Twins - Game Started %

[Riverbrian]

The distribution of playing time has been a pet topic of mine for quite some time. 

 

I've felt that Paul Molitor will ride the same horses into the ground and felt that Dave Roberts of the Dodgers would not and so I looked for a Game Started percentage stat and couldn't find one so I did the research myself. Who are each managers go to guys and how often do they go to them.

 

How many games available to start on the 25 man - How many games started - Percentage of games started - Current OPS+   

 

I understand that a managers choices are much more nuanced than this. It does not account for boo-boos not bad enough for DL time, strength of bench options and other factors but in the end... these are the numbers regardless. 

 

It should be close to accurate but I admit it should have a +/- margin of error at the same time since I did it by hand. 

 

This is the ranking of the Twins by Game Started Percentage. You'll notice that the Twins have 7 players that are in the starting lineup 9 out of 10 times when on the active roster. 4 of those players have been below average offensive players including Buxton with an OPS+ 7. 

 

TWINS
Dozier  80-77 96% OPS+ 90
Escobar  80-75 94% OPS+ 134
Rosario  80-75 94% OPS+ 153
Buxton  28-26 93% OPS+ 7
Kepler  80-72 90% OPS+ 93
Sano  41-36 88% OPS+ 84
Mauer  55-48 87% OPS+ 105
Morrison 80-63 79% OPS+ 79
Adrianaza 80-54 68% OPS+ 100
Grossman 80-53 66% OPS+ 81
Castro  29-19 66% OPS+ 39
Cave  16-10 63% OPS+ 80
Garver  80-40 50% OPS+ 86
LaMarre 64-29 45% OPS+ 78
Wilson  52-23 44% OPS+ 26
Astudillo 3-1 33% OPS+ 180
Motter  13-4 31% OPS+  -60
Petit  38-8 21% OPS+ 102

 

Now the Dodgers... They only have only 2 players who will play 9 out of 10 times. The Twins have 5 players that play more often than Bellinger who is the Dodgers top go to guy.

 

I know that many just assume that the Dodgers have purchased better players because of the size of the payroll but look at the names. The bulk of Dodger dollars was spent on Pitching. The Dodgers have stayed alive with names like Taylor, Muncy and Kike Hernandez. Even Turner was a waiver claim. The top dollar guys are not feeding this club however... look at how the low OPS guys are congregating toward the bottom. With the Dodgers it doesn't matter if you used to be a top 5 prospect like Pederson or a former all-star veteren like Utley. You have to perform to get playing time. 

 

DODGERS
Bellinger 83-75 90% OPS+ 118
Seager  27-24 89% OPS+ 104
Taylor  83-70  84% OPS+ 113
Puig  75-63 84% OPS+ 106
Kemp  82-68 83% OPS+ 133
Verdugo 11-9 82% OPS+ 88
Turner  43-33 77% OPS+ 115
Muncy  67-49 73% OPS+ 173
Forsythe 57-41 72% OPS+ 53
Grandal  83-56 67% OPS+ 100
Hernandez 83-48 58% OPS+ 116
Pederson 83-45 54% OPS+ 137
Utley  65-28 43% OPS+ 73
Locastro 7-3 43% OPS+ 77
Barnes  83-34 40% OPS+ 71
Farmer  46-14 30% OPS+ 70
Valera  24-4 17% OPS+ 27

 

One last question... We know the Dodgers can out spend us... But, are the Dodgers also better at back filling their roster. We latch on to Grossman... They latch on to Taylor, Muncy, Turner, Toles, Hernandez or are the Dodgers just giving those guys a chance to be depth. 

[notoriousgod71]

Pretty difficult to rest guys when you are playing with a three man bench.

[Riverbrian]

 

Pretty difficult to rest guys when you are playing with a three man bench.

 

It's not difficult at all. 

 

However, rest wasn't really the point.

 

Molitor turns to Dozier, Buxton and Kepler at a higher percentage than Bellinger. 

 

Or keep it in house... Molitor turns to Dozier, Buxton, Kepler and Sano at a higher percentage than he does Mauer. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It's not difficult at all.

 

However, rest wasn't really the point.

 

Molitor turns to Dozier, Buxton and Kepler at a higher percentage than Bellinger.

 

Or keep it in house... Molitor turns to Dozier, Buxton, Kepler and Sano at a higher percentage than he does Mauer.

the counterpoint is also, how do you expect guys like Rosario and Escobar to continue to perform at a high level if you never rest them?

[Doomtints]

The Dodgers are a better team. Dave Roberts has the problem of getting all of his good players on the field. Paul Molitor has the problem of trying to field a team that can win games.

 

Without looking, I would wager the Twins profile of games started by player is more normal in the MLB. Most teams are closer to the Twins than they are the Dodgers when it comes to talent.

[Riverbrian]

 

the counterpoint is also, how do you expect guys like Rosario and Escobar to continue to perform at a high level if you never rest them?

 

When a player is 2 for his last 25. That would be a good time to rest a guy. 

 

[adjacent]

I think this is a good idea. I had the same feeling, but too lazy to do the research. However, a good AL team wouldn't be a better comparison? Let's say, Houston or Seattle? I say because the NL has different rules, so the way a manager uses his players has to be a little different.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Dodgers are a better team. Dave Roberts has the problem of getting all of his good players on the field. Paul Molitor has the problem of trying to field a team that can win games.

 

Without looking, I would wager the Twins profile of games started by player is more normal in the MLB. Most teams are closer to the Twins than they are the Dodgers when it comes to talent.

 

I think you are correct. I think most baseball clubs would be closer to the Twins style of games started percentage but it doesn't make the Dodgers wrong. 

 

I also agree... that the Dodgers have spoiled themselves with options. Just look at the OPS of each player and it's clear that the Dodgers are the better club but take a closer look at the names causing that good problem to have. It's a whole lotta 600K guys. 

 

It is easy to assume that the Dodgers just went out and bought that talent since they have a payroll around 190 million. 

 

They didn't buy it... Look where the money is and look where the production is in comparison. They created that depth by playing the players who are performing and moving away from the players who are not.

 

How do the Dodgers get lucky every single year with Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez. Chris Taylor... JUSTIN TURNER Many people forget that Justin Turner was non-tendered by the Mets. The Dodgers just scooped him up. 

 

They are obviously better at finding these gems... Are the scouts just better? is it the brilliance of Farhan Zaidi or is it Dave Roberts not tolerating sub-par play from the vets and giving the opportunity to Max Muncy and rewarding him with more playing time if he is getting the job done?

 

If Max Muncy would have signed with the Twins instead. Can anyone say with certainty that Molitor would have played him enough to discover that Max Muncy could help the team. I'm not sure.

 

As much time as we spend shopping on the scrap heap you would think we would stumble across a Muncy or two along the way. The best we've done is: Grossman?  

 

How would Dave Roberts handle Byron Buxton? Look how he handled Joc Pederson. Sano? Take a look at Puig. Dozier? Look at Forsythe. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I think this is a good idea. I had the same feeling, but too lazy to do the research. However, a good AL team wouldn't be a better comparison? Let's say, Houston or Seattle? I say because the NL has different rules, so the way a manager uses his players has to be a little different.

 

I agree... You would probably have to factor in the DH somehow. I also think non DL time with Boo-Boo's will skew things a bit. 

 

I simply chose Roberts and the Dodgers because they are the extreme example on the other side and the I've been making the point that Dave Roberts would not have tolerated the performances of our players. 

 

Look at Bellinger at the top of the list. Uber Prospect, Sophomore Year. Brian Dozier can only play 2B while Bellinger can play and has played 1B and CF plus the other OF positions.

 

Yet Bellinger obviously easier to get into the lineup since he plays multiple positions and more important to any lineup because he is producing much much better than Dozier leads the Dodgers at 90% while Brian Dozier is at 96%.. 

 

This speaks Volumes to me. Every manager should be paying attention to this. 

 

Did the Dodgers create their depth out of thin air by giving the depth a chance? Did they stumble upon it or identify it? Why are the Dodgers creating it and the Twins not creating it? Shouldn't it be the opposite? Shouldn't the Dodgers be the team with no room for the Muncy types to flourish with all that Money to spend on Bryce Harper? Shouldn't it be the Twins who don't have the budget for Bryce Harper that needs the occasional pay off from a Max Muncy type. 

 

These are good questions. I'm hopeful that the Twins try to figure out the answer and think about it for 2019 and beyond planning. 

[verninski]

I think you may be on to something, there may be guys that obviously are able to get rested and still perform, be it age or off time management, but I would like to see if guys like Dozier would do better with strategic days off. I know this wasn’t meant to be looked at for a rest standpoint, but it may be a way to look at it. Good work!

[nicksaviking]

Good research. This team only has two players I want to see play regularly though. Well three after you add Astudillo.

 

I'm more concerned with Molitor's irresponsible bullpen usage.

[Platoon]

Examples: Dozier, hitting so poorly even MOY is forced to move him down to 6 or 7 spot I think. Three days later he is hitting cleanup? In essence you can't hit well enough to lead off or hit two, so you get moved to cleanup? Message sent?

 

You put utility IF EE at third, and very rookie catcher/3B Astudillo at second? Put players in postion to succeed?

 

Tie game tenth inning. Veteran reliever Belisle, a MOY favorite. Or Littel a rookie starter brought up for long relief in an emergency to eat innings. You throw Littel to the wolves, and LEAVE him there? In this situation if Belisle is not better than Littel, what exactly is he doing on your roster? Or are you protecting the vet?

 

EE, (whom I like) rounds third idiotically on a non thrown IF bobble. Gets picked off. MOY makes excuses for the move. Eddies a good guy, has been a godsend this year. The baserunning mistake was high school level.

 

If one doesn't think the dugout sees this, and realizes that performance and playing time are not interrelated, then one should take another look at the way we baseball. It's ugly. A managers biggest task may be putting players in a position to succeed. Molitor does not do that, and the dugout is well aware of it.

[Riverbrian]

This game started percentage thing was just something that I came up with to try and show the difference between Roberts and Molitor. 

 

I posted it because I did the work and might as well share it and thought it would be an interesting talking point at the very least. I know it is quite possible that there are multiple considerations that can poke holes in it but it is worth discussion from "The Distrubution of Playing Time" to "The filling out of the 25 man roster" to the "The selection of AAAA Talent and or development of AAAA Talent". 

 

And maybe it can be expanded even further. As we discuss weather Paul Molitor is the right man for the job and use traditional applications or personal feelings to form our opinions.

 

Is it possible that some sabremetric minded brilliant mind can use "game started percentage" as a starting point to come up with a metric that assesses the ability of a manager to get the most out of his lineup? 

 

Could you take "Game Started Percentage" for each player and combine it with performance metrics of each player and create a new bang for the buck stat that can then be combined with the rest of his teammates to create an overall stat that reflects the manager lineup decisions. 

 

It seems to me... that a smart metric guy could figure something out? Maybe Not? 

[Riverbrian]

 

I think you may be on to something, there may be guys that obviously are able to get rested and still perform, be it age or off time management, but I would like to see if guys like Dozier would do better with strategic days off. I know this wasn’t meant to be looked at for a rest standpoint, but it may be a way to look at it. Good work!

 

Absolutely, this is another part of the discussion that is worth tackling. Thank You. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Good research. This team only has two players I want to see play regularly though. Well three after you add Astudillo.

I'm more concerned with Molitor's irresponsible bullpen usage.

 

Bullpen usage can be approached the same way. I just did position players but you can take the same approach with the pen. Appearances, Innings pitched, compared with the performance metrics of the player. Is he giving the ball to his best guys? You'd have to try and factor in the real bad inning. If a relief pitcher gives up 5 runs without getting an out... they don't have the sample size to stabalize the number but yeah... you could absolutely come up with something to measure his decisions in regards to the pen. 

 

Don't like how Molitor is using his bullpen. You could come up with a metric that puts a number on it and see how he compares to his peers. 

 

I don't want to make a manager completely plastic by using metrics as the only tool. But I'd like real time information on the overall result of those decisions. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Examples: Dozier, hitting so poorly even MOY is forced to move him down to 6 or 7 spot I think. Three days later he is hitting cleanup? In essence you can't hit well enough to lead off or hit two, so you get moved to cleanup? Message sent?

You put utility IF EE at third, and very rookie catcher/3B Astudillo at second? Put players in postion to succeed?

Tie game tenth inning. Veteran reliever Belisle, a MOY favorite. Or Littel a rookie starter brought up for long relief in an emergency to eat innings. You throw Littel to the wolves, and LEAVE him there? In this situation if Belisle is not better than Littel, what exactly is he doing on your roster? Or are you protecting the vet?

EE, (whom I like) rounds third idiotically on a non thrown IF bobble. Gets picked off. MOY makes excuses for the move. Eddies a good guy, has been a godsend this year. The baserunning mistake was high school level.

If one doesn't think the dugout sees this, and realizes that performance and playing time are not interrelated, then one should take another look at the way we baseball. It's ugly. A managers biggest task may be putting players in a position to succeed. Molitor does not do that, and the dugout is well aware of it.

 

Dozier remaining in the leadoff spot come hell or high water is what kind of led me to this assumption of an auto-pilot type managing style of Molitor. 

 

I don't care much about batting order... I really don't. I've always figured it was the privilage of the manager and not mine but... Dozier bats lead off every game regardless of how he is playing. How long did it take Paul to finally shift Dozier out of the lead off spot. My opinion is too long. 

 

Too many times... I hear people complaining about LaMarre, Cave, Motter, Petit and all of these guys who don't play that often. Are they going to be Max Muncy... Probably not... If they don't get a chance they won't for sure but either way... I don't care... they are on the 25 man roster and available to play and should absolutely be utilized to let the starters know that they can't play like crap and expect to go to their position every day without checking the lineup to see if they deserve it. 

 

At the very least... you can look at the numbers and say that nearly all of them have out-performed Buxton and Morrison, possibly Sano, Some have been better than Kepler and some have been better than Dozier. 

 

I want a team that will at the very least be competing for precious playing time.

 

I'm with ya. 

[old nurse]

Bellinger, has not played in 1 game this season, Taylor 2, Kemp 3,  Hernandez 5, Puig  3 not including dl time), Pederson 7.  Muncy has not played in 7 of the 70 games since his call up. Turner has not played in 3 games since his return from the dl. All are appearing in over 90% of their teams games.

[Riverbrian]

 

Bellinger, has not played in 1 game this season, Taylor 2, Kemp 3,  Hernandez 5, Puig  3 not including dl time), Pederson 7.  Muncy has not played in 7 of the 70 games since his call up. Turner has not played in 3 games since his return from the dl. All are appearing in over 90% of their teams games.

 

They do a lot of pinch hitting and defensive switches in the National League. So Bellinger may not start but he may still swing a bat. 

 

I purposely stuck with Games Started exclusively because the starter will get the bulk of the at-bats. 

[old nurse]

 

They do a lot of pinch hitting and defensive switches in the National League. So Bellinger may not start but he may still swing a bat. 

 

I purposely stuck with Games Started exclusively because the starter will get the bulk of the at-bats. 

They are playing, not resting

[Riverbrian]

They are playing, not resting

Resting is a secondary or territary point. Primary point is who the managers are giving the playing time to with starts.

[old nurse]

 

Resting is a secondary or territary point. Primary point is who the managers are giving the playing time to with starts.

Starting in and of itself matters other than rest in no tangible way

[Riverbrian]

 

Starting in and of itself matters other than rest in no tangible way

 

Can you expand your thoughts a little?

 

Are you saying who starts doesn't matter?

[old nurse]

 

Can you expand your thoughts a little?

 

Are you saying who starts doesn't matter?

I was left wondering if by what you posted that you thought who starts does not matter. Other than to give your player a break from playing, there does not seem to be any point in not starting your best players. If you end up thrust in the game and playing, you are not really resting.  If it does count as rest, then so wouldn't DHing count as resting?

[Riverbrian]

 

I was left wondering if by what you posted that you thought who starts does not matter. Other than to give your player a break from playing, there does not seem to be any point in not starting your best players. If you end up thrust in the game and playing, you are not really resting.  If it does count as rest, then so wouldn't DHing count as resting?

 

I apologize for not being clear. 

 

If Logan Morrison is one of our best players but performing like one of our worst. How long before he isn't considered to be one of our best players? 

 

As for rest... if you pinch hit and hit a ground ball to SS and then went back to the bench, that seems pretty restful but if you pinch hit and stay in the game as a defensive replacement... not so much. There are degrees obviously. Does the player need a physical break, a mental break? Does the player need to be sent a message? It can be complicated and most of it is out of our view. 

 

Overall, You seem to be saying... Play your starting 9 with 3 or 4 guys on the bench who mostly watch the other 9 unless one of the starting 9 needs the occasional break. 

[old nurse]

 

I apologize for not being clear. 

 

If Logan Morrison is one of our best players but performing like one of our worst. How long before he isn't considered to be one of our best players? 

 

As for rest... if you pinch hit and hit a ground ball to SS and then went back to the bench, that seems pretty restful but if you pinch hit and stay in the game as a defensive replacement... not so much. There are degrees obviously. Does the player need a physical break, a mental break? Does the player need to be sent a message? It can be complicated and most of it is out of our view. 

 

Overall, You seem to be saying... Play your starting 9 with 3 or 4 guys on the bench who mostly watch the other 9 unless one of the starting 9 needs the occasional break. 

I am not commenting in any way how to play the game, only observing that Roberts uses his main guys in almost every game, too.

Logan Morrison up to this point in the season may well have been the 8th or 9th best player, depending on if he or Grossman was having a better week. Sano's poor play has landed him in the minors, Buxton's poor play has led him to the minors. LeMarres poor batting has led him back to the minors.  Pettit got cut, Motter will get cut. If any of them had shown anything this year there would be different outcomes for Morrison and Grossman. If Vargas or Carter had been hitting in AAA  one of them  might have gotten a shot. How is that for consequences for poor performances.  The number of position players in a bat funk at the major league and AAA level is quite large. The heads that roll at some point is not going to be the Levine hires., though something appears to be going wrong on 2 levels for batting. and selecting replacement level players. Phil Hughes got rewarded for his inability to come back, he got traded to San Diego for the chance to get them the number one pick.

[mngopherguy]

A food for thought thread for sure.  Not sure what I think except Cal Ripken is not happy with this thread.

 

I'd be more interested in seeing what Houston, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City are doing comparatively, but no way I'm doing the work.