Article: MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

[launchingthrees]

 

Best case return: They get a player who might one day be as good as he is right now. Pass. 

 

Obviously that's not the best case return.  I don't think you really believe that. 

[DocBauer]

It would be so totally foolish to trade Gibson. To all the Gibson doubters.... I say it for him...... "Bite Me."

 

I was a Gibson believer and apologist for a time. But even I began to sour in 2017 at one point.

 

I have said this time and again, but I will repeat myself yet another time. Virtually everyone wanted him up early in 2013 because he was pitching well in the minors despite it being his first season back from TJ surgery. He didn't look good when he came up. In 2014, he had a really solid first full season and missed rookie status by an inning and 1/3. Despite a worse W-L record, his 2015 was better in every category across the board. He stunk in 2016, as did the entire team. And the first half of 2017 was no better, to be sure.

 

The perception of Gibson is NOT based on his 2014 or 2015 seasons, it's based on hope when he was selected and potential/hope to be a front line starter for a pitching starved team. What we are seeing is the maturation of a quality arm who actually pitched well his first couple of seasons, then hit a wall, for whatever reason, and then figured it out.

 

This is no SSS folks. He's been pitching like this since late July last season. I wrote an article about a month ago how Berrios may be the budding ACE of the staff, but how close Gibson was to joining him as a top of the rotation starter.

 

Did you watch the game? I missed most of it. But I caught the last few innings. I was pumped after the first out in the 8th when he asked for the ball to keep going.

 

To trade this guy would be a huge mistake! No matter how good Romero may be...and he could potentially be the Twins 1-3 starter by mid season 2019...Berrios and Gibson are our 1-2 starters to begin 2019. And I feel really good about that!

[Aerodeliria]

One thing I've always liked about Gibson is that he can shut down anybody anywhere when he's good. He doesn't seem to freak out that we are playing Boston in Fenway, just like he didn't freak out when he shut down the Yankees earlier in the year in Yankee Stadium. Sure, he can also be the guy who loses on occasion to the KC Royals, but it does give the team some confidence that a team like Boston can be beat in their own backyard.

[DocBauer]

Which Gibson, 13'-17' or 2018? 

 

I agree that whatever the Twins get back in a trade won't have near the impact in 19' that Gibson would if he builds off of this season, but you're also taking a pretty serious leap of faith that this is the pitcher Gibson is going to be for the next 1.4 years.

 

Not being argumentative nor mean, but look up the numbers.

 

He missed a season to TJ surgery. 2013 was his first season back, and he kinda stunk when promoted to finish the year. As a rookie, probably getting tired, his numbers were still better than Berrios's initial introduction.

 

As I just re-stated in this same thread, look at his first two full years. Then look at the growth and transformation we are seeing. I'd prefer 3 years, but could deal with 4. He's only 30yo. He and Berrios, along with Romero and a couple others, could lead this staff for the next few years.

 

If I'm another team, I'm asking about Gibson. If I'm the Twins, I hang up the phone.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Definitely a Gibson doubter. Diversity is a great thing.

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated. 

[glunn]

I would be inclined to keep Gibson, but I would not mind a 3 team trade where:

 

1.  the Yankees or Red Sox get Gibson,

 

2. the Twins get Realmuto and

 

3. the Marlins get top prospects from the Twins and from the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Gibson's effectiveness against both the Yankees and Red Sox this year might help create a bidding war.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Not being argumentative nor mean, but look up the numbers. He missed a season to TJ surgery. 2013 was his first season back, and he kinda stunk when promoted to finish the year. As a rookie, probably getting tired, his numbers were still better than Berrios's initial introduction. As I just re-stated in this same thread, look at his first two full years. Then look at the growth and transformation we are seeing. I'd prefer 3 years, but could deal with 4. He's only 30yo. He and Berrios, along with Romero and a couple others, could lead this staff for the next few years. If I'm another team, I'm asking about Gibson. If I'm the Twins, I hang up the phone.

I'm not sure what's accomplished by comparing Berrios' debut to Gibson's. Gibson may have had a less rocky intro but those two aren't even in the same stratosphere in terms of where they went from that point. 

 

I'm definitely in favor of looking up the numbers, but shouldn't we be including all of them? If we're blaming his early struggles on recovery, fatigue, and being a rookie then what's the explanation for how awful he was in 16' and 17'? You're disregarding a lot of really bad pitching to say that 15' + this season + a handful of starts at the end of last year are the "real," Gibson, and that's who he'll be going forward.

 

That's kind of why I'm making the point about being cautious with an extension, especially when they can wait at least another year. There's no f****** way I'm handing Gibson an extension that ends at age 35.  

 

 

[Roaddog]

His slider was really biting tonight.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I don’t get why a gamethread after a fantastic victory has turned into a lengthy trade / quality debate over Kyle Gibson. But it has, so I will say this: I would hate for the Twins to trade Gibson, and think it would be a terrible move for the organization, regardless of where they are, what they need, and what the return is. The Twins have weathered a lot of rough history with Gibson, and they are now reaping the rewards of that perserverence. Let’s just enjoy the great performance by Gibson - four straight, and only five under .500.

[h2oface]

 

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated. 

 

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. (One poster has even called him 32 on this thread, and someone that the turnaround started in September, and not July! No need to not be accurate). But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by h2oface

[wabene]

Because he's signed for one more year. It really depends on if you think they are contenders next year or not.

If you gut your team every year you think your not a contender aren't you just starting over all the time? You've got to build with something and in bball there is no better building block than an established starter.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yup. I have watched him his whole Twins' career, of course. I have always liked him, and was disheartened by his struggles. Jake Arrieta didn't look that good for the first 4 years. Then he took off, at 28 years old, and Baltimore had missed out, after he was cultured in their system. Sure, there is a list of pitchers that failed, and never got better, and it never clicked, and I am not saying he is a Jake Arrieta. But I like home grown players, and I have always had faith that he would get there. And now he has. To say, when Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings in 2014, "You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt..." would have been a valid way to look at it, granted. He was way worse than Gibson's worst. But it happens. Players do get better, and at different ages. Justin Turner is another example, albeit not a pitcher. I like betting on a player that has come of age at the MLB level, much more than a prospect.

 

Gibson lost a good year, and more, really, as one comes back from TJ, so his age could be considered a comparable and a year less (Arietta has had no TJ), and being in your 31st year does not make one 31, and he is, by most, still considered to be 30, and won't be 31 until October 23rd, and next year will be his 31 year old season. But that is all somewhat meaningless, really. I hope he is a life long Twin, and we get the best he will and has become. I feel prospects are a much worse bet, than Gibson being a star pitcher for the next several years.

Great post. Great analogy with Arrieta. I always think of Cliff Lee, who got sent down to the minors in his late 20s.

[wabene]

If Gibson was a normally aged pitcher at the end of his team control I'd probably agree with you.  But an extension to a 32 year old is a major gamble right from the outset, regardless of who they are.

 

So, sure, there is value in keeping him, but I wouldn't let that stop me from aggressively shopping him.

I would bet Gibby is a late bloomer and has at least a few years of prime ball ahead unless of course Molly grinds him down. We need five starters to fill a team but at least seven to get through the year. If we keep Gibby were have 2.5 you can count on for next year. Romero is my half. With how much this team has struggled too fill out a rotation and all the retreads we have had the pleasure of watching i don't understand a twins fan suggesting we get rid of a talented homegrown guy like Gibby. Plus rite now the guy is fun to watch. Lance Lynn, Ricky Nolasco, Hector Santiago, Sam Deduno, Scott diamond... dude I have a bad memory but I could keep going on and on.

[h2oface]

 

Great post. Great analogy with Arrieta. I always think of Cliff Lee, who got sent down to the minors in his late 20s.

 

I forgot about Lee. Not a bad pitcher in his 30's. 

[wabene]

You watched him pitch the last few years right? There's plenty of reason to doubt...

 

I'm happy that he's throwing well this season at 31, but at the very least the Twins should wait until the end of next season to make any sort of decision on bringing him back. This team just sold a high draft pick to get out from under 1.5 seasons of a rushed extension, I'd prefer that mistake wasn't repeated.

 

I think reason the extension to Hughes is considered rushed is the team still had what two more years of control on a super team friendly deal. I'm not sure I would extend Gibby this year I would wait to see him continue this next year but then aggressively extend him by a year from now. I definitely don't trade him.

[wsnydes]

 

If you gut your team every year you think your not a contender aren't you just starting over all the time? You've got to build with something and in bball there is no better building block than an established starter.

Trading one starting pitcher is gutting the team?  One of the best trade chips is an established starter.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to them keeping him, but I do think they should dangle him to see who bites.  If they don't hear anything that interests them, there's no need to deal him.  I want to see how he does next season before I give him an extension, but I'm not taking any options to improve this team off the table.  The Twins are in a pretty decent spot regarding Gibson.  Either teams meet their demands for a trade or the Twins keep him.  That's a win/win situation.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why is the starting pitcher still TBA for Sunday? It's Berrios, right?

[wabene]

Trading one starting pitcher is gutting the team? One of the best trade chips is an established starter.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to them keeping him, but I do think they should dangle him to see who bites. If they don't hear anything that interests them, there's no need to deal him. I want to see how he does next season before I give him an extension, but I'm not taking any options to improve this team off the table. The Twins are in a pretty decent spot regarding Gibson. Either teams meet their demands for a trade or the Twins keep him. That's a win/win situation.

The reference to gutting the team would be because those that suggest trading Gibby tend to want to move Dozier, Santana, Escobar, Lynn, Odorizzi, Duke, Rodney, Reed,Kepler etc. Even hear Rosie mentioned. A long list. I'm not against moving many of the minor bits but I don't let go of Gibson unless the return is a fleecing of a desperate contender reminding me of the Pierzinski deal. One thing that would be different is then the twins were trading from a position of strength having mauer behind Pierzinski. I would hang on too Kepler, Escobar and Rosie unless similarly impressed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins will not get a return that will be better in 2019 than Gibson. I’m 99 percent confident in that. I want the Twins to do everything in their power to compete not later than 2019.

So I don’t care if some team offers a top prospect. That guy will be in A ball, or lower, and I’m not interested.

 

Pretty much this. I'm not ready to punt on 2019. I could see trading Lynn and maybe even Odorizzi, but Gibby would be in my 2019 plans. It would have to have to be one heck of a return to part with him, which means a top prospect in AAA or struggling in his 1st taste of MLB. I don't think teams will value Gibson at the current level that he's performing. May as well just roll the dice, because I cannot imagine the return being any less this time in 2019 if Sano and Buxton flop again. 

[wsnydes]

 

The reference to gutting the team would be because those that suggest trading Gibby tend to want to move Dozier, Escobar, Lynn, Odorizzi, Kepler etc. A long list. I'm not against moving many of the minor bits burr I don't let go of Gibson unless the return is a fleecing of a desperate contender reminding me of the Pierzinski deal. One thing that would be different is then the twins were trading from a position of strength having mauer behind Pierzinski

Agreed, there's no reason to tear it down completely. Trading the pending FA's makes sense, but anyone that is still in the long term plans should remain or at least garner one heck of a haul in return. I'm not sure where Gibson falls in that discussion yet, but it doesn't hurt to shop him.  Nothing says that they have to deal him.

 

It could be argued that there are young starters knocking on the door for next season, if they're not already.  With Lynn and Santana gone as FA's, they have May and Pineda coming back plus Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia all at AAA or on the current roster.  May and Pineda could end up in the pen, but there is some depth there.

[adorduan]

 

Which Gibson, 13'-17' or 2018? 

 

I agree that whatever the Twins get back in a trade won't have near the impact in 19' that Gibson would if he builds off of this season, but you're also taking a pretty serious leap of faith that this is the pitcher Gibson is going to be for the next 1.4 years. 

He was good in 2015.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Agreed, there's no reason to tear it down completely. Trading the pending FA's makes sense, but anyone that is still in the long term plans should remain or at least garner one heck of a haul in return. I'm not sure where Gibson falls in that discussion yet, but it doesn't hurt to shop him.  Nothing says that they have to deal him.

 

It could be argued that there are young starters knocking on the door for next season, if they're not already.  With Lynn and Santana gone as FA's, they have May and Pineda coming back plus Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia all at AAA or on the current roster.  May and Pineda could end up in the pen, but there is some depth there.

 

yeah, I'd probably shop him... but I don't think anyone would give me enough to part with him. I'd probably be more interested in shopping Odorizzi, as Pineda can replace him and they can go north with May as the 5th starter. 

[wsnydes]

 

yeah, I'd probably shop him... but I don't think anyone would give me enough to part with him. I'd probably be more interested in shopping Odorizzi, as Pineda can replace him and they can go north with May as the 5th starter. 

I wouldn't be opposed to that either.  I do like that they have options to mix and match for next years rotation, with both veterans and prospects.  I think that's a very good thing.

[Tomj14]

 

Agreed, I don't see them as contender's next year, so I would at least listen to a trade.  Contending next year is going to take a 180 from this season.  I don't see it, especially if the payroll goes back down.  

IMO if the Twins aren't considered a contender in 2019, then they won't be in 2020 and only maybe in in 2021, and if that is what the front office thinks, then they should try to trade EVERYBODY on the team. Including Berrios and Rosario because they will never return more than now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I wouldn't be opposed to that either.  I do like that they have options to mix and match for next years rotation, with both veterans and prospects.  I think that's a very good thing.

 

yeah, baring picking up a big SP prospect in the high minors, my rotation in 2019 would be Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Pineda, and May. Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Thrope, Mejia, and Littell would be my AAA fall backs. You really only need one of the AAA guys to emerge to have 2020 locked up.. maybe two if May falters. That's still plenty of depth as well as plenty of options for 2020. Graterol and Wells aren't that far behind either.

 

Edit: now that I think of it Mejia is out of options next year, so he's either in the MN pen as a long man (if they want him to stay stretched out) or on another team.

[yarnivek1972]

No one wants to trade Gibson because they are a "hater", that's preposterous. Seriously.

 

He's 31 at the end of the year, 32 by the end of his team control. He's not a long-term asset, so it's worthwhile to see what long-term assets he might yield in a trade.

Max Scherzer is 34. Justin Verlander is 35. Both are top ten bWAR for pitchers in 2018. Pitchers don’t lose it as fast as position players. This is well known. Especially guys that aren’t overly reliant on velocity. Gibson can easily maintain his effectiveness for 4-5 more years. Edited July 27, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would be inclined to keep Gibson, but I would not mind a 3 team trade where:

 

1. the Yankees or Red Sox get Gibson,

 

2. the Twins get Realmuto and

 

3. the Marlins get top prospects from the Twins and from the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Gibson's effectiveness against both the Yankees and Red Sox this year might help create a bidding war.

I wish I could like this again. Gibson plus Krilliof isn’t getting it done straight up, but might in a 3 team swap

[twinssouth]

Seems like Kyle Gibson has adopted a motion that looks almost like short-arming the ball, with an abbreviated windup of his pitching arm. Hitters have a terrible time gaging the speed as well as the type of pitch he's throwing. 

 

I don't recall seeing better stuff from Gibson. Not only were his breaking balls falling off the table, his heater was consistently on the edges of the zone the whole time. 

 

Heh-heh, it's almost like Gibson just showcased himself for the two teams he'd most like to pitch for, the Yankees and the Red Sox. 

 

 

 

 

Felt same way, Yankees were probably drueling on last nights performance. Just can't see any reason why you would trade him. 2 yrs left team control, finally figured it out, Berrios and Gibson, heck of a 1-2.

 

Heh-heh...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I wish I could like this again. Gibson plus Krilliof isn’t getting it done straight up, but might in a 3 team swap

 

Not quite sure I'd give up AK in that scenario, but I do agree that trading Gibson in a 3 way deal to get Realmutto makes sense, though it's going to create a hole in the 2019 rotation. The Yankees/Sox would likely be giving up the top prospect (and note the Red Sox system is pretty weak right now, so it's probably NYY), and I could see the Twins parting with two of the lesser pieces in that deal to make it work, at least one of which would probably be a guy like Mejia, who the Marlins could stick in their rotation for all of 2019. 

 

 

[rdehring]

Was this the best start for Gibson in his career?  I believe, although not certain, he has a shutout or two along the way.  But against this lineup, 8 inning with 1 run just may be his best night...ever.

 

As for trading him, why?  If the Twins are going to compete next year or the year or two after, they need top of the line pitching.  Why would you ever trade one of the best.  And yes, this year Gibson is one of the best (top 10 or 15 in baseball).