Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[PseudoSABR]

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/add-indians-twins-to-list-of-teams-defending-payroll-thriftiness/

 

Not a positive look ....

If the Indians can do it, why not the Twins? Central Tradition /brofist

[old nurse]

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/add-indians-twins-to-list-of-teams-defending-payroll-thriftiness/

 

Not a positive look ....

As justification for his position on the Twins he used DJ LeMahieu  or Lowrie should have been signed vs Schoop. 12 or 10 million versus 7.5. Really poor choices to use considering the poor records of LeMahieu away from Coors and Lowrie when not  playing for Oakland.  The difference in salary is is not all that great. The drum of cheapness must be banged.

[Mike Sixel]

As justification for his position on the Twins he used DJ LeMahieu or Lowrie should have been signed vs Schoop. 12 or 10 million versus 7.5. Really poor choices to use considering the poor records of LeMahieu away from Coors and Lowrie when not playing for Oakland. The difference in salary is is not all that great. The drum of cheapness must be banged.

That was a small part of the post, and misses the point, but he did use them as part of it, yes.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Cleveland FO: Winning the division is unsustainable, so we must become worse.

 

Minnesota FO: Since we cannot catch Cleveland, it is pointless to make the team better.

 

I mean, posters here can nod their heads and continue to go along for the ride, but something really foul is happening and thankfully national people are starting to point it out.

 

 

Edit: I guess I should add the disclaimer that it's just my opinion

[TheLeviathan]

Minnesota is hardly the only place this drum is being banged.  

[bird]

 

Cleveland FO: Winning the division is unsustainable, so we must become worse.

Minnesota FO: Since we cannot catch Cleveland, it is pointless to make the team better.

I mean, posters here can nod their heads and continue to go along for the ride, but something really foul is happening and thankfully national people are starting to point it out.


Edit: I guess I should add the disclaimer that it's just my opinion

 

 

Yeah, something is clearly changing, although I wouldn't necessarily classify it as foul.

 

These are billion dollar businesses with massive cost structures and variable revenue streams which have gone in their favor for years and years. Most clubs are no longer run as ma and pa gift shops. They've become more operationally competent. I'm guessing they see some things in the forecast that are more foreboding than we think. I for one believe we'll see a very painful industry recession soon. Everyone deserves some of the blame, IMO. The whole financial cost structure has reached a point of total insanity.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah, something is clearly changing, although I wouldn't necessarily classify it as foul.

 

These are billion dollar businesses with massive cost structures and variable revenue streams which have gone in their favor for years and years. Most clubs are no longer run as ma and pa gift shops. They've become more operationally competent. I'm guessing they see some things in the forecast that are more foreboding than we think. I for one believe we'll see a very painful industry recession soon. Everyone deserves some of the blame, IMO. The whole financial cost structure has reached a point of total insanity.

Thanks, that's a much more tempered and measured version of the thing that came out of my mouth, though I still have points I'd like to argue. To be continued on another thread at another date.

[Mike Sixel]

Are the Twins blowing it, “it” being “a theoretical window to compete”? Or are they wisely recognizing that their young stars aren’t developing like they expected and holding off on mortgaging the future future for a 2nd place AL Central finish?

 

A: I think they’re blowing it. As noted above, the Indians can be had. The Twins don’t really want to get ’em, though. As to why, you’d have to ask the Twins.

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/30/twitter-mailbag-6/

[amjgt]

Yeah, something is clearly changing, although I wouldn't necessarily classify it as foul.

 

These are billion dollar businesses with massive cost structures and variable revenue streams which have gone in their favor for years and years. Most clubs are no longer run as ma and pa gift shops. They've become more operationally competent. I'm guessing they see some things in the forecast that are more foreboding than we think. I for one believe we'll see a very painful industry recession soon. Everyone deserves some of the blame, IMO. The whole financial cost structure has reached a point of total insanity.

One other thing worth noting, I think, is that as teams have changed hands (for massive sums of money) over the years, many of them lost their ownership’s link to the community.

 

As owners losing touch with their communities, they’ve become less willing to do things “for the sake of the fans”

[bighat]

 

A: I think they’re blowing it. As noted above, the Indians can be had. The Twins don’t really want to get ’em, though. As to why, you’d have to ask the Twins.

 

I agree that they're gift-wrapping the division for the Indians. I am also frustrated.

 

Why, you asked? I think you can point at the 2017 wild card game - that loss spooked the front office. For some reason, they seem to believe that if they're going to enter the playoffs as underdogs, they'd rather not be there. Odd strategy considering the Twins aren't ever likely to be favored over an AL East team in October.

[old nurse]

 

That was a small part of the post, and misses the point, but he did use them as part of it, yes.

When the Indians can't even draw 2 million fans for a multiple time division winning club then the spending will not be sustainable.  The GM was correct in the spending was not sustainable. .  Why look any further into a GM's statement when you do not have to.

The unsigned free agents are all some sort of proof that teams are being cheap. There is no corresponding analysis showing the sustainability of the long term contracts the players and agents are demanding.  When there is you can call fiscal responsibility cheapness.

[Mr. Brooks]

When the Indians can't even draw 2 million fans for a multiple time division winning club then the spending will not be sustainable. The GM was correct in the spending was not sustainable. . Why look any further into a GM's statement when you do not have to.

The unsigned free agents are all some sort of proof that teams are being cheap. There is no corresponding analysis showing the sustainability of the long term contracts the players and agents are demanding. When there is you can call fiscal responsibility cheapness.

Only about 27% of mlb revenue comes from attendance, so I'm not sure dropping attendance spells doom for mlb revenue.

[DocBauer]

FWIW...and it may be worth nothing. But I work for a communication company. ESPN has been in trouble for the past few years. Unlike other channels, they base their rates on the number of subscribers. Notice how they have been changing programming and hosts of programs, etc? Now, I'm in a low level position, but the FCC has added and changed various "sports" taxes to cable subscribers the past couple of years. As we hear it, it's an attempt to bail out ESPN/Disney...perhaps others...from debt and their inflated contracts. FWIW

[Mike Sixel]

When the Indians can't even draw 2 million fans for a multiple time division winning club then the spending will not be sustainable.  The GM was correct in the spending was not sustainable. .  Why look any further into a GM's statement when you do not have to.

The unsigned free agents are all some sort of proof that teams are being cheap. There is no corresponding analysis showing the sustainability of the long term contracts the players and agents are demanding.  When there is you can call fiscal responsibility cheapness.

Revenues and team values are growing faster than spending. That's a very sustainable business model. The data is publicly available. But I guess labor is somehow greedy.

[beckmt]

 

When the Indians can't even draw 2 million fans for a multiple time division winning club then the spending will not be sustainable.  The GM was correct in the spending was not sustainable. .  Why look any further into a GM's statement when you do not have to.

The unsigned free agents are all some sort of proof that teams are being cheap. There is no corresponding analysis showing the sustainability of the long term contracts the players and agents are demanding.  When there is you can call fiscal responsibility cheapness.

you can call it lining the owner's pockets cheapness.  Baseball has joined football as a sport where most owners can make very good money by being cheap.  The bulk of the revenue no longer comes from ticket sales, but TV contracts, radio contracts and other items.

[old nurse]

 

Only about 27% of mlb revenue comes from attendance, so I'm not sure dropping attendance spells doom for mlb revenue.

The Indians were drawing 3 million back in the day. The Forbes estimate on revenue per fan is $86. Getting another half million fans is about what the dollars not being spent to be called cheap,

[Mr. Brooks]

you can call it lining the owner's pockets cheapness. Baseball has joined football as a sport where most owners can make very good money by being cheap. The bulk of the revenue no longer comes from ticket sales, but TV contracts, radio contracts and other items.

NFL players are guaranteed a minimum of 47% of revenue. NBA is 49%, NHL is 50%.

NFL seems right in line with the other cap/floor leagues to me.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Indians were drawing 3 million back in the day. The Forbes estimate on revenue per fan is $8. Getting another half million fans is about what the dollars not being spent to be called cheap,

How much did they get from media deals back in the day? How much now?

MLB revenue has increased every year, any money lost from lower attendance has been more than made up from other avenues.

[old nurse]

 

 

you can call it lining the owner's pockets cheapness.  Baseball has joined football as a sport where most owners can make very good money by being cheap.  The bulk of the revenue no longer comes from ticket sales, but TV contracts, radio contracts and other items.

The Giants fought tooth and nail to keep the A's from moving to Santa Clara and you are trying to downplay the significance of stadium revenue.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Giants fought tooth and nail to keep the A's from moving to Santa Clara and you are trying to downplay the significance of stadium revenue.

Business owners fight tooth and nail for every additional dollar they can profit. That's a far cry from being an unsustainable business model. There is plenty of gray area between "owners could make even more money if they drew more fans", and "this decline in attendance has doomed their business model".

 

Personally, I say just tie payroll to revenue like the other leagues do, and be done with it. But, we'll see if that gains any traction.

[nicksaviking]

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/27/add-indians-twins-to-list-of-teams-defending-payroll-thriftiness/

 

Not a positive look ....

 

I'm not comfortable making accusations, but things sure are shaping up as if the owners are collectively planning ahead for CBA negotiations. None of the big teams are jumping the cap threshold any more, and it's starting to look like all of the mid to lower revenue teams are staying in their lanes as far as market size and expected revenue/salary figures go. I mean wow, here's the current projected payrolls:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

That lines up really closely to market size with the White Sox exceedingly low position being the only significant outlier (Ugh, Harper and Machado?)

 

Looks to me like the teams are trying to establish base lines for lower salary caps and/or salary floor. I'd like a salary cap similar to every other pro league which the MLBPA would oppose, but the MLBPA absolutely should push for a salary floor, and a significant one, say $140M? If the owners push back with having a salary cap then they should push that floor figure higher somewhere within $40M of the cap the owners want, which should be no lower than it is now, with mandatory increases as revenue goes up.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Giants fought tooth and nail to keep the A's from moving to Santa Clara and you are trying to downplay the significance of stadium revenue.

 

I'd think they'd be more concerned about no longer being the primary television market for Santa Clara. San Jose too as it neighbors Santa Clara and is the largest city in the Bay Area. Oakland gets the east side of the bay, San Francisco gets the stuff to the south. Or at least I'm guessing that's how they see it.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Looks like they're still looking to make some moves.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not comfortable making accusations, but things sure are shaping up as if the owners are collectively planning ahead for CBA negotiations. None of the big teams are jumping the cap threshold any more, and it's starting to look like all of the mid to lower revenue teams are staying in their lanes as far as market size and expected revenue/salary figures go. I mean wow, here's the current projected payrolls:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

That lines up really closely to market size with the White Sox exceedingly low position being the only significant outlier (Ugh, Harper and Machado?)

 

Looks to me like the teams are trying to establish base lines for lower salary caps and/or salary floor. I'd like a salary cap similar to every other pro league which the MLBPA would oppose, but the MLBPA absolutely should push for a salary floor, and a significant one, say $140M? If the owners push back with having a salary cap then they should push that floor figure higher somewhere within $40M of the cap the owners want, which should be no lower than it is now, with mandatory increases as revenue goes up.

My prediction is that Ownership will continue to hold back the Acuna’s and Vlad Jr’s on the front end and reduce Free Agent spending on the back and I don’t blame them because the CBA basically makes it sensible.

 

The players will be left with no choice but to try and grab control of their prime years so they ain’t reaching FA at age 31 anymore. This necessity will require a complete overhaul and neither side will budge.

 

Prepare for a work stoppage.

 

I’ll go record right now and say this to the owners. Back in 1776... If England would have simply compromised and allowed representation who knows how things would have looked today. Taking total advantage of a situation will only lead to the other side fighting back.

[The Wise One]

I'm not comfortable making accusations, but things sure are shaping up as if the owners are collectively planning ahead for CBA negotiations. None of the big teams are jumping the cap threshold any more, and it's starting to look like all of the mid to lower revenue teams are staying in their lanes as far as market size and expected revenue/salary figures go. I mean wow, here's the current projected payrolls:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

That lines up really closely to market size with the White Sox exceedingly low position being the only significant outlier (Ugh, Harper and Machado?)

 

Looks to me like the teams are trying to establish base lines for lower salary caps and/or salary floor. I'd like a salary cap similar to every other pro league which the MLBPA would oppose, but the MLBPA absolutely should push for a salary floor, and a significant one, say $140M? If the owners push back with having a salary cap then they should push that floor figure higher somewhere within $40M of the cap the owners want, which should be no lower than it is now, with mandatory increases as revenue goes up.

.

Nice in theory, the top revenue team has 3 times the revenue of the bottom team. The top 5 revenue teams almost out revenues the rest of the teams in 2017. To make revenues equitable when team owners also own shares in the local broadcast system would not be a simple task nor idea.

[Major League Ready]

 

Business owners fight tooth and nail for every additional dollar they can profit. That's a far cry from being an unsustainable business model. There is plenty of gray area between "owners could make even more money if they drew more fans", and "this decline in attendance has doomed their business model".

Personally, I say just tie payroll to revenue like the other leagues do, and be done with it. But, we'll see if that gains any traction.

 

I am not quite sure I understand. Are you advocating a salary cap?

[Mike Sixel]

Eno Sarris

@enosarris

Damn just said on radio today that Twins should’ve been in on Miley. They frustrating.

[Mike Sixel]

Money quote:

 

For teams, though, free agency is becoming a better place to shop for wins, particularly if your team is currently competitive, as it reduces the present value of any picks surrendered in the signing process. There’s an opportunity for a team to zig and spend on free agents while other teams are zagging into austerity.

 

https://theathletic.com/793317/2019/01/31/sarris-is-free-agency-becoming-a-more-cost-effective-way-to-improve-a-team/

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am not quite sure I understand. Are you advocating a salary cap?

I think he means, guarantee X% of revenue to players. If total salaries fall short of that percentage, the league sends the union a check for the difference, and they divide it among the players.

[old nurse]

 

Money quote:

 

For teams, though, free agency is becoming a better place to shop for wins, particularly if your team is currently competitive, as it reduces the present value of any picks surrendered in the signing process. There’s an opportunity for a team to zig and spend on free agents while other teams are zagging into austerity.

 

https://theathletic.com/793317/2019/01/31/sarris-is-free-agency-becoming-a-more-cost-effective-way-to-improve-a-team/

Harper, Machado, Kuechel, and Kimbrel not being signed shows how limited the shopping is. Corbin, Pollack and Grandal are the only ones signed. Only Corbin got the kind of offer expected.