Article: MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

[IndianaTwin]

 

FYI, this comes across as pretty rude. I did "half the work"? Did you do any?

 

% of starts at 100-119 pitches:

 

2008 AL 43%, Blackburn 15%

2009 AL 45%, Blackburn 36%

2010 AL 51%, Blackburn 23%

2011 AL 49%, Blackburn 31%

2012 AL 44%, Blackburn 16%

 

But you may have a bright future in politics.

 

Spycake, if you found this easily, I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of starts throughout the league were in this range the past few years. The curiosity has nothing to do with Blackburn -- just wondering if the number has dropped as precipitously as it seems, or if it just seems that way because short starts are getting more attention.  

[terrydactyls]

Not a chance he takes that. If he keeps it up then this is the only shot at a good FA deal he'll ever get, so I doubt he settles for a team-friendly contract. Top free agents never get team options anyways, especially on short deals. He'll get 3-4 years guaranteed, easily. Too bad for him he missed out on the really big FA deals fromi 5+ years ago, so I doubt he gets more than that.

 

Do you really feel sorry for someone who "only" gets offered $40 to $50 million dollars for just three years of playing a game?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spycake, if you found this easily, I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of starts throughout the league were in this range the past few years. The curiosity has nothing to do with Blackburn -- just wondering if the number has dropped as precipitously as it seems, or if it just seems that way because short starts are getting more attention.  

No problem! I just got it from B-Ref's league starting pitching page, see the column "100-119":

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-starter-pitching.shtml

 

It has definitely been falling the last couple years.

 

2013: 46%

2014: 45%

2015: 42%

2016: 38%

2017: 34%

2018: 30%

 

Although part of this is also the new "opener" / "bullpenning" strategy -- relievers starting games are guaranteed to fall short of 100 pitches. Tampa Bay, for example is down to 21% from last year's 47% -- although even putting them at last year's rate would only bump the 2018 overall league rate up to 31.5%. Not sure if any other team is doing it nearly as much as Tampa.

 

Also of note: Gibson's start last night was just the fifth 120+ pitch start in the entire AL this season. The NL also has 5 such starts in 2018. (2017, the AL also had 5, the NL had 13.)

[USNMCPO]

Sure am glad that Gibby went eight innings because the designated snooze inducer Lance Lynn starts tonight and we will need the full bullpen after he throws 90 pitches in the first two innings.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you gut your team every year you think your not a contender aren't you just starting over all the time? You've got to build with something and in bball there is no better building block than an established starter.

 

Except I never said gut your team every year.......no place. And not on this thread. I'm happy to have a debate, but let's debate what is actually typed.

 

If they keep him, they need to find:

 

1B, DH, 2B, C, and probably 2-4 RPs. 

 

If their plan is to spend the money and prospects to fill in the holes, then keep him (as I said in the quote you quoted -  it is about if you are going to compete next year or not realistically).

[USAFChief]

 

Except I never said gut your team every year.......no place. And not on this thread. I'm happy to have a debate, but let's debate what is actually typed.

 

If they keep him, they need to find:

 

1B, DH, 2B, C, and probably 2-4 RPs. 

 

If their plan is to spend the money and prospects to fill in the holes, then keep him (as I said in the quote you quoted -  it is about if you are going to compete next year or not realistically).

And if you trade him, add "quality starter" to that list.

 

Also...

 

You did ask 'How else do you get better?'

 

There are lots of ways to get better that don't include trading off your best players for minor leaguers.

 

For one thing, you could be trading your minor leaguers for some other team's best players.

 

That's in addition to internal promotions, improved play from players you already have, waiver wire pickups, and free agents.

 

 

[Halsey Hall]

I had a hunch this spring Gibson was going to have a solid year, and he has. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

And if you trade him, add "quality starter" to that list.

 

Also...

 

You did ask 'How else do you get better?'

 

There are lots of ways to get better that don't include trading off your best players for minor leaguers.

 

For one thing, you could be trading your minor leaguers for some other team's best players.

 

That's in addition to internal promotions, improved play from players you already have, waiver wire pickups, and free agents.

'

As you know, I've been arguing to pick a path.....

 

either add MLB talent, or add more high ceiling minor league players....

 

But don't ride the middle.

 

So, sure, I'm happy to trade for Realmuto or a legit OF/DH/1B type.....but if they don't bring in outside talent, they are not, imo, good enough to compete with NYY, BOS, Houston, a fully healthy LAA, and probably not CLE either.

 

So, pick a path. 

 

And, yes, you kind of have to pick it now......because keeping Gibson is picking that path (somewhat....as his value will be less in the off season).

 

So, great, I agree, if you are going to compete, then trade for some players now or in the off season.

 

But, pick a path.

[Mike Sixel]

After reading an Athletic article glowing about Rosario.....and his base running....I had doubts.

 

but, man, of the qualified hitters on FG's leaderboard, he is third overall on their baserunning rankings.....

 

huh. Kind of the "halo" effect in reverse, where it is so easy to remember the bad plays, I guess.

 

Good on him. 

 

Actually, other than 2017, he's been VERY GOOD on the basepaths.

[drivlikejehu]

 

After reading an Athletic article glowing about Rosario.....and his base running....I had doubts.

 

but, man, of the qualified hitters on FG's leaderboard, he is third overall on their baserunning rankings.....

 

huh. Kind of the "halo" effect in reverse, where it is so easy to remember the bad plays, I guess.

 

Good on him. 

 

Actually, other than 2017, he's been VERY GOOD on the basepaths.

 

I was thinking about this - if a player is aggressive on the basepaths, it probably makes sense that the aggression will occasionally backfire even if overall the impact is positive (e.g., if you try for the extra base every time your chance of making it is 90%, that's worth the risk but does result in getting thrown out sometimes).

[Mike Sixel]

How about Gibson and Pressley and a random minor leaguer to ATL for Austin Riley and one of their AA pitchers (Toussant or Wright).

 

Sano moves to 1B next year, Riley is your 3B, and Toussant/Wright is a starter by mid year in MN.

[mickeymental]

the header (gibby the great) reminds me of the old leonard cohen story: it was 1984, leonard's career was in a lull and cbs wouldn't give u.s. release to his "various positions" album (the one with "hallelujah" and "dance me to the end of love"). so leonard went to the office of walter yetnikoff, the head of cbs records, to find out why. "we know you're great, leonard," yetnikoff said. "we just don't know if you're any good."

[Blake]

 

I’d rather have 1.4 years of Gibson. Easily.

I think the only reason Gibson is traded, short of a AJ Pierzynksi type of haul, is the FO doesn't believe the Twins will compete next year.

[Blake]

Just listened to the Gibson interview and it was rather humorous, Gibson says he asked Molitor for one base runner and he'd go out again.

 

What a crazy game.

[Han Joelo]

 

the header (gibby the great) reminds me of the old leonard cohen story: it was 1984, leonard's career was in a lull and cbs wouldn't give u.s. release to his "various positions" album (the one with "hallelujah" and "dance me to the end of love"). so leonard went to the office of walter yetnikoff, the head of cbs records, to find out why. "we know you're great, leonard," yetnikoff said. "we just don't know if you're any good."

Kudos for the random Cohen story.  What a songwriter.  Every time someone shares yet another version of Hallelujah, I have to make sure they know who wrote and recorded that song...and also query if they've actually listened to any of the lyrics besides the title word.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. (One poster has even called him 32 on this thread, and someone that the turnaround started in September, and not July! No need to not be accurate). But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years. 

We all root for guys that are drafted by the Twins. There's more invested from a fan perspective, and players are tracked through the minors. There's always hype surrounding high draft picks, and with that comes hope that they'll deliver on that promise. I get all of that, but I think it's tainting the view some have of Gibson, and IMO it's certainly a driving force for this call to extend him right now. If Gibson wasn't a product of the minor league system, and the Twins had traded for him last offseason, how hard would anybody be pushing for an extension?

 

This is splitting hairs here but Gibson's ERA was higher exiting last July than it was upon entry. He turned in a few duds through mid August too. He didn't really start pitching well until late August, so labeling it as one good month of 17' isn't all that inaccurate. 

 

You're right, guys figure it out at different times. Late development happens: Arrieta, Turner, Dickey, you can throw Bautista on that list, and I'm sure there are more if we spend 5 mins digging, but those guys are the exception that prove the rule. For every Jake Arrieta how many guys pop up for a brief period then fizzle back to previous production levels? Can this version of Gibson be who he is for the next few seasons? Sure, but is that a gamble I want to take by extending him right now? Not a chance. If some club feels he's worth the risk and makes a good offer then the Twins should happily make that deal. If not then they have Gibson for 19' and they can use some of that $$ they'll hoard this offseason to bring him back as a FA. 

 

 

[gocgo]

I'm not in favor of trading Gibby for prospects.  At this point, I think you know what you have in Gibson...a pretty quality MLB pitcher (tough to run on, smart, seasoned).  Prospects are prospects....they often don't pan out at an MLB level.  We've seen sure things turn into fools gold over and over and over again.  I think you extend Gibson as he is a key part of the future.

[KirbyDome89]

 

If the hardcore fans are split on that move, just think what the reaction would be like from the casual fans. I'm pretty confident this organization will never do anything that controversial. 

So expect aiming for mediocrity to continue as the status quo?

[USAFChief]

 

We all root for guys that are drafted by the Twins. There's more invested from a fan perspective, and players are tracked through the minors. There's always hype surrounding high draft picks, and with that comes hope that they'll deliver on that promise. I get all of that, but I think it's tainting the view some have of Gibson, and IMO it's certainly a driving force for this call to extend him right now. If Gibson wasn't a product of the minor league system, and the Twins had traded for him last offseason, how hard would anybody be pushing for an extension?

 

This is splitting hairs here but Gibson's ERA was higher exiting last July than it was upon entry. He turned in a few duds through mid August too. He didn't really start pitching well until late August, so labeling it as one good month of 17' isn't all that inaccurate. 

 

You're right, guys figure it out at different times. Late development happens: Arrieta, Turner, Dickey, you can throw Bautista on that list, and I'm sure there are more if we spend 5 mins digging, but those guys are the exception that prove the rule. For every Jake Arrieta how many guys pop up for a brief period then fizzle back to previous production levels? Can this version of Gibson be who he is for the next few seasons? Sure, but is that a gamble I want to take by extending him right now? Not a chance. If some club feels he's worth the risk and makes a good offer then the Twins should happily make that deal. If not then they have Gibson for 19' and they can use some of that $$ they'll hoard this offseason to bring him back as a FA. 

I think it's inaccurate and misleading.

 

Over the past 365 days, Gibson has thrown 192 innings, 185 K's, a 3.46 ERA, and a 1.227 WHIP.

 

He might fall back, but he's been legitimately, consistently good over the past year. Every pitcher throws a dud once in a while.

[Tom Froemming]

 

So expect aiming for mediocrity to continue as the status quo?

Precisely. This is how we base ball.

[Loosey]

 

The Twins will not get a return that will be better in 2019 than Gibson. I’m 99 percent confident in that. I want the Twins to do everything in their power to compete not later than 2019.

So I don’t care if some team offers a top prospect. That guy will be in A ball, or lower, and I’m not interested.

I'm with you.  I think this team is better in 2019 with Gibson than with whomever they get in a trade (which is likely a minor league prospect)

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm with you.  I think this team is better in 2019 with Gibson than with whomever they get in a trade (which is likely a minor league prospect)

 

I don't think anyone disagree with the fact they'll be better in 19 with Gibson than a minor league player.....I think some disagree they'll be competitive next year....I'm firmly on the fence, since I don't know their plans.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I think it's inaccurate and misleading.

 

Over the past 365 days, Gibson has thrown 192 innings, 185 K's, a 3.46 ERA, and a 1.227 WHIP.

 

He might fall back, but he's been legitimately, consistently good over the past year. Every pitcher throws a dud once in a while.

I'm not ragging on how he's pitched this season.

 

I'm not sure why we need to lump in a number of poor starts through July and August with his September starts & this season. His ERA entering his August 22nd start last season was essentially the same as when he took the mound July 4th. That isn't inaccurate and I'm not sure what about it is misleading. He wasn't pitching at the level he is now during that stretch. It doesn't take anything away from what he's doing now to recognize that. 

[Loosey]

 

I don't think anyone disagree with the fact they'll be better in 19 with Gibson than a minor league player.....I think some disagree they'll be competitive next year....I'm firmly on the fence, since I don't know their plans.

I think they are competitive next year.  Almost everything that could have gone wrong this year has gone wrong, with very little unexpected success stories happening. . . . and they still are "only" 7 games out at the deadline.

 

On July 27, 2019 add 10 wins to where they are today and you have a 58-43 team.  It sounds like a lot, but I think that is something they can do.  They are better than their record and have played awful over stretches. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think they are competitive next year.  Almost everything that could have gone wrong this year has gone wrong, with very little unexpected success stories happening. . . . and they still are "only" 7 games out at the deadline.

 

On July 27, 2019 add 10 wins to where they are today and you have a 58-43 team.  It sounds like a lot, but I think that is something they can do.  They are better than their record and have played awful over stretches. 

 

Rosario and Escobar and Berrios and Gibson have been about as good as they can be, so I'm not sure nothing has gone better than expected. As for injuries, they are below median in the league for WAR lost to injuries.

 

they have 1 SP that has missed any real time, that is remarkably healthy. 

[mngopherguy]

 

I would be inclined to keep Gibson, but I would not mind a 3 team trade where:

 

1.  the Yankees or Red Sox get Gibson,

 

2. the Twins get Realmuto and

 

3. the Marlins get top prospects from the Twins and from the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Gibson's effectiveness against both the Yankees and Red Sox this year might help create a bidding war.

 

Interesting outside the box trade, but I think I'd want some pitching coming back even at a lower level to accept this.  

 

[Platoon]

'

As you know, I've been arguing to pick a path.....

 

either add MLB talent, or add more high ceiling minor league players....

 

But don't ride the middle.

 

So, sure, I'm happy to trade for Realmuto or a legit OF/DH/1B type.....but if they don't bring in outside talent, they are not, imo, good enough to compete with NYY, BOS, Houston, a fully healthy LAA, and probably not CLE either.

 

So, pick a path. 

 

And, yes, you kind of have to pick it now......because keeping Gibson is picking that path (somewhat....as his value will be less in the off season).

 

So, great, I agree, if you are going to compete, then trade for some players now or in the off season.

 

But, pick a path.

This. A path. There is an old Cajun joke about a guy who gets stuck in a tree at night with a bobcat. He wants his buddy to shoot, but his buddy can't tell what he would hit in the dark. The guy in the tree says at this point I don't care, just shoot. . That's the Twins today, do something. I don't care if it's wrong, just do something. I want it to be right, but not doing anything guarantees nothing good can happen. We are stuck in the middle. I am sick of the Bobby Wilsons, LaMares, Motters, and all the other waiver wire pickups. We may need t shirts! PICK A PATH.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm not sure what 'shopping him hard' really means because no other clubs are going to change their interest in Gibson due to lobbying from Falvey and Levine. The other clubs either want Gibson or they don't, and they are either willing to offer significant value or they aren't. 

 

If someone wants Gibson enough to make a tempting offer, the Twins are going to get the message. Undoubtedly they've been hearing from other clubs for a while now. He's pitching at a different level than most of the other options out there . . . but even rich teams are very reluctant to give up solid prospects.

 

Between the deals for Soria, Oh, and Happ, not a single prospect changed hands that would be top 30 in the Twins system, per Fangraph's rankings. Gibson is considerably more valuable than any of those three, of course, but top 30 is a pretty low bar.

 

Well, from those old leaks from Houston, I think you have to do more than field calls.  Teams also need to call to start talks as a seller.  I think making a deadline deal needs to work from both directions and not just about waiting for it to land in your lap.

[Doctor Wu]

Normally, I don't pay much attention to --- or at least give much importance to it --- a pitcher's won-loss record, but I was shocked to notice that this was only win number 5 for Kyle Gibson this year. As good as he's pitched, that's pretty darn surprising.