Article: Revisiting Molitor vs. Lovullo

[Jamie Cameron]

Nick Nelson wrote an excellent article asking if Paul Molitor is the right man to take the Twins to the next level. I already have my answer, it’s no. For the purposes of this discussion though, I’ll ask a different question: Was Torey Lovullo better suited to lead this Twins organization, given its own unique context, to consistent relevance?

 

I think the answer is yes."Now, if we could just find some offense." I’ve seen this evergreen sentiment regarding the Twins frustratingly up and down play since April. 2018 has been a season of irritation for Twins fans, characterized by an anemic offense, a bullpen which has been solid but ineffective in the most critical situations, and comical base-running on a daily basis.

 

Molitor won Manager of the Year in 2017 after a historically impressive second half from the Twins offense. Let’s reground ourselves in some of those numbers:

Download attachment: Molitor1.png

If we look at Molitor’s record as manager outside this sliver of a season, it’s pretty bleak.

Download attachment: Molitor2.png

It might seem like I’m cherry picking here by leaving out August-October of 2017. Two points to counter that argument: firstly, how often does your team offense click enough to lead every important offensive category as a team, over a two month stretch? Secondly, Molitor’s Twins teams do not have a consistent track record of being competitive.

 

This brings us to the really challenging aspects of evaluating team, organizations, and roles - culture and climate. It’s impossible to measure or begin to assess Molitor’s true impact on the Twins, because the nature of teams and organizations is that the problems and challenges they are attempting to overcome are adaptive, not technical. What we can do, is look at indicators of Molitor’s impact. The best place to start is on the field.

 

Matt Magill was called up to the Twins at the end of April. Since then, he’s put up solid numbers in limited relief work for the Twins, managing a K/9 of 8.04 and BB/9 of 1.29. While Magill’s 2.45 ERA doesn’t match his 3.92 FIP, he’s at worst, an average MLB reliever. Since being called up, Magill has made 15 further appearances for the Twins. Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, have made 51 combined appearances in that time, with decreasing effectiveness. Molitor had a similar issue with Trevor Hildenberger in 2017, pitching him almost nightly until his effectiveness diminished. The Twins are not playing in one run games on a nightly basis, so why not spread out the work load more?

 

Another aspect of Molitor’s vaunted baseball mind was his technical skill as a base-runner. The Twins are not a base-stealing team in 2018, particularly with no Byron Buxton. They only have 25 stolen bases (league average is 39). They are however, second in pickoffs with 12, with only four other major league teams having more than 7. There is no excuse for being picked off regularly, particularly for a team who isn’t really trying to run in the first place.

 

The most popular counter argument to these ‘team issues’ is to ground them in individual player execution as opposed to managerial impact (particularly base running). This where I think Molitor has a higher degree of culpability than most. While he can’t make the players execute, if he can’t compel their performance towards competence, what is his use and roll? In the business world, the primary work of leaders is to manage through others, in this case, players and coaches. Sometimes the best performers are the worst teachers, and Molitor and his coaches seem to have had a challenging time compelling the 2018 Twins team towards consistent, high level execution.

 

This brings us to Lovullo, the current manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lovullo has presided over his own turnaround in Phoenix, where he won 2017 NL MOY after reversing the Diamondbacks 69-93 record in 2016 to 93-69 in 2017. Currently, the 2018 Diamondback sit in first place at 45-34, in spite of franchise player Paul Goldschmidt getting off to a slow start and their number one starter, Robbie Ray, being sidelined for most of the season with an oblique strain.

 

Lovullo has quickly become known through major league baseball for embracing the analytical side of the game. While Molitor is often thought of as a great baseball mind, modern analytic trends tend to show up less in his decision making, such as a lineup constructed around Brian Dozier hitting leadoff and Joe Mauer hitting second in recent history (although the two recently flip-flopped positions).

 

More importantly, Lovullo has become known for a strong culture of clear and transparent communication with his players since taking on the role. Upon taking the job, Lovullo expressed some of his initial organizational goals ‘Establishing a culture of togetherness and family and unity was the most important thing to me’. The culture is not simply reflected in Lovullo’s own thoughts, but also those of his players. Zack Godley said of Lovullo ‘We just really enjoy playing for him. I think the trust he puts in us allows us to put the trust in him as well.’

 

While these reflections may sound like a trite, sports movie cliché, I think they are particularly important given the context of the Twins organization. The current Minnesota team has a core of talented young players. What’s typically true about young teams is that highs are higher and lows are lower. There is often a need for more intentional and vocal leadership on such teams. I find myself wondering increasingly if Lovullo was a better contextual fit with the Twins than Molitor was.

 

The final thought I have is a wondering. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have brought in several players whose strengths have fallen under the mantle of ‘clubhouse leader’. Matt Belisle is a perfect example of this. He has no business being on the Twins roster with Busenitz, Duffey, Curtiss, Bard, Moya, and Reed all offering more upside. If the Twins are in such dire need of clubhouse leadership then both their veteran players, and Molitor himself, have a lot to answer for.

 

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[Blake]

If the Twins continue to flounder, two things should be considered:

 

Firing Molitor and DFA Dozier or Mr. Mauer if they cannot be traded.*

 

*I love chumming the waters.

[terrydactyls]

"Sometimes the best performers are the worst teachers." Can I get an AMEN from the choir? In my 40 years of experience in the business world, I have seen many outstanding workers promoted into management and fail miserably. Being extremely good at a job does not guarantee success as a manager. I've been a fan of Molitor since I watched him at the U of M and heard many scouts saying he'll never make it as a pro. I was glad when they hired him to lead the Twins. But now, I think it's time to make a change. None of the things that made Molitor great as a player have shown up on the field. Sorry Paul.

[Darius]

The Twins organization made a bad decision. Shocking.

[EddieMatthews]

I agree with Terry Dactyls that success as a "doer" does not automatically transfer to manger skills.  It's critical for a manager to set up his "team" for success.  That includes the coaches.  

 

A good manager will know the strengths and weaknesses and supplement as needed.  If Molitor isn't a "rah-rah" guy and the Twins need that in the dugout, find it in a coach or player.  

 

Often a sub-par player will pay attention to what goes into success and will carry that into a manager role.  There's nothing preventing a star performer from also doing this if (s)he is willing to try new things and learn from failure.  

 

But the jury is no longer out on the Molitor tenure.  Whether he lacks the skills or he lacks the willingness to fill in for his shortcomings, the result is less than satisfactory.

 

All that said, the manager doesn't hit the ball, pitch, catch, or run bases.  The pitching staff for the 2015, 2016, 2017 Twins was abysmal.  There was no effort to get quality starters on the mound.  A defensive sieve of infielders and outfielders can be disheartening to pitchers when they need to get 4 outs in an inning.  A batting order with holes in it means that opposition pitching can pitch around our best hitters.  

 

2018 pitching is improved.  We have been missing key members of the line-up all year.  2017 surge in August and September was led by Buxton, Polanco, Dozier, Mauer, ( Sano - no) and Fast Eddie.  No hope for improvement on the offensive side of the game.

[dbminn]

In May 2018, Arizona lost Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker to the DL. Also, Jake Lamb and AJ Pollack missed half the games to the DL. Goldschmidt and Peralta gave them a whopping -0.9 WAR while playing the full month. After a 20-8 April, Lovullo was able to rally the team to an 8-19 record in May. Miss key players and veterans don't perform, then managers don't win.

 

The Twins have been without five key players for almost the entire season. Ignoring that impact (and excusing their performance the 2nd half of 2017) is cherry picking.  

[mikelink45]

Sorry to rain on all the Molitor haters, but I just put up a blog because my reply was too long for the post and I really believe it is time to look at the FO and deflect some of the frustration from our manager.  The Twins have more consultants, coaches, analytics specialists than ever before and it is also time to look at their roles.  Who are they, why are we getting such poor performances from our players.  Molitor does not bat or pitch, he just puts out the messy platter of players he has been provided with.  Fire Molitor and maybe we would only be at 40 losses.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1028/entry-11133-maybe-it-isnt-molitor-take-a-look-at-our-new-front-office/

[wsnydes]

 

In May 2018, Arizona lost Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker to the DL. Also, Jake Lamb and AJ Pollack missed half the games to the DL. Goldschmidt and Peralta gave them a whopping -0.9 WAR while playing the full month. After a 20-8 April, Lovullo was able to rally the team to an 8-19 record in May. Miss key players and veterans don't perform, then managers don't win.

 

The Twins have been without five key players for almost the entire season. Ignoring that impact (and excusing their performance the 2nd half of 2017) is cherry picking.  

Looking at 3+ years of overall track record and pointing at 2 months that are clearly outside of the norm is also cherry picking.

 

The peaks and valleys this team exhibit is insane.  The fact that Molitor can't even teach his team his own strengths as a player is alarming and problematic.  I'm a firm believer that HoF type players generally make terrible coaches because things come so naturally to them that they don't know how to pass that knowledge on to others.

 

I don't care so much about his overall record.  I care about his inability to get the most out of the players that he is given.  I care about his inability to get his team to play solid fundamental baseball.  Doing the little things requires no minimum skill level.

[jkcarew]

Molitor is neither as good as the second half of 2017 indicated, nor is he as bad as the last couple months would indicate.  I said before, I don't think he was the best choice when the Twins hired him.  And don't feel differently now.

 

Twins have made a few high-profile decisions with a nod to (at least a bit) of provincial thinking...Morris (he was coming off a pretty poor '89/'90 stretch), Mauer vs Pryor, Molitor.  As Michael Lee Aday once said, "Two out of three 'aint bad".

[TheLeviathan]

I will take the manager job.  You can pay me 150k and I can promise to be +/- 3 wins from anyone else you hire.

 

I'll also stay true to the time honored traditions of sitting around in my pajamas all day, I know how to use a rotary phone, and I will promise to use snazzy analytics terms while also saying things like "fundamentals", "that's how we played back in my day", and "eye for an eye" if that makes you old-timers feel warm and fuzzy.

 

Oh, and if I don't already have the job, I promise anyone related to Nick Punto will never make our team.  

[Vanimal46]

I will take the manager job. You can pay me 150k and I can promise to be +/- 3 wins from anyone else you hire.

 

I'll also stay true to the time honored traditions of sitting around in my pajamas all day, I know how to use a rotary phone, and I will promise to use snazzy analytics terms while also saying things like "fundamentals", "that's how we played back in my day", and "eye for an eye" if that makes you old-timers feel warm and fuzzy.

 

Oh, and if I don't already have the job, I promise anyone related to Nick Punto will never make our team.

I was bought in on this idea until your last paragraph. We need Punto's grit and hustle around here. Maybe next time!

[theBOMisthebomb]

Why do we exclude the successful portions of Molly's tenure in this analysis? That's the inverse of saying that so and so pitcher would look great if you drop his worst couple of outings and that one inning where he was shelled. Well yeah, that isn't how it works. Molly kept the team together in 2017 when everyone else had said the Twins season was done multiple times. I give Molly credit in 2017 for leading his club to the playoffs. It is too soon to pack up the tents on 2018.

[MangLitch]

 

I will take the manager job.  You can pay me 150k and I can promise to be +/- 3 wins from anyone else you hire.

 

I'll also stay true to the time honored traditions of sitting around in my pajamas all day, I know how to use a rotary phone, and I will promise to use snazzy analytics terms while also saying things like "fundamentals", "that's how we played back in my day", and "eye for an eye" if that makes you old-timers feel warm and fuzzy.

 

Oh, and if I don't already have the job, I promise anyone related to Nick Punto will never make our team.  

 

If they give you a million, will you promise to use more than 3 relievers over a 5 game stretch. 

 

Oh, and can you space out your days of rest so that we don't have to have a lineup like yesterday.

 

Oh, and can you stop playing Grossman.

 

If so, you have my vote.

[caninatl04]

 

If the Twins continue to flounder, two things should be considered:

 

Firing Molitor and DFA Dozier or Mr. Mauer if they cannot be traded.*

 

*I love chumming the waters.

As I've posted before: trading Mauer does not preclude resigning him.  If he really is a "team player", I think he's love the chance to play for the Yankees for two months, play some postseason games and then come back to the Twins, who would then have a B+ prospect.  Win-$%@*-win

[caninatl04]

 

Sorry to rain on all the Molitor haters, but I just put up a blog because my reply was too long for the post and I really believe it is time to look at the FO and deflect some of the frustration from our manager.  The Twins have more consultants, coaches, analytics specialists than ever before and it is also time to look at their roles.  Who are they, why are we getting such poor performances from our players.  Molitor does not bat or pitch, he just puts out the messy platter of players he has been provided with.  Fire Molitor and maybe we would only be at 40 losses.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1028/entry-11133-maybe-it-isnt-molitor-take-a-look-at-our-new-front-office/

It's a fair point.  Could any analytics predict

• injury to starting catcher
• injury / headaches to 1B
• Dozier having an awful year (well, maybe, but this awful?)
• SS having an 80 game suspension
• Said SS punching whatever
• Sano having an awful year (well, maybe, but this awful?-- and yes, I cut and pasted from Dozier)
• Kepler (cut and paste... alas)
• Bux (see Kepler / Dozier)
• The ace's recovery taking so much longer than expected?
• Zero, and I mean zero, depth at the AAA level.

I am not Molitor's biggest fan.  But, let's face it, he's managing a team that has faced the seven plagues.

[caninatl04]

Yes, hindsight is indeed 20/20.   

 

Which (feasible) manager do you recommend? 

 

Perhaps a Spanish speaking bench coach?

[Brandon]

So lets just focus on the negativity and toss the positives. If we do that then, the author is a horrible writer...I am a horrible career person, .....everyone fails.

 

My personal evaluation of Molitor is he has gotten alot out of players, he does overuse some of his pen, but for this season Molitors biggest fault is the collapse of the offense to injury, suspension and slumps. Baserunning blunders are annoying but I bet they go down when there is less pressure to make things happen because the rest of the lineup can pick up its share of the slack. The players seem to respect Molitor and i think he has done the best with what he has.

 

My beef is the front office not going out and trading for a C and maybe a new DH / 1B to help fill holes in the offense.

[Thrylos]

A manager sets the attitude at the clubhouse.

 

The frustrating thing about the clubhouse is it seems to not hate losing.

 

Also, a good manager does not play favorites.  Molitor does not sit his buddies no matter how bad they are.

 

Molitor is not a good manager.

[Thrylos]

 

My beef is the front office not going out and trading for a C and maybe a new DH / 1B to help fill holes in the offense.

 

a. If you are talking about the offseason, they did get a DH/1B.

b. if you are talking about now, is this team a C and yet another DH/1B away from closing the 8 game gap with Cleveland and 13.5 game gap with the second WC spot?

[SheboyganBrats]

My problem with Molitor began early in his tenure.  It was Molitor's first full season and Alex Meyer had had 2 solid starts and one so-so start in Rochester.  Terry Ryan brought up Meyer on a day the Twins needed a starting pitcher.  Meyer had been on schedule to start that day, but Molitor didn't start him.  Instead, several days later Meyer was given a short start, and several days later was sent to the bullpen.  I don't know what really went on, but it seemed like the GM had brought up Meyer to start and Molitor decided otherwise.  We all know that Meyer's shoulder issues subsequently flared up again, and Meyer and his agent made it pretty clear that Meyer wasn't going to pitch for the Twins again.

 

Around the same time Max Kepler was brought up and he also got to rot on the bench.  Inexplicably for Kepler's first plate appearance, he was brought in to face a left-handed pitcher.

 

I may be remembering all of this wrong, but I couldn't figure out why Molitor wasn't using the players he was given.  To me it looked like he was undercutting his GM, or at the very least, they weren't on the same page.  In any event, I developed a very unfavorable view of Molitor's handling of his young players, and my feelings about that haven't changed.

[Brandon]

a. If you are talking about the offseason, they did get a DH/1B.

b. if you are talking about now, is this team a C and yet another DH/1B away from closing the 8 game gap with Cleveland and 13.5 game gap with the second WC spot?

No i am saying we do not have any established replacements at C. Garver is not hitting much and the other guy is not hitting at all. There are C out there who will not cost much to aquire due to contract status

 

Morrison is not fully breaking out of his slump / Mauer may not have much left in the tank. So haveing someone else come in at DH / 1B is a good idea.

 

Polanco and Buxton are almost back.

 

That would be 4 hitters in the lineup being upgtaded over what is out there now.

 

That would give us our best chance as we would have Kepler and the Eds and hopefully Dozier can turn it up some and our lineup goes back to being solid top to bottom.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No i am saying we do not have any established replacements at C. Garver is not hitting much and the other guy is not hitting at all. There are C out there who will not cost much to aquire due to contract status

Morrison is not fully breaking out of his slump / Mauer may not have much left in the tank. So haveing someone else come in at DH / 1B is a good idea.

Polanco and Buxton are almost back.

That would be 4 hitters in the lineup being upgtaded over what is out there now.

That would give us our best chance as we would have Kepler and the Eds and hopefully Dozier can turn it up some and our lineup goes back to being solid top to bottom.

 

I have no confidence that Buxton will upgrade anything at the moment. I really hope he gets an option as well when he's eligible to come off the DL. 

[nicksaviking]

A ) I want a manger who can lead young players, not a manager who can lead veteran players who are then expected to lead the young players.

 

B )  I want a manager who will minimize the players' brain farts on defense, on the base-paths and in the batter's box. Some are always to be expected, but holy cow, the degree in which we see miscues can only be due to a team-wide lack of focus.

 

C ) I want an innovative manager. I don't want someone who has to be taught ideas that were new a decade ago and who will maybe take them under consideration. I want someone who may have a brand new idea or two of his own that the baseball world has never seen.

 

D ) I want a manager with energy that I, yes me specifically, can feed off of as well as the players. Perhaps some managers put on an emotionless face and monotone speech ONLY when doing interviews but it seems unlikely that a completely opposite demeanor is presented when working with the players.

 

E ) Sorry, the unfair one: I want a manager with NO pre-existing ties to the team. If he's not getting the job done, I want a quick decision to replace him. If he maybe-kind of-possibly isn't getting the job done, I want there to be the possibility of hiring the newly available hot-shot manager who's getting everyone excited. I don't want there to be fence-straddling due to a prior history of loyalty which had absolutely nothing to do with managing a baseball team.

[Jham]

People underestimate the importance of managers imo because they're worth isn't easily quantifiable. Motivating over 162 games is hard. getting though to players who think they know everything and make more money than you is hard. Getting players to think "team" in a contract year is hard. Getting players who don't like you or eachother to put differences aside is hard. Dealing with behind the scenes gripes about playing time and usage, briefing the fo, leading coaching staff, handling media is all hard. The lineups and pitching changes are the easy parts. computers would probably beat any human at that game.

[Kelly Vance]

My candidate was Mike Redmond. He had fire, the savvy of a catcher and loves the Twins organization. I talked to Mike one day a couple years back when he was in town for a couple of his son, Ryan's, games. This was before he got the short Miami gig. He would have loved to skipper the Twins. If he would have gotten an offer he would have said yes before the offer was out of St Peter's mouth. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

People underestimate the importance of managers imo because they're worth isn't easily quantifiable. Motivating over 162 games is hard. getting though to players who think they know everything and make more money than you is hard. Getting players to think "team" in a contract year is hard. Getting players who don't like you or eachother to put differences aside is hard. Dealing with behind the scenes gripes about playing time and usage, briefing the fo, leading coaching staff, handling media is all hard. The lineups and pitching changes are the easy parts. computers would probably beat any human at that game.

 

Wouldn't we be better off eliminating the manager position and just hiring 3-4 people who are experts at all of those jobs instead?  

 

It seems to me we still hire "baseball people" for a job that really has very little anymore to do with what happens no the field.

[wsnydes]

 

Wouldn't we be better off eliminating the manager position and just hiring 3-4 people who are experts at all of those jobs instead?  

 

It seems to me we still hire "baseball people" for a job that really has very little anymore to do with what happens no the field.

You've mentioned this before in other threads.  How would this work in your mind?  I don't really agree, but I do think it's an interesting idea.  I'm just not sure how it would work in practice.  I assume that the three or four people have their own discipline in which they work in, but what happens where there is overlap?  What happens a decision must be made quickly?  Wouldn't you need someone to be the "point man", so to speak?  Do these guys also work with the players to improve their skill/technique?

 

I'm genuinely interested in how you see this arrangement work in practice.

Edited June 29, 2018 by wsnydes

[TheLeviathan]

 

You've mentioned this before in other threads.  How would this work in your mind?  I don't really agree, but I do think it's an interesting idea.  I'm just not sure how it would work in practice.  I assume that the three or four people have their own discipline in which they work in, but what happens where there is overlap?  What happens a decision must be made quickly?  Wouldn't you need someone to be the "point man", so to speak?  Do these guys also work with the players to improve their skill/technique?

 

I'm honestly interested in how you see this arrangement work in practice.

 

I would assume it's not all that different than how things are worked out regarding the hitting, pitching, bench, bullpen, and whatever other coaching titles there are.  I do think you still need a point man, but I think the skill set for that person has changed a lot.

 

Not unlike the change we've seen in FOs by the way.  The idea that every FO in baseball would be packed with Stanford stat nerds and not old Terry Ryan-type scouts would've been foreign to baseball even 10-15 years ago.

 

I think the manager position meets the same fate eventually.

[USAFChief]

I will take the manager job. You can pay me 150k and I can promise to be +/- 3 wins from anyone else you hire.

 

I'll also stay true to the time honored traditions of sitting around in my pajamas all day, I know how to use a rotary phone, and I will promise to use snazzy analytics terms while also saying things like "fundamentals", "that's how we played back in my day", and "eye for an eye" if that makes you old-timers feel warm and fuzzy.

 

Oh, and if I don't already have the job, I promise anyone related to Nick Punto will never make our team.

You keep saying this, but have never explained why MLB is the only team situation in the world where leadership and management has no effect on performance.

 

Simply writing out the lineups every day and making pitching changes has an enormous impact. How could it not?

 

And that ignores all the intangible stuff, which is almost certainly even more important. Keeping 25 people focused and working, over 6 months, is not something that just happens. Details matter, particularly when we're talking about the very best performers at a given task.

 

And for my money, Molitor appears bad at all of that.

 

He's operating at a talent deficit, but that's not an excuse for much of the poor execution, lack of fundamentals, and overall malaise we've seen way too much of.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You keep saying this, but have never explained why MLB is the only team situation in the world where leadership and management has no effect on performance.

 

Well, I also consider NHL coaches in the same boat. 

 

Sports are becoming more and more about data and talent.  If you have the best data and some of the best talent - you'll win.  Pretty much regardless of your manager.  If you don't, you won't.  And since baseball is so driven by individual player matchups (unlike the NFL, NBA, and NHL) it reduces the impact of coaching in the moment.

 

Comparing that to your average office building seems to have any number of major flaws.

Edited June 29, 2018 by TheLeviathan