Or DH Escobar and put Sano at 3B if you want him in the field. We didn't need to unload Escobar to do something with Sano.)

Edited July 28, 2018 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

SD Buhr, I love this article.

 

I just realized earlier today that the Twins were likely pushing Berrios back a day to face Cleveland, at home. That got me excited and looking for tickets. Gibson would be facing them too, and we'd be missing Kluber and Clevinger. Not looking past Boston, but I wanted to go into that series at full strength.

 

Very different feeling now.

 

I've spent years poring over prospect lists, I want to enjoy a wider variety of baseball fandom experiences, even if it's a long shot playoff chase.

[jokin]

 

Is Sano even ready? I thought we were supposed to trust the process on him.

Plenty of room for him to come up and DH too, if he is in fact ready. (Or DH Escobar and put Sano at 3B if you want him in the field. We didn't need to unload Escobar to do something with Sano.)

 

To me, it was pretty obvious that they changed "the plan" the day Sano was promoted to Rochester. This decision to move Escobar ASAP, and possibly Dozier's pending move, have been in the works for a little while now.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To me, it was pretty obvious that they changed "the plan" the day Sano was promoted to Rochester. This decision to move Escobar ASAP, and possibly Dozier's pending move, have been in the works for a little while now.

the guy lost 20lbs. Maybe he’s done most of the designed work. Where’s Parker with the Sano GIFs

[TheLeviathan]

This is roughly the same logic as foregoing your mortgage payment to buy lottery tickets....because that's more fun.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is roughly the same logic as foregoing your mortgage payment to buy lottery tickets....because that's more fun.

But we're talking about baseball, as fans. It is all about fun. And there's a perfectly valid, logical case that gunning for Cleveland at full strength the next two weeks is more fun than collecting more prospects.

 

Likewise, there is a valid, logical case that we can stock some more prospects who could help down the road without significantly affecting our meager chances in 2018. I just don't like one as much, personally.

 

The difference is inherently a matter of taste.

[TheLeviathan]

 

But we're talking about baseball, as fans. It is all about fun. And there's a perfectly valid, logical case that gunning for Cleveland at full strength the next two weeks is more fun than collecting more prospects.

Likewise, there is a valid, logical case that we can stock some more prospects who could help down the road without significantly affecting our meager chances in 2018. I just don't like one as much, personally.

The difference is inherently a matter of taste.

 

That's fine.  But we're judging the actions of the team and the FO...they don't (and shouldn't) make decisions based on fun or deliberate delusion about the chances of the team this year.

 

If you're mad this team isn't more fun this year, don't blame the trade deadline - blame the crappy performance of the team that got them to a 48-53 record and sell-mode.  

 

The deadline is about facing reality, choosing now to stamp your feet in anger at this season's failures is really misguided and childish.

Edited July 28, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

The deadline is about facing reality, choosing now to stamp your feet in anger at this season's failures is really misguided and childish.

I don't think SD or myself is acting in that way, and I would appreciate a more civil discussion.

[TheLeviathan]

There are absolutely posters doing exactly that.  Judging every trade negatively based on little more than "I want to win" and not putting any context into their criticism.  

 

It's ok to not like the returns on deals.  It's ok to be unhappy we're in this position.  But that civil discussion you want is also derailed by people effectively pouting about the reality of our situation.  That isn't helpful either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is Sano even ready? I thought we were supposed to trust the process on him.

Plenty of room for him to come up and DH too, if he is in fact ready. (Or DH Escobar and put Sano at 3B if you want him in the field. We didn't need to unload Escobar to do something with Sano.)

I don't know if Sano is ready or not but they seemed to be angling for this for the past week or more.

 

And unloading Escobar was the right move. His logical replacement is Sano. If they didn't feel Sano is ready again, I'd be fine with them throwing garbage at the wall for a few weeks, too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are absolutely posters doing exactly that. Judging every trade negatively based on little more than "I want to win" and not putting any context into their criticism.

 

It's ok to not like the returns on deals. It's ok to be unhappy we're in this position. But that civil discussion you want is also derailed by people effectively pouting about the reality of our situation. That isn't helpful either.

I don't think it helps to throw terms like "childish" around without that specific context. Could you please use the quote function if you want to respond to something like that specifically? I don't want the whole discussion framed on those terms.

[Danchat]

You picked a good day to write/release this article SD Buhr. Impeccable timing. 

[USAFChief]

That's fine.  But we're judging the actions of the team and the FO...they don't (and shouldn't) make decisions based on fun or deliberate delusion about the chances of the team this year.

 

If you're mad this team isn't more fun this year, don't blame the trade deadline - blame the crappy performance of the team that got them to a 48-53 record and sell-mode.  

 

The deadline is about facing reality, choosing now to stamp your feet in anger at this season's failures is really misguided and childish.

Reality is a sell off doesn’t guarantee anything about the future, but it sure torpedoes the present.

 

And mod hat on: cease and desist with name calling and characterizations of other posters.

[jkcarew]

I don't get this (the playoffs part). If the Twins catch the Indians, they are probably playing pretty good baseball, I don't see why they couldn't be competitive in a short series.

 

If the Twins catch Cleveland, they are still massively inferior to at least 2 (and probably all 3) other teams in the AL playoffs. The AL in 2018 is the opposite of a year to bet on a long shot.

 

But, more to the point, IMO, is that you have to make decisions based on the team you have, not the team you hope you have. If the team finished 10 games below 500...which is exactly what their performance over nearly 100 games points to...and you didn’t sell when you had the chance...especially the assets not under control in 2019...then the FO would be, and should be, open to massive criticism.

[USNMCPO]

We keep hearing that the trade market is a "buyer's market" right now as there are way more sellers than buyers. I think SD is on to something. In my opinion it is too late for this year to challenge Cleveland, but is a great time to buy what we need for next year and beyond. My hope is that any more trades will be about more than gaining iffy prospects 3-5 years away from MLB and more for gaining MLB or near-MLB players that would fill out our needs for the next 2-3 years.

[adorduan]

 

1. The Twins could still add pieces. They will not, however, be adding rentals. They are in no position to do that. There should be no objection to adding controllable pieces. In fact, there was a rumor just the other day from Darren Wolfson that the Twins had interest in Chris Archer.

 

2. The Indians, who improved their bullpen substantially, are a stronger team with a softer schedule the rest of the way.

 

3. A Sanó resurgence could adequately replace Escobar's production. Also, are Lynn and Odorizzi not replaceable? Both are capable pitchers and it would be more comfortable to have either rather than a kid, but it's not farfetched to think that a kid COULD be just as effective as either have been thus far.

 

4. The word was that the Twins would consider trading Gibson only if they were overwhelmed by the offer. That is the case with any player. Everyone has their price. If someone offers you $1.25 for $1, find me someone who doesn't take that.

 

5. I'm all for the fan spirit of making a run at Cleveland. Realistically, though, you can't afford to not sell high on Escobar when you are on the outside looking in. It's hard to say whether Escobar is/was in their future plans, but you have to be realistic about this year. You can't give a better team a head start and expect to make a run late. I'd of course love to see it, but realistically, given how inconsistent the team has been, you couldn't fault them for parting with expiring contracts for prospects.

Sure, but that's not really the offer.  It's possibly $1.25 3-5 years from now, or it could be $0 3-5 years from now.  Big difference form your instant profit scenario.....

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure, but that's not really the offer.  It's possibly $1.25 3-5 years from now, or it could be $0 3-5 years from now.  Big difference form your instant profit scenario.....

 

Well, it's also possibly $2 or $3.  Just to keep things fair in that analysis.

 

It's also worth noting that, in this scenario, eventually your $1 will turn into $0 all on it's own.

[Twodogs]

If the Twins catch Cleveland, they are still massively inferior to at least 2 (and probably all 3) other teams in the AL playoffs.

Well I believe that the Twins have winning records against Boston, Cleveland and Houston so far this year?? They've just stunk against KC, Detroit, and the White Sox??

[Twodogs]

We keep hearing that the trade market is a "buyer's market" right now as there are way more sellers than buyers. I think SD is on to something. In my opinion it is too late for this year to challenge Cleveland, but is a great time to buy what we need for next year and beyond. My hope is that any more trades will be about more than gaining iffy prospects 3-5 years away from MLB and more for gaining MLB or near-MLB players that would fill out our needs for the next 2-3 years.

This actually does make some sense?? Especially if you are looking to keep your core intact. If you were going to unload Rosario and Sano, etc.... Then no it makes no sense. But if you are keeping the core together then adding pieces that would make the club stronger next year would make sense since it's a buyer's market. But Escobar has really no starting spot on the Twins team if they have all of Sano, Polanco and Dozier in the infield?? So trading him sucks but it was probably necessary so as to give Sano full reign at 3B.

[hugelycat]

 

You picked a good day to write/release this article SD Buhr. Impeccable timing. 

 

I hope SD Buhr is working on his next article, "Dear Twins: Don't give us all free 2019 season tickets!"