Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[Mr. Brooks]

My point is are we out of luck if Kohl doesn't have an out pitch like KLaw says? Can an out pitch be developed from an average or below average pitch?

 

These are things I don't know. If it can be done I'd move him to the bullpen and have him throw that pitch over and over again.

Johan Santana developed his changeup.

[yarnivek1972]

Johan Santana developed his changeup.

At age 22. Stewart is almost 24.

[Mr. Brooks]

At age 22. Stewart is almost 24.

My bad, I didn't see that qualifier in the question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

At age 22. Stewart is almost 24.

Santana also went into a professional pitching academy at age 16. There’s a reason he was available in the Rule V draft at age 21.

 

I’m not saying that means Stewart will figure out his stuff and refine a pitch but 24 years old isn’t exactly ancient. Just ask Roy Halladay.

[S.]

 

Just ask Roy Halladay.

I got some bad news for you

[Twins33]

I got some bad news for you

I had temporarily forgotten until you just said that.

[wyowib]

 

It’s great that we have a thread based on outside perspectives, especially when the source has Bowden's credentials. I doubt it’s going to influence the detractors that insist the problem is the incompetence of the front office but hopefully a handful of them will take in what the people who are paid to assess these moves have to say. The articles on the 2018 deadline moves provides the rest of us a little confidence that the organization is doing what they can to make us sustainable winners. Here are two more outside perspectives.

 

CBS --- 

 

SB Nation 

 

The icing on the cake would be signing Escobar this winter.

This.  It reminds me of a few years ago when, quite a few, were posting about essentially "drinking the kool-aid" when it came to prospect value, completely ignoring that non-Twins fans were hyping the current wave in their analysis.  This FO has gotten, from non-Twins fans, great marks on their potential when hired, and in this last off-season with the people they've brought in to realize their vision (coaches, trainers, analytics people).  I don't get the constant judgement of their moves before they've even made them, 2017 draft and whether they could sign Enlow as an example (and when they did, posters who questioned if they "over thought" or "tried to get too cute" responded with "but it might not have worked out").  Most on this site wanted change from the previous FO, but a vocal portion don't feel comfortable with what a change in the process actually means.  Less than 2 years ago the Twins were the worst team in baseball, give the new guys a chance, non-Twins fans think we're in for good times if we do.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I got some bad news for you

Ouch. Good point.

[Mike Sixel]

Zips projects Morrison with a 26% chance of hitting under .200 this year....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-a-special-year-for-the-mendoza-line/

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Zips projects Morrison with a 26% chance of hitting under .200 this year....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-a-special-year-for-the-mendoza-line/

 

He cracked the .200 mark after a total of ten of his 92 games this year. I guess saying he has a 74% chance of ending the season above Mendoza would be considered wildly optimistic? 

[Mike Sixel]

Matty C
3:03 Which non-Cleveland AL Central team wins the division next?

 

Meg Rowley
3:04 I'm inclined to say the Twins. That White Sox rebuild is looking pretty murky at the moment.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meg-rowley-fangraphs-chat-8-7-18/

[jimmer]

Matty C

3:03 Which non-Cleveland AL Central team wins the division next?

 

Meg Rowley

3:04 I'm inclined to say the Twins. That White Sox rebuild is looking pretty murky at the moment.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meg-rowley-fangraphs-chat-8-7-18/

should have asked which year that might happen ;-)

[Mike Sixel]

RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?

 

Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.

 

bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?

 

Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.

 

Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.

Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/08/09/klawchat-8-9-18/

[Mike Sixel]

I asked this on the minor league forum......if Buxton doesn't hit next year, would you move Lewis to CF to take advantage of his speed and hitting?

[Mike Sixel]

long read, on a short play....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/willians-astudillo-pulled-off-the-hidden-ball-trick/

[TheLeviathan]

 

I asked this on the minor league forum......if Buxton doesn't hit next year, would you move Lewis to CF to take advantage of his speed and hitting?

 

That depends.....what does his defense look like at SS and in CF?  If he's elite in both, I probably keep him at SS.  If he is significantly better in CF, then I probably move him there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That depends.....what does his defense look like at SS and in CF?  If he's elite in both, I probably keep him at SS.  If he is significantly better in CF, then I probably move him there.

 

We'll never know, because he'll stay at SS until they move him.....if you know what I mean.

 

Take Harper, the Nats moved him off of C partly to get him up sooner, rather than later. I'm guessing that Lewis could learn CF in half a year....but how long until he is a really good SS? I have no idea....

[TheLeviathan]

 

We'll never know, because he'll stay at SS until they move him.....if you know what I mean.

 

Take Harper, the Nats moved him off of C partly to get him up sooner, rather than later. I'm guessing that Lewis could learn CF in half a year....but how long until he is a really good SS? I have no idea....

 

I'm not sure how good he is now.   That's the thing, I have a lot of distrust in minor league scouting reports about defense, so I just have to trust the organization is making good decisions in that regard.

 

It might be time to consider Kepler a full-time CFer next year if Buxton can't hit.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh, I was curious how many teams have moved this many players.....and too lazy to look.....and in fairness, no way Jeff would know either....

 

mike sixel
9:30 Has any team unloaded as many players in July and August as MN has this year? Can they send Morrison or Forsythe or Santana out still and keep it going? They don't have many guys left to deal....

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:31 It was a roster made up of a whole bunch of contract-year players. This is what happens to those
Wouldn't be shocked to see Ervin Santana on the move

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-8-10-18/

[Mike Sixel]

There is just less and less stuff about non-playoff teams online....but here is one:

 

Prouster
12:20 Royce Lewis is hitting well at the high-A level—wOBA .421, wRC+ 165. He just turned 19 do you think there’s a chance he could debut for the Twins sometime next year?

Kiley McDaniel
12:22 He's really good, saw him a few days ago. He's the type of talent where that is on the table, but comes down to how the org wants to handle it and MIN seems on the conservative side.

 

12:34 Do you have a comp for Alex Kirilloff? What's his upside?

Kiley McDaniel
12:35 Don't see a perfect one, but it's easy plus hit and plus raw with maybe 55 in game power, solid in right field. Just pick an elite LHH with hit over power and you're pretty close.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-8-15-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Neil
2:11 Lewis Thorpe since 6/13: 28.9 K-BB%, 2.33 ERA, 2.07 FIP. Is he a 50FV yet?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:12 No and with his injury history he won't be. Was 90-94 with plus curveball and avg slider last night. Chance to be a #4 (which is a 50) but gotta bake risk into the FV.

 

Mike
2:18 DO you think Nick Gordon will turn it around in the minors and go on to be a big time player? And will Dustin Fowler and/or Ahmed Rosario have a bounce back year next year?

Eric A Longenhagen
2:19 I think Gordon is an avg everyday 2B. Fowler will be a low OBP CF with pop, Rosario is a 7 shortstop with 6 raw power and a horrible swing so who knows?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-chat-8-16-18/

[Mike Sixel]

JG
2:04 Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?

 

Keith Law
2:04 He's 22 and hit everywhere else. I don't think he's a star but I believe I've been consistent the last few years in saying he's a regular, and someone who'll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

 

clb
2:13 Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?

 

Keith Law
2:13 Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don't think top 15, not yet.

 

Neil
2:14 Lewis Thorpe's stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?

 

Keith Law
2:14 I only saw him in DC and it wasn't a promising outing. I'd be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn't quite there.

 

Brett
2:35 Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).

 

Keith Law
2:35 No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don't hit.

 

Dan
2:36 What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?

 

Keith Law
2:37 If you think he can start, he's a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there's a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

 

ck
3:12 There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins' fire sale - from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible - would you agree?  Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can't pretend they're in a position to win soon.

 

Keith Law
3:12 Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

[Ben Noble]

 

Neil
2:11 Lewis Thorpe since 6/13: 28.9 K-BB%, 2.33 ERA, 2.07 FIP. Is he a 50FV yet?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:12 No and with his injury history he won't be. Was 90-94 with plus curveball and avg slider last night. Chance to be a #4 (which is a 50) but gotta bake risk into the FV.

 

I've come across references to Thorpe's 'injury history' a few times recently. Pretty sure he's just had the one injury to his UCL that required TJ. Also had a bad case of mono coming off TJ recovery so they shut him down for a second straight year, but that's obviously not an injury. Am I forgetting something?

[Mike Sixel]

Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins
Level: Hi-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 2   FV: 55
Line: 4-for-4, 2 2B

Notes
Because of a Tommy John surgery that scrubbed away his 2017 campaign, Alex Kirilloff has now played just a little over one complete pro season in the minor leagues. In 168 games, he has slashed .337/.377/.545 and is on pace to reach Double-A at some point next year, when he’ll be the age of the college juniors in the 2018 draft class, many of whom will spend their summers in advanced rookie ball. If we’re going to nitpick Kirilloff’s profile, it’s that he’s a corner-only bat with a very aggressive approach. But he has all-fields power and advanced barrel control, so he has a great chance to hit and hit for power even if he doesn’t develop selectivity.

 

 

Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Level: Triple-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 26   FV: 40
Line: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 R, 9 K

Notes
Lewis Thorpe sat 90-94 last night and mixed in two good breaking balls — a slower curveball with 12-6 shape and a two-planed slider — to various locations, including in the zone for strikes. His fastball runs up and to his arm side and sometimes they sail on him, but they slip past hitters in the zone, as well. He has a starter’s mix and good pitchability. His FV is always going to be lower than his stuff would otherwise dictate due to his lengthy injury history, but he could be a league-average starter as soon as next year.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-8-16-2018/

[PseudoSABR]

 

Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins

Level: Triple-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 26   FV: 40
Line: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 R, 9 K

Notes
Lewis Thorpe sat 90-94 last night and mixed in two good breaking balls — a slower curveball with 12-6 shape and a two-planed slider — to various locations, including in the zone for strikes. His fastball runs up and to his arm side and sometimes they sail on him, but they slip past hitters in the zone, as well. He has a starter’s mix and good pitchability. His FV is always going to be lower than his stuff would otherwise dictate due to his lengthy injury history, but he could be a league-average starter as soon as next year.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-8-16-2018/

Thorpe's FV seems ridiculous with his being this close to the majors and this far removed from his injuries.

[Lonestar]

 

Thorpe's FV seems ridiculous with his being this close to the majors and this far removed from his injuries.

Agreed.  AJ Puk is the only pitcher with an FV of at least 55  who has had TJS. On the other hand, Puk is 7 months older, has only pitched 2 games above A+ and hasn't pitched since surgery.  Seems like an aberration.

[jkcarew]

 

I asked this on the minor league forum......if Buxton doesn't hit next year, would you move Lewis to CF to take advantage of his speed and hitting?

I've posted that I think Lewis stays at SS in the minors...and that the feeling with athlete's in Lewis's rare class is that they could walk right on to a major league field and play outfield, where there is little dependence on technical aspects.

 

I wonder...turning this question around...what if Buxton finds his way and is healthy...and you end up not trusting Lewis at SS?  Do you put him at a corner?  I think in that hypothetical scenario, I'd try to make him a second-baseman.  I'd rather have that athleticism in the middle of the field.  But, the bottom line is that I don't think Lewis's defense has to dictate when he arrives.  When they think his bat is legitimately ready, I think they'll have some choices regarding where to fit him defensively...just based on his elite athleticism and unique skill set.  Which is nice.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

12:34 Do you have a comp for Alex Kirilloff? What's his upside?

Kiley McDaniel
12:35 Don't see a perfect one, but it's easy plus hit and plus raw with maybe 55 in game power, solid in right field. Just pick an elite LHH with hit over power and you're pretty close.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-8-15-18/

 

Awesome, I get to pick? I pick Ted Williams.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Thorpe's FV seems ridiculous with his being this close to the majors and this far removed from his injuries.

 

I think his FV will go up in the off-season rankings. It was a bit of a miss not to revise at the mid-season point, but I'm sure it can be tough to stay on top of 30 organizations once you get past the top prospects.

[nicksaviking]

 

Thorpe's FV seems ridiculous with his being this close to the majors and this far removed from his injuries.

 

I'm just going to assume these guys are frightened they'll get mono if it appears they're kissing his butt.