Article: GM For A Deadline, Part One

[Major League Ready]

 

Most people are forgetting that even when Dozier was having a good year we couldn't move him. We are not going to get much for him.

 

We could not move him for an elite prospect. I think the probability changes when you go down a rung. I guess it depends on how you define not much. 

[Han Joelo]

I can see a team feeling wishy-washy about trading an elite prospect for two full seasons of Yin/Yang Dozier.  There would be months of griping as he works through his off cycle.  But, a playoff team going all-in by picking up a red hot Dozier?  Especially when maybe packaged with a "name" lefty reliever like Duke?  Sure, why not.  Seriously, names, ages, sentimentality aside--Dozier on the warpath at second base might be just as much WAR value in the second half as Machado at SS.  Maybe not Machado at third...

[Jham]

Well, he's assuming Sano's at his lowest... in the last calendar year his bat has turned from All-Star caliber to Mendoza line hitter who would set the new single season for strikeouts if he got the chance, his defense has been subpar, he was accused of assaulting a woman, he's failed to lose [enough] weight, he got injured again, he's playing at A+ right now...

 

Sure, it could get worse, but I'd have to imagine this is his lowest. Selling him within the next 8-10 months is not a good idea.

I think most teams still view him as an all star. To me, the demotion to Ft Meyers was an extreme move. A desperate move. A make it out break it move. Now he's in the Dominican for a family situation. It reminds me a bit of when he "reported early" for spring training to shag fly balls to be ready for right field. Ruesse discovered he wasn't in Florida. He was home. Or the winter he turned down Arizona fall ball to return home. None of this is a slight on Sano, necessarily. A move could be best for all involved. I dunno. We haven't really seem him control his weight or stay healthy. If he's heavier next season...

 

I just think it's a lot to assume at this moment that things are fine with Sano and he's still a as start who will be a perennial all star. My guess is enough teams still think that now. If his weight is 310 and not his batting average next year, that might not be the case. I guess I'm more worried than most. I specifically hope the kid is doing ok mentally.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Jham

[dbminn]

 

Can anyone name a player with a career WAR under 1.5/season that has received a qualifying offer?

 

How about under 2 WAR for the previous 3 seasons?

 

The QA for Escobar is a terrible idea that can go wrong in too many ways. Trade him and then go sign him back this winter. 

 

Here's a good one - Eric Hosmer, who was given a QO after 2017. 

2014-2016: 3.5 fWAR in 1881 PA. (1.1 WAR/600 PA)

2017:           4.1 fWAR in 671 PA    (3.7 WAR/600 PA)

 

Escobar:

2015-2017: 3.4 fWAR in 1322 PA (1.5 WAR/600)

2018:          2.1 fWAR in 376 PA   (3.4 WAR/600)

 

What's really funny, Hosmer turned down the QO and signed an 8yr/$144M contract!! 

 

Of course the Hosmer contract is outrageous... But you asked!

[olivia11]

 

Knowing the Phillies top 3 levels pretty well, I think that if the Twins get Franklyn Kilome and lefty Tyler Gilbert for Escobar, they will be set in the pen for a while.   Kilome is miscast as a starter.  Put him in the pen and you will get a dominant closer with consistent triple digit velocity.  He threw 102 as a starter at Reading last month.  Mark my words:  the next best closer out there

 

I think Kilome would be an incredible get for Escobar. Wondering, though, if the Phillies might think that's too much.

 

Based on MLB.com's rankings (just for an easy comparison), he's Philadelphia's #7 prospect and has an overall 50 scouting grade. In the Twins system, the players with a 50 scouting grade are ranked #7-9: Brent Rooker, Blayne Enlow, and Lewin Diaz. Once Trevor Larnach is added, he'd likely rank right around here too. I'm not too high on Diaz, but even if you replaced him with the next ranked prospect - Akil Baddoo - I think it's clear that that's a lot to give up for a rental non-elite player. 

 

So, I wonder if the Twins could add in Lynn, Rodney or Duke to get a deal done for Kilome plus a end-of-top-30 or unranked prospect.

 

In general, like Jeremy mentioned with Dozier and Duke, I think trading multiple players is a good strategy in order to get a prospect the front office really likes. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I want a high level prospect, way more than I want someone that will be here next year. Getting someone that is both would be great, but unlikely.

 

I never said I didn't want a high level prospect. Escobar should command one, and Dozier, if he continues to hit, should as well. I'm just noting that we have some gaps in the system right now in the high minors at C and 3B. I haven't written off next year, and I think it would be prudent to target those types of needs. 

 

Again, I'd still take starting pitching if that was all I could get. It's always needed, but given our depth at MI right now, that wouldn't be a priority. 

[spsdrock]

We need a 3rd basemen.   Sano, if he comes back, is our 1st basemen.   I dont know why everyone is fighting this.   LoMo will be gone after this year.   Mauer will be signed for two years as a backup 1st basemen/DH/bench.   I say trade Dozier to the brewers for Lucas Erceg(3B)  He can play in AAA next year and possibly be called up mid year.   That will be a good transition time for Sano at 1st with Mauer.  As a 2nd target with Erceg maybe we can get Payton Henry©.   I think Erceg/Henry will be great future pieces for the team. 

Edited July 20, 2018 by spsdrock

[Tom Froemming]

Falvinegaard has a nice ring to it ...

 

My question to you, Jeremy, is now that we've seen a few trades go down and have some feel for how guys are being valued, would you change your expectations at all on what the Twins may be able to fetch for Dozier/Escobar? Or have things panned out close to what you would have expected?

[mazeville]

 

No way do you sell low on Sano or Buxton.  

 

They don't remotely generate the return you'd want for either. They are both too young to trade at this point. 

 

I think the Aaron Hicks situation is the perfect example of why you should remain patient with these players as long as humanly possible. Hicks would look great in the Twins outfield right now. He'd look even better alongside a healthy, productive Buxton. 

[birddog]

I won't propose any names to receive from trades because I don't follow other teams' minor leagues. Do as the Indians did, trading away to another team's position of wealth like RP is for San Diego. Get as much quality as possible and/or get good quantity like the Orioles did, but don't wait for these prospects to play for us. Peddle them this winter for established players. The "waiting for prospects to help" game isn't working too well for us. We will have the money to pay proven players next year. 

[caninatl04]

Great article, Jeremy. I sincerely doubt the Twins would receive anything close to your suggestions. I would be happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt either Dozier or EE would return a player that would crack the top 20 prospects list.

[USNMCPO]

 

We need a 3rd basemen.   Sano, if he comes back, is our 1st basemen.   I dont know why everyone is fighting this.   LoMo will be gone after this year.   Mauer will be signed for two years as a backup 1st basemen/DH/bench.   I say trade Dozier to the brewers for Lucas Erceg(3B)  He can play in AAA next year and possibly be called up mid year.   That will be a good transition time for Sano at 1st with Mauer.  As a 2nd target with Erceg maybe we can get Payton Henry©.   I think Erceg/Henry will be great future pieces for the team. 

If Mauer comes back, I don't see him in a back-up role. If he is batting .275-.300 and playing GG caliber 1st base, he plays. San would DH.

[ChrisKnutson]

How bout Dozier and Esco for Freddy Peralta? I know we’d only be getting one guy, but Freddy looks legit, and will only get better.

[Twins33]

How bout Dozier and Esco for Freddy Peralta? I know we’d only be getting one guy, but Freddy looks legit, and will only get better.

I would assume it would be impossible to convince a potential playoff team to give up a pitcher who's already in their starting rotation, especially one who is young, and only get rentals in return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt either Dozier or EE would return a player that would crack the top 20 prospects list.

Jaime Garcia fetched a top 20 prospect for us. (More like top 10, depending on the source.) Nunez wasn't quite a rental, but wasn't as good as Dozier or Escobar either, and he fetched a top 20 prospect for us too (again more like top 10 by some as well).

 

We may not get to pick and choose among top 20 prospects (i.e. targeting a particularly guy or position), but I feel like we should be able to get someone in that range.

[Rosterman]

First, I do not see the Twins front office taking the gamble and giving a qualifying offer to either Dozier or Escobar. $19 million is a lot for either player. Yes, one one front you would say either player would be foolish NOT to take the offer. But looking at the bigger picture, you will be sitting around the same place in the standings in 2019 and have two guys who will be free agents at season's end and you'd be dangling them and WILL anyone trade for them, plus would you have to eat salary. That is ONE BIG IF!

 

Also, I think we can say that the Twins really have no desire to longterm sign Dozier at this point, and Brian has made it known that he will welcome free agency and now has two months to increase his value and vie for a multi-year deal. If he does it somewhere else, the Twins CAN always come bsck and revisit Dozier, if they see that Gordon or whomever won't replace him in the near scheme of things.

 

Escobar IS NOT an elite player. But at what price do you keep him, and does he see visions of glory in getting a BIG contract for multi-years in 2019? That is the question. CAN the Twins meet him halfway, give him a decent contract (south of, say, $25 million for three years). Is that too much to pay for another season as a starter, if need be, and two seasons as a versatile backup infielder, if push comes to shove. You can also justify overpaying for his clubhouse presence. BUT, and it is a BIG BUT, do you trust that he will not be deadwood at the plate or on the field for the next few seasons. If you can't reach an agreement NOW, you trade him -- and like Dozier, he is a revisit candidate in the off-season. Unfortunately, unless you are surefire that Sano IS your third baseman, you have a void.

 

What do you get in return? Well, at this point neither player is #1 on anyone's want list, so any deadline deal will happen when other possibilities come off the plate, if at all. I don't see much in the way of a quality return (which will hurt the Twins more with the loss of Escobar). BUT if you ARE losing both at season's end, getting something is better than letting them just walk at the point you don't think you can catch Cleveland.

 

And if you decide to ride this out a bit, do you let them walk in the August waiver claim time, hopefully getting a prospect (or pulling them back and keeping them), or just letting them go for salary relief and so you can play THE FUTURE. 

 

Escobar is one of your top TRADE CHIPS, although, like I said, he is not an elite piece. He might be a productive piece for the remainder of a season, moreso than any other offensive-category player (Grossman, Morrison, Dozier, Wilson). But right now, he is not a prize glove in the middle infielder and an adequate glove at third base. He hits doubles. He has some power. But he goes hot and cold. He's not a leadoff guy, he's not a cleanup slugger. He is a solid player (this season, and the last two). Unlike Dozier, he ahs been consistent. Dozier may get a hot streak and slug out 20 homers in the next two months and hit .350, which is good for Brian and his future, but not really doing anything for the Twins if they play, at best, .500 ball the rest of the way.

 

You just never know, but now is the time to judge your minor league system, make decisions on guys you have to remove from the 40-man to add more in the off-season. THAT IS MORE IMPORTANT in the future scheme of things. If you egt minor league depth, that second or third prospect in line from an organization, that 41st player, you might be happy.

 

The Twins did a good job signing (and trading) for pieces to make them a stronger team in 2018. Unfortunately, none of them really worked out (shades of Rodney who gives us suspense). The joy is you can still go out and buy a rotation arm, three bullpen arms, a backup catcher and a 1B/DH in the off-season and probably egt what you with the spring training promises this year. But IS IT MORE IMPORTANT to advance and see what you will have for 2019 (or even 2020) now than do this all over again.

 

Dozier you didn't feel like signing in the off-season. There wasn't much of a trade market for him the past couple of seasons. Escobar is an elite bench guy, but NOT an elite regular...although he does have flashes and shines...but I don't see any team going after him to be their 2-3 year future at any position. He will get a contract (think Nunez) and be able to stay in the majors at least 4-5 years in some capacity. 

 

But these two players? Well, the Twins will have people kicking the tires and looking them over carefully as they judge other sellable items out there in the realm of baseball, or do they just go with the unproven parts they have in their own system.

[slash129]

If a deal for Dozier or Escobar - with or without Duke inlcuded - can return some of these top 10 players like Kilome, Burnes or Mata, I think the Twins would have to seriously consider the move. I would still wait until very close to the deadline to pull the trigger to see if this momentum carries through the roadtrip.

 

I still don't understand the argument of moving either of them for just lottery tickets and the "benefit" of opening up a spot for Gordon.  Just because he was a #1 pick, doesn't mean he's earned a chance at the MLB level yet?  He's now been floundering at AAA longer than he was excelling at AA this season.   That tells me that he's hit a wall with his promotion, not that he's ready to take yet another step.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If a deal for Dozier or Escobar - with or without Duke inlcuded - can return some of these top 10 players like Kilome, Burnes or Mata, I think the Twins would have to seriously consider the move. I would still wait until very close to the deadline to pull the trigger to see if this momentum carries through the roadtrip.

 

I still don't understand the argument of moving either of them for just lottery tickets and the "benefit" of opening up a spot for Gordon.  Just because he was a #1 pick, doesn't mean he's earned a chance at the MLB level yet?  He's now been floundering at AAA longer than he was excelling at AA this season.   That tells me that he's hit a wall with his promotion, not that he's ready to take yet another step.

 

What if it isn't to open up space for Gordon, but to get lucky and get a good player? I mean, what is the point in keeping them, assuming they aren't catching CLE.

[ChrisKnutson]

I would assume it would be impossible to convince a potential playoff team to give up a pitcher who's already in their starting rotation, especially one who is young, and only get rentals in return.

I guess you never know, but Milwaukee might be desperate/willing enough to deal Peralta. If not, I guess we’d all know why they lost out on the Machado sweepstakes (also a rental).

 

MN’s got nothing to lose, and everything to gain, when it comes to dealing these rentals. The fact that I can’t say the same about the Brew Crew, a team that went “all in” to start the year (and still might not make the playoffs), means we “should” have leverage in making a deal with them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First, I do not see the Twins front office taking the gamble and giving a qualifying offer to either Dozier or Escobar. $19 million is a lot for either player.

For Dozier, it really depends on how he finishes. A strong finish at the plate will strongly suggest he's still the same plus player he's been for 5 years now, and worth a QO for a hopeful contender without an immediate replacement ready.

 

Escobar doesn't have that history. Even if he somehow duplicates his first half success, there's probably not enough confidence in his 2019 projection to justify that deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I still don't understand the argument of moving either of them for just lottery tickets and the "benefit" of opening up a spot for Gordon.

How about opening up a spot for Sano to return? I guess they could DH him or plug him in at 1B, but I presume they'd want to see how he handles 3B in MLB with better conditioning.

[slash129]

 

What if it isn't to open up space for Gordon, but to get lucky and get a good player? I mean, what is the point in keeping them, assuming they aren't catching CLE.

 

This probably won't be popular, and I understand.  I'd rather watch better baseball for a couple of months than backfill the bottom end of the org or get the rights to a player whose equivalent can be had on a minor league deal next ST (Alex Presley).

 

Dozier and Escobar are still playing for contracts, so we should get to see some good baseball.

[slash129]

 

How about opening up a spot for Sano to return? I guess they could DH him or plug him in at 1B, but I presume they'd want to see how he handles 3B in MLB with better conditioning.

 

You make an interesting point, but my process would be at the expense of Morrison and giving Escobar, Polanco and Dozier some DH PAs to allow for the new look Sano to play 3B.

[Major League Ready]

 

Here's a good one - Eric Hosmer, who was given a QO after 2017. 

2014-2016: 3.5 fWAR in 1881 PA. (1.1 WAR/600 PA)

2017:           4.1 fWAR in 671 PA    (3.7 WAR/600 PA)

 

Escobar:

2015-2017: 3.4 fWAR in 1322 PA (1.5 WAR/600)

2018:          2.1 fWAR in 376 PA   (3.4 WAR/600)

 

 

 

What's really funny, Hosmer turned down the QO and signed an 8yr/$144M contract!! 

 

Of course the Hosmer contract is outrageous... But you asked!

 

I have to admit ... I did not think there were ANY reasonable examples. However, if you manipulate the numbers, you can make a case for Hosmer. However, you chose a 3 year period which included 2 years when he was at his worst and had near zero WAR. You elected to position the numbers in a manner not reflective of recent history. For example, he had 7.8 fWAR the 3 years immediately proceeding his FA year and that included a very bad year of .2 FWAR. You could have also used the last 5 years where he averaged 2.14 WAR.

 

He was also rated the 3rd best FA on the market my MLB Trade Rumors so manipulating of war aside, comparing Hosmer  and Escobar makes little sense and the fact he received a $144M contract would suggest the league does not see them as anywhere near comparable.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Major League Ready]

 

We need a 3rd basemen.   Sano, if he comes back, is our 1st basemen.   I dont know why everyone is fighting this.   LoMo will be gone after this year.   Mauer will be signed for two years as a backup 1st basemen/DH/bench.   I say trade Dozier to the brewers for Lucas Erceg(3B)  He can play in AAA next year and possibly be called up mid year.   That will be a good transition time for Sano at 1st with Mauer.  As a 2nd target with Erceg maybe we can get Payton Henry©.   I think Erceg/Henry will be great future pieces for the team. 

 

Because he is much more valuable at 3B if he can play even close to average defensive with that cannon for arm. 1B is far easier to fill and we have waaaay more prospects that profile for 1B. Plus, if the reports are accurate, he is taking getting into shape seriously. He is a tremendous athlete that happens to be out of shape. How good could he be if he sheds 40 lbs. His value at 3B is worthy of further evaluation if he does in fact get in shape.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This probably won't be popular, and I understand.  I'd rather watch better baseball for a couple of months than backfill the bottom end of the org or get the rights to a player whose equivalent can be had on a minor league deal next ST (Alex Presley).

 

Dozier and Escobar are still playing for contracts, so we should get to see some good baseball.

 

I sympathize with this stance, but have a different priority. Neither of us is wrong, btw....just have different interests.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would assume it would be impossible to convince a potential playoff team to give up a pitcher who's already in their starting rotation, especially one who is young, and only get rentals in return.

 

yeah, the only way that works is if said young pitcher has been pitching poorly and the team is getting a good SP now. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can anyone name a player with a career WAR under 1.5/season that has received a qualifying offer?

 

How about under 2 WAR for the previous 3 seasons?

Mark Trumbo! Of course, that was a bad decision and even worse contract... I think Escobar would at least be more useful in his utility role than Trumbo ever was.

 

On the pitching side, Jeremy Hellickson.

 

QO rules have changed since then, though, so the penalties aren't as great for signing a QO player, nor is the compensation as great for losing most players.

[jorgenswest]

I look at the qualifying offer of ~18 million a little differently.

 

When teams give a veteran free agent pitcher 4 years and 60 million they know they are likely to get 2 good years. That is what the Twins got from Santana which is a lot better than the return from Hughes and Nolasco. The Twins will likely get one good year from Castro for the three years.

 

A one year deal for ~18 million to a player in their 30s can work out better than a 3/30 deal.

 

As long as Dozier and Escobar finish strong, I would make the qualifying offer. I don’t go into the deadline feeling I must trade them. Instead I expect a return of at least a comp pick before I deal them.

[Mike Sixel]

Escobar is not turning down the QO. He can take that, and then get a "meh" contract in a year, and make way more money combined. In the mean time, the Twins get nothing other than one more year of a guy that should be a utility player on a good team.....I can't see how that's a good investment of limited budgetary dollars. But, I guess I could be wrong, and he's a legit MLB starter on a good team.