Article: Revisiting Molitor vs. Lovullo

[jorgenswest]

Mid market teams are going to need among the best front office and contend.

 

Is Molitor among the best 10 managers in baseball? If not, they need to seek a better manager. Mediocre to average isn’t good enough for this market.

[wsnydes]

 

I would assume it's not all that different than how things are worked out regarding the hitting, pitching, bench, bullpen, and whatever other coaching titles there are.  I do think you still need a point man, but I think the skill set for that person has changed a lot.

 

Not unlike the change we've seen in FOs by the way.  The idea that every FO in baseball would be packed with Stanford stat nerds and not old Terry Ryan-type scouts would've been foreign to baseball even 10-15 years ago.

 

I think the manager position meets the same fate eventually.

This makes more sense than what I was interpreting.  However, basically what you said, is that it's not all that different (if at all) than it is now.  If you still have a point man, would he not be the manager?  Even if not in title?

 

I agree that the manager position has changed a lot in a rather short amount of time.  The skill set required is evolving and always will.  The game is constantly evolving, it only makes sense that all those players and coaches involved will also need to evolve.  I think where I might differ from your opinion is that the "point man" will always be a baseball guy.  I think there's much more to managing that analyzing data and making a decision.  Will that person need to know how to use data effectively?  Absolutely.  But he's also going to need to know the game beyond the data.  I'm not sure if you're disagreeing with that at all though.

 

I think FO's can be filled with Stanford nerd types more practically than a dugout.  The decisions that a FO make are more data driven to begin with.  The day to day routine's are completely different requiring completely different skill sets.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

 

I think FO's can be filled with Stanford nerd types more practically than a dugout.  The decisions that a FO make are more data driven to begin with.  The day to day routine's are completely different requiring completely different skill sets.

 

How many decisions do you think Molitor, or some other analytics manager, makes during the course of any game that couldn't just easily be handled by a statistician?  Or someone who can read a flow-chart for decision making?

 

I think there will still be a "manager" but it will look nothing like it does now.  If this was the year 2000 and I told you nearly every FO in baseball was going to be constituted as it is today, I'd have been laughed off as a heretic.  It's coming to the dugout, it already is.  

Edited June 29, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[3balls2strikes]

 

A ) I want a manger who can lead young players, not a manager who can lead veteran players who are then expected to lead the young players.

 

B )  I want a manager who will minimize the players' brain farts on defense, on the base-paths and in the batter's box. Some are always to be expected, but holy cow, the degree in which we see miscues can only be due to a team-wide lack of focus.

 

C ) I want an innovative manager. I don't want someone who has to be taught ideas that were new a decade ago and who will maybe take them under consideration. I want someone who may have a brand new idea or two of his own that the baseball world has never seen.

 

D ) I want a manager with energy that I, yes me specifically, can feed off of as well as the players. Perhaps some managers put on an emotionless face and monotone speech ONLY when doing interviews but it seems unlikely that a completely opposite demeanor is presented when working with the players.

 

E ) Sorry, the unfair one: I want a manager with NO pre-existing ties to the team. If he's not getting the job done, I want a quick decision to replace him. If he maybe-kind of-possibly isn't getting the job done, I want there to be the possibility of hiring the newly available hot-shot manager who's getting everyone excited. I don't want there to be fence-straddling due to a prior history of loyalty which had absolutely nothing to do with managing a baseball team.

This X infinity! Great post!

[wsnydes]

 

How many decisions do you think Molitor, or some other analytics manager, makes during the course of any game that couldn't just easily be handled by a statistician?  Or someone who can read a flow-chart for decision making?

 

I think there will still be a "manager" but it will look nothing like it does now.  If this was the year 2000 and I told you nearly every FO in baseball was going to be constituted as it is today, I'd have been laughed off as a heretic.  It's coming to the dugout, it already is.  

I would argue that Molitor is a poor example to use, but to your point, it doesn't take a massive amount in game.  One move or non-move can drastically alter a game.  Most of the managers work is outside of the game anyway.  That's how it's always been.  

 

How many in-game technique/mechanics adjustments or on the fly game plan changes can your statistician make?  Is that person going to notice that the opposing pitcher doesn't have his fastball that day and adjust the batters game plan accordingly?  Is that statistician going to notice that they're working a hitter a particular way and call for a hit and run to take advantage of it?  That's the sort of thing a good manager is looking at.  Sure, you have the "experts" to do some of that stuff, but the more eyes on those types of things the better off you will be.  

 

I don't disagree that those sorts of skill sets will creep into the dugout.  they clearly are, but if the game progresses to the point where it's so robotic that nobody makes any sort of strategical adjustments based on current game conditions, then it's going to get even more boring than it is already becoming.  There will likely be statisticians sitting in the dugout feeding the manager info, but the guy making the decisions has to understand what's going on on the field as much as he understands the information he's being given.  That part of your point I don't disagree with at all.  The game is already there.

 

For what it's worth, when Epstein was hired by the Red Sox it was pretty clear even before he accomplished anything that that was where baseball was going to go in my view.  The game the FO plays and the game in the dugout are two very different games though.

Edited June 29, 2018 by wsnydes

[jimbo92107]

Who would you like to coach you in all the fine details of professional baseball? Hands down, Paul Molitor. Unfortunately, that's not his job today. The Twins elevated Molitor to a position above what he's best at, which is coaching. Managing is an entirely different skill, and Molitor has not shown the same level of proficiency in that role. 

 

Terry Francona was the guy that should have been hired to manage the Twins. My own second choice was Terry Steinbach, and then Jake Mauer, just to see him ordering around his brother!

[TheLeviathan]

 

How many in-game technique/mechanics adjustments or on the fly game plan changes can your statistician make?  Is that person going to notice that the opposing pitcher doesn't have his fastball that day and adjust the batters game plan accordingly?  Is that statistician going to notice that they're working a hitter a particular way and call for a hit and run to take advantage of it?  That's the sort of thing a good manager is looking at.  Sure, you have the "experts" to do some of that stuff, but the more eyes on those types of things the better off you will be.  

 

 

No, the stats guy won't do those things, but as you say there are other guys who might be able to do that.  

 

I don't know how the changes will ultimately look, but I do think they're coming.  And part of that is the realization that managers aren't as significant as we've thought.  (They were probably always less significant than we thought, but the gap is growing IMO)

[laloesch]

 

A ) I want a manger who can lead young players, not a manager who can lead veteran players who are then expected to lead the young players.

 

B )  I want a manager who will minimize the players' brain farts on defense, on the base-paths and in the batter's box. Some are always to be expected, but holy cow, the degree in which we see miscues can only be due to a team-wide lack of focus.

 

C ) I want an innovative manager. I don't want someone who has to be taught ideas that were new a decade ago and who will maybe take them under consideration. I want someone who may have a brand new idea or two of his own that the baseball world has never seen.

 

D ) I want a manager with energy that I, yes me specifically, can feed off of as well as the players. Perhaps some managers put on an emotionless face and monotone speech ONLY when doing interviews but it seems unlikely that a completely opposite demeanor is presented when working with the players.

 

E ) Sorry, the unfair one: I want a manager with NO pre-existing ties to the team. If he's not getting the job done, I want a quick decision to replace him. If he maybe-kind of-possibly isn't getting the job done, I want there to be the possibility of hiring the newly available hot-shot manager who's getting everyone excited. I don't want there to be fence-straddling due to a prior history of loyalty which had absolutely nothing to do with managing a baseball team.

 

Easy like at least for me.

[Mike Sixel]

IMO, hiring someone to lead a MLB team that had never managed before was a mistake. Leading a large group of people is not something you just pick up w/o any practice.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[wsnydes]

 

No, the stats guy won't do those things, but as you say there are other guys who might be able to do that.  

 

I don't know how the changes will ultimately look, but I do think they're coming.  And part of that is the realization that managers aren't as significant as we've thought.  (They were probably always less significant than we thought, but the gap is growing IMO)

You might be right on that they have been less significant than we've thought, at least in game. I still think they're more important outside of the game. Once the game starts, most of their job is done.

 

Thanks for the debate! I enjoyed it.

Edited June 29, 2018 by wsnydes

[TheLeviathan]

 

You might be right on that they have been less significant than we've thought, at least in game. I still think they're more important outside of the game. Once the game starts, most of their job is done.

 

Thanks for the debate! I enjoyed it.

 

I did as well and I agree with your first paragraph.  Unfortunately, we have very little way of knowing how good he is at that.  

 

I do also want to say to Mike's point, that managerial experience is a major factor.  Even in a changing baseball world with a de-emphasis on the old-school thinking, managing people is a skill precious few people are really good at.  Some level of experience at it in lower levels should be a prerequisite.  

[Mike Sixel]

Did they really sacrifice bunt in front of JO? Or was that an attempt at a hit?

[USAFChief]

Did they really sacrifice bunt in front of JO? Or was that an attempt at a hit?

Infield single, plus error. No sac.

[launchingthrees]

 

Wouldn't we be better off eliminating the manager position and just hiring 3-4 people who are experts at all of those jobs instead?  

 

It seems to me we still hire "baseball people" for a job that really has very little anymore to do with what happens no the field.

 

I've seen you post this a lot but baseball is an information saturated environment. Certainly more so than the other major sports.The idea that data driven billion dollar organizations are spending millions when they could be spending 10 cents on the dollar is incredibly unlikely.

 

What are you basing your assertion on? It seems likely that FOs would be very open to cutting 1 million off their books at the cost of 0 wins and even more unlikely that random internet posters would have found that market inefficiency before 100% of teams. What do you know that they don't?

Edited June 29, 2018 by launchingthrees

[Mike Sixel]

 

Infield single, plus error. No sac.

 

Gameday said sacrifice and error.....I'm cool with bunting for hits, to be clear...

[mikelink45]

 

Looking at 3+ years of overall track record and pointing at 2 months that are clearly outside of the norm is also cherry picking.

 

The peaks and valleys this team exhibit is insane.  The fact that Molitor can't even teach his team his own strengths as a player is alarming and problematic.  I'm a firm believer that HoF type players generally make terrible coaches because things come so naturally to them that they don't know how to pass that knowledge on to others.

 

I don't care so much about his overall record.  I care about his inability to get the most out of the players that he is given.  I care about his inability to get his team to play solid fundamental baseball.  Doing the little things requires no minimum skill level.

I disagree.  Who does he teach?  Buxton who can't get on base, Sano who loves the Ks as much as the HRs, Dozier and Morrison and Garver and Adrianze who float around the 200 mendoza line?  Maybe Mauer and his concussion protocol.  Or are we looking at LaMarre, Cave and Motter.  NO a HOF manager cannot teach bottom basement players to be stars.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I disagree.  Who does he teach?  Buxton who can't get on base, Sano who loves the Ks as much as the HRs, Dozier and Morrison and Garver and Adrianze who float around the 200 mendoza line?  Maybe Mauer and his concussion protocol.  Or are we looking at LaMarre, Cave and Motter.  NO a HOF manager cannot teach bottom basement players to be stars.

 

so what is he accountable for then?

[mikelink45]

 

I've seen you post this a lot but baseball is an information saturated environment. Certainly more so than the other major sports.The idea that data driven billion dollar organizations are spending millions when they could be spending 10 cents on the dollar is incredibly unlikely.

 

What are you basing your assertion on? It seems likely that FOs would be very open to cutting 1 million off their books at the cost of 0 wins and even more unlikely that random internet posters would have found that market inefficiency before 100% of teams. What do you know that they don't?

We already have those 3 - 4 experts.  Who is Pickler? Who is Derek Shelton????????????/ How is Rudy Hernandez doing as assistant hitting coach?  Or Mr Rowson as the bat guru?  

 

What are Tom Kelly Special Assistant to the General Manager

—  Justin Morneau Special Assistant to Baseball Operations
—  Michael Cuddyer Special Assistant
—  LaTroy Hawkins Special Assistant
—  Torii Hunter Special Assistant
—  Jim Kaat doing as special assistants?

 

and if you want to go further who are 

Rod McCormick Equipment Manager
—  Edgar Varela Minor League Field Coordinator
—  Rick Eckstein Minor League Hitting Coordinator
—  Sam Perlozzo Minor League Infield/Baserunning Coordinator
—  Pete Maki Minor League Pitching Coordinator
—  J.P. Martinez Minor League Assistant Pitching Coordinator
—  Tanner Swanson Minor League Catching Coordinator
—  Mike Quade Minor League Outfield Coordinator
—  Chad Jackson Minor League Rehab Coordinator
—  Ian Kadish Minor League Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Tony Leo Head Athletic Trainer
—  Perry Castellano Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Eric Beiser Assistant Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Masamichi Abe Assistant Athletic Trainer
—  Matt Biancuzzo Assistant Athletic Trainer
—  Dustin Morse Executive

and what are they doing? 

 

Or what are 

Senior Vice President, Operations Matt Hoy
Senior Vice President, General Manager Thad Levine
Vice President, Assistant General Manager Rob Antony
Vice President, Technology John Avenson

doing?

 

And continuing in the Front office there are (some repeats)

Executive Assistant Danielle Berg
Executive Assistant Jordan Cue
Special Assistant Bert Blyleven
Special Assistant Rod Carew
Special Assistant Kent Hrbek
Special Assistant Tom Kelly
Special Assistant Jack Morris
Special Assistant Tony Oliva

responsible for?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

Who do

Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Michael Cuddyer
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations LaTroy Hawkins
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Torii Hunter
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Justin Morneau
Director, Baseball Operations Daniel Adler
Director, Professional Scouting Brad Steil

report to?  What are they responsible for?

 

 

Has Assistant Director, Player Development Alex Hassan developed any players?

 

How are we benefiting from Senior Manager, International Administration and Education Amanda Daley

Senior Manager, Minor League Operations Brian Maloney??????

 

I am too exhausted to continue down this list of geniuses.  It is definitely easier to blame Molitor. 

 

[wsnydes]

I disagree. Who does he teach? Buxton who can't get on base, Sano who loves the Ks as much as the HRs, Dozier and Morrison and Garver and Adrianze who float around the 200 mendoza line? Maybe Mauer and his concussion protocol. Or are we looking at LaMarre, Cave and Motter. NO a HOF manager cannot teach bottom basement players to be stars.

Didn't say turn them into stars. He can teach them to run the bases correctly, throw to the correct base, situational hitting and fielding... little things that don't require a minimum skill level. I'm not asking for miracles, just fundamental baseball. This team lacks it.

[Thrylos]

 

Well, I also consider NHL coaches in the same boat. 

 

Sports are becoming more and more about data and talent.  If you have the best data and some of the best talent - you'll win.  Pretty much regardless of your manager.  If you don't, you won't.  And since baseball is so driven by individual player matchups (unlike the NFL, NBA, and NHL) it reduces the impact of coaching in the moment.

 

In the macro level, like making a lineup and playing match-ups for sure.  On the other hand good managers observe what happens on the field and react accordingly.   

 

For example if the pitcher cannot get his fastball over and relies more on breaking stuff and slow pitches, a good manager ups the running game.  Also, if he sees the opposing runner taking a long lead off first base, he tries to have him picked up.  Furthermore, if you have a series of games, a good manager does not burn all of his bullpen in blow out games.

 

That a statistician cannot do.

[launchingthrees]

 

 

We already have those 3 - 4 experts.  Who is Pickler? Who is Derek Shelton????????????/ How is Rudy Hernandez doing as assistant hitting coach?  Or Mr Rowson as the bat guru?  

 

What are Tom Kelly Special Assistant to the General Manager

—  Justin Morneau Special Assistant to Baseball Operations
—  Michael Cuddyer Special Assistant
—  LaTroy Hawkins Special Assistant
—  Torii Hunter Special Assistant
—  Jim Kaat doing as special assistants?

 

and if you want to go further who are 

Rod McCormick Equipment Manager
—  Edgar Varela Minor League Field Coordinator
—  Rick Eckstein Minor League Hitting Coordinator
—  Sam Perlozzo Minor League Infield/Baserunning Coordinator
—  Pete Maki Minor League Pitching Coordinator
—  J.P. Martinez Minor League Assistant Pitching Coordinator
—  Tanner Swanson Minor League Catching Coordinator
—  Mike Quade Minor League Outfield Coordinator
—  Chad Jackson Minor League Rehab Coordinator
—  Ian Kadish Minor League Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Tony Leo Head Athletic Trainer
—  Perry Castellano Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Eric Beiser Assistant Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
—  Masamichi Abe Assistant Athletic Trainer
—  Matt Biancuzzo Assistant Athletic Trainer
—  Dustin Morse Executive

and what are they doing? 

 

Or what are 

Senior Vice President, Operations Matt Hoy
Senior Vice President, General Manager Thad Levine
Vice President, Assistant General Manager Rob Antony
Vice President, Technology John Avenson

doing?

 

And continuing in the Front office there are (some repeats)

Executive Assistant Danielle Berg
Executive Assistant Jordan Cue
Special Assistant Bert Blyleven
Special Assistant Rod Carew
Special Assistant Kent Hrbek
Special Assistant Tom Kelly
Special Assistant Jack Morris
Special Assistant Tony Oliva

responsible for?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

Who do

Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Michael Cuddyer
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations LaTroy Hawkins
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Torii Hunter
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations Justin Morneau
Director, Baseball Operations Daniel Adler
Director, Professional Scouting Brad Steil

report to?  What are they responsible for?

 

 

Has Assistant Director, Player Development Alex Hassan developed any players?

 

How are we benefiting from Senior Manager, International Administration and Education Amanda Daley

Senior Manager, Minor League Operations Brian Maloney??????

 

I am too exhausted to continue down this list of geniuses.  It is definitely easier to blame Molitor. 

 

I think the job descriptions are mostly self explanatory so I'm not sure what exactly what you're asking.

 

[Jham]

Wouldn't we be better off eliminating the manager position and just hiring 3-4 people who are experts at all of those jobs instead?

 

It seems to me we still hire "baseball people" for a job that really has very little anymore to do with what happens no the field.

Could. Interesting idea. I think people still like the idea of someone being in charge. I mean look at our country. We have a legislature responsible for law making, a judiciary for oversight, and numerous executive agencies, but obviously the president is still the one the nation looks to.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I've seen you post this a lot but baseball is an information saturated environment. Certainly more so than the other major sports.The idea that data driven billion dollar organizations are spending millions when they could be spending 10 cents on the dollar is incredibly unlikely.

 

What are you basing your assertion on? It seems likely that FOs would be very open to cutting 1 million off their books at the cost of 0 wins and even more unlikely that random internet posters would have found that market inefficiency before 100% of teams. What do you know that they don't?

 

Baseball still holds on to a lot of traditions and the new wave of FO types are only beginning to settle in.  I think a revolutionary approach to the dugout is only a matter of time.  

 

You'll still need a go-between of sorts and a person who coordinates the baseball specialists (hitting, fielding,pitching, etc.), but I believe we'll see major changes in what skill set is asked for that role.  It'll be less about a baseball strategist and more about being a people strategist.  

Edited June 29, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[launchingthrees]

 

Baseball still holds on to a lot of traditions and the new wave of FO types are only beginning to settle in.  I think a revolutionary approach to the dugout is only a matter of time.  

 

You'll still need a go-between of sorts and a person who coordinates the baseball specialists (hitting, fielding,pitching, etc.), but I believe we'll see major changes in what skill set is asked for that role.  It'll be less about a baseball strategist and more about being a people strategist.  

 

Maybe, but very likely not. 

 

So are we just supposed to stop talking about managers forever then? Every single Molitor thread now devolves into a manager value discussion with someone making the the totally unfounded claim that managers are irrelevant. If he's neutral EV then what do you care? Hiring a new manager won't hurt anything.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So are we just supposed to stop talking about managers forever then? 

 

It would make more sense.  Let me summarize every future manager thread:

 

I like manager: Every time we play well: "he's awesome! All to his credit" When we don't play well: "Fill in excuse here"

 

I don't like manager: Every time we play well: "yeah but he got lucky, his players are the ones who get credit", When we play poorly: "He sucks, it's his fault"

 

Pretty much exactly what this article produced too.  Even managed to do it about another team's manager in the same article!  At some point when nobody can come up with a good argument for their position, maybe it's not a topic worth talking about.

[mikelink45]

 

so what is he accountable for then?

Actually in this age I think that is a really good question.  

[mikelink45]

 

Didn't say turn them into stars. He can teach them to run the bases correctly, throw to the correct base, situational hitting and fielding... little things that don't require a minimum skill level. I'm not asking for miracles, just fundamental baseball. This team lacks it.

And do we know where the teaching responsibilities lie with the flow chart of specialists?  I do not know how to define manager any more.

[mikelink45]

 

I think the job descriptions are mostly self explanatory so I'm not sure what exactly what you're asking.

No they are not self explanatory.  What do special assistants assist with?  What do consultants consult about.  What do all these layers do and what is the manager suppose to do.  It is not clear at all. 

[wsnydes]

And do we know where the teaching responsibilities lie with the flow chart of specialists? I do not know how to define manager any more.

Nope, but if the guy with that responsibility isn't getting the job done, it's on the manager to either help or find someone that can. Either way, that isn't happening.

 

Considering the fact the fundamentals were a strong suit of Molitors game, it stands to reason that he should be able to instill them in his players. I don't see that happening at all.

Edited June 30, 2018 by wsnydes

[mikelink45]

 

Nope, but if the guy with that responsibility isn't getting the job done, it's on the manager to either help or find someone that can. Either way, that isn't happening.

Considering the fact the fundamentals were a strong suit of Molitors game, it stands to reason that he should be able to instill them in his players. I don't see that happening at all.

I was once employed as an assistant manager.  I soon figured out that the assistant was there to take the crap for anything that goes wrong.  In our system I see Molitor as an on the field assistant to the FO. I feel sorry for him.