Article: Week in Review: Home Sweet Home

[Nick Nelson]

A home series against the worst team in baseball was all the Minnesota Twins needed to get back on track and restore some confidence following a devastating road trip.

 

Keep reading for the full rundown on a week that started hideously in Milwaukee and ended beautifully in Minneapolis.

Weekly Snapshot:

Mon, 7/2 through Sun, 7/8

***

Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 39-48)

Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: -21)

Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.5 GB)

When previewing the upcoming slate in last week's edition of this column, I noted that the "four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad."

 

True to form, Baltimore came to town and played terribly, dropping all four games to push its MLB-leading loss total to 65. After being swept out of Target Field, the O's find themselves on pace for a 44-118 finish. A good reminder that it could be worse.

 

But things still aren't anywhere near good for the Twins, whose first sweep of the year came on the heels of a gut-wrenching 1-8 road trip that torpedoed their remaining hopes of vaulting into contention. As we head into a new week, the Twins find themselves nine games below .500 and 9 1/2 out in the division despite their modest four-game winning streak.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

When a season goes south as this one has, one silver lining is the opportunity to extensively evaluate some potentially useful pieces going forward. One of the most interesting names in this category at present is Jake Cave, who's been enjoying regular playing time with Byron Buxton demoted and Ryan LaMarre designated for assignment.

 

Cave has been taking advantage in a big way.

 

The numbers have been solid – he went 6-for-21 with a pair of doubles this week and has a .785 OPS overall through 20 big-league games – but more noticeable is the energy and hustle. He runs hard on the bases, risked injury with a gutsy headfirst slide into home on Saturday, and has already made several highlight-reel plays in the outfield, including a home run robbery Friday night that earned him some noteworthy praise:

 

 

When acquired, Cave was described (even by Derek Falvey) as a somewhat fringy center fielder better suited for the corners, but he looked awfully capable making six straight starts in the middle this past week.

 

We'll see where things go from here, but right now Cave is building his case to be part of the 2019 picture. One theoretical outfield mix would have the Twins carrying four lefty-swinging outfielders (Cave, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, LaMonte Wade) on the active roster next year. We might even see that combination in place this September.

 

Speaking of Kepler, he also put forth a strong effort over the past seven days, going 8-for-25 with a pair of home runs while starting all seven games. During Minnesota's nightmarish road trip Kepler had produced zero extra-base hits and one RBI in 34 plate appearances, so it was good to see him hit some balls hard and drive in four during the Baltimore series.

 

Returning to the fold after his 80-game PED suspension to open the season, Jorge Polanco had an assuring first week of action. Starting every game at shortstop, the 25-year-old went 7-for-26 with a pair of doubles and two walks. He's looked sharp on defense, and ended Saturday's game with an excellent backhand play in the hole.

 

On the pitching side there were some impressive performances as well. Aaron Slegers made his first start of the season for the Twins on Thursday and he was money, tossing six very efficient innings with one run, one walk and three hits allowed to pick up his first MLB win.

 

Because his stuff and strikeouts have never matched up with his intimidating frame, the 6-foot-10 righty has never been viewed as a high-end prospect, but the consistent results are hard to ignore. In his tidy victory over Baltimore, Slegers showed why a manager likes to have him around – he worked quickly, pounded the strike zone, and kept his fielders busy while limiting hard contact.

 

Adalberto Mejia, sent back to the minors after getting one chance to start in unbearable heat, certainly deserves another look. So does Fernando Romero, who has put up a 1.45 ERA in three starts at Rochester since an arguably unearned demotion. But Slegers, much like Cave, is one of those borderline players the Twins should be using this second half to assess. It's gonna be tough to find room for holding all these auditions in the rotation unless Minnesota can open up some vacancies, which is why the trade deadline will be key.

 

One candidate to be dealt further bolstered his stock over the weekend. Kyle Gibson shook off a rocky first frame to get through seven innings of three-run ball with nine strikeouts. He set a new career-high by inducing 20 swinging strikes, second-most for a Twins starter all season (Lance Lynn tallied 21 at Detroit in mid-June).

 

Granted, the sterling effort came against a truly lousy Orioles squad, but it was another reminder of Gibby's vastly improved arsenal. There were reportedly scouts on hand to watch the right-hander's previous outing, and if any were in the house at Target Field on Saturday they undoubtedly came away impressed.

 

My stance is that the Twins shouldn't move Gibson unless they're blown away by an offer. But that's not an implausible scenario.

 

Another strong week worth mentioning: Trevor Hildenberger bounced back from his weird implosion at Wrigley Field with three scoreless appearances, striking out five while allowing one hit and two walks. That's more like it.

 

And finally, in the Baby Steps Department: At Triple A, Buxton collected seven hits, including a two doubles and a homer, while scoring seven times and keeping his K-rate below 25%. At Single A, Miguel Sano went 7-for-21 and is sporting a .340 average.

 

LOWLIGHTS

 

Before his monster sixth inning on Sunday, in which he hit both a leadoff double and a subsequent three-run homer, Brian Dozier was 4-for-24 (.167) with nine strikeouts and zero walks on the week. Like much of the second baseman's scant production this year, his big blast – a signature upper-decker yanked to straightaway left – didn't exactly come at a pivotal time, as it extended the team's lopsided lead from seven runs to 10.

 

This trend has led Dozier to a -1.67 Win Probability Added, worst on the team by far, and magnifies the disappointing nature of his performance this season. According to Baseball Reference, the 31-year-old is hitting .123/.206/.193 in "Close and Late" situations, compounding a conspicuous career-long weakness (Dozier's lifetime OPS in such spots is nearly 200 points lower than his overall mark).

 

None of this will do much to prop up his value in the eyes of shopping contenders as the deadline approaches.

 

The only longer-tenured Twin, Joe Mauer, also had a quiet week, picking up five hits in 24 at-bats (.208) with one RBI and one walk. Mauer's keen eye has disappeared since his return from the disabled list. He's coaxed only two free passes in 79 plate appearances (2.5%) after drawing 28 in 167 PA (16.8%) before stirring up concussion symptoms in May. As a result, his OBP has gone from .404 before the injury to .253 since.

 

When answering a fan's question about whether Mauer might return on a one-year deal in 2019, Star Tribune beat reporter La Velle E. Neal III responded, "He wants to play next year, so yes." If it's a true reflection of the organization's mindset, it's annoying. With all due respect, Mauer's desires and preferences should not be dictating the team's plans.

 

He is a leadoff man who, over the past month, hasn't been able to get on base. A first baseman who can't hit for power (subtracting those weird two games at Wrigley Field at the end of June, Mauer has slugged .266 in 18 games since coming off the DL). A lineup staple and ostensible team leader with a 0.3 WAR through half the season.

 

Maybe this is just a short-term slump, and Mauer will soon get back to the level he was at before. But given his history of prolonged droughts following concussion issues, it's not easy to feel confident in that.

 

TRENDING STORYLINE

 

Bobby Wilson badly needed a game like the one he had on Saturday. The "backup" catcher was sporting an unsightly .114/.191/.203 slash line before breaking out with two hits and three RBIs in the victory. Obviously his overall numbers still aren't pretty, and it's fairly clear Wilson doesn't belong in the majors, much less starting on a semi-regular basis.

 

I put the word "backup" in quotes above because Wilson really hasn't functioned as one – more of a straight-up timeshare partner. Since the start of June, Mitch Garver has made 18 starts behind the plate to Wilson's 17, and the two have been pretty close in total plate appearances (72 for Garver versus 56 for Wilson, despite the former out-hitting the latter by 500+ points of OPS during that span).

 

In recent weeks, the catching workload has actually swung very much in Wilson's favor, as he's made 10 starts behind the plate to Garver's seven over the past 17 contests. That Paul Molitor has shifted the balance this way, despite a massive offensive chasm, speaks to a pretty evident lack of faith in Garver's receiving skills.

 

While that's understandable enough given his relative lack of MLB experience, the Twins can't exactly afford to exhibit endless patience with Garver, who turns 28 in January. If he's this far away now from where he needs to be, is he going to get there? How's it gonna happen when he's not getting regular reps? And even if they are unenthused with his defense, why aren't the Twins finding Garver more starts at DH or first? Why was he batting ninth on Friday despite a .333/.393/.451 line over his previous 20 games, and eighth on Sunday after chipping in two hits and a walk on Friday?

 

The handling of Garver has been odd, and the present state of the catcher position is unacceptable. One would think something's gotta give.

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

 

It's been a little bit of a weird season for Lewis Thorpe. The lefty, who returned successfully to Single-A last season after losing two full years to injury and illness, has now taken the step up to Double A where he has dominated... kinda.

 

The core numbers don't reflect it. Through 82 2/3 innings Thorpe has a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, which are hardly eye-popping numbers for a 22-year-old in the Southern League. But he has also posted a stellar 104-to-24 K/BB ratio.

 

His stuff has by all accounts been excellent, and at times that has clearly manifested, like on June 21st when he struck out 12 over seven shutout innings while allowing one hit and one walk. But then he has weird games, like his dud in early June where he coughed up nine runs on nine hits over 3 1/3 innings, even though he induced 16 whiffs on 85 pitches. There was another start in April where he yielded 10 hits over 4 2/3 despite striking out seven, walking none, and again drawing 16 swings and misses.

 

Thorpe has struck out hitters in droves while showing good control, but he's been haunted by a .370 BABIP and elevated pitch counts. Luckily, the folks assembling the Futures Game rosters looked past this and handed the Melbourne native a spot on the World team. He'll likely take the mound at some point next Sunday in DC during the prospect showcase.

 

Maybe he'll even get a chance to face Alex Kirilloff, who will represent the Twins on the U.S. team.

 

The most impressive week on the farm belonged to Brent Rooker, who collected multiple hits in five of seven games and doubled in the winning run for Chattanooga on Saturday. Sporting a 1.047 OPS since the start of June, the 2017 draftee is a compelling candidate to spend time in Rochester or even Minnesota later this season.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

If they want to keep this winning streak going, the Twins could hardly ask for a better slate in the final week before the All-Star break. The Royals, closely trailing Baltimore for most losses in the majors at 64, arrive on Monday for a three-game series. Then it's a four-game set versus the mediocre Rays.

 

If the Twins were able to go, say, 6-1 in the coming week while cutting into Cleveland's sizable division lead, one wonders if the front office's deadline calculus would change at all.

 

MONDAY, 7/9: ROYAL @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Jose Berrios

TUESDAY, 7/10: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Ian Kennedy v. RHP Aaron Slegers

WEDNESDAY, 7/11: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Hammel v. RHP Lance Lynn

THURSDAY, 7/12: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Blake Snell v. RHP Kyle Gibson

FRIDAY, 7/13: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Nathan Eovaldi v. RHP Jake Odorizzi

SATURDAY, 7/14: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Jose Berrios

SUNDAY, 7/15: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Andriese v. RHP Aaron Slegers

 

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 81 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Oh, That Rodney Experience
• Game 82 | MIL 2, MIN 0: Strikeouts Galore
• Game 83 | MIL 3, MIN 2: Pushing Against a Stone
• Game 84 | MIN 5, BAL 2: Slegers, Cave Lift Twins Out of Slump
• Game 85 | MIN 6, BAL 2: Jake Cave Is the Hero We Deserve
• Game 86 | MIN 5, BAL 4: More Baltimore, Please
• Game 87 | MIN 10, BAL 1: Twins Pick Up First Sweep of 2018

 

Click here to view the article

[Kelly Vance]

Not a bad analysis, but I think when you say "With all due respect" before disrespecting a guy, you are using the first phrase improperly.

 

Joe Mauer is a living legend. He signed here for much less than he would have collected in New York or LA. That showed loyalty. He has played through injuries and concussions and has shown resilience, guts and desire. He is not what he once was, but he is still Joe Mauer. He will quit when he says. To his critics, this is an annoyance. The rest of us are grateful for every day we get to watch him play. 

 

[Nick Nelson]

I respect all of those things. That doesn't mean the franchise should be at the mercy of his whims. 

 

I'm not one of Mauer's "critics." It's plain to see he's not a good player right now. Guts and desire are admirable but don't win ballgames – hits and runs do.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I respect all of those things. That doesn't mean the franchise should be at the mercy of his whims. 

 

I'm not one of Mauer's "critics." It's plain to see he's not a good player right now. Guts and desire are admirable but don't win ballgames – hits and runs do.

Nobody I'd rather have up with runs on second and third, down 1 run.

 

 

[Number3]

"Nobody I'd rather have up with runs on second and third, down 1 run."

 

Who are you, the opposing pitcher?

 

7 more games at Target pre all star. It is interesting that last year the Twins actually did better on the road (44-37) than home (41-40), so that clearly is the difference from this year. Even 4-3 over those 7 would be a nice 8-3 home stand. Then come back post all star and improve that road record. Still have a chance for a decent season and for keeping the Central visible on the radar screen. Likely? Of course not. Possible? Why not? Just make Sept. ball interesting and see what happens.

 

BTW, we were in Seattle last week and I ran in to several Twins fans wearing Twins garb.

[terrydactyls]

Nobody I'd rather have up with runs on second and third, down 1 run.

 

How about Jose Altuve?

[mikelink45]

Mauer is an interesting shadow on this franchise.  First we questioned the wisdom of Mauer as the first pick - and later it became a genius choice.  Then he was a HOF catcher who was plagued by concussions and mysterious maladies and the Twins used his contract to justify their own lack of action, which of course hurt Mauer's reputation.  Then he came back to be a first baseman, where his batting skills, now diminished, became more of a liability in the mind of others who wanted a more traditional first base masher - like Sano.  Finally we have an aging Mauer who has some decent replacement level performances and garners more sympathy now that he did during some of his more challenging transitions.

 

At the moment we have no one to take his place, but when we do - Rooker, Sano...it will be time to put sympathy, admiration, history behind us and move on.  It is always sad to see vets diminish, but remember even Barry Bonds could not hold on as long as he would have liked. 

 

In some ways Mauer is still a true reflection of this team.  We remember the good times and think maybe another series will turn him/us around.  There are flashes of old skills like Dozier's less than significant HR with a seven run lead, and more than anything we want him/us to succeed. 

 

Cave has been a good story, Kepler has had way too few good series and it is now getting harder to envision the OF of the future. 

 

Which leads me to wonder why we only got Thorpe and Kiriloff on the world and US teams?   The Twins prospect list had me expecting more.

And final wandering thought - at a time where we have so many racial and national biases - is it still good to have Americans vs the World in the all star format?

[Squirrel]

Mauer is an interesting shadow on this franchise. First we questioned the wisdom of Mauer as the first pick - and later it became a genius choice. Then he was a HOF catcher who was plagued by concussions and mysterious maladies and the Twins used his contract to justify their own lack of action, which of course hurt Mauer's reputation. Then he came back to be a first baseman, where his batting skills, now diminished, became more of a liability in the mind of others who wanted a more traditional first base masher - like Sano. Finally we have an aging Mauer who has some decent replacement level performances and garners more sympathy now that he did during some of his more challenging transitions.

 

At the moment we have no one to take his place, but when we do - Rooker, Sano...it will be time to put sympathy, admiration, history behind us and move on. It is always sad to see vets diminish, but remember even Barry Bonds could not hold on as long as he would have liked.

 

In some ways Mauer is still a true reflection of this team. We remember the good times and think maybe another series will turn him/us around. There are flashes of old skills like Dozier's less than significant HR with a seven run lead, and more than anything we want him/us to succeed.

 

Cave has been a good story, Kepler has had way too few good series and it is now getting harder to envision the OF of the future.

 

Which leads me to wonder why we only got Thorpe and Kiriloff on the world and US teams? The Twins prospect list had me expecting more.

 

And final wandering thought - at a time where we have so many racial and national biases - is it still good to have Americans vs the World in the all star format?

To answer the question about the Futures game ... no MLB team is allowed more than two representatives. Some teams only have one prospect going. If you do the math, 25 on each team is 50 players. With 30 MLB teams and each team needs at least one representative, the rule is no team can have more than 2.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Nobody I'd rather have up with runs on second and third, down 1 run.

 

...you want the guy who's 8 RBI outburst puts him on pace for 40 RBI?

 

Granted, he's not going to kill you and is a fair bet to load the bases, but I can think of some more productive bats for a critical run-scoring situation.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Mauer is an interesting shadow on this franchise.  First we questioned the wisdom of Mauer as the first pick - and later it became a genius choice.  Then he was a HOF catcher who was plagued by concussions and mysterious maladies and the Twins used his contract to justify their own lack of action, which of course hurt Mauer's reputation.  Then he came back to be a first baseman, where his batting skills, now diminished, became more of a liability in the mind of others who wanted a more traditional first base masher - like Sano.  Finally we have an aging Mauer who has some decent replacement level performances and garners more sympathy now that he did during some of his more challenging transitions.

 

At the moment we have no one to take his place, but when we do - Rooker, Sano...it will be time to put sympathy, admiration, history behind us and move on.  It is always sad to see vets diminish, but remember even Barry Bonds could not hold on as long as he would have liked. 

 

In some ways Mauer is still a true reflection of this team.  We remember the good times and think maybe another series will turn him/us around.  There are flashes of old skills like Dozier's less than significant HR with a seven run lead, and more than anything we want him/us to succeed. 

 

Cave has been a good story, Kepler has had way too few good series and it is now getting harder to envision the OF of the future. 

 

Which leads me to wonder why we only got Thorpe and Kiriloff on the world and US teams?   The Twins prospect list had me expecting more.

And final wandering thought - at a time where we have so many racial and national biases - is it still good to have Americans vs the World in the all star format?

 

I think it depends what else the Twins have going. As is, Sano can play 3B and Rooker can play OF so there's no one who needs to play 1B, especially with the DH spot open. Joe being left-handed helps too since those guys both hit righty.

 

I think a 1-year deal makes sense. 2 years gets tougher because Rooker should be up by then and the Twins infield gets more crowded with guys like Javier, Gordon, and maybe Lewis coming up. Take it one-year at a time, he's not playing anywhere else.

[Blackjack]

I wish Joe would retire while he's still a good ball player and not hang on until he's released or pushed out the door some other way.  Harmon Killebrew comes to mind, I think he played briefly for Kansas City at the end of his career.

[Squirrel]

 

Having Mauer on the team next year makes sense mostly because there isn't anyone else to play 1B or the DH spot other than Sano. The two of them make a decent IB/DH combo, especially since Mauer will only be playing 125 games a year or so so we can sprinkle in another candidate, if we can find one. Morrison isn't it, Vargas had his chance(s) and didn't really produce consistently (and is hitting .236/.312/.398 in AAA in his age 28 season), and Rooker is probably a couple of years away. Absent a free agency find, there's some benefit and really isn't much of a loss from Mauer playing another year. 

If they move Rooker up to AAA ball yet this year, depending on how he does, he could fill that spot. It's a long shot and likely not to happen, but ... I think it's enough of a possibility that you can't not look at it.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Having Mauer on the team next year makes sense mostly because there isn't anyone else to play 1B or the DH spot other than Sano. The two of them make a decent IB/DH combo, especially since Mauer will only be playing 125 games a year or so so we can sprinkle in another candidate, if we can find one. Morrison isn't it, Vargas had his chance(s) and didn't really produce consistently (and is hitting .236/.312/.398 in AAA in his age 28 season), and Rooker is probably a couple of years away. Absent a free agency find, there's some benefit and really isn't much of a loss from Mauer playing another year. 

 

1B/DH  is supposedly one of the easiest positions to fill. Assuming Sano gets back on track I'd like him to take one of those spots and let Escobar take over 3B (assuming Dozier/Polanco/Gordon/other have middle infield covered). That means DH is wide open for streaming players through or going out and getting a free agent, or trying out Rooker. For a team that has the potential to compete, that kind of opportunity seems too valuable to give up for a farewell tour. It might work if Mauer is OK with his playing time being limited and de-prioritized, but I don't know that he'd accept that.

[Vanimal46]

It's not like Mauer is playing every day right now. There's room next year to have him play 100 games as a fill in starter at 1B/DH.

 

I think we're putting the cart before the horse with Rooker. Let him earn his way into the lineup instead of handing it to him.

[Squirrel]

 

It's not like Mauer is playing every day right now. There's room next year to have him play 100 games as a fill in starter at 1B/DH.

I think we're putting the cart before the horse with Rooker. Let him earn his way into the lineup instead of handing it to him.

I don't think anyone is suggesting handing Rooker the job, at least I wasn't. But I think it's enough of a possibility you simply can't not have him be a part of the discussion. I'd like to see Rooker moved up to AAA this year to see how he does and go from there. While it's not likely he'd make the team next year, and no one is slotting him in as a given, I don't think it can be ruled out completely and not part of the discussion as a possibility. At the very least I'd think he could be a call up next year at some point. But then, he's not on the 40-man and he likely won't be put on it this fall, so, that could be the stronger issue as to when we might see him all the way up.

[Platoon]

If you take this years team and figure out who you want up in a late situation, I would take EE, Rosario, then Mauer in that order. Assuming I am looking for a professional AB. And no jokes about Rosario and "professional AB" in the same sentence please. Nick noted the handling of Garver has been odd. There's a lot of odd going on that team. Since I would bet the farm that MOY is unmoveable, then somehow they have to get The FO and MOY on the same page. Meaning, if the FO turns that page to rebuild, they have to get MOY to quit playing for wins, and start playing for development. I have never saw a guy who played so long, so we'll, have such a terrible grasp of the basic philosophies of the game. You can lead him to the spreadsheet, and call him analytical, but that doesn't mean he accepts what mode his team is in, and what goals they should achieve. Btw, very nice write up Nick, thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

Joe Mauer is either a HoF or very close....but he's not going to help this team win ball games next year. IMO. If you sort on offense and first baseman....it's not pretty on the leaderboards for this team.

 

Also odd: Astudillio (sp?) has not caught one time. The reports from the internet say he has an average glove back there. Given the state of catching in this org, I don't understand why he hasn't caught. Heck, he's barely played the last few days, despite, so far, showing he might be a hitter. Maybe he can play first next year, while we wait for Rooker or give Sano more time at 3rd?

 

I expect Lynn to be traded, and maybe Escobar and Rodney. That's about it, I'd guess.

[Doomtints]

 

"Nobody I'd rather have up with runs on second and third, down 1 run."

It is interesting that last year the Twins actually did better on the road (44-37) than home (41-40), so that clearly is the difference from this year.

 

Don't forget (I've been saying this for nearly a year now) -- last year was an unusually down year for the AL. We shouldn't read too much into the Twins performance last year, nor the lack of performance this year. The Twins hitting right now is similar to what it was two years ago, and last year many thought the ball was "juiced."
 

The Twins are on pace for 72 wins, and this is before pieces start being sold off. Didn't most of us have them pegged for around that many wins last year?

Edited July 9, 2018 by Doomtints

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not a bad analysis, but I think when you say "With all due respect" before disrespecting a guy, you are using the first phrase improperly.

 

Joe Mauer is a living legend. He signed here for much less than he would have collected in New York or LA. That showed loyalty. He has played through injuries and concussions and has shown resilience, guts and desire. He is not what he once was, but he is still Joe Mauer. He will quit when he says. To his critics, this is an annoyance. The rest of us are grateful for every day we get to watch him play. 

I don't think it's disrespectful to suggest the team should have a say in Mauer's next contract.

[mikelink45]

 

To answer the question about the Futures game ... no MLB team is allowed more than two representatives. Some teams only have one prospect going. If you do the math, 25 on each team is 50 players. With 30 MLB teams and each team needs at least one representative, the rule is no team can have more than 2.

Thanks