Article: MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!

[Tom Froemming]

Am I right!? Ervin Santana made an encouraging 2018 debut as the Twins managed to pull off a sweep at Toronto, scoring six runs in the top of the 11th inning. I spent much of the Royals series wondering aloud on here if the Twins taking a downturn before the deadline may be for the best, but these last three games have been fun. I mean, not really keep the band together fun, but still.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Ervin Santana: 50 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, 61.9% strikes

Bullpen: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Lineup: 6-for-17 w/RISP, 12 LOB

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .396, Kepler .364, Belisle .289, Duke .140

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Morrison -.143, Hildenberger -.408

Download attachment: WinChart725.png

Let’s go around the horn …

 

First Base

It’s great to see Ervin back, and his 2018 debut has to be considered a success. After a much longer recovery than expected followed by some concerning reports throughout the early stages of his minor league rehab assignment, Santana didn’t pitch a gem but he gave his team a chance to win.

 

Santana topped out at 91.1 mph, but relied heavily on his offspeed stuff. According to Baseball Savant, only 25 of his 97 pitches were fastballs. He threw 37 changeups and 35 sliders. Last season, Ervin averaged 93.1 mph on his four-seamer and only threw his changeup 10.3 percent of the time.

 

It’ll be really interesting to follow Santana’s pitch usage, but as a veteran who’s had to make plenty of adjustments over his career, one would think he can still be an asset even without his best stuff going.

 

Second Base

Trevor Hildenberger’s having a weird year. He gave up three earned runs in an inning of work today, coughing up the lead in the eighth inning in the process. He’s now given up 21 earned runs this season, 11 of which have come in three particularly ugly appearances. But hey, he’s been pretty awesome in those other 44 games.

 

It was all OK, because the Twins were bailed out by ... Matt Belisle? Wait, that can’t be right.

 

OK, so Matty B pitched his way into trouble and then was aided by terrible baserunning by Kendrys Morales, but he did pitch a scoreless ninth inning. And he wasn’t done! Belisle came back out for the 10th, gave up a leadoff single, but again worked a scoreless inning.

 

Just gonna go ahead and pencil Matt Belisle into my projected 2019 Minnesota Twins bullpen right now.

 

Third Base

Max Kepler, well ... he had a bad moment.

Apparently Max didn’t inherit those dancer’s feet Kepler drove in the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th inning with a bases-loaded hit by pitch. Maybe not the most heroic way to pick up the game-winning RBI, but whatever works.

 

The crazy part was the Twins just kept scoring in the 11th inning, thanks in large part to ...

 

Home Plate

Mitch Garver. He was the heartbeat of the Twins offense today. Garver singled to drive in the Twins first run in the second inning, hit a go-ahead home run in the sixth, added an RBI single in the eighth inning and then delivered a two-run double in the 11th.

Garver entered this game having hit .308 with an .868 OPS over his previous 30 games. It was also great to see things work out so that Mitch was catching Santana’s first game back. Forming a battery with such a veteran is only going to help Garver’s development behind the plate.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen725.png

AL Central Standings

CLE 55-46

MIN 47-53 (-7.5)

DET 44-60 (-12.5)

CHW 36-64 (-18.5)

KC 31-70 (-24)

 

Next Three Games

Thu at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Brian Johnson

Fri at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Chris Sale

Sat at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: TBD

 

Last Three Games

MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, Indeed

MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto

KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously)

 

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[Brandon]

So i guess were back to wait and see after this sweep in terms of selling? I mean i can see Lynn still being traded but not sure about anyone else if we get to the deadline 5 maybe 6 games tops back.

[Nine of twelve]

 

It’ll be really interesting to follow Santana’s pitch usage, but as a veteran who’s had to make plenty of adjustments over his career, one would think he can still be an asset even without his best stuff going.
 

The question is, an asset for which team?

[Brandon]

Also it looks like Sano could be back anytime now. He could take over DH and split with Escobar and Mauer on a rotation......we could release Morrison at that point since the results just arent there.

[Danchat]

It's cool that the Twins are beating up on some of the bad teams... Toronto's roster looks a lot worse than their record implies IMO. I still fully expect the Twins to trade some players within the week. I don't suspect the Twins match up to the Red Sox like they did in the last series.

 

 

 

So i guess were back to wait and see after this sweep in terms of selling? I mean i can see Lynn still being traded but not sure about anyone else if we get to the deadline 5 maybe 6 games tops back.

I mean, sure, someone will probably take Lynn and give you a non-prospect for him. The Twins are probably better off starting Mejia, and I can't imagine teams vying for the postseason would want him when there are better options out there.

[ScooterDance]

Jesus if we had taken 2/3 from an awful KC team we’d be only 5.5 back with a mega soft next 30 games or so.

 

Season of missed opportunities.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Jesus if we had taken 2/3 from an awful KC team we’d be only 5.5 back with a mega soft next 30 games or so.

Season of missed opportunities.

Yep.

[jorgenswest]

Huge game from Garver, game saving innings from Garver and a big extra innings double from a Dozier lead to nice win. It is great to be able to just sit and enjoy the game of baseball.

[Monkeypaws]

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense. 

 

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

 

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.

[gocgo]

 

Also it looks like Sano could be back anytime now. He could take over DH and split with Escobar and Mauer on a rotation......we could release Morrison at that point since the results just arent there.

Started a great DP to end the game today.  I don't see him being released.  And I don't see Sano back that soon.  He's had one good game at Rochester.

[jorgenswest]

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense.

 

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

 

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.

I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.

When Castro went down, people were excited to see Garver.

 

I thought the loss of Castro was possibly the worst thing that could happen to Garver.

 

It appears Garver is improving but I think he could improve more backing up Castro.

[jorgenswest]

When Castro went down, people were excited to see Garver.

 

I thought the loss of Castro was possibly the worst thing that could happen to Garver.

 

It appears Garver is improving but I think he could improve more backing up Castro.

They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.

[DocBauer]

They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.

 

THIS. ABSOLUTELY.

 

Some want to like on Castro's poor production before he hit the surgeon's table. But unknown to us, he was playing on a bad knee. I believe all along Garver was supposed to be the backup and learn and be groomed. Suddenly he was thrust in to a role not intended. Wilson was supposed to be the veteran AAA catcher to work with the staff there, and come up for a short stint here and there if necessary. Obviously things haven't worked out that way.

[DocBauer]

BTW, no rose colored glasses, he wasn't dominate and threw way too many pitches, but the SO were OK, and 1 more IP would have still been a quality start. Yeah, I know, optimistic. Just saying, was better than I expected.

 

Question I have is, another, better start or two, is he trade value with the August waiver wire? Or do you bank on a fully healthy Santana for a 1 year deal for about 7M with incentives for 2019?

[Brandon]

Started a great DP to end the game today. I don't see him being released. And I don't see Sano back that soon. He's had one good game at Rochester.

I meant by the trade deadline give or take a few days.

[Aerodeliria]

Wow! A sweep of the Blue Jays...Garver was hitting everything in sight. Oh how I wish I could have watched this one. 

 

Those must have been a couple of interesting (ugly?) innings by Belisle. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems as if Toronto bailed Belisle out instead of the other way around. I can imagine him being brought into games more frequently instead of being released...

 

I think Hildenberger is STILL the most reliable person in the pen, but he has pitched in four of the last five. He was probably exhausted.

[jkcarew]

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense. 

 

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

 

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.

 

I think Garver can be as good offensively, and his arm is better than Harper’s. Harper’s receiving skills, though, were good...Garver, yikes!

 

We’ll see, I hope. Need to play him (basically) every day behind the plate and see how much better it can get.

 

Nobody was giving Harper much of a chance. His first year with the Twins was his first shot at being an every-day catcher...at age 28. Garver is 27.

[bighat]

Credit to Santana, he gritted this one out. Have to tip your cap to the guy. First MLB start in a long, long time.

 

When Garver gets hot, he really is a great addition to this lineup!

 

Twins score 12 runs, Morrison goes 0-4 with two K's and 3 men LOB. His batting average is now .192. Only Joey Gallo (who has 25 HR and 55 RBI) and Chris Davis (just plain terrible at .153) are worse among qualified batters. That's in all of MLB, not just the AL.

 

That sweep to KC looks worse every day.

 

Welp, on to Beantown. I would absolutely love to see the Twins go on a tear and win that series! I know it's a pipe dream, but that's what being a baseball fan's all about.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Started a great DP to end the game today.  I don't see him being released.  And I don't see Sano back that soon.  He's had one good game at Rochester.

I agree, No point in releasing Morrison. Sure, he's been a major disappointment this year. but I keep hoping he'll get hot before the month is over (hmm... not much time left) or in early August, and then maybe maybe maybe some team will give up a low level prospect for him. Gotta keep hoping for a miracle.

[Squirrel]

Credit to Santana, he gritted this one out. Have to tip your cap to the guy. First MLB start in a long, long time.

 

When Garver gets hot, he really is a great addition to this lineup!

 

Twins score 12 runs, Morrison goes 0-4 with two K's and 3 men LOB. His batting average is now .192. Only Joey Gallo (who has 25 HR and 55 RBI) and Chris Davis (just plain terrible at .153) are worse among qualified batters. That's in all of MLB, not just the AL.

 

That sweep to KC looks worse every day.

 

Welp, on to Beantown. I would absolutely love to see the Twins go on a tear and win that series! I know it's a pipe dream, but that's what being a baseball fan's all about.

Yep, it’s a pipe dream for sure. But we’ll have every Yankees’ fan out there cheering us on!

[jorgenswest]

 

Wow! A sweep of the Blue Jays...Garver was hitting everything in sight. Oh how I wish I could have watched this one. 

 

Those must have been a couple of interesting (ugly?) innings by Belisle. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems as if Toronto bailed Belisle out instead of the other way around. I can imagine him being brought into games more frequently instead of being released...

 

I think Hildenberger is STILL the most reliable person in the pen, but he has pitched in four of the last five. He was probably exhausted.

Belisle pitched well. He kept hitters off balance and was not hit hard. He was in trouble in his 9th inning as a result of a two singles. The second single was a weak bloop just over the infield. Bad luck for the Twins on the bloop. Bad base running for the Jays on the double play. A single, two strike outs and a lazy fly ball to right field in the 10th. 

 

A very good performance. If doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season but he executed his pitches and kept hitters off balance when the Twins desperately needed a few innings.

[B Good]

I understand Garver was not Option A; he was supposed to be the backup.  However, after last night, among all catchers in baseball with at least 200 plate appearances, he ranks 7th in BA, 6th in OBP and 10th in WAR.  There is ZERO reason he should be in a 50/50 split with Bobby Wilson.  He should be playing 2 out of 3 at a bare minimum.  Yet another reason to LOVE Molitor's 'managing'.  

[Han Joelo]

 

Wow! A sweep of the Blue Jays...Garver was hitting everything in sight. Oh how I wish I could have watched this one. 

 

Those must have been a couple of interesting (ugly?) innings by Belisle. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems as if Toronto bailed Belisle out instead of the other way around. I can imagine him being brought into games more frequently instead of being released...

 

I think Hildenberger is STILL the most reliable person in the pen, but he has pitched in four of the last five. He was probably exhausted.

Belisle looked good to me.  Not some dominating flamethrower, mind you.  More like what he--and Santana--are: wizened, ultra-calm vets. Its like having Yoda and Mace Windu pitching. He even mind-tricked Morales into getting doubled off for the second time.  I would like scouts to invent a 100 point scale, with Greg Maddux on the top end and Nuke Laloosh on the other, that basically just describes how well a pitcher (and catcher?) actually knows how to pitch strategically.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree, No point in releasing Morrison. Sure, he's been a major disappointment this year. but I keep hoping he'll get hot before the month is over (hmm... not much time left) or in early August, and then maybe maybe maybe some team will give up a low level prospect for him. Gotta keep hoping for a miracle.

There absolutely is a point to releasing him. To give someone else the at bats. Vargas if anyone still thinks he can be helpful or more likely Lamonte Wade.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense. 

 

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

 

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.

 

 What makes you think Brian Harper was deficient on defense? I remember him as a pretty good catcher – not amazing but proficient. I can’t find Gleeman’s writeup of him in his never-to-be-finished Top 50 Twins but I remember him calling Harper underrated defensively.

I think what happens is every time a catcher can’t hit (see Butera, Drew) he gets a reputation as a defensive stalwart. Must be, otherwise how would he make the pros? And outside of your Mauers and Poseys (Posies?), offensive catchers get an automatic downgrade (because defensive catchers are supposed to not hit). It’s confirmation bias at its worst.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Belisle looked good to me.  Not some dominating flamethrower, mind you.  More like what he--and Santana--are: wizened, ultra-calm vets. Its like having Yoda and Mace Windu pitching. He even mind-tricked Morales into getting doubled off for the second time.  I would like scouts to invent a 100 point scale, with Greg Maddux on the top end and Nuke Laloosh on the other, that basically just describes how well a pitcher (and catcher?) actually knows how to pitch strategically.

So what's the theory -- that sometimes Belisle just forgets to "pitch strategically"? Or doesn't always have the stuff to execute it? Because we sure haven't trusted him to do this very often (if at all) so far in 2018.

[ThejacKmp]

TheThe Twins should wait til the end of this Boston series to sell. Boston’s rotation and pen are all out of whack because of the many insane rain delays this week in Baltimore. They win 3 of 4 and the Indians win 1 of 2 and I think you can’t sell unless you get a Godfather offer.

The nice thing is that the Twins don’t have to buy, they just stand pat. There aren’t any obvious holes besides backup catcher and with Sano and Buxton potentially coming back, some reinforcements ready in the wings.

You lose some prospects but the Twins weren’t going to get that much anyway – Escobar is their best expiring guy and he’s more of a bargain buy. With Gordon looking less likely to be an opening day starter, I have no issues offering QOs to Dozier and Escobar and daring them to take it (Escobar won’t because this is his first big contract and I doubt Dozier will because of pride).

[jorgenswest]

 

There absolutely is a point to releasing him. To give someone else the at bats. Vargas if anyone still thinks he can be helpful or more likely Lamonte Wade.

Looking at his statcast numbers he really isn't that far off last year in his batted ball numbers. His xWOBA was .371 last year and .360 this year. The batted ball results (slash stats) are poor but they are not reliable for future projection at a partial season sample.

 

I think the xWOBA provides a better projection for the future. I would certainly keep him if I can't find a trade partner. 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.

My impression is that Garver caught about 2/3 of the time after Castro went down, but has only caught 50/50 since the start of July, and this additional rest has allowed him to refresh and cut down on the glaring mistakes. So I am ok with Garver continuing to get no more than half the games behind the dish for now.