Article: Week in Review: Cooked

[Nick Nelson]

During a sweltering week in Chicago, the 2018 Twins saw their fleeting hopes further melt away.

 

Granted, half of the season still remains. But as Minnesota staggers into July trailing Cleveland by nine games in the Central, and behind seven others in the Wild Card standings, certain realities are at play as the trade deadline looms.

 

Following another week of tremendously uninspiring play, one need not look at postseason odds to reach an inescapable conclusion: This ship isn't sinking anymore; it's sunk.

 

So where do we go from here?

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/25 through Sun, 7/1

***

Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 35-45)

Run Differential Last Week: -18 (Overall: -34)

Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (8.0 GB)

HIGHLIGHTS

 

This might have been the worst week of baseball the Twins have put forth all year (really saying something!) so extracting highlights isn't easy, but there were a few standouts worth mentioning amidst the wreckage.

 

Firstly, it was great to see Joe Mauer finally flashing some pop. After a quiet series against the White Sox, he busted out at Wrigley Field, going 5-for-10 with two doubles, a home run and eight RBIs on Friday and Saturday. In those two games, Mauer drove in more runs than he had in his previous 39 combined, and collected half as many extra-base hits.

 

That of course speaks to the lack of any power dimension in Mauer's game this year – he entered the Cubs series with an egregiously bad .322 slugging percentage. It's been disappointing to see after he slugged .417 with 36 doubles last season, both his highest marks since moving to first base. But over the weekend he at least showed that some hint of pop remains in his bat, which was very much in doubt.

 

Making a potentially more important offensive statement was Ehire Adrianza, who's been producing at the plate for a while now. His week included a four-hit game at Guaranteed Rate Field, and saw him go 9-for-21 (.429) overall while striking out only once.

 

Back in March, when the Jorge Polanco news came down, I wrote about Adrianza and his big opportunity to prove that last year's solid showing at the plate was no fluke. Having shaken off a slow start, he's basically doing that, as his .724 OPS is a notch above last year's (.707) with his 100+ OPS pegging him as a league-average hitter.

 

That might not sound too special, but for a defensive specialist who can play shortstop regularly it's nice, and there is reason to believe Adrianza is still developing at the dish. The 28-year-old has launched four home runs in his past 26 games; previously, he'd hit five total in 224 major-league games.

 

I'll admit to being at the end of my rope with Adrianza during his blunderous April and May, but I'm glad the Twins showed patience and stuck with him. He's making a very good case to return next year as Polanco's backup or possibly even a starter.

 

Speaking of Polanco, he is set to return this week and looked very sharp during his ramp-up in the minors. After a quick stint in Fort Myers, the shortstop moved up to Rochester and went 6-for-13 in four games, so he appears locked in and ready to go. Twins fans could really use some good news, and a big second half for Polanco back in the fold would certainly qualify.

 

One week ago I mentioned that "Willians Astudillo sure seems deserving of a shot," and on Friday he got it, called up to join the Twins ahead of the Cubs series. Astudillo singled in his first MLB at-bat on Saturday and picked up two more hits – including a two-run triple – in his first start on Sunday.

 

A stout free swinger capable of getting the bat on almost any pitch, he plays third base and catcher (and center field, apparently). He was responsible for the

. Now, at 26, with more than 2,300 minor-league plate appearances, he's finally getting his first chance in the big leagues. Astudillo will be a fun one to root for as the rest of this season plays out.

 

LOWLIGHTS

 

It's hard to choose. Last week the "Lowlights" section of this column covered a majority of the roster and this time the same is warranted.

 

Pitchers were terrible, lit up for eight or more runs in four of the six games.

 

The lineup struggled against lousy White Sox pitching, managing seven runs in 31 innings. They were able to get it going a little in the scorching heat at Wrigley but couldn't keep pace with the home squad's relentless attack.

 

Even players among the select group who've reliably gotten it done for Minnesota this year fell into this contagious spiral. Eduardo Escobar went 3-for-23. Trevor Hildenberger allowed a hit or walk to eight of the nine batters he faced on Saturday, and was charged with five earned runs while recording one out; he'd entered the appearance with a 0.92 WHIP. Jose Berrios looked as bad as he has all season on Friday, inducing only four swinging strikes on 78 pitches.

 

But at least those guys have all done their part for the bulk of the first half. The same cannot be said for Brian Dozier, who drove in two runs on the week with solo homers in his first and second-to-last plate appearances. In between, he produced two singles.

 

The first half has been a slog for Dozier, who holds a .221/.311/.397 slash line through 79 games. His power has gone amiss and he's been dreadful in key spots, with a -1.67 WPA that ranks as the team's worst.

 

What has happened to Dozier, who'd seemingly evolved into a steady veteran stalwart? It's clearly not a question of effort or motivation, given the extremely high personal stakes for him this season.

 

The most likely explanation is that age is catching up as Dozier moves past his ostensible prime at age 31. But perhaps there's something more going on. I found this cryptic quote from the second baseman in a recent piece from Dan Hayes at The Athletic to be a curious one:

“It has been a little different,” Dozier said. “There’s some other stuff that only a couple people know about that I haven’t really shared with anybody else and probably won’t until later on down the line. That’s been the most frustrating thing.

 

“But it kind of is what it is. I’ve still got a job to do here and that’s help lead these guys back into the postseason. With that being said, you’re going to get 100 percent of me.”

He backed up that last promise on Sunday when he nearly blew out his leg stretching for an infield single with the team down 9-1, going on to score three times as Minnesota mounted a late (but failed) comeback. On balance, however, even 100 percent of Dozier isn't nearly adequate right now, because it's a mere fraction of the player he's been for the past half-decade.

 

The bright side, I guess, is this: It's already been more or less ordained that Dozier isn't in the plan beyond 2018. So while his ill-timed drop-off is a major bummer for him and his financial future, it doesn't really alter the club's big-picture outlook. More perturbing on that front is Byron Buxton's continued inability to find a workable approach at the plate.

 

While he claims to now be pain-free, Buxton's numbers rehabbing haven't reflected it. He did have a two-hit game in Rochester on Sunday, but it raised his average to .214. In 11 games, he has two doubles and one homer to go along with 15 strikeouts and two walks.

 

Yes, it is a small sample size. But keep this in mind: When Buxton was last in Triple-A, rehabbing in 2017, he went 5-for-12 (.417) with two homers in three games. In 2016 during his brief time there he hit .400 /.441/.545 in 13 games. Now at age 24 he's failing to gain traction, striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. His rehab window is approaching its end, and you've gotta think if all remains as is, the Twins will option Buxton and keep him in the minors.

 

They've already taken that step with Miguel Sano, who remains on an every-other-game regimen in Fort Myers. He actually had a good week down there as he collected eight hits in five games, including a home run Sunday – his first since May 31st in Minnesota. But it's clear that the 25-year-old has a long way to go.

 

TRENDING STORYLINE

 

Now that we're in July, the trade deadline is visibly on the horizon. Their inability to get anything going over the past few weeks has placed Minnesota firmly in the "seller" category, and even though he's having a tough season, Dozier is the most likely candidate to go among core players.

 

His sterling reputation around the league, as well as his known penchant for getting hot and powering up an offense, will boost his value beyond the lackluster stats. That's not to say the Twins will get a haul for him but someone is gonna make it worth their while, especially because – unlike fellow impending free agent Escobar – Dozier's viability as a qualifying offer candidate is no longer really part of the equation.

 

By dealing their back-to-back-to-back team MVP, the Twins can signal the start of a new era by ushering in Nick Gordon alongside Polanco in the middle-infield, or they could keep giving Adrianza regular ABs. But it's a sad way for one of the best careers in recent franchise history to come to an end.

 

It'll be interesting to keep an eye on Dozier's trade market as it starts to take shape in the coming weeks.

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

 

Let's brighten things up a little bit. The Twins have got some absolutely premium bats rising through the system.

 

When Baseball America released its midseason top 100 prospects list last week, Alex Kirilloff moved up 50 spots from the preseason rankings. The 2016 first-round pick is garnering plenty of national attention with his spectacular return from a yearlong absence due to Tommy John surgery.

 

After a quiet first half of the week with Fort Myers, Kirilloff got back to business with a trio of two-hit games against Lakeland. He's batting .341 for the Miracle.

 

Kirilloff was the second-highest Twins prospect on BA's midseason list, behind Royce Lewis, who has now graduated to elite territory at No. 12 overall. Lewis enjoyed another stellar week in Cedar Rapids, tallying 10 hits, including four doubles and a homer, while drawing five walks and swiping three bases on three tries.

 

Fort Myers awaits.

 

Brusdar Graterol, who you can expect to find jockeying with Lewis and Kirilloff for top-three positioning in Twins Daily's midseason top 40 (now underway!), received his promotion from Low-A to High-A and made his debut for the Miracle on Sunday, though it didn't go well as he coughed up five runs on nine hits over three innings.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

It'll be a full week, bisected by the holiday on Wednesday. The four-game home set against Baltimore in the latter portion would look like a huge opportunity if the Twins hadn't already essentially buried themselves. That Orioles team is really, really bad.

 

MONDAY, 7/2: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Brent Suter

TUESDAY, 7/3: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Junior Guerra

WEDNESDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Chase Anderson

THURSDAY, 7/5: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Andrew Cashner v. LHP Adalberto Mejia

FRIDAY, 7/6: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Lance Lynn

SATURDAY, 7/7: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Kyle Gibson

SUNDAY, 7/8: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Jake Odorizzi

 

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 75 | CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side Slip
• Game 76 | CHW 6, MIN 1: Gibby Gets Got
• Game 77 | MIN 2, CHW 1: Walking Away With a Win
• Game 78 | CHC 10, MIN 6: Hey, Remember Joe Mauer?
• Game 79 | CHC 14, MIN 9: It’s Not the Heat, it’s ... Actually, It Is the Heat This Time
• Game 80 | CHC 11, MIN 10: Epic Comeback Falls Short

 

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[Platoon]

Thanks for the nice write up. I really never thought it would be this bad this year. Nothing has went well. I didn't expect us to be the Astros, although I admit three years ago I thought we were on the same glide path. But I didn't expect to be embarrassingly bad either. Loved the film clip of Astudillo picking the guy off first. He looks like he enjoys the game.

[Blackjack]

Thanks Nick!!!

 

Same tune, different year for the Twins.  Out of contention by the All-star break. 

 

Was listening to the broadcast yesterday, Cory and Dan Gladden were arguing about whether they should be buyers or sellers, Cory was pointing out how far under .500 they were vs last years record and Danny was trying to say that the Twins 'had a lot of talent on this team, they deserve a chance'.

 

I was shaking my head until I realized that Gladden has to go into the clubhouse and face the players, of course he's going to be on their side. Lets just hope the front office is taking the long view and doing whats best for the franchise, sell!!!!

[Blackjack]

On another subject, I hope the front office and the Pohlads realize that with the crummy team, attendance is going to suffer and they're going to sell a lot less $10.50 beers and $10 hotdogs at Target field.  I was at Target Field Sat night for the Eagles concert, hotter than he11 but a great concert, but I was appalled at the prices. Last time I was at Target Field beers were $8. Almost like a license to print money.

[MN_ExPat]

So, my son comes to me last night and tells me he wants to make an announcement.   He says, "Dad, I love you but... I have to tell you that I'm officially rooting for the Mariners (and Cubs) the rest of the year."

 

Oh the shame... (btw, anybody looking to adopt a HS RHP freshman with potential to be a NAIA / Div III / Div II player?   Free to a good home)

Edited July 2, 2018 by MN_ExPat

[Vanimal46]

So, my son comes to me last night and tells me he wants to make an announcement. He says, "Dad, I love you but, I have to tell you that I'm officially rooting for the Mariners (and Cubs) the rest of the year."

 

Oh the shame... (btw, anybody looking to adopt a HS RHP freshman with potential to be a NAIA / Div III / Div II player? Free to a good home)

The Mariners seem like a fun team. Can your son let me know if there's a seat left on their bandwagon?

[mikelink45]

I believe there are a lot of bandwagons in town now for those departing the Twins depot.  This week was crushing.  Because it was two Chicago teams this was also personal - Chicago versus Minneapolis (I think St Paul has successfully moved to Saints and United territory).  Luckily I live much closer to Duluth. 

 

If it looked like we had some fight in us it would not be so bad. But we blew the low scoring games and then to even things out we blew the high scoring games.  Where do I look for my Twins solace?  When I hear that we are only half way through the season and a lot can happen yet, it almost sounds like a threat.

 

Does anyone else get that personality switch when listening to the games.  That point where you start to root for the other team because your team is looking so bad and you almost wish they would just collapse so that you could move on?  Thanks to the Central division standings we have a flimsy false hope. 

 

The Minnesota Twins are 35 - 45 in the AL Central which puts them 9 games behind Cleveland and 1/2 game ahead of Detroit in a division with only one team playing winning baseball.

 

In the American League East we would be 18 1/2 games out and in fifth place vying with the Orioles - who we get to play this week - for the worst.

 

In the National League Central where the Cubs play (and they are in second place) we would be 11.5 out and almost tied with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

In the NL West we would only be 10 games out and almost tied with San Diego for last place.

 

The AL West has a nice race and based on the previous posts the bandwagons are headed to Seattle.  In that race we would be 17.5 out and behind the Texas  Rangers for last place.

 

The NL East has those throw in the towel Marlins so maybe we have a chance.  The Marlins are 15.5 games out in last place with a 34 - 51 record!  One less win, six more losses.  I guess we could play in this division - even though we would be 13.5 out and in fourth place.

 

In AL overall standings we are in 11th place with the only teams behind us being the rest of our division (except Cleveland) and those, bring'em on Orioles!  Of course those Orioles are wringing their hands in anticipation too since their division includes the Red Sox and Yankees, the Rays and the Jays.  Minnesota plays in a division with teams that rank 5,12,13,14 and Orioles division ranks 1,2,7, and 9.

 

In the combined league standings we rank #22! with the Tigers, Padres, and Reds within one game of us.

 

I offer this uplifting holiday special because I still hear questions about buy or sell.  I do not want to get rid of everyone, but do sell for the future.  Do not pretend we still have a real chance in 2018.

 

 

[birddog]

Nick, you hit the nail on the head summarizing everything about this season. Without Buxton and Sano assuming leadership, we have to wait for Kiriloff and Lewis which puts us 3 years behind our presumed 2018 or 2019 for eminence. We thought we had a plethora of depth at the start of the season, but I don't really see any top prospects ready to help out at the MLB level, at least not at AA or above. Rooker has been so-so and I agree that Gordon should be up soon when we can trade Dozier. 

 

Maybe Cave will prove that he belongs, but I don't see any OF help if Wade is not close to ready and Buxton should not be back until he can hit .280 or better at AAA. Gonsalves never gets a chance to prove he belongs (though this is the first year he may not deserve it) and other pitchers who do, don't have any margin for error before sent down again like Littell. Yet we give other team's rejects like Motter and Wilson extended time before we realize why they only hit .170 for those other teams. Yes, we had injuries, a suspension, and underperformers, but we were no way prepared for this disaster. I had a lot of confidence in our front office, but they have to make some major moves to raise this Titanic we call the Twins.

 

 

[markos]

I don't know if this has been discussed on other threads, but I just noticed that Eduardo Escobar has a .371 OPS since getting hit on the arm on June 21. It is a small sample (just 40 PAs), but certainly doesn't seem like a coincidence.

[Tomj14]

 

Nick, you hit the nail on the head summarizing everything about this season. Without Buxton and Sano assuming leadership, we have to wait for Kiriloff and Lewis which puts us 3 years behind our presumed 2018 or 2019 for eminence.

And if Kiriloff and Lewis end up like Buxton and Sano this year, Maybe the guys we draft next year will be the core of the next possible team.

 

That is why it is to tough to be a buyer or seller this year. If we sell and Buxton and Sano never are stars they are at least a few years from hoping the next group will be the core, if they buy and Buxton and Sano never are the stars they are screwed going forward.

IMO I believe we need to be a buyer and buyer of young and controller talent.

That should mean everybody on the roster not named Berrios, Rosario, Buxton and Sano (unless someone makes a crazy offer) and everybody in the minors are available.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know if this has been discussed on other threads, but I just noticed that Eduardo Escobar has a .371 OPS since getting hit on the arm on June 21. It is a small sample (just 40 PAs), but certainly doesn't seem like a coincidence.

Why couldn't it be coincidence? Escobar had a .427 OPS over 38 PA in the same time frame (June 22-July 1) in 2017.

 

He has an ample track record to suggest that his early season hitting was unsustainable.

[mazeville]

Just sell already.

 

The Twins should make a number of trades. I'd trade Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed for whatever I could get. And I'd trade Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier and Lance Lynn. 

 

And then I'd try again next year. But what a major disappointment this year has been. 

[Platoon]

And if Kiriloff and Lewis end up like Buxton and Sano this year, Maybe the guys we draft next year will be the core of the next possible team.

 

That is why it is to tough to be a buyer or seller this year. If we sell and Buxton and Sano never are stars they are at least a few years from hoping the next group will be the core, if they buy and Buxton and Sano never are the stars they are screwed going forward.

IMO I believe we need to be a buyer and buyer of young and controller talent.

That should mean everybody on the roster not named Berrios, Rosario, Buxton and Sano (unless someone makes a crazy offer) and everybody in the minors are available.

Which I assume means a seller of our "talent"?

[Tomj14]

 

Which I assume means a seller of our "talent"?

Yes/Sure, it means doing something to get more controllable talent. Which we don't have a much of if Buxton and/or Sano bust.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

(btw, anybody looking to adopt a HS RHP freshman with potential to be a NAIA / Div III / Div II player?   Free to a good home)

And I thought the current Adopt a Prospect forum involved too much commitment!

[Vanimal46]

Just sell already.

 

The Twins should make a number of trades. I'd trade Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed for whatever I could get. And I'd trade Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier and Lance Lynn.

 

And then I'd try again next year. But what a major disappointment this year has been.

I'm not sure what you or others think they can get for our players on expiring contracts. It's certainly not going to be anyone who will help the MLB team anytime soon. And I'd argue it probably won't help Cedar Rapids/Fort Myers either.

 

They still need people to wear a Twins uniform the rest of the season. There's very little available to replace those players.

[ChrisKnutson]

Depending on whether they think they can catch the Mariners in the WC race, I see the Angels as a good match for the Twins. They don’t really have a 1st baseman in Pujols, Zack Cozart is out for the year, and all their pitchers are getting hurt. We could send any one of Mauer, Dozier, Reed, Pressly, Rodney, Gibson, and Lynn and get a decent return. Names to me that stand out are Kevin Maitan, Jahmai Jones, and Torii Jr.

[Vanimal46]

Depending on whether they think they can catch the Mariners in the WC race, I see the Angels as a good match for the Twins. They don’t really have a 1st baseman in Pujols, Zack Cozart is out for the year, and all their pitchers are getting hurt. We could send any one of Mauer, Dozier, Reed, Pressly, Rodney, Gibson, and Lynn and get a decent return. Names to me that stand out are Kevin Maitan, Jahmai Jones, and Torii Jr.

I'm sure those names stand out to every seller. The Twins aren't going to get their #2 and #3 org ranked prospects for rental players.

[ChrisKnutson]

I'm sure those names stand out to every seller. The Twins aren't going to get their #2 and #3 org ranked prospects for rental players.

Obviously not all 3 of them, but maybe Gibby and Reed would be enough to land Jahmai Jones

[markos]

 

I'm not sure what you or others think they can get for our players on expiring contracts. It's certainly not going to be anyone who will help the MLB team anytime soon. And I'd argue it probably won't help Cedar Rapids/Fort Myers either.

They still need people to wear a Twins uniform the rest of the season. There's very little available to replace those players.

Yes, the prospects acquired are not going to be anything close to top prospects. However, they will retain some value beyond 2018, which is more to say than the players that are leaving. At the very least, there is a good probability that the prospects will have enough value that they could be used next year (or beyond) if the Twins are competitive and need to acquire their own rentals. And maybe one of them will actually turn into a valuable big league contributor.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Depending on whether they think they can catch the Mariners in the WC race, I see the Angels as a good match for the Twins. They don’t really have a 1st baseman in Pujols, Zack Cozart is out for the year, and all their pitchers are getting hurt. We could send any one of Mauer, Dozier, Reed, Pressly, Rodney, Gibson, and Lynn and get a decent return. Names to me that stand out are Kevin Maitan, Jahmai Jones, and Torii Jr.

Actually Pujols is doing all right at 1B so far this year. 0.5 bWAR versus Mauer's 0.6. Like Mauer, he's better off at 1B than DH as long as he can provide decent defense.

 

Likewise, Kinsler (1.2 bWAR) is pretty much equal to Dozier (1.3).

 

Escobar could potentially help them at 3B, maybe Rodney in the pen. Gibson would definitely help but I don't know if we'd want to trade him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, the prospects acquired are not going to be anything close to top prospects. However, they will retain some value beyond 2018, which is more to say than the players that are leaving. At the very least, there is a good probability that the prospects will have enough value that they could be used next year (or beyond) if the Twins are competitive and need to acquire their own rentals. And maybe one of them will actually turn into a valuable big league contributor.

The prospects that teams want to trade will often be their fringe 40-man / Rule 5 eligible guys already, meaning it would also cost us a roster spot to try to keep them through the winter and beyond.

[Vanimal46]

The prospects that teams want to trade will often be their fringe 40-man / Rule 5 eligible guys already, meaning it would also cost us a roster spot to try to keep them through the winter and beyond.

Correct. The 'value' for 2019 and beyond is relative. They may acquire a fringe 40 man prospect like Enns, or a Zack Jones type that flames out in AA. I guess they're still breathing and on roster which could be valuable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking back at our 2017 deadline, it definitely looks like Enns was a near future DFA, and Littell was probably someone the Yankees didn't want to invest a 40-man spot on either. Maybe the same for Moya, Arizona has a very good pen and had probably identified better ways to use the 40-man spot than a fringe reliever (specialist?).

 

We really only got Tyler Watson as a non-fringe 40-man guy, and he doesn't appear to have advanced at all in the past year -- K rate has regressed, and he's still in A ball. Still a year away from Rule 5 consideration, but he probably doesn't get you much at this deadline. Likely less than Brandon Kintzler in All-Star form.

[wsnydes]

 

On another subject, I hope the front office and the Pohlads realize that with the crummy team, attendance is going to suffer and they're going to sell a lot less $10.50 beers and $10 hotdogs at Target field.  I was at Target Field Sat night for the Eagles concert, hotter than he11 but a great concert, but I was appalled at the prices. Last time I was at Target Field beers were $8. Almost like a license to print money.

I believe that they inflate the concession prices a bit for concerts (I noticed it too), but you're correct in that they're inflated to begin with.  Concessions and ticket prices keep rising, but attendance and the quality of the on field product are going in the opposite direction.  The Eagles may have been the best thing I've seen on that field this year.

[mazeville]

 

I'm not sure what you or others think they can get for our players on expiring contracts. It's certainly not going to be anyone who will help the MLB team anytime soon. And I'd argue it probably won't help Cedar Rapids/Fort Myers either.

They still need people to wear a Twins uniform the rest of the season. There's very little available to replace those players.

 

I'm not under any illusion that any of these guys could get much on the open market, though a reliever like Rodney could fetch an OK return. And the Twins have made some somewhat sneaky good trades involving players on expiring contracts.

 

And there's plenty of players available ... 

 

The Twins have a number of young relievers in AAA who could step in and help the big league club. They could call up Nick Gordon to replace Brian Dozier and they have Adrianza on the roster who could be the effective replacement for Escobar, given the presence of Polanco.

 

The thing I hate the most is "we can't make trades we won't get anything for those guys." We face the prospect of losing these guys at the end of the year, anyway. People like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney and Brian Dozier are blocking young guys who WILL be here next year, and we'd lose them for nothing in almost any case. So why not get something for them?

[Vanimal46]

I'm not under any illusion that any of these guys could get much on the open market, though a reliever like Rodney could fetch an OK return. And the Twins have made some somewhat sneaky good trades involving players on expiring contracts.

 

And there's plenty of players available ...

 

The Twins have a number of young relievers in AAA who could step in and help the big league club. They could call up Nick Gordon to replace Brian Dozier and they have Adrianza on the roster who could be the effective replacement for Escobar, given the presence of Polanco.

 

The thing I hate the most is "we can't make trades we won't get anything for those guys." We face the prospect of losing these guys at the end of the year, anyway. People like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney and Brian Dozier are blocking young guys who WILL be here next year, and we'd lose them for nothing in almost any case. So why not get something for them?

Yeah, I'm not advocating keeping all of them. They need to explore the opportunity cost for each player and determine if it's worth getting another 2 months of production from them, or trade for a modest return.

 

There appears to be relievers waiting as replacements. They'll be in competition with the 12 other teams selling that have relievers as well.

 

I'm not sure if the FO feels Gordon is ready for MLB playing time... It will be interesting to see if Dozier is dealt and the return he would net.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The thing I hate the most is "we can't make trades we won't get anything for those guys." We face the prospect of losing these guys at the end of the year, anyway. People like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney and Brian Dozier are blocking young guys who WILL be here next year, and we'd lose them for nothing in almost any case. So why not get something for them?

I think if you carry that too far, you will get lower returns. There's a reason teams generally don't trade every single one of their expiring contracts, even when they are out of contention. You dilute the market, weaken your future negotiating leverage, etc.

 

Take Dozier for example. Seems unlikely to return, but Gordon seems less likely to be ready by opening day 2019, even with a few months experience in MLB this year. He has a 70 wRC+ at Rochester. There's not an obvious decision either way. If we're close enough that a marginal win could still be useful in 2018, maybe we'd rather keep Dozier and hope for a hot streak. Or just look for signs that Dozier may not be off the cliff, and retain the inside track at keeping him on a 1 year deal for 2019 while we ease Gordon in.

 

Take Rodney. We actually have a cheap 2019 option on him. Given our suspect pen, we might want to pick that up, if the trade return isn't particularly great (and it probably wouldn't be, Chris Paddack notwithstanding).

[mazeville]

 

I think if you carry that too far, you will get lower returns. There's a reason teams generally don't trade every single one of their expiring contracts, even when they are out of contention. You dilute the market, weaken your future negotiating leverage, etc.

 

Take Dozier for example. Seems unlikely to return, but Gordon seems less likely to be ready by opening day 2019, even with a few months experience in MLB this year. He has a 70 wRC+ at Rochester. There's not an obvious decision either way. If we're close enough that a marginal win could still be useful in 2018, maybe we'd rather keep Dozier and hope for a hot streak. Or just look for signs that Dozier may not be off the cliff, and retain the inside track at keeping him on a 1 year deal for 2019 while we ease Gordon in.

 

Take Rodney. We actually have a cheap 2019 option on him. Given our suspect pen, we might want to pick that up, if the trade return isn't particularly great (and it probably wouldn't be, Chris Paddack notwithstanding).

 

I would highly doubt that the Twins would be able to trade ALL of those pieces, especially in a year with so few contenders. But I still believe in getting something for them rather than nothing and think the team should make an effort to sell off a couple of pieces. 

 

In the case of Rodney, a 2019 option would make him a more attractive candidate on the trade market because it means they have an extra year of control. Relievers tend to get the most return at the deadline because contending teams typically can always use an extra arm in the bullpen. Age works against Rodney a bit, but he could definitely fetch a return. 

 

As for Dozier, do you really believe the Twins plan to sign him to a QO? They haven't given any indication at all that they would like him beyond this year. And his performance has been terrible thus far in 2018. So maybe it would just be a one-year deal, but it would be an expensive one-year deal. I'm just not so sure they do that. I don't know that I would do that.

 

Assuming the Twins want to compete next year, they would be far better off keeping Escobar and letting Dozier walk. Maybe Escobar is expensive, but with his positional versatility he is a tremendously valuable player to have around and he could man second base while Gordon gets up to speed. 

[mazeville]

 

Yeah, I'm not advocating keeping all of them. They need to explore the opportunity cost for each player and determine if it's worth getting another 2 months of production from them, or trade for a modest return.

There appears to be relievers waiting as replacements. They'll be in competition with the 12 other teams selling that have relievers as well.

I'm not sure if the FO feels Gordon is ready for MLB playing time... It will be interesting to see if Dozier is dealt and the return he would net.

 

Then we're basically in agreement.

 

The market is going to be pretty buyer friendly this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see few deals get done as a result. So it's not like I think the Twins should get rid of all of those players. But it's going to make for a rather dull deadline unless the Orioles deal Machado.

 

I doubt Dozier gets much at this point, to be honest. Escobar is the best bet to fetch any sort of return among position players but Escobar is also someone you'd want on your team next year if you plan to contend.