Having a friendly debate with a few co-workers. Gibson for Kelly straight up. Who says no? They seem to think the Cards don't take the call. I feel Twins say no at this point. Thoughts?

Twins say no.

Sounds good to me. I think it would go through. Maybe see if the Twins can get Hicks after the mess he's in with Norris right now... (/s) 

I think it's fairly close, isn't it? Sure, Kelly's no sure thing but he has a lot of control left and is a former top prospect. He hasn't played well in the majors but he's hitting well in AAA. Of course, it's in the PCL so ...

 

And Gibson is 30 and replaceable ...

 

I guess this would depend on how the team's scouts view Kelly.

Plenty of trade proposals where both teams would say no. This might be one.

 

Plenty of trade proposals where both teams would say no. This might be one.

Yeah, not sure the Cardinals need another SP.  And I'm not sure Kelly will hit enough at the MLB level.  

But I do see the Cardinals being willing to trade him, and he's supposedly very good defensively.  He might be worth a shot for the Twins if they can figure out a trade.  I'm not sure what that would be.  

Twins say no. Gibson has been a top-20 pitcher for the past year and has another year under contract. Kelly hasn't proven he can hit outside of the PCL. It's midseason and the Cardinals are 4 games out of a WC spot, which means they need Gibson right now more than the Twins need Kelly. 

 

 

It's a very fair question.  I think value-wise, it's fair for both teams.  But, I think the big thing here is that the Cardinals have some real good (and young) talent in the rotation.  I personally wouldn't bring in Gibson to replace Flaherty or Gant, at the cost of a top catching prospect.  And they have Wacha waiting on the DL too.  One could argue they have 6 starters equal to or better than Gibson.

Edited July 13, 20188 yr by Respy

Is Kelly better than Knizner?

Gibson is currently 24th overall in FWAR for pitchers........he has another year of control. he's been this good for a full season now, since he made visible, measurable, changes.....

 

I think people are vastly underestimating his value right now.

I'd counter offer them Odorizzi.  That might be a fair trade since both have major questions

Gibson is currently 24th overall in FWAR for pitchers........he has another year of control. he's been this good for a full season now, since he made visible, measurable, changes.....

 

I think people are vastly underestimating his value right now.

I think they vastly underestimated this spring also when his peripherals and projections placed him with or above many of the free agent pitchers discussed including the one they signed.

 

Back to topic though I think good starting pitching is hard to replace. I would rather have a defense only catcher and a good starter.

Edited July 13, 20188 yr by jorgenswest

 

Gibson is currently 24th overall in FWAR for pitchers........he has another year of control. he's been this good for a full season now, since he made visible, measurable, changes.....

 

I think people are vastly underestimating his value right now.

I agree, which is why I wouldn't do it. But thought it was an interesting question.

FG has Kelly 71st on their updated prospect list....so, he's actually considered quite a high prospect.

 

He's been very good in AAA, but in two short stints in the majors has made Wilson look like Hank Aaron....

 

I'd want a flyer or something more than Kelly back at this point.

I'm with Thrylos - offer Odorizzi for him.  If you move Gibson, you do it for something much more enticing.

 

And I'm a fan of targeting Kelly, just not with this trade.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/molinas-injury-more-painful-for-him-than-cardinals/

 

 

Gibson is currently 24th overall in FWAR for pitchers........he has another year of control. he's been this good for a full season now, since he made visible, measurable, changes.....

 

I think people are vastly underestimating his value right now.

I think you are right.  Our patience with the Gibber finally pays off and people want to move him?  

I am perfectly happy seeing Gibby as a  #2 or #3 starter next year.  

 

 

I would do this deal.

 

Gibson is basically turning himself into a rotation staple, but Kelly is still a highly rated prospect. Cardinals might say no.

Is Gibson more valuable to the team than Kelly in 2019?

 

I think so. That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t do the trade because they have just 1 year of Gibson control. Please don’t think that they can do this trade and easily replace Gibson in free agency. We have seen the success of this year’s free agent starters.

 

I hesitate because I really don’t want to weaken 2019 for the future.

 

Is Gibson more valuable to the team than Kelly in 2019?

I think so. That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t do the trade because they have just 1 year of Gibson control. Please don’t think that they can do this trade and easily replace Gibson in free agency. We have seen the success of this year’s free agent starters.

I hesitate because I really don’t want to weaken 2019 for the future.

 

that's fair, but 2019 doesn't look like it will be any kind of awesome year, without serious additions to the roster.....one year of Gibson is probably less valuable than 4-5 of a starting catcher, if he becomes that.

I was never sure where the Kelly hype came from. He must be elite defensively because his bat barely plays as far as PCL standards go.

 

But if that's what we're looking for I'm guessing Drew Butera or Rene Rivera can be had pretty cheap next year.

Odorizzi? I get the feeling if the offer was the other way around Twins fans would feel insulted,  

 

Odorizzi? I get the feeling if the offer was the other way around Twins fans would feel insulted,  

 

very.....

 

I was never sure where the Kelly hype came from. He must be elite defensively because his bat barely plays as far as PCL standards go.

 

But if that's what we're looking for I'm guessing Drew Butera or Rene Rivera can be had pretty cheap next year.

 

From what I recall, he's definitely an elite defender, and it was developed while in the minors because he wasn't a catcher when drafted.

 

Bat plays in the PCL okay, not much in majors yet but he's also only turning 24 tomorrow. 

 

Now that I've thought a lot more about it though, I think others are right and I'm probably undervaluing Gibson. If they were into trading him they could shoot higher for sure.

It's the kind of trade the Twins should be considering, though.  This particular one doesn't seem to be likely to make you stronger in 2019...but after that?  Almost no matter what roster decision is being considered for 2019, it seems it has to start with the question, what will Buxton and Sano be?...or at least some base-line assumption regarding what they will be.

Gibson can't get the kind of catcher that would make me interested and I'm not interested in trading Gibson for a catcher that's not interesting.

 

Just go overpay for Grandal, Ramos or someone next year.

I don't understand why people are so excited to get rid of Gibson.  In his 19 starts I can really only thing of 3 where he didn't pitch well.

 

I think he made changes necessary to be a very good MLB pitcher.  I personally would like to keep those type of pitchers.  The Twins have enough guys who have hit well in the minors but struggle in the Majors.  

 

Gibson, if traded at this point should be able to bring in a near can't miss prospect in my opinion.  Pitchers with K/9 of near 9 and FIPS in the 3's don't exactly grow on trees.  The Twins would have killed for this type of pitcher in 2011-2015 years.  

 

I'd make him part of the future.  He has a year of control left and is youngish. He will only be 31 next season.  If the Twins think this is sustainable I'd buy out the last year of control and offer him deal through his age 34 season. 

 

I don't understand why people are so excited to get rid of Gibson.  In his 19 starts I can really only thing of 3 where he didn't pitch well.

 

I think he made changes necessary to be a very good MLB pitcher.  I personally would like to keep those type of pitchers.  The Twins have enough guys who have hit well in the minors but struggle in the Majors.  

 

Gibson, if traded at this point should be able to bring in a near can't miss prospect in my opinion.  Pitchers with K/9 of near 9 and FIPS in the 3's don't exactly grow on trees.  The Twins would have killed for this type of pitcher in 2011-2015 years.  

 

I'd make him part of the future.  He has a year of control left and is youngish. He will only be 31 next season.  If the Twins think this is sustainable I'd buy out the last year of control and offer him deal through his age 34 season. 

 

Who is "excited" to trade Gibson?

 

How do people expect this team to get better, if they won't trade prospects for MLB players, and they won't trade veterans for minor league players, and they won't sign the more expensive FAs?

Who is "excited" to trade Gibson?

 

How do people expect this team to get better, if they won't trade prospects for MLB players, and they won't trade veterans for minor league players, and they won't sign the more expensive FAs?

Put more effort into making the players they have better?

 

Teams do that.

 

Teams that win do that a lot.

Put more effort into making the players they have better?

 

Teams do that.

 

Teams that win do that a lot.

I'm sure they are. Teams that win have more talented players too. Are you suggesting if they just coach better, and don't add elite talent, this team can compete with the big three? I find that not likely, but maybe you are right. I'd rather bet on more talent bring the key than better coaching fixing anything in the next two years.