Article: MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

[Jham]

I think reason the extension to Hughes is considered rushed is the team still had what two more years of control on a super team friendly deal. I'm not sure I would extend Gibby this year I would wait to see him continue this next year but then aggressively extend him by a year from now. I definitely don't trade him.

Twins don't really ever talk contracts mid season. And players rarely sign extensions 2 months from free agency. An extension happens this of season or never. He's a number 1 pick with serious success in the minors who struggles as a sinker pitcher in the launch angle revolution but reinvented himself as a strike out guy. He's got 2 pitches that are among baseballs most swung and missed. Hint: neither are the 2 seamer he once relied on.

 

It is doubtful he'll be viewed as 1 of baseball's best starters in terms of return. I'd extend this off-season if it can be reasonably done. It's hard for me to imagine wining a playoff series in the next couple years without "good Gibby" playing a role.

[Tom Froemming]

 

 I often feel like they are like the Millennium Falcon.  While often mistaken for a hunk of junk, and frequently broke down, when she's right, she's still the fastest ship in the galaxy.

HA! This is great! And the hyperdrive never works until that exact moment they need it to kick in.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Why is the starting pitcher still TBA for Sunday? It's Berrios, right?

Could be Mejia, he's still on the roster, but I just go with whatever's officially listed on MLB.com (which is still TBD).

[Doomtints]

According to @baseball_ref Kyle Gibson is the first #MNTwins pitcher to throw at least 120 pitches in a game since Nick Blackburn on May 24, 2011. Blackburn threw 127 in a complete game win that day against Seattle.

 

Gardy loved to keep Blackburn in for 100+ pitch games. It didn't end well.

[Twodogs]

Because the trade could make the team better? He's the best trade chip they have?

Actually wouldn't the best trade chip probably be Jose Berrios, probably followed by Royce Lewis?? I mean they could get a load of stuff for those guys?

[Tom Froemming]

As for Gibson, I think there's less than a 10 percent chance they trade him. If the hardcore fans are split on that move, just think what the reaction would be like from the casual fans. I'm pretty confident this organization will never do anything that controversial. 

 

I'd certainly be listening to offers, which I'm sure the Twins are. The last thing I'd be thinking about right now is trying to sign Gibson to an extension. No need to go there right now, and there are several other players I'd approach about an extension first.

[Puckett34]

 

Help me out here, assuming Gibson has finally broken the code, why in the world would we want to trade him?

Sell high I would assume.    Not that I'm advocating for it, but it's probably the thought process.

[Number3]

Amazes me that this thread, after winning 4 straight from Jays and Red Sox, quickly evolves into whether or not the Twins should trade Gibson or whomever. Right! Trade a pitcher who you have stayed with all these years, who has always had good "stuff" and is just now finding himself at age 30.

Just go back out there tonight and try to win another game. Even splitting the series at Boston is fine; anything better is great. Then guess who comes to Target. Forget trades and just play ball. Too many vicarious GMs on this board.

[lukeduke1980]

Personally I've sat through too many classic Gibby starts to not want to enjoy the fruit of his development.  I have to think the Twins brass think the same way - good developed pitching is such a premium.

[Vanimal46]

If a player warrants 5 pages of discussion in less than 12 hours, that's the kind of player other teams want.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why not a three year deal; even with a team option for that third year.  

 

Would you take that if you were Gibson?

[Tibs]

1. Stop playing Bobby Wilson over Mitch Garver.

 

2. I'm not trading Kyle Gibson right now unless there is a top 50 prospect and another top 100 prospect included. Twins need him and there aren't a lot of available SP right now

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sell high I would assume.    Not that I'm advocating for it, but it's probably the thought process.

 

The danger in this is always selling, and I don't think the team is in the place to do that at the moment.

 

The problem with this is that in Gibson's case, I doubt the return is much worse next year at this time if he keeps on doing it. His track record doesn't work in our favor in this case. Another year of similar results could increase the return, as he would be without question one of the most coveted pitchers on the market if we do bad in 2019 again.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Max Scherzer is 34. Justin Verlander is 35. Both are top ten bWAR for pitchers in 2018. Pitchers don’t lose it as fast as position players. This is well known. Especially guys that aren’t overly reliant on velocity. Gibson can easily maintain his effectiveness for 4-5 more years.

 

Gibson has never maintained effectiveness for more than 1 year to this point.  Maybe he's a different guy, but my post was about how large the risk is in investing in him.  

 

If you get low-balled....keep him.  That's absolutely an option.  This team has pitching in AAA that should be in the rotation next year and payroll flexibility.  If someone wants to boost their rotation and pays the price, I'd be listening.

[Platoon]

I think you just can't say that Gibson "should" be dealt, or "can't" be dealt. Everything should be in the table, if for no other reason it helps set a benchmark for other deals. I would trade Gibson for a young MLB ready catcher if the opportunity presented itself. It's an orginisational black hole. But in saying that the thought lingers that if Castro comes back, and with a knee injury that's an if, and Molitor remains in place, any young catcher is only going to get day games after night games. So maybe keeping Wilson is not such a bad idea after all?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Few upcoming free agent starters are significantly younger, and the Twins would get some kind of discount by assuming the risk of the extension (i.e., that Gibson doesn't pitch well in 2019). Also, the Twins have tons of near-term payroll capacity and there's zero chance they'd use it all up with free agent signings and/or extensions for guys like Berrios and Rosario.

 

The main reason I'm against trading Gibson though is 2019 . . . the Twins play in a bad division and absolutely should be able to compete. 

 

Those are all fair points and why I am not advocating "sell Gibson at all costs for the best return" - there are guys on this team I would say that about, but not him.

 

I would shop Gibson hard, but I'm content to keep him.  What I'm not content with is the mentality that we have to keep him.  The flexibility you talk about, coupled with young starters we have that should be in the rotation next year, are why I'm willing to explore this aggressively.

[VATwinsFan]

In other news, how about that Mitch Garver??

[Puckett34]

 

The danger in this is always selling, and I don't think the team is in the place to do that at the moment.

 

The problem with this is that in Gibson's case, I doubt the return is much worse next year at this time if he keeps on doing it. His track record doesn't work in our favor in this case. Another year of similar results could increase the return, as he would be without question one of the most coveted pitchers on the market if we do bad in 2019 again.

Total agreement.     Like I said, I don't think they should trade him.     Nor do I think they will. 

 

But I'm also in the camp (probably alone) to wait and sell anybody until after the non-waiver deadline.     There is too many games left with Cleveland in August.     I need to stop letting hope creep in.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Better when? If they are certain the trade makes them a better team in 2019, I am all in. If not, I would keep Gibson. Too much can happen to prospects whose prime is 4-5 years away.

This. Yes, we could probably add overall value to the franchise by trading him but improving our position for the postseason for the next two seasons should be the goal. It's doubtful that we could accomplish that goal by trading Gibson because any team wanting him has the same goal, and they will want to keep players who are at that stage of development.

[Puckett34]

 

HA! This is great! And the hyperdrive never works until that exact moment they need it to kick in.

So....August?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Could be Mejia, he's still on the roster, but I just go with whatever's officially listed on MLB.com (which is still TBD).

Oh yeah, forgot about Mejia.

 

I guess they might want to push Berrios back a day to face Cleveland.

 

By the same token, it looks like we will miss Kluber and Clevinger, although we'll probably get Bauer and Carrasco (and Bieber?).

[Dman]

If Gibson pitches this well again next year he will be gone in 2020 anyway.  Boston, LA or NY will out bid us in FA in years or dollars or both.  So if the return is decent then trading as painful as it might be for 2019 might be the only way to get a good return on our investment in Gibson.  

 

We always complain on this board that we never sell high.  This is why.  Once someone does well we never want to trade them anyway.   If he gets injured or doesn't perform well next year I hope I don't hear from the people who wanted to keep him about how the Twins never sell high.

 

I agree that Gibson gives us the best chance in 2019 and we could have the best Twins rotation in a long, long time, but Sano and Buxton have to come back and be good players to make the whole thing work and they need a really good off-season to fill holes.

 

I guess it comes down to if you want to play for 2019 or build a stronger future.  If the return is strong I would trade him.  If not then you have to keep him.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Dman

[Han Joelo]

 

Just change the last part to "whenever Fernando Rodney is pitching with a one run lead."

 

Speaking of one-runs--did you know the Twins lead the majors in blown saves with 20?  Also, if the last series was a home series, their record in one-run games would have improved.  Instead, since they were able to pile on all six runs, the Pythagorean record improved. Anyhoo... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gardy loved to keep Blackburn in for 100+ pitch games. It didn't end well.

In 2008, Blackburn only reached 100 pitches 5 out of 33 starts, none more than 108. Only one looks particularly taxing -- 102 pitches for 4.2 innings against the Yankees.

 

In 2009, it was 12 out of 33, but it's not like he was laboring in them -- he never topped 111 pitches that year, he threw at least 6 innings in all of his 100 pitch starts, and he threw at least 7 innings in 8 of those 12 too. (Twice he went the distance with 107 and 109 pitches.) Spread out as well -- no more than 2 in any single month.

 

2010 was when Blackburn first started struggling -- 5.42 ERA -- but he was hardly overworked. 6 starts out of 26 with 100+ pitches, none greater than 110, and all of those pitching into at least the 7th inning.

 

2011, the 127 pitch complete game was the outlier. No others greater than 110. 9 out of 26 starts at 100+. He did have 4 of them in May, but none appeared too taxing (pitching into the 7th twice, the 8th once, and the complete game).

 

Very difficult to pin his downfall on overuse.

[Doomtints]

 

In 2008, Blackburn only reached 100 pitches 5 out of 33 starts, none more than 108. Only one looks particularly taxing -- 102 pitches for 4.2 innings against the Yankees.

 

In 2009, it was 12 out of 33, but it's not like he was laboring in them -- he never topped 111 pitches that year, he threw at least 6 innings in all of his 100 pitch starts, and he threw at least 7 innings in 8 of those 12 too. (Twice he went the distance with 107 and 109 pitches.) Spread out as well -- no more than 2 in any single month.

 

2010 was when Blackburn first started struggling -- 5.42 ERA -- but he was hardly overworked. 6 starts out of 26 with 100+ pitches, none greater than 110, and all of those pitching into at least the 7th inning.

 

2011, the 127 pitch complete game was the outlier. No others greater than 110. 9 out of 26 starts at 100+. He did have 4 of them in May, but none appeared too taxing (pitching into the 7th twice, the 8th once, and the complete game).

 

Very difficult to pin his downfall on overuse.

 

You did half the work. Now compare that workload to some other pitchers. And be fair -- don't cherry pick hall of famers or Cy Young candidates.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Doomtints

[Taildragger8791]

 

Would you take that if you were Gibson?

 

Not a chance he takes that. If he keeps it up then this is the only shot at a good FA deal he'll ever get, so I doubt he settles for a team-friendly contract. Top free agents never get team options anyways, especially on short deals. He'll get 3-4 years guaranteed, easily. Too bad for him he missed out on the really big FA deals from 5+ years ago, so I doubt he gets more than that.

[twinssouth]

Gibby showed guts and poise last night. Already on a high pitch count, he wanted that 8th inning, went out and had a quick 1,2,3. Then came Rodney, enuff said. How about we keep Gibby and trade Rodney for bag of balls and 2 Disney tickets

[AceWrigley]

Need to market a new health supplement called FRE. Some type of calming, blood pressure lowering, mellowing pills. Take 2 after the 8th and sit back for the ride.

 

Maybe having Rodney as your closer prepares you more for pressure-filled games.

 

Tom, you coined a winner, "Gibby The Great". May it stick.

 

I live in New England. I love when the Twins beat the Sox (well, white or red really).

 

Go Twins.

Edited July 27, 2018 by AceWrigley

[drivlikejehu]

 

Those are all fair points and why I am not advocating "sell Gibson at all costs for the best return" - there are guys on this team I would say that about, but not him.

 

I would shop Gibson hard, but I'm content to keep him.  What I'm not content with is the mentality that we have to keep him.  The flexibility you talk about, coupled with young starters we have that should be in the rotation next year, are why I'm willing to explore this aggressively.

 

I'm not sure what 'shopping him hard' really means because no other clubs are going to change their interest in Gibson due to lobbying from Falvey and Levine. The other clubs either want Gibson or they don't, and they are either willing to offer significant value or they aren't. 

 

If someone wants Gibson enough to make a tempting offer, the Twins are going to get the message. Undoubtedly they've been hearing from other clubs for a while now. He's pitching at a different level than most of the other options out there . . . but even rich teams are very reluctant to give up solid prospects.

 

Between the deals for Soria, Oh, and Happ, not a single prospect changed hands that would be top 30 in the Twins system, per Fangraph's rankings. Gibson is considerably more valuable than any of those three, of course, but top 30 is a pretty low bar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You did half the work. Now compare that workload to some other pitchers. And be fair -- don't cherry pick hall of famers or Cy Young candidates.

FYI, this comes across as pretty rude. I did "half the work"? Did you do any?

 

% of starts at 100-119 pitches:

 

2008 AL 43%, Blackburn 15%

2009 AL 45%, Blackburn 36%

2010 AL 51%, Blackburn 23%

2011 AL 49%, Blackburn 31%

2012 AL 44%, Blackburn 16%

 

But you may have a bright future in politics.