Article: Twins Minor League Report (7/24): Gonsalves, Kirilloff, Rooker Continue Hot Stretches

[slash129]

 

Forgive me, but I'm going to respond to a few posts to try to give perspective. Rooker is by no means a bad prospect, but he is just about 24 playing in AA. If MLB throws him only fastballs, he might be of use, but that's not going to happen beyond the first bit of playing time. He has holes, he has no defensive value. He MIGHT be decent with the bat if he continues to improve. Interesting? Yes Get excited? No.

 

Geez, you write that in a way that would make one think he's a geriatric at the AA level.  He's still a year younger than an average player in that league.  I'm not in the 2018 September call-up camp, but he's certainly a player that to be excited about.  He's been on a two year roll of success including an SEC Triple Crown and crushing the very pitcher friendly FSL. Until he doesn't answer a challenge, why can't we get excited?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Geez, you write that in a way that would make one think he's a geriatric at the AA level.  He's still a year younger than an average player in that league.  I'm not in the 2018 September call-up camp, but he's certainly a player that to be excited about.  He's been on a two year roll of success including an SEC Triple Crown and crushing the very pitcher friendly FSL. Until he doesn't answer a challenge, why can't we get excited?

 

Of course, average age is kind of meaningless for prospects, since the minors are filled with players that are older, and not moving up. But your general point that Rooker has a year in professional baseball, and he's hitting well in AA is valid.....

[Steve Lein]

 

Not to be a party pooper but Rooker does have 119 Ks in 375 ABs. Almost 1 every 3 ABs. Thats not gonna translate well in MLB. I bet this is why he is still in AA at this point, to improve this ratio some.

 

I know the 10 games I singled out is a small sample, but that's a pretty good ratio...

 

If I look a little harder, in April/May his overall ratio was 10 walks to 60 K's.

 

In June/July, that's at 24 walks to 59 K's.

 

He's definitely been improving the ratio, even if you don't care that the K-rate itself isn't improved. That's also directly related to when he started mashing, so I pay more attention to the production at this point.

[Steve Lein]

 

Sadly Benninghoff didn't have the great outing that was stated.

 

He actually gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 3 innings. 

 

As I finally start checking everything this morning, I see that the box score and game log was updated and now shows this.

 

Trust me, I didn't mix that up writing it! 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Forgive me, but I'm going to respond to a few posts to try to give perspective. Rooker is by no means a bad prospect, but he is just about 24 playing in AA. If MLB throws him only fastballs, he might be of use, but that's not going to happen beyond the first bit of playing time. He has holes, he has no defensive value. He MIGHT be decent with the bat if he continues to improve. Interesting? Yes Get excited? No.

I'm not sure this is fair. He'll turn 24 after the season. Yes, strike outs are a concern and I think most of us have noted that. But he's still a darn nice prospect. He was in BA's top 100 pre-season and Sickel's list as well. My guess is that next year he'll be a back end top 100 guy on most lists after this season. He's not Kris Bryant but that doesn't mean he's not a good prospect. 

[twinstalker]

 

This is awesome. This day of minor league action sums up how our farm system has been this year. Wander Javier is the only somewhat big prospect that has missed a considerable amount of time. We've had too many years where at least one top prospect has had tommy john. 

 

I could see us possibly having up to 7 or 8 top 100 prospects next year the way things are going. And that's not even including guys like Thorpe or Baddoo who could be making strides at becoming one soon.

 

This is fun guys

Other teams have prospects, too. There are 30 teams, an average of 3.3 prospects per in any given top 100 list. Perhaps you think there are 7 or 8 Twins in the top 100 because it's difficult to name more than two on avg from each of the other teams? Lewis and Kirilloff are the only two guaranteed to be top 100 (top 40 probably) and Graterol is likely in if he ends the year healthy.

 

Nick Gordon is vastly overrated and slowly disappearing from the lists. Javier was a trendy pick who won't be on, Gonsalves is very iffy. Thorpe is a better prospect than any of these guys. Rooker is unlikely to be on a consensus list. Larnach is interesting, but he's the 20th pick in the draft. That rarely gets you into a top 100. It basically means there are approx 20 other draftees put in there if he makes it. Keep in mind Larnach was drafted 20 in part because he was signing for less. He wasn't really even acknowledged as being around the 20th best.  Right now he's hitting in a league that's a level below major college.

 

The Twins system is developing nicely. Let's just be happy about that. We are in some ways catching up to other teams

[slash129]

Rooker's K and BB % by month:

 

April - 29.7% / 2.2%

May - 28.7% / 7%

June - 28% / 11.2%

July - 28.4% / 11.7%

 

Yes, he needs to get that K% down at this level to be expected to advance and have success, but he is definitely doing his part to increase the BB% and make the expected higher K-rate of a power hitter less of an issue.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Other teams have prospects, too. There are 30 teams, an average of 3.3 prospects per in any given top 100 list. Perhaps you think there are 7 or 8 Twins in the top 100 because it's difficult to name more than two on avg from each of the other teams? Lewis and Kirilloff are the only two guaranteed to be top 100 (top 40 probably) and Graterol is likely in if he ends the year healthy.

 

Nick Gordon is vastly overrated and slowly disappearing from the lists. Javier was a trendy pick who won't be on, Gonsalves is very iffy. Thorpe is a better prospect than any of these guys. Rooker is unlikely to be on a consensus list. Larnach is interesting, but he's the 20th pick in the draft. That rarely gets you into a top 100. It basically means there are approx 20 other draftees put in there if he makes it. Keep in mind Larnach was drafted 20 in part because he was signing for less. He wasn't really even acknowledged as being around the 20th best.  Right now he's hitting in a league that's a level below major college.

 

The Twins system is developing nicely. Let's just be happy about that. We are in some ways catching up to other teams

 

After the draft this year, Fangraphs updated their prospect list. Gordon moved up from 77 to 62.....

 

Fangraphs also really liked Lanarch a lot, and had him higher than 20th on their draft list....

Edited July 25, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Han Joelo]

 

As I finally start checking everything this morning, I see that the box score and game log was updated and now shows this.

 

Trust me, I didn't mix that up writing it! 

 

I went back and looked at the game log, as you probably did as well.  As you mention in the update, he was cruising nicely.  The wheels fell off though--a walk, a balk, a single, (in no particular order.)  Then a couple of his baserunners aren't stranded.  Digging deeper, you'd think this is a guy with great stuff who needs to build stamina, and mental fortitude.  Exactly what you'd expect in the GCL.

[jeffn48]

 

Too early to tell but Feliz got 260k in 2016 to sign. Heredia signed the same year but his bonus isn't listed. I couldn't find anything on the other two guys but most of these guys are Venezuelan. Twins have had good in-roads to Venezuela for years now and that country is going through a lot of rough things so I think - and this is just a guess - that the Twins are probably nabbing a bunch of bodies from Venezuela, hoping that a few end up sticking.

 

Thanks. Even last year as a 17 year old, Heredia seemed to hold his own. I did notice almost everyone was Venezuelan.

 

I'm trying to find some comps - current top prospects or MLBers who played in the DSL and it's not easy. Most seem to skip the DSL which makes sense because at 18 or 19 they've already established themselves as top prospects stateside.

 

From the Twins, Jorge Polanco played there as a 17 y/o for a little bit, without much success.

Among current top prospects, Willy Adames posted a 245/419/370 slash as a 17 y/o.

Leody Taveras (Texas) raked as a 17 y/o in 11 games.

Ditto for Jesus Sanchez (TB).

Estevan Florial, same.

 

The trend seems to be that top 100 guys are really putting up great numbers here as 17 year olds and then moving on and continuing to put great numbers in the low minors - or just skipping the league altogether.

 

[jokin]

 

Still a 28.2% K rate in that time, though.

 

Agreed. But a move to AAA now gives him a chance to work on seeing and adjusting to more breaking balls sooner. If he can make the necessary adjustments and get that K% ~25% or less, he could be an impact- and sorely needed- RH power bat by mid-season 2019.

[Mike Sixel]

I put a quote about Rooker in my new thread in the MN Twins part of the forum.......you may or may not want to read it....

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Nice start for Gonsalves. I am though not sold on him. Unless he can consistently cut the number of walks down I don’t have a lot of hope for him as a starter. Of course I hope I am proven wrong but I just am not as excited about Gonsalves like I wa 2 yrs ago.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know the 10 games I singled out is a small sample, but that's a pretty good ratio...

 

If I look a little harder, in April/May his overall ratio was 10 walks to 60 K's.

 

In June/July, that's at 24 walks to 59 K's.

 

He's definitely been improving the ratio, even if you don't care that the K-rate itself isn't improved. That's also directly related to when he started mashing, so I pay more attention to the production at this point.

  

Rooker's K and BB % by month:

 

April - 29.7% / 2.2%

May - 28.7% / 7%

June - 28% / 11.2%

July - 28.4% / 11.7%

 

Yes, he needs to get that K% down at this level to be expected to advance and have success, but he is definitely doing his part to increase the BB% and make the expected higher K-rate of a power hitter less of an issue.

More extreme, but I remember hearing "ratio" defenses of Adam Brett Walker too. I don't think BB% is particularly meaningful at that level when you are whiffing that much. I suspect he is getting pitched around like he wouldn't in MLB (and the walk rate increasing as his bat heats up seems to align with that).

 

I am not dismissing Rooker, but I think he needs K% improvement at these levels to become an impact player in MLB. I suspect that's why he hasn't gotten a promotion yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Agreed. But a move to AAA now gives him a chance to work on seeing and adjusting to more breaking balls sooner. If he can make the necessary adjustments and get that K% ~25% or less, he could be an impact- and sorely needed- RH power bat by mid-season 2019.

Why promote him at 28%, when you need him to get it down to 25%?

[drivlikejehu]

There's nothing wrong with Rooker spending the full year in AA. His late pro start was always going to make him a bit old by prospect standards, but every year a pretty decent number of late bloomers arrive on the MLB scene. 

 

Realistically, he probably needs a full year at AAA in 2019, with a cup of coffee at the end if the opportunity arises. By all accounts, he's a hard worker . . . the potential is there but it's not a traditional prospect profile.

[jeffn48]

Because I was interested and bored, I decided to keep digging on the 2016 IFA class:

 

Top bonus went to Wander Valdez  (3B / DomRep / 495k) - he's not doing much currently in the DSL.

 

Junior Navas is a Venezuelan pitcher who got 275k. Looks like hes in the GCL right now, only 2 appearances but no runs and 2k's. Didn't allow an earned run last year in the DSL as a 17 y/o.

 

Previously noted Jesus Feliz got $260k as gunnarthor mentioned. Showing well in DSL.

 

Prelander Berroa is a Dominican pitcher who got $200k, currently in the GCL. Starting and showing alright for someone who turned 18 recently.

 

Dominican CF Felix Reyes got $200k. He has 7 AB's in the DSL this year, so maybe he's in EST? Don't know.

 

Victor Heredia apparently generated some buzz at a showcase before the signing period in both BP and the game. The Twins gave him $180k. He's listed at 6'2 230 and is raking in the DSL. Scouting reports don't indicate a high probability to stick at catcher so he needs to hit.

 

Domincan OF Francisco Martinez got $175k. He's 6'5 220 and showing nice power in the DSL, but striking out more than 1/3 of the time. Can't imagine stats like that transition well.

 

Estamy Urena got $130k, currently in the GCL. Showing decent discipline at the plate and not much else in a smallish sample. Scouting reports indicate he showed good instincts at SS, but he's playing 2b/3b and making a fair number of errors currently.

 

Yeremi Garcia, pitcher from Venezuela, got $100k. Mediocre numbers in 11 DSL IPs this year.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/international-reviews-minnesota-twins-1/

 

 

[rdehring]

Was '16 the year we paid the big bucks to Marte, jeffn48?  I am beginning to see that signing a bunch of guys around $200k-$400k may be better than going all in on one guy for $3mm-$4mm.  Especially now that there are limits on spending.

 

Romero and Graterol seem to confirm this.

[markos]

 

Because I was interested and bored, I decided to keep digging on the 2016 IFA class:

 

Top bonus went to Wander Valdez  (3B / DomRep / 495k) - he's not doing much currently in the DSL.

 

Junior Navas is a Venezuelan pitcher who got 275k. Looks like hes in the GCL right now, only 2 appearances but no runs and 2k's. Didn't allow an earned run last year in the DSL as a 17 y/o.

 

Previously noted Jesus Feliz got $260k as gunnarthor mentioned. Showing well in DSL.

 

Prelander Berroa is a Dominican pitcher who got $200k, currently in the GCL. Starting and showing alright for someone who turned 18 recently.

 

Dominican CF Felix Reyes got $200k. He has 7 AB's in the DSL this year, so maybe he's in EST? Don't know.

 

Victor Heredia apparently generated some buzz at a showcase before the signing period in both BP and the game. The Twins gave him $180k. He's listed at 6'2 230 and is raking in the DSL. Scouting reports don't indicate a high probability to stick at catcher so he needs to hit.

 

Domincan OF Francisco Martinez got $175k. He's 6'5 220 and showing nice power in the DSL, but striking out more than 1/3 of the time. Can't imagine stats like that transition well.

 

Estamy Urena got $130k, currently in the GCL. Showing decent discipline at the plate and not much else in a smallish sample. Scouting reports indicate he showed good instincts at SS, but he's playing 2b/3b and making a fair number of errors currently.

 

Yeremi Garcia, pitcher from Venezuela, got $100k. Mediocre numbers in 11 DSL IPs this year.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/international-reviews-minnesota-twins-1/

Thanks for sharing!

 

And frankly, this is exactly why I keep coming back to this site - lots of people here are willing to take the time and effort to either do the research or share their knowledge when random, niche questions come up, or just share something they were curious about. 

[Pitz]

Because I was interested and bored, I decided to keep digging on the 2016 IFA class

 

Victor Heredia apparently generated some buzz at a showcase before the signing period in both BP and the game. The Twins gave him $180k. He's listed at 6'2 230 and is raking in the DSL. Scouting reports don't indicate a high probability to stick at catcher so he needs to hit.

 

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/international-reviews-minnesota-twins-1/

Thanks for this write up. Im pretty sure Heredia hasn't caught a game this season, playing only 1B and DH. He has been raking pretty well though.

[GameDay]

Kirilloff needs to be at AA. Sure, he's riding a hot streak, but he also has 18 hits in his last 29 ABs with low K rate. (He's also gotten 9 hits in his last 11). 

 

That's not a fluke... he's not being challenged. It's a waste of time to have him in Ft. Myers at this point.

[Dman]

 

Was '16 the year we paid the big bucks to Marte, jeffn48?  I am beginning to see that signing a bunch of guys around $200k-$400k may be better than going all in on one guy for $3mm-$4mm.  Especially now that there are limits on spending.

 

Romero and Graterol seem to confirm this.

 

I think you want to do both if can.  You can only sign so many of those guys anyway.

[jeffn48]

Was '16 the year we paid the big bucks to Marte, jeffn48? I am beginning to see that signing a bunch of guys around $200k-$400k may be better than going all in on one guy for $3mm-$4mm. Especially now that there are limits on spending.

 

Romero and Graterol seem to confirm this.

I think that was 2017 based solely off of this article:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.draysbay.com/platform/amp/2017/12/12/16769076/rays-jelfry-marte-twins

 

But we voided the deal and then used it to acquire the guys from the teams who were trying to load up on Ohtani money I think.

[Steve Lein]

 

  
More extreme, but I remember hearing "ratio" defenses of Adam Brett Walker too. I don't think BB% is particularly meaningful at that level when you are whiffing that much. I suspect he is getting pitched around like he wouldn't in MLB (and the walk rate increasing as his bat heats up seems to align with that).

I am not dismissing Rooker, but I think he needs K% improvement at these levels to become an impact player in MLB. I suspect that's why he hasn't gotten a promotion yet.

 

Walker's highest BB rate ever was like 7.5% if I remember right, and that was while he also struck out over 35% of the time. He is the only player I can remember to strike out over 200 times in a MiLB season, so this isn't apples to apples for me.

 

I do agree you want to see an improvement in Rooker's K-rate, but I'm not complaining the way he's hitting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Walker's highest BB rate ever was like 7.5% if I remember right, and that was while he also struck out over 35% of the time. He is the only player I can remember to strike out over 200 times in a MiLB season, so this isn't apples to apples for me.

 

I do agree you want to see an improvement in Rooker's K-rate, but I'm not complaining the way he's hitting.

Looking it up, I see Walker reached 9.1% BB rate in AA, and it improved every year up to that point. Like Rooker, it also improved during the course of his AA season (11.2% from July onwards that year, although the rest of his production cratered). I think that's when I heard the theory around here, that his increase in walks / decent walk rate offset some of the strikeouts. And maybe it did, but not enough to matter.

 

I admitted Walker was more extreme, and I only brought him up as a general example off the top of my head. You can find others who would be more "apples to apples" for Rooker's AA rates pretty easily.

 

Rooker is at 8.2% BB rate, 28.7% K rate, and a 133 wRC+ this season. Since June 1st, 11.1% BB and 28.2% K.

 

Checking out other age 23 AA players for similar rates from 2015:

Drew Robinson, 16% BB, 26.8% K, 127 wRC+

Will Swanner, 10.8% BB%, 30.8% K, 132 wRC+

 

Never heard of these guys.

 

From 2016:

Matt Chapman, 11.7% BB, 29.2% K, 141 wRC+

J.D. Davis, 8.3% BB, 26.5% K, 134 wRC+

Bradley Zimmer, 13.8% BB, 28.3% K, 136 wRC+

 

All of these guys need gloves to have much MLB value (and Chapman's got the most value because he dropped his K rate to 23.2% and paired it with a brilliant glove, per metrics).

 

Drop it to age 22, and we add Derek Fisher, Ryan O'Hearn, and Paul DeJong from 2016. Again, 2 guys that probably need their gloves to have good MLB value, and O'Hearn whose bat cratered at AAA but it probably only cost him a "quad-A" career.

 

Jumping back to 2014, we get Michael A. Taylor, maybe Kyle Kubitza, Stetson Allie, and Rymer Liriano if you reach down to 24-25% K rates.

 

I'm not trying to "complain", he's doing great for his team, but that doesn't mean a whole lot about his future for the Twins, which is the big criteria for promotion right now (and how this whole discussion got started).

[Steve Lein]

 

Looking it up, I see Walker reached 9.1% BB rate in AA, and it improved every year up to that point. Like Rooker, it also improved during the course of his AA season (11.2% from July onwards that year, although the rest of his production cratered). I think that's when I heard the theory around here, that his increase in walks / decent walk rate offset some of the strikeouts. And maybe it did, but not enough to matter.

 

His rate at AA was not 9.1%, but I'm really responding because I do like how you pointed out Walker's BB improvement that year at AA as it went on. You also point out how he hit ~.200 with a ~.650 OPS from July to the end of the season where that BB improvement happened (also hit only 8 of his 31 HR's that season in that time-frame).

 

Rooker is hitting about .315/.400/.625 since his BB improvement (with 13 of his 20 HR's, and 18 of his 28 doubles). It has done something very tangible to matter for him, basically because he is a much better hitter than Walker ever was. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His rate at AA was not 9.1%

Walker had 51 walks in 560 PA at AA in 2015. That is 9.1%.

 

Again, as I thought I made clear in the rest of my post, I am NOT comparing Walker and Rooker as players at all.

 

Do you have any response to the other names I listed in my post? Do you have any good comps for Brent Rooker, in terms of age and K rate at AA?

[Steve Lein]

 

Walker had 51 walks in 560 PA at AA in 2015. That is 9.1%.

 

Again, as I thought I made clear in the rest of my post, I am NOT comparing Walker and Rooker as players at all.

 

Do you have any response to the other names I listed in my post? Do you have any good comps for Brent Rooker, in terms of age and K rate at AA?

 

Oops. I see I took the PA number as his AB's. Good call.

 

As for your comps, it is a valid tool to look at. In Rooker's case though, I might try to make the restraints a little different.

 

I'd use college-drafted hitters in their second professional season, ignoring age. Despite the strikeouts, Rooker's overall line at AA is even with Andrew Benintendi when he made his MLB debut. Brendon McKay (for obvious pitching reasons, but was Rooker's equal/better as a hitter in college), is in High-A hitting .200. Corey Ray is striking out just as much and walking at similar rates the past two months in the same league (Rooker has basically caught up to him for league lead in HR's and 2B's after starting so slow). Kyle Lewis is struggling in Seattle system. Matt Thaiss was in AA to start season (his third) and was promoted to AAA after a line like Rooker has...

 

Just some of what I'd look at.