Article: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Predictions

[Mike Sixel]

I predict Dozier is traded for a "meh" prospect or two. That's it.

 

And then the team keeps playing veterans with no future here.

[rdehring]

 

Why don't they just sign him as a free agent then? An extension likely isn't going to cost any less than a new deal in free agency and you can't force a player to sign an extension, why would he want to now?

 

Get more assets now while we can.

 

Why don't they just sign him as a free agent then? An extension likely isn't going to cost any less than a new deal in free agency and you can't force a player to sign an extension, why would he want to now?

 

Get more assets now while we can.

Why would he want to, certainty.  Knowing he is earning $x for the next several years in a place he apparently likes gives him peace of mind and security.  Will an extension be less or more costly, no one will ever know.  You are right, we can't force him to sign, but he just might...if asked.  

 

On the flip side, once he is gone no one knows what will happen.  I value him too much to not, 1) not trade him; and 2) want to take a shot at locking him up in early August.  On the other hand, if someone gives the Twins a too good to say no offer, you have to take it.

 

[Doomtints]

Now is a good time to make up a nice Dozier to the Dodgers rumor!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why would he want to, certainty.  Knowing he is earning $x for the next several years in a place he apparently likes gives him peace of mind and security.  Will an extension be less or more costly, no one will ever know.  You are right, we can't force him to sign, but he just might...if asked.  

 

On the flip side, once he is gone no one knows what will happen.  I value him too much to not, 1) not trade him; and 2) want to take a shot at locking him up in early August.  On the other hand, if someone gives the Twins a too good to say no offer, you have to take it.

 

No one knows what will happen if he stays, either.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

I'll guess that Duke and Lynn get dealt for very underwhelming returns. Everybody else stays.

 

Dealing Duke and Lynn would also give them a chance to check out some of the pitchers in AAA. Thats what they need to be focused on!!!

[djvang]

I'm fine with all those predictions except Escobar. Losing Dozier would be fine because they've got Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. Who would replace Escobar? I'm against trading players unless you've got a replacement ready. Don't trade just because you're out of contention and that's what you're supposed to do.

[nicksaviking]

 

The risk is overpaying to keep the status quo, which clearly isn't working, intact.

 

Overpaying for Dozier (my guess as to which one would get it if only one were to) would give "well, we paid Brian, now we need the young guys to step up more" excuse to fall back on.

 

Enough "bad signings" (Morrison, Lynn, the hypothetical overpaying of Dozier/Escobar) and the purse strings will tighten back up if there's no on-field results.

 

You were concerned that $17M was too much of a risk, not resigning the players. Payroll isn't going to be an issue, they could overpay Dozier or Escobar for one year or sign Eduardo Nunez for $4M or give Neil Walker a minor league deal and they'll be in the exact same situation, that being a veteran on a one year deal. They should be choosing who'd they like best and get that person, salary be damned as it's not going to be a factor in 2019.

 

There are no such thing as tight purse strings with a $45M payroll.

[jmlease1]

 

Time to move on - move all of these players if possible.  Too bad Reed is injured or I would move him too.  Maybe even MOTTER!  Does anyone want Grossman?  Does Cave look good enough to flip him?  Clean house.  Bobby Wilson?  I know, we are so bad that some of these players can't be given away.  But we have a new crop coming and new hope.  

 

I'd keep Reed, injured or no. Motter might be a throw-in, I guess? No one wants Grossman, he's a marginal player. Cave is no more than a throw-in at this point. Bobby Wilson would only be attractive to a team that had a sudden injury and nothing in the minors. We're not really going to change anything by flipping any of those guys.

 

Dozier, Escobar, Lynn, Mauer (if we're willing to eat contract), Gibson, maybe Santana, Pressly (who i would probably keep), Rodney, Duke...these are the assets that will get consideration and conversation. How many get moved?

 

I'm betting Duke, either Dozier or Escobar (just have a hunch both don't get moved), and Lynn (with the Twins eating a little salary).

[Vanimal46]

I'm not predicting this, but if you're looking for a trade that would move the needle, trade Pressly and Gibson. Those two will give the Twins a high end prospect we're all looking for.

[howieramone2]

 

My only prediction is there will be fewer moves than everyone anticipates.

 

If it was me calling the shots, I'd probably try to move even more than the five guys you've predicted are going to get traded. This organization has never committed to a fire sale/tear down/rebuild, so I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

I'll guess that Duke and Lynn get dealt for very underwhelming returns. Everybody else stays.

The tear down was when they traded for Meyer and May, and the complete rebuild followed. Sano and Buxton crapped the bed, they didn't die. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

[clone52]

 

The risk is overpaying to keep the status quo, which clearly isn't working, intact.

 

Overpaying for Dozier (my guess as to which one would get it if only one were to) would give "well, we paid Brian, now we need the young guys to step up more" excuse to fall back on.

 

Enough "bad signings" (Morrison, Lynn, the hypothetical overpaying of Dozier/Escobar) and the purse strings will tighten back up if there's no on-field results.

 

If they don't trade them, I'd absolutely offer one of the 2 a QO.  There is very little risk involved.

 

If you give Dozier a QO, he is not going to take it at all.  I guarentee he could absolutely get a 3/40 contract from someone and I don't see any way he accepts the QO.

 

A QO for Escobar, would be overpaying.  I still think its a better than 50% chance he doesn't accept it and goes for a multi-year deal.  Your risk is that he accepts it, but even if he does, what is the big deal?  In a perfect world next year, Gordon, Polanco and Sano man 2B, SS and 3B next year.  If they all stay healthy, well, you just paid your utility infielder $17 million, but you also probably had a pretty good season, so who cares.  In reality, those guys probably won't all stay healthy and have great years.  History has shown that Escobar is probably going to play 120 games a year, so he's more than a typically utility infielder.

[clone52]

 

I'm fine with all those predictions except Escobar. Losing Dozier would be fine because they've got Nick Gordon waiting in the wings. Who would replace Escobar? I'm against trading players unless you've got a replacement ready. Don't trade just because you're out of contention and that's what you're supposed to do.

 

Your post makes sense if Escobar was not a free agent this year.  They might lose him anyway, so why not trade him.  Honestly, if you do trade him, you just let Sano sink or swim the rest of the season.  If Sano gets hurt, its Adrianza, Astudillo, Motter, Petit or whoever.  None of those guys are in the plans as a regular for 2019, but maybe Escobar isn't either, so who really cares.

 

Also, if you trade him, it doesn't eliminate the possibility of signing him in the offseason.

[Tom Froemming]

 

The tear down was when they traded for Meyer and May, and the complete rebuild followed. Sano and Buxton crapped the bed, they didn't die. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

They also signed Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey that offseason. I'm not so sure I'd classify that as an attempt at a complete rebuild. The weighted averages for both their hitters and pitchers were right around league average in 2013.

 

The last time this franchise truly committed to a youth movement was 1999. That team sucked, but it was damn fun to watch and that investment in the young talent paid off in the long run. I'm not necessarily saying it's time to burn things to the ground to that level, but it'd be nice to see them really commit to a direction one way or the other.

[clone52]

Its probably also time to jump into the Yankees/Red Sox arms race.

 

Yankees got a reliever.

Red Sox got a starter.

 

Time to get serious with the Yankees about Lynn, Odorizzi or Gibson.

Time to get serious with the Red Sox about Rodney, Duke and even Dozier.

 

Keep working with the Brewers about Dozier and Escobar.

Talk to the Phillies about whoever.

Talk to the A's about whoever.

 

Try to pry a pitcher from the Yankees, or what about Thairo Estrada (2B/SS buried behind Torres and Gregorius)

 

I just read that the Red Sox are looking for a veteran reliever, maybe a 3B upgrade and questions about Pedroia coming back.  What if the Twins offered Escobar, Dozier, Duke and Pressley?  Would the Red Sox like that and what would they give up?  Escobar would be a termporary upgrade over Devers, Dozier is Pedroia insurance and the bullpen guys are nice.

 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Yep I see 2020 as the beginning of our next wave of talent.  Kirilof, Lewis, Graterol, and others should be ready or very close to ready by that time.  Our time is coming soon.  Not that they can't be good next year it is just that more reinforcements will be ready by 2020.  Just have to hope our competition doesn't build a better team before we do.

 

Replace the names you had there with Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Kepler and you have what they fed to us a few years back. I don't trust that this next "wave" will be all that you are thinking they are. Are some of them going to pan out? Yep, they will. Will more of them fail than pan out? Yep. I think it needs to be a measured approach. Dumping anyone that is under team control right now looking forward to 2020 or beyond I think is a mistake. If they think they have a team that will be ready to rock in 2020 or so, they should be looking to build a team that is ready for 1 or 2 of those stud prospects to contribute to. Remember, Buxton and Sano still have plenty of potential and if they come back and do what we were all told they were capable of, this team can be pretty good. 

 

You also have a pretty nice starting staff right now with a guy like Romero waiting to do his thing. A guy like Gibson or Pressly can be a part of any team that looks to contend in 2020.

Edited July 25, 2018 by Battle ur tail off

[Dman]

 

Replace the names you had there with Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Kepler and you have what they fed to us a few years back. I don't trust that this next "wave" will be all that you are thinking they are. Are some of them going to pan out? Yep, they will. Will more of them fail than pan out? Yep. I think it needs to be a measured approach. Dumping anyone that is under team control right now looking forward to 2020 or beyond I think is a mistake. If they think they have a team that will be ready to rock in 2020 or so, they should be looking to build a team that is ready for 1 or 2 of those stud prospects to contribute to. Remember, Buxton and Sano still have plenty of potential and if they come back and do what we were all told they were capable of, this team can be pretty good. 

 

You also have a pretty nice starting staff right now with a guy like Romero waiting to do his thing. A guy like Gibson or Pressly can be a part of any team that looks to contend in 2020.

 

You bet that is beauty of the next wave.  We can keep and maybe try to extend the players that we know are good and trade those we feel we can replace with younger options.  Or trade from our prospect surplus for known major league players.  We should just be in better position to plug holes than we are right now.  if Buxton and Sano return to decent players next year this team will already be much more dangerous.

 

No need to blow this team up but get value where you can right now because this season is pretty much over.

[Fritzderkat]

If I were the general manager of any other team in MLB, I wouldn't bother with any of the Twins you have named as possible tradees except Escobar and Gibson. And I wouldn't trade either of them if I were the Twins because as a fan, they're two of my favorites. Yeah, I know, that doesn't cut anything on the trade market but if you don't have a few guys you favor, what's the sense of rooting for a team? I like Rosario and Mauer, too, Berrios of course, but as for the rest I wouldn't miss any.

Trading Escobar reminds me of trading Eduardo Nunez, a versatile, glue-like guy who can play infield or outfield. I liked him, too. I like guys who put out each time they play.

I like Bobby Wilson for the same reason. 

[Fritzderkat]

And I like Ervin Santana.

[Nine of twelve]

I would think Rodney and Duke will be the easiest to trade because almost everyone in the postseason race has at least one reliever that's less accomplished than both of them. That means each of them would upgrade an existing bullpen.

[ChrisKnutson]

While it’s been well reported that the Dodger’s are looking for a high leverage reliever to be the bridge to Kenley Jansen, some are also saying they could really use another reliable and durable starter without injury concerns, unlike Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, and Rich Hill (maybe their entire rotation).

 

That being said, I believe the FO should be actively pursuing a deal with LA, sending Pressly and Gibson for Keibert Ruiz.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

The Twins would have to get quite the return if they're going to trade both players.

Edited July 25, 2018 by SF Twins Fan

[diehardtwinsfan]

Problem with the Brewers is that they don't add up quite well. They have some good pitching prospects, and you never turn that down, but I'd really want a C or 3B type in the high minors.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The Twins would have to get quite the return if they're going to trade both players.

 

I'd hate to see Gibson go because he's the clear #2 for this team right now and ideally would be a great #3-4 on a contending Twins team next year. 

 

But if they don't feel the team will have the pieces to win it all next year and can get a haul for Gibson + now, I guess it's a no-brainer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

The Twins would have to get quite the return if they're going to trade both players.

 

Considering the Brewers are supposedly in on Dozier and Escobar, I'd hope they could walk away with a higher ceiling guy like Peralta, especially if they are talking Gibson too.... They would have send out several top 10 guys plus some lower ranked upside guys for those 3.  

 

Looking at their system, Jake Nottingham looks somewhat interesting, though he's in the majors now. He wasn't ranked that high, but could fill a major need.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Your post makes sense if Escobar was not a free agent this year.  They might lose him anyway, so why not trade him.  Honestly, if you do trade him, you just let Sano sink or swim the rest of the season.  If Sano gets hurt, its Adrianza, Astudillo, Motter, Petit or whoever.  None of those guys are in the plans as a regular for 2019, but maybe Escobar isn't either, so who really cares.

 

Also, if you trade him, it doesn't eliminate the possibility of signing him in the offseason.

 

I'd rather keep Escobar and qualify him if the return is a marginal prospect or two.

 

Clubhouse presence is often overblown, but I don't think it is in his case. The great Twins teams were known for their good chemistry. He adds a lot of versatility to the team as well.

 

In the end you end up with a premium pick or another year of Escobar on a team that has another chance.

 

What are the odds that the system's greatest needs, whatever they might be, will be met by trading him? I'd say slim.

 

Better chance to address that with a top 100 pick next June.

Edited July 25, 2018 by Monkeypaws

[Andrew Thares]

 

They also signed Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey that offseason. I'm not so sure I'd classify that as an attempt at a complete rebuild. The weighted averages for both their hitters and pitchers were right around league average in 2013.

 

The last time this franchise truly committed to a youth movement was 1999. That team sucked, but it was damn fun to watch and that investment in the young talent paid off in the long run. I'm not necessarily saying it's time to burn things to the ground to that level, but it'd be nice to see them really commit to a direction one way or the other.

This... Absolutely this! 

[clone52]

 

I'd rather keep Escobar and qualify him if the return is a marginal prospect or two.

 

Clubhouse presence is often overblown, but I don't think it is in his case. The great Twins teams were known for their good chemistry. He adds a lot of versatility to the team as well.

 

In the end you end up with a premium pick or another year of Escobar on a team that has another chance.

 

What are the odds that the system's greatest needs, whatever they might be, will be met by trading him? I'd say slim.

 

Better chance to address that with a top 100 pick next June.

 

I'd be A-ok with that plan.  However, if he were thrown in to a bigger deal to pull in a bigger prospect, I'm A-ok with that too.

[akmanak]

There is no way Dozier goes to the Brewers. I don't get the daydreaming on this board. He is having an awful year.

[Dman]

 

There is no way Dozier goes to the Brewers. I don't get the daydreaming on this board. He is having an awful year.

 

Right now on Trade rumors they are saying 6 teams are interested in Moustakas.  You look at his and Doziers career stats and they are very close to the same.  Even this year their stats are fairly close but with Dozier having a down first half Moustakas is better so far.  The thing is it is pretty established that  about this time Dozier goes on one of his hot streaks. Also he is unlikely to regress any further than where he is right now so he should move back to career norms.  Personally I'd say there is a very good chance he gets moved.  

 

Look for what Moustakas nets and expect a similar to slightly better return for Dozier.

[tvagle]

While I'd prefer to see moves as suggested in this post...i see things playing out like this:

 

Twins will get lose on 7/30 to be 5 back of Cleveland at the deadline and by then it will be too late to move anyone due to the Blue Jays, Rays, O's and other sellers will have moved everyone on their 25 man roster

 

Once again left holding the "we got a chance" bag with nothing in it!