Article: The Time to Trade Kyle Gibson Is Now

[Andrew Thares]

 

They'll never get a requisite return, IMO, in relation to what he could do for the team next year.

A pitcher of his current caliber will also be expensive on the free agent market.

So he isn't good enough to warrant a good return on the trade market, but he is good enough to earn an expensive contract on the free agent market if he were to be a free agent?

 

I'm sorry but this logic seems flawed.

[wabene]

So he isn't good enough to warrant a good return on the trade market, but he is good enough to earn an expensive contract on the free agent market if he were to be a free agent?

 

I'm sorry but this logic seems flawed.

 

We've been waiting a decade for this team to develop a decent starting pitcher then when they finally do you want to move him for a couple of guys who might develop? That logic seems flawed to me.

[DocBauer]

On seeing the thread headline, reading nothing, my answer was absolutely not.

 

I then read the thread. And it was well thought and logical in all respects.

 

And my answer was still, absolutely not.

 

Look gang, I was a Gibson believer and apologist before wanting to give up on him the first half of 2017. His 2016 season stunk! As did just about every member of the team. And his 2017 season was just as bad the first half, before things began to click for him. And we are SO BEYOND SSS from mid season 2017 to kid season now.

 

I am so tired of repeating myself, but go back and look for yourself at his 2014 and 2015 seasons. In 2014, he would have been a rookie except for 1 1/3 IP, getting his feet wet in 2013 following his return from surgery. Almost every single stat line in 2015 was better than 2015. Look for yourself! His poor 2016 season and bad start to '17 has made him a whipping boy. Now look at what he's done since mid season last year to now and tell me he isn't an entirely different pitcher? We bitch and complain we can't produce quality SP, and now we have a viable #3 SP who sometimes pitches like a legitimate #2 And there is talk of trading him for prospects?

 

What's next, trade Berrios while he's hot for even more prospects? Yes, I'm exaggerating. But I do so to make a point. The new and improved Gibson is beyond SSS. TJ robbed him of a season. He had 2 nice years in the rotation followed by a crappy season and a half. He's finally the SP we kinda hoped he be. And he's still young enough to give us another 2-4 season's of quality performance that won't break the bank. Goodness, he could double his salary and still not cost what Lynn is getting paid this year.

 

Make no mistake from his recent "demotion", Romero will be back again. And he will be a fixture in 2019, health and baseball gods willing. Barring a surprise, the 2019 rotation will be Berrios, Romero, Gibson, Odorizzi, (still solid), and Pineda, (who could also be lights out in the pen), or Mejia, Gonsalves, Slegers, Thorpe, Littell, a re-worked deal for Santana, or a FA to be determined.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If the price is right, absolutely trade him. Anyone for that matter.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

. I still don't like a team full of strangers that are just passing through.

Great quote. Thanks for saying what I also feel. Through the excellent articles here at TD, we get to follow the Twins' prospects, we root for them, we care about them...only to have them cast aside and instead we sign a pitcher who shoots imaginary arrows after "he" saves a game. Not my style.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Last night during the Yankees/Redsox game on ESPN, Gibson was mentioned as one of New York’s possible targets. You’d think Justus Sheffield would be worth 1 more year of Gibby, right?

 

I'm pretty sure that if this offer is on the table, Falvine say yes before the Yankees could hang up the phone.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to say that I'm not a fan of this. I don't think Gibby's cost should be in consideration at all. The team can afford him next season. 

 

I suppose that if the front office thinks Gibby is nothing but smoke and mirrors, then by all means ship him away for a nice haul. I'm not convinced this is the case, and I don't think they team should making trades that don't have an eye on 2019. As bad as this team has been this year, there's certainly some reasonable expectation that says they will bounce back. I just don't see shipping Gibby away. What would next year's rotation be? Odorizzi, Berrios, Romero, Pineda and May/Gonsalves/Littell/Slegers. There's some loss of depth there. Lynn I'd shop. He won't net the prospect Gibson nets, but he's also gone after this year. Gibson is not.

 

Now that said, I'd certainly listen to offers, but it would need to be pretty impressive for me to pull the trigger.

[Doctor Wu]

I think the Twins would be wise to at least float Gibson's name out there and see what other teams will offer. But I doubt we'd get much in the way of a "great" return, maybe a prospect or two, but certainly not another MLB player. For comparisons sake, what did we give to Tampa Bay for Odirizzi over the winter? Just one A-level player who wasn't even a top prospect. So,if we don't get offered much for him I think the Twins might as well hang on to him and hope his recent form continues. We might need that arm next year.

[olivia11]

Really good article. I was against trading Gibson before I read the article and you convinced me that it could very well be the right move (all depending, of course, on a good offer). The number of teams you laid out where Gibson would be a #1, 2, or 3 starter really makes this compelling. 

 

It also makes me wonder where Lance Lynn would rank on those teams - using some combination of this year's numbers and his career averages. Maybe this also means the return for Lance Lynn would be better than we think? (Not as strong, of course, as Gibson since he's the better pitcher this season, has a lower salary, and has an extra year of control). It especially seems compelling to send him to the national league where there's more need among the playoff contenders and where Lynn has been so successful.  

 

Also. I'll add just one more thing. So far -- and from what we know -- I think the front office has proven to be really savvy on the trade market. This gives me confidence that they wouldn't trade Gibson unless they got value back that exceeds Gibson's value to the 2019 Twins. 

 

Just looking at the major trades they've made, I think we can see that they aren't pushovers on the trade market: 

1- Not trading Brian Dozier to LAD for injury-prone-but-still-top-prospect Jose De Leon and likely not much more. Reportedly Falvey and Levine asked for much more - and actively wanted to trade Dozier - but did not budge when offered a sub-par offer despite the organizations need for near-MLB ready starting pitching, which De Leon was.

2 - Jaime García (and Huascar Ynoa) for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. You can have a problem with their decision to sell at the deadline, but this was pretty objectively a good trade. Littell is one of the youngest pitchers in the International League and looks to have a roll on the team for years to come. They got him for 37.1 innings of García.

3 - Brandon Kintzler for Tyler Watson. Again, you can have problems with deadline decision, but this feels like a solid trade for a lottery ticket who's more than a lottery ticket in Watson. Reading the write up on him in the top prospects post from yesterday really does make this feel like a risk worth taking in exchange for 26 innings of Kintzler on a team you decided was out of it. 

4 - Jermaine Palacios for Jake Odorizzi. A single-A non-elite SS prospect in a system where others at his same level have passed him and playing time would've been hard to figure out for a #3-4 starter is an excellent trade. I think no matter how Odorizzi pitches this year, the process behind this is definitely a win for the Twins.

5 - Using international bonus money to get Jacob Pearson and David Bañuelos. This was particularly smart because the Twins had scouted the 2017 draft class so closely given all their picks. These were guys they knew a lot about and who have a lot of the same upside of international free agents they could've signed, but who are a couple years older and easier to scout because of it. Spending money for prospects is something the best organizations do and the Twins never seemed to before.

 

The process - results will come later - behind these trades suggest to me that, if Falvey and Levine do trade one of their higher-value tradeable assets like Gibson, the Twins will be getting equal or greater value back.

Edited July 3, 2018 by olivia11

[SheboyganBrats]

The Twins have too little pitching depth, not too much.  Berrios, Romero, Gibson, maybe Pineda when he returns.  Everyone else that is close is back of the rotation material.  Graterol and Lewis are still a ways away.  Trade from strength, not weakness.  There are a lot of players I'd trade before Gibson.  It seems that trading Gibson means you have given up completely on 2019 and the Twins remain in this unending rebuild.

 

Of course, this comes with the caveat that, if someone makes an offer that blows you away, you take it.  Otherwise, no.

[Andrew Thares]

 

We've been waiting a decade for this team to develop a decent starting pitcher then when they finally do you want to move him for a couple of guys who might develop? That logic seems flawed to me.

Great, now how much value will that actually bring the Twins? This year is shot, so really all you have of Gibson is what he brings you next year. The guy turns 31 in a few months so I'm not really sure a long term extension is in the plans.

 

This organization is loaded with young talent, and the best thing the Twins can do is to continue to support that. If they just decide to hang on to Gibson for next year what does that really mean, a slightly better shot of getting knocked out in the Wild Card game again?

 

If you want that you can have it, but I personally would rather see them continue to develop their young core and give themselves every opportunity to develop a potential World Series caliber roster.

[Tomj14]

My two cents, you always trade somebody if the other team is over paying.

Next year without Gibson in the rotation, the rotation looks like Berrios and a bunch of fingers crossed and pray for everything to work out. Meaning the Twins will be out looking for keeps fill ins as also. Even with Gibson the rotation looks like it could be weak.

The FO needs to make a choice if this is core is what they want to build around (Berrios, Rosoario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler) or if they want to move onto the next core (Rooker, Gordon, Lewis, Kirilloff) and if it is the second choice, then sell everybody but Berrios because that group is looking at 20/21.

[Tomj14]

ESPN has NYY interested in Fulmer (Det), if he is actually available, that is somebody the Twins should be buying.

[mazeville]

I agree with this. Trade Gibson, get a couple of prospects for him. And do so quickly. 

 

Frankly, I would love to see the Twins trade Gibson and Lance Lynn and give guys like Aaron Slegers, Aldaberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves extended looks. Because they'll be needed next year.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gibson had been worth 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR in the first half. If he duplicates that in the second half, and then repeats it in 2019 with -0.5 WAR for aging, he could produce ~4.4 WAR. At $8 mil per win, that would be worth $34.4 mil. His remaining salary is $2.1 million this year, plus arbitration next year which could be $8 mil coming off a good season. So his net value could be $34.4 minus $10.1 or roughly $24.3 mil.

 

Looking at the Yankees, Justus Sheffield is a 55 FV pitching prospect at Fangraphs, which they valued at $22 mil last year, so it's not far off.

 

Of course, assuming that Gibson has it all figured out is a pretty big assumption. There is a lot more risk with Gibson crashing than, say, J.A. Happ, who has been a consistent 3.5-4.5 bWAR performer for the last 3.5 years. (Plus he's left-handed, if they prefer that.) If Gibson is for real, though, he does have the extra year of control. But if the Yankees could deal a lesser prospect like Adams or Tate for Happ, they could potentially deploy Sheffield in the 2019 rotation themselves and save $8 mil towards the luxury tax next year too. Probably what I'd be looking to do.

 

And nothing is too urgent for them -- they largely have a playoff spot locked up, and the bulk of the wild card sorting will occur after the deadline.

[gocgo]

I'm torn.  I like how Gibson has pitched lately.  He seems to have found his confidence and his approach is much better.  However, he's 30 and history is not on his side.  Selling now, if the return is right, seems like the prudent thing to do.  I know people keep talking about Buxton and Sano back next year...Polanco for a full year...there is no guarantee that any of these guys will be able to play in the bigs next year.  At this point, they are all just prospects with promise.

[rghrbek]

I mostly agree with the overall take of the article.  My rational is this.  Gibby was a bad, very bad starting pitcher for the twins over the course of his Career.  Since last August, he has been good, at times very good.  That is 5 months.  I guess the real question is do we think that this will continue?

 

I am very skeptical that it will.  He hasn't been tremendous lately.  Of course I would hate to trade him and be wrong, but I would be even more upset if we kept him on a 3 year deal as some suggest and he regresses to where he has been most of his career.

 

It's a tough call, but I would at least see what we can get.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Gibson had been worth 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR in the first half. If he duplicates that in the second half, and then repeats it in 2019 with -0.5 WAR for aging, he could produce ~4.4 WAR. At $8 mil per win, that would be worth $34.4 mil. His remaining salary is $2.1 million this year, plus arbitration next year which could be $8 mil coming off a good season. So his net value could be $34.4 minus $10.1 or roughly $24.3 mil.

 

Looking at the Yankees, Justus Sheffield is a 55 FV pitching prospect at Fangraphs, which they valued at $22 mil last year, so it's not far off.

 

Of course, assuming that Gibson has it all figured out is a pretty big assumption. There is a lot more risk with Gibson crashing than, say, J.A. Happ, who has been a consistent 3.5-4.5 bWAR performer for the last 3.5 years. (Plus he's left-handed, if they prefer that.) If Gibson is for real, though, he does have the extra year of control. But if the Yankees could deal a lesser prospect like Adams or Tate for Happ, they could potentially deploy Sheffield in the 2019 rotation themselves and save $8 mil towards the luxury tax next year too. Probably what I'd be looking to do.

 

And nothing is too urgent for them -- they largely have a playoff spot locked up, and the bulk of the wild card sorting will occur after the deadline.

 

I guess my question is this, why wouldn't the Yankees simply call up Sheffield? He's ML ready, or very close to it. 

 

Sheffield would definitely get my attention for Gibson, but I doubt he's better than Gibby in 2019.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess my question is this, why wouldn't the Yankees simply call up Sheffield? He's ML ready, or very close to it. 

 

Sheffield would definitely get my attention for Gibson, but I doubt he's better than Gibby in 2019.

I’m not sure 2019 has to be the concern right now. If the team gets a variety of assets at the deadline, they can be aggressive financially and in the trade market come November.

[birddog]

With his two hits last night maybe a NL team will take notice and overpay. He is too valuable to trade for the sake of a trade and his age doesn't concern me as he seems to be getting better. I'm done being overly excited about prospects as I got too excited about Sano and Buxton, so whatever prospects we get should be packaged in the offseason for established players who will make us better.

[ashbury]

Constructing a competent starting rotation is hard. A good one can turn into a bad one in a matter of a few weeks. I'm reluctant to part with a good starter. And I say this as someone who was slow to come to the belief that Gibson finally is one; I don't overstate his value, but trading him would open up a hole that would be filled by question marks rather than sure things.

[nicksaviking]

I was never a Gibson believer until two off seasons ago when I thought the new front office would fix his poor sinker/high contact approach. It took longer than it should have to fix but it looks like he's finally there.

 

But he's waaaaay too old to extend and this team's a complete mess. If you can trade one and a half years of control of Gibson for top end prospects I do it. I don't think this team goes anywhere under Molitor and I doubt he gets canned after this year with two more years in his contract.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I’m not sure 2019 has to be the concern right now. If the team gets a variety of assets at the deadline, they can be aggressive financially and in the trade market come November.

 

That's fair, I'm just not a fan of setting back next year, and I think trading Gibson will do that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I was never a Gibson believer until two off seasons ago when I thought the new front office would fix his poor sinker/high contact approach. It took longer than it should have to fix but it looks like he's finally there.

 

But he's waaaaay too old to extend and this team's a complete mess. If you can trade one and a half years of control of Gibson for top end prospects I do it. I don't think this team goes anywhere under Molitor and I doubt he gets canned after this year with two more years in his contract.

I drank the kool-ade last season, when others were saying ‘19 or ‘20 is the window.... I feel foolish.

 

I’m with you, this version of Gibby isn’t going to make it to ‘20 or ‘21

[nicksaviking]

That's fair, I'm just not a fan of setting back next year, and I think trading Gibson will do that.

I'd change my mind and think 2019 is a possible contention year if the team gets a new manager. My disillusionment with Molitor and his utter lack of personality has me biased against believing this team has any shot at winning it all with him in charge.

[laloesch]

 

Gibson had been worth 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR in the first half. If he duplicates that in the second half, and then repeats it in 2019 with -0.5 WAR for aging, he could produce ~4.4 WAR. At $8 mil per win, that would be worth $34.4 mil. His remaining salary is $2.1 million this year, plus arbitration next year which could be $8 mil coming off a good season. So his net value could be $34.4 minus $10.1 or roughly $24.3 mil.

 

Looking at the Yankees, Justus Sheffield is a 55 FV pitching prospect at Fangraphs, which they valued at $22 mil last year, so it's not far off.

 

Of course, assuming that Gibson has it all figured out is a pretty big assumption. There is a lot more risk with Gibson crashing than, say, J.A. Happ, who has been a consistent 3.5-4.5 bWAR performer for the last 3.5 years. (Plus he's left-handed, if they prefer that.) If Gibson is for real, though, he does have the extra year of control. But if the Yankees could deal a lesser prospect like Adams or Tate for Happ, they could potentially deploy Sheffield in the 2019 rotation themselves and save $8 mil towards the luxury tax next year too. Probably what I'd be looking to do.

 

And nothing is too urgent for them -- they largely have a playoff spot locked up, and the bulk of the wild card sorting will occur after the deadline.

 

I agree.  I want to see more from Gibson, as in an entire season of good starts and that would have to carry over into 2019 as well before I'd offer him an extension.   If someone offers you something good for him I would listen for sure.  

[Brandon]

I mean, he's not driving to Missouri. He has to go through the airport hassle and catch a flight either way.

Addison Reed came to Minnesota cause its closer to his wifes family. Being 500 miles or less most of the time is better than 2000 right?

[Blackjack]

This is a tough one. You win with pitching, it seems like trading Gibson says you're already giving up on 2019, I don't think Berrios plus the motley crew behind him - Slegers, Romero, Littel, etc. aren't going to get it done in 2019.  

 

I guess I'd want to see someone else overpay before I'd trade Gibson.

[howeda7]

We can't trade everyone. We already have 6 or more tradeable pieces. How much less will he be worth 1 year from now. Keep him and look towards 2019. Not dump everyone and look towards 2021.

 

If we trade everyone people suggest we'd be dumping 7 or 8 guys, getting 12 + prospects back in return and then having to release guys in the minors we might still like.

Edited July 3, 2018 by howeda7

[Kelly Vance]

The idea of "trading high" sounds plausible, and people jump on that band wagon so as to appear smart and savvy. But if you keep trading off your good players, just because they now have better value, pretty soon you are Calvin Griffith.  

 

He had a 1965 team that should have won several world series titles, but he sold them off, one at a time. It is the same mentality... and it has nothing to do with winning.   

 

The way to win a title is to identify your solid and dependable core players who are winners and have heart, guys like Kirby, Rex, Bruno and Rat, then surround them with guys who are solid role players, guys like Gladden and Gagne, Lombo, and Chili.

 

The idea that all players are basically fungible and that we need to focus on metrics is illusory. Statistical analysis has its place, but it is only a part of a total analysis. The idea of trading a good player for a shiny new pebble shows a complete lack of understanding of what makes a winning team in the first place. You want a bunch of guys who like playing the game and like playing together as a team. You need chemistry. Every championship team has it. And you don't develop chemistry by thinking of your players as a pile of stats. 

 

The revolving door is what losers do in trying to imitate winners. But that is NOT what the winners do. They build a solid foundation of core players who have guts and desire, and add players who fit that mold.