Twins Sign Top Draft Pick

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins make it official: They have signed 2018 first round pick Trevor Larnach.

 

https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1014969933623635968 

 

The left-handed hitting outfielder from Oregon State will report to Elizabethton to begin his professional career.

 

Larnach finished his collegiate career by helping his school win the College World Series after hitting 19 home runs (tied for 11th in Division 1 in 2018) and a .652 slugging percentage (tied for 27th). 

[gunnarthor]

Good.

[Monkeypaws]

MLB reported a bonus of 2.5 from a slot of 3.12.  

 

Hopefully that will be enough to wrap up the 5th rounder

[h2oface]

I always wonder what a top prospect feels about when the team that drafts him doesn't pony up to the slot value. In this case, $570 K of cheaptitude. I understand that $2.55 MM (per MLB Trade Rumors) is a lot of money for a young man - hell, for most men at all, young or not - but it also means that the team doesn't really think you are worth it. What can the negotiating conversation be, to make it seem otherwise, really? I mean, you have to know that they will cut you in a heart beat in the future, at anytime, if they want to, and not blink an eye. It can't be a "take one for the team, so we can make the Twins better and give your money to a lower draft pick, can it? It just seems cheap to me. I really wonder what the pitch is. Whatever it is, it seems like a horrible way to start a "team" relationship.

[Bill Brown69]

He spent an inning in the radio booth the other night. Sounds like a great young man who just wants to go to work and get back to Target Field with a uniform.

[AZTwin]

I always wonder what a top prospect feels about when the team that drafts him doesn't pony up to the slot value. In this case, $570 K of cheaptitude. I understand that $2.55 MM (per MLB Trade Rumors) is a lot of money for a young man - hell, for most men at all, young or not - but it also means that the team doesn't really think you are worth it. What can the negotiating conversation be, to make it seem otherwise, really? I mean, you have to know that they will cut you in a heart beat in the future, at anytime, if they want to, and not blink an eye. It can't be a "take one for the team, so we can make the Twins better and give your money to a lower draft pick, can it? It just seems cheap to me. I really wonder what the pitch is. Whatever it is, it seems like a horrible way to start a "team" relationship.

Pitch comes before the draft. Feel them up. Say we will take you at X if you can agree in this range. Often they agree because it prevents them from slipping further. Slot value is about $2.5M for pick 26 so it’s like a stop loss for them at a certain point

[Mr. Brooks]

I always wonder what a top prospect feels about when the team that drafts him doesn't pony up to the slot value. In this case, $570 K of cheaptitude. I understand that $2.55 MM (per MLB Trade Rumors) is a lot of money for a young man - hell, for most men at all, young or not - but it also means that the team doesn't really think you are worth it. What can the negotiating conversation be, to make it seem otherwise, really? I mean, you have to know that they will cut you in a heart beat in the future, at anytime, if they want to, and not blink an eye. It can't be a "take one for the team, so we can make the Twins better and give your money to a lower draft pick, can it? It just seems cheap to me. I really wonder what the pitch is. Whatever it is, it seems like a horrible way to start a "team" relationship.

Its not one sided, it's a business decision- for the player as well. He could say no, I won't sign for less than slot, then fall 10 spots and make less money, even at full slot value.

 

It's no different than any other job offer in any other industry. Both sides use their available leverage until they reach an agreement somewhere in the middle.

 

If the team just pocketed that savings, then it might be cheapness. But they don't. Its not about being cheap, the slot values are just guidelines to add up for a total bonus pool, they were never meant to be a rigid allocation amount.

[Squirrel]

It’s also worth noting that no No. 1 overall pick has ever signed for full slot value.

 

I actually think the Twins did a great job this year with their pool money and how many they signed,

[h2oface]

 

Its not one sided, it's a business decision- for the player as well. He could say no, I won't sign for less than slot, then fall 10 spots and make less money, even at full slot value.

It's no different than any other job offer in any other industry. Both sides use their available leverage until they reach an agreement somewhere in the middle.

If the team just pocketed that savings, then it might be cheapness. But they don't. Its not about being cheap, the slot values are just guidelines to add up for a total bonus pool, they were never meant to be a rigid allocation amount.

 

Sure it is a business, but I really don't consider baseball as the same as any other industry. It is truly unique. In so many ways. Sure, one can say it is no different that any other job offer in any other industry, but it is. It is the only MLB industry. Unique in so many ways. But that really doesn't matter. I don't know how that turd can be shined when they tell you that they think you are worth less than the suggested retail price, but the guy picked at many other slots, are. And I/we want to have a lasting relationship with you. A marriage is often considered, among other things, a bit of a business partnership. So is a contract to play ball. Few partners would be likely to take less than the suggested commitment, but there are always outliers. I can guess as much as the other guy. I still really would like to really know what was said, and not just the standard cliche that might come out at a press conference from both sides.

[Dman]

 

Sure it is a business, but I really don't consider baseball as the same as any other industry. It is truly unique. In so many ways. Sure, one can say it is no different that any other job offer in any other industry, but it is. It is the only MLB industry. Unique in so many ways. But that really doesn't matter. I don't know how that turd can be shined when they tell you that they think you are worth less than the suggested retail price, but the guy picked at many other slots, are. And I/we want to have a lasting relationship with you. A marriage is often considered, among other things, a bit of a business partnership. So is a contract to play ball. Few partners would be likely to take less than the suggested commitment, but there are always outliers. I can guess as much as the other guy. I still really would like to really know what was said, and not just the standard cliche that might come out at a press conference from both sides.

 

I get what you are saying.  Money typically equals respect in sports. If you don't pay someone what they think they deserve then there are hard feelings.  I don't think the draft works the same way though. 

 

I would imagine the Twins talked with several agents of players in the range or slightly below the range they were picking and asked a simple question.  If player Z is still there when we pick would he be willing sign for X amount.  You find out how many Yes answers there are and then wait to see how the draft unfolds.  If someone higher on your chart falls to you maybe you go slot if not then you pick one of the guys who agreed to sign for X once they got to the Twins pick.  There should be no hard feelings because an agreement was essentially in place before the draft and the player fell to his expected range.  I mean some boards had Larnach in the 30 range so he could have fallen much further if the Twins didn't pick him there.

 

If the scenario was the Twins pick Larnach and then try and lowball him then I could see your point but I don't think that is what happens.  I think teams are pretty careful about meeting a players expectations.  Otherwise it would create too much bad blood and not be worth it.

 

Lewis signed for quite a bit less than slot and I don't see that it has damaged his relationship with the Twins, at least not that I can tell.  These agreements are becoming standard in the draft.  His agent could have said no Trevor will only sign for slot and I doubt the Twins would have picked him in that spot.  Personally I think both sides came out well with the bonus that was agreed to.

[h2oface]

 

Pitch comes before the draft. Feel them up. Say we will take you at X if you can agree in this range. Often they agree because it prevents them from slipping further. Slot value is about $2.5M for pick 26 so it’s like a stop loss for them at a certain point

 

Feel them up? Yikes. And that works for $750 K? 

[Parker Hageman]

Here's a good read from MinnPost's Pat Borzi on Trevor Larnach (and the draft strategy in general): LINK

 

1. The Twins have emphasized taking position players early, as scouting direction Sean Johnson, because of injury risk/flame out potential of high slot pitchers. This method was first identified by the Chicago Cubs after Epstein and company took over. The Cub wanted position players rather than pitchers early in the draft because they viewed those players as cornerstones, guys they could built around. Pitching could be acquired or developed later. This is probably the better route to go considering the difficulty of getting top pitcher picks up to speed. 

 

Since 2000, the Twins have targeted 17 pitchers with first round picks. Only Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios have provided value. Seven have not or have yet to pitch in a Twins uniform (Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Hudson Boyd, Matt Bashore, Carlos Guetierrez, Shooter Hunt and Jay Rainville). Others have made little to no impact (Luke Bard, Matt Fox, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Adam Johnson). 

 

With the four arms, the Twins did find some value over the last 18 years but it has been a low percentage play. The Twins have invested a lot of analytic power into the draft since Falvey/Levine have arrived, impressing many on the staff from before the regime change. Targeting bats is a much better proposition.

 

2. Back to Larnach... I loved the part about him discussing working with a hitting instructor to unlock his power.

 

“I never had a hitting coach in high school,” Larnach said. “The only time I started to work on it and change my swing was when I started struggling at Oregon State. I was able to work with somebody and not only get an understanding of the swing, but take bits and pieces out of my own swing mechanically and put new parts in. That helps add the power to all fields.”

 

 

He went from 3 home runs in 2017 to 19 home runs in 2018. That was a good adjustment.

[Mill1634]

When can we expect to see Trevor appear in a game?

[Sarah]

Really enjoyed watching him in the super regionals and College World Series and saw him in person when he was at Target Field. Hope he has a great career for the Twins and won't hold it against him that his team beat the Gophers...much. :-) 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here's a good read from MinnPost's Pat Borzi on Trevor Larnach (and the draft strategy in general): LINK

 

1. The Twins have emphasized taking position players early, as scouting direction Sean Johnson, because of injury risk/flame out potential of high slot pitchers. This method was first identified by the Chicago Cubs after Epstein and company took over. The Cub wanted position players rather than pitchers early in the draft because they viewed those players as cornerstones, guys they could built around. Pitching could be acquired or developed later. This is probably the better route to go considering the difficulty of getting top pitcher picks up to speed. 

 

Since 2000, the Twins have targeted 17 pitchers with first round picks. Only Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios have provided value. Seven have not or have yet to pitch in a Twins uniform (Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Hudson Boyd, Matt Bashore, Carlos Guetierrez, Shooter Hunt and Jay Rainville). Others have made little to no impact (Luke Bard, Matt Fox, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Adam Johnson). 

 

With the four arms, the Twins did find some value over the last 18 years but it has been a low percentage play. The Twins have invested a lot of analytic power into the draft since Falvey/Levine have arrived, impressing many on the staff from before the regime change. Targeting bats is a much better proposition.

 

2. Back to Larnach... I loved the part about him discussing working with a hitting instructor to unlock his power.

 

 

He went from 3 home runs in 2017 to 19 home runs in 2018. That was a good adjustment.

 

If that is your strategy....you have to be willing to trade prospects for pitchers, or pay for good pitchers....do we think the Twins will do that? Because that's the other part of that strategy. 

[ashbury]

If that is your strategy....you have to be willing to trade prospects for pitchers,...

Yep, and that part is just not that easy of a strategy to pull off, to boot. It's not as though you get to draft an unlimited supply of stud outfielders (say), in preference to pitching. So, now say you do have four good looking outfielders at various stages of development - you still have to decide which three are the keepers for your eventual major league squad, and try to trade the fourth one before any of the other teams catch on that he might indeed be the least valuable. And heaven help you if you guess wrong and trade away a Benintendi by mistake.

 

Substitute "middle-infielders," same argument.

 

I don't really know how the average (or below) sized market team can prosper in this day of moneyball being embraced by the big dogs too.