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[nicksaviking]

In the ALC, 3 teams garnered an additional 50FV prospect (Witt is 55FV actually) via the draft. There are a total of 18 prospects with a FV of 50 or above, and the Twins hold 5 of them, as do CWS and Detroit, and Cleveland has 4. So in terms of high-end talent in the pipeline, it appears that outside of KCR, things are reasonably even, with CWS and Detroit maybe having a slight edge because of a couple of mercurial talents.

 

This evenness extends down, with the Twins having maybe a couple more guys in the 45FV category. 

 

But they still hold a considerable and unquestionable advantage when it comes to depth. They have 41 prospects who get at least a 40FV grade. Cleveland's fairly close, with 34 such prospects. KCR has 28, CWS and Detroit each have 24.

 

It's interesting, to me at least, to note some of the names who can only muster a 40FV. It includes Walner, Rooker, Gordon, Gonsalves, Enlow, Alcala, Blankenhorn, Baddoo, Raley, and Wade, among many others. ANd guys like Jaylin Davis and Zander Wiel are still at 35FV. I just find it interesting that so many of the prospects that we get cranked up about aren't that highly regarded at the moment. It's fluid when it comes to individual names, we know that.

The Twins have a lot of corner-type prospects who by default will get their evals cranked down. Those guys still make up 56% of an AL lineup though which is one of several reasons I put much less weight on gradings dealing with defensive considerations.

[Mike Sixel]

Out of curiousity, where did Areaez rate coming into this year? 35 or less?

 

Which simply proves no one really knows how a guy will do at the MLB level until he starts playing at the MLB level.

It proves no such thing. Rankings turn out to be fairly accurate, in the sample world. Being wrong about one of a thousand guys does not invalidate anything.

[jkcarew]

Do you remember Tyler Robertson?  Also 6-5 with the physique of a defensive end, but his fastball was 85-88 mph.

 

And Duran works 95-99...what does one have to do with the other? The question of whether a starting prospect ends up a reliever has nothing to do with velocity. Robertson was good endurance-wise as a minor league starter. Was turned into a reliever because he couldn’t get anyone out as a starter. That’s not a problem Duran is having. Command seems to be his challenge.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I did send a follow up, indicating I was talking about KLAW and MLBPipeline....since his reply was a bit "you are stupid to ask"....

 

I took it more that his reply "people are stupid for dropping him"

[Mike Sixel]

I took it more that his reply "people are stupid for dropping him"

Could be.

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler and Polanco in this section...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

[Jham]

Kepler and Polanco in this section...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

Funny, I was literally just thinking about whether I would offer Kepler for DeGrom...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Funny, I was literally just thinking about whether I would offer Kepler for DeGrom...

It'd be a good deal for the Twins (and fair talent swap, probably) but I don't see it really helping the Mets, whose current organizational strategy appears to be "light yourself on fire and run around screaming".

[nicksaviking]

 

Kepler and Polanco in this section...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

 

Buxton was an honorable mention, but no sign of Berrios yet, looks like he'll be top 30.

[nicksaviking]

 

It'd be a good deal for the Twins (and fair talent swap, probably) but I don't see it really helping the Mets, whose current organizational strategy appears to be "light yourself on fire and run around screaming".

 

I really hope the Mets new GM/agent is as bad at trades as he is managing his field personnel. but I also don't see it helping the Twins this year considering Kepler is fairly essential to the lineup. Maybe in the off season should the Twins have a replacement ready to go for Kepler.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really hope the Mets new GM/agent is as bad at trades as he is managing his field personnel. but I also don't see it helping the Twins this year considering Kepler is fairly essential to the lineup. Maybe in the off season should the Twins have a replacement ready to go for Kepler.

Kepler is pretty critical for the offense but I think the net gain is larger with an addition to the pitching staff, particularly the top of the rotation.

 

Either way, unlikely to happen so it's really a moot point.

[amjgt]

 

Funny, I was literally just thinking about whether I would offer Kepler for DeGrom...

 

On the prospect side, what's the absolute most you'd give up for deGrom. I'm talking, "hold your nose, say a prayer, swallow hard, and slowly say yes" absolute most.

 

I'd do Royce Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon.... and if they asked real nice, I'd probably throw in a  couple 15-20 guys. I realize that's a ton of prospect capital, but man, you're getting, and absolute ace for the top of your rotation. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

On the prospect side, what's the absolute most you'd give up for deGrom. I'm talking, "hold your nose, say a prayer, swallow hard, and slowly say yes" absolute most.

 

I'd do Royce Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon.... and if they asked real nice, I'd probably throw in a  couple 15-20 guys. I realize that's a ton of prospect capital, but man, you're getting, and absolute ace for the top of your rotation. 

Whoa, nooooooooo way on that.

 

Degrom is a great player, no doubt about it. But I'm not giving up half the farm for a guy paid fair market value for his services. If Degrom was still in arb or signed to a team-friendly extension, maybe... but not at $25-30m per season.

 

Also, he's not young.

[amjgt]

 

Whoa, nooooooooo way on that.

 

Degrom is a great player, no doubt about it. But I'm not giving up half the farm for a guy paid fair market value for his services. If Degrom was still in arb or signed to a team-friendly extension, maybe... but not at $25-30m per season.

 

Also, he's not young.

 

What can I say.... I want an Ace.

[twins1095]

 

On the prospect side, what's the absolute most you'd give up for deGrom. I'm talking, "hold your nose, say a prayer, swallow hard, and slowly say yes" absolute most.

 

I'd do Royce Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon.... and if they asked real nice, I'd probably throw in a  couple 15-20 guys. I realize that's a ton of prospect capital, but man, you're getting, and absolute ace for the top of your rotation. 

 

Based on past compensation for ace's with roughly Degrom's profile and age (or younger), you should only have to give up 1 top 50 prospects and MAYBE 1 other top 100 prospects (although most deals haven't had multiple top 100 prospects) along with some other guys outside the top 100.

 

Carlos Gomez (top 50-60 prospect) was the only top 100 prospect the Twins got for Santana.  Ian Kennedy (top 50-70 prospect) was the only top 100 prospect the Tigers got for Max Sherzer, etc.  

 

Theoretically based on past deals something like Graterol, Rooker, Gordon or Lewis, Durhan, lower minor league prospects should be plenty and would actually be more value for an ace than historically most teams have given up.  

 

Lewis + Graterol + MORE is a huge overpay.  I get that you're willing to do it especially with a ends justify the means mentality and an ace on your staff for a potential championship run, but in terms of value you are overpaying by quite a bit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Whoa, nooooooooo way on that.

 

Degrom is a great player, no doubt about it. But I'm not giving up half the farm for a guy paid fair market value for his services. If Degrom was still in arb or signed to a team-friendly extension, maybe... but not at $25-30m per season.

 

Also, he's not young.

I see where you are coming from, but -- do you have another method of acquiring that good of a pitcher? No one on the current trade market looks as good as him.... Gerrit Cole is a FA but you will have to outbid the Astros and others, and that will cost a lot more than the ~$130 mil due to de Grom, and won't help you in 2019.

[jorgenswest]

I went to baseball.tradevalues.com and entered in DeGrom who had a trade value of 55.2.

 

Kirilloff, Thorpe and Rortvedt match that value exactly.

 

Larnach, Javier, Duran and Rooker do also but were not enough. They generated a reality check message directing me to add a player of high value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I went to baseball.tradevalues.com and entered in DeGrom who had a trade value of 55.2.

Kirilloff, Thorpe and Rortvedt match that value exactly.

Larnach, Javier, Duran and Rooker do also but were not enough. They generated a reality check message directing me to add a player of high value.

 

I'd do that. With all the OF depth, and Jeffers? Yup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Based on past compensation for ace's with roughly Degrom's profile and age (or younger), you should only have to give up 1 top 50 prospects and MAYBE 1 other top 100 prospects (although most deals haven't had multiple top 100 prospects) along with some other guys outside the top 100.

 

Carlos Gomez (top 50-60 prospect) was the only top 100 prospect the Twins got for Santana. Ian Kennedy (top 50-70 prospect) was the only top 100 prospect the Tigers got for Max Sherzer, etc.

 

Theoretically based on past deals something like Graterol, Rooker, Gordon or Lewis, Durhan, lower minor league prospects should be plenty and would actually be more value for an ace than historically most teams have given up.

 

Lewis + Graterol + MORE is a huge overpay. I get that you're willing to do it especially with a ends justify the means mentality and an ace on your staff for a potential championship run, but in terms of value you are overpaying by quite a bit.

Santana was 11 years ago and the GM that traded him has long since been removed from baseball personnel decisions. Scherzer was a prospect at the time himself, I don't know why you included him. De Grom is an ace right now and controlled 3.5-5.5 seasons, albeit at high salaries.

 

Sale was younger/cheaper but fetched the #1 overall prospect plus a top 30-40 guy. Quintana was no ace but he fetched a top 10 guy. Hamels fetched a couple top 100 guys and others.

 

If you actually want De Grom now and for that long, no, you can't lead your offer with an injured Graterol and Rooker. If you think that is all he is worth to you, then you are saying you don't want him and he will remain a Met. He is not getting dealt for that in 2019.

[Mike Sixel]

3:06
jose: Does Cleveland end up winning the AL Central? OR are the Twins real?

3:06
Meg Rowley: I like the Twins for it

[Mike Sixel]

Scott
3:59 What do the Twins have to give up to get Giles and Stroman

 

Steve Adams
4:00 I assume they're not amenable to moving either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, which would mean someone like Trevor Larnach, Brusdar Graterol or Jordan Balazovic needs to headline a deal. And if they're not moving one of their top two prospects, they may need to include two of that group plus some lesser-regarded pieces.

 

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-7-16-19-5658.html

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I see where you are coming from, but -- do you have another method of acquiring that good of a pitcher? No one on the current trade market looks as good as him.... Gerrit Cole is a FA but you will have to outbid the Astros and others, and that will cost a lot more than the ~$130 mil due to de Grom, and won't help you in 2019.

I'd honestly rather try to pry Greinke away from Arizona or pursue the other Mets starter. I'd be able to pay less in prospect capital for Greinke or pay arb years for a pitcher who's good but not deGrom good in Syndergaard.

 

I don't think giving up that kind of prospect haul for the right to pay 20% of your payroll to a single pitcher is a viable long-term plan.

[nicksaviking]

 

What can I say.... I want an Ace.

 

He's already 31, I'm not sure you can call him that much longer. 

[Vanimal46]

He's already 31, I'm not sure you can call him that much longer.

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer need AARP cards then.

[twins1095]

 

Santana was 11 years ago and the GM that traded him has long since been removed from baseball personnel decisions. Scherzer was a prospect at the time himself, I don't know why you included him. De Grom is an ace right now and controlled 3.5-5.5 seasons, albeit at high salaries.

Sale was younger/cheaper but fetched the #1 overall prospect plus a top 30-40 guy. Quintana was no ace but he fetched a top 10 guy. Hamels fetched a couple top 100 guys and others.

If you actually want De Grom now and for that long, no, you can't lead your offer with an injured Graterol and Rooker. If you think that is all he is worth to you, then you are saying you don't want him and he will remain a Met. He is not getting dealt for that in 2019.

 

Good post.  I hadn't seen some of those other valuations.  I would argue that if those are the high and low end of potential ace deals...that if you offer the high end you will likely regret it and the low end you'd likely be pretty happy with it. 

 

Not saying this is how it would work out, but if you traded Buxton/Berrios for Degrom would that be worth it?

[Vanimal46]

He's already 31, I'm not sure you can call him that much longer.

Ironically, 6 out of 10 pitchers on the bWAR leaderboard are 31 and older. It will be 7 out of 10 in 5 days when Strasburg turns 31...

[luckylager]

 

Ironically, 6 out of 10 pitchers on the bWAR leaderboard are 31 and older. It will be 7 out of 10 in 5 days when Strasburg turns 31...

 

A little too ironic, and yeah I really do think…

[Brock Beauchamp]

One other thing that should be noted about deGrom is that the Mets are paying him like a 5+ WAR pitcher and he has met that threshold that all of once in his career. Sure, there's a chance he'll reach that mark this year but probably not by much and it's far from a given.

 

He's not Clayton Kershaw. He's not even Chris Sale.

 

On top of the other issues that come with looting the farm for an expensive pitcher, I don't have a ton of faith he's going to be great going forward given his age and just how much of an outlier 2018 was compared to the rest of his career.

 

Good? Sure. Very good? Probably. Great? Eh... that's a hard one to answer.

[Linus]

I’d rather have Syndergaard and have no problem starting with Lewis. Basically I would make available anybody in the system other than Graterol Or Balazovic

[PseudoSABR]

Minnesota Twins: Acquire Noah Syndergaard

The Twins have no glaring weaknesses. Entering Monday, they led the AL in runs per game, just a hair better than the Yankees and Red Sox. Minnesota had the fewest blown saves at any point of a game in the majors with just six (Rocco Baldelli's handling of the bullpen has been one of the underrated keys to the season). The rotation ranked second in the AL in ERA behind only Tampa Bay. The Twins have a chance at the best record in the AL and home-field advantage -- and I would think avoiding a potential Game 5 or Game 7 at Yankee Stadium or Minute Maid Park is something to push for.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have focused on small, cost-efficient moves during their tenure running the Twins. Now it's time to think big. If the Mets make Syndergaard available, he's a great fit for Minnesota -- for 2019 and beyond, since starters Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are all free agents at season's end. They'd probably have to part with top prospect Royce Lewis or outfielder Alex Kirilloff and a pitcher like Brusdar Graterol or Jordan Balazovic, but Syndergaard could be a beast away from the circus in Queens. Plus, as they say, flags fly forever.

David Schoenfield of ESPN

 

Didn't see this posted, and it seemed somewhat relevant.