Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Sell, Sell, Sell?

[Doctor Wu]

 

  On 6/27/2018 at 5:10 PM, Rosterman said:

At some point, the Twins need to move pieces for anything pissible so they can advance pieces that may reflect the future.

Okay, I realize that was a typo in that sentence ... but somehow that strikes me as a very appropriate comment! Yes, we should unload any deadwood we can and hope if creates opportunities for someone new that might potentially have a positive impact on this team.

[Steve Penz]

Unless something very crazy good happens, they must be sellers.  This is not because we have players who will bring back amazing prospects.  This is because we need to be sure the correct people are playing.  Morrison, Grossman, Dozier, Adrianza, Duke, Lynn and Rogers will not be on our team next year.  Unless absolutely necessary, they should not play in the latter part of the season.  Give reps to younger people if you can.  If some of the above can be moved for even minimal return, it makes that easier to do.  

[clone52]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 2:17 AM, Mr. Brooks said:

I don't think Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff is even a starting point for Realmuto, let alone enough.

 

It would get it in a heartbeat I think.  Does position player who only has 2 more years of control get more than 3 Top 100 prospects?   I could defintely be wrong.

[Brandon]

  On 6/27/2018 at 11:02 PM, mlhouse said:

Sorry, but if you cannot see that this team isn't any good and that their minor league system isn't any good, then I don't think you have much of an opinion.

Lets look at facts the way they really are rather than the way you want them to be.

Everyone gets an opinion.

 

Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...

[mlhouse]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 5:33 PM, Brandon said:

Everyone gets an opinion.

Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...

 

What are you even talking about??????    THE FIRST SIGN?   You must be joking.  Except for two fluke seasons, this team has sucked big time for almost a decade.   In the previous 7 seasons this team has lost 92 or more games 5 times.  We are playing at a 90 loss level this season. 

 

And, as I have pointed out, the entire roster sucks.  We don't even have players that have any value to "Sell, sell, sell".   And with all of this flailing, if you look at our farm system, the pantry is virtually bare.   We are calling up guys like Bobby Wilson and Taylor Motter (combined .118 batting average).  

 

WHen you go on a streak and lose 99, 96, 96, 92, Fluke, 103, fluke, and 90+ pace the first signs should have been 5 years ago.  And, the as I have pointed out, one of the real problems with this situation is that with all of that losing this team dradted at the top of each round in the draft.  

 

Unfortunately, the real prescription is more losing. 

 

Get Nick Gordon up to the big leagues.  Let him play some SS and 2B at the MLB level and develop.  Get LeMonte Ward up and see if he can bring his professional hitting approach to the big league level and perhaps we will have a true leadoff guy with a bit of pop.  Get Willians Astudillo up.  I don't know if he can catch, but at least he is not an embarrasement at the plate.  Give him a chance.

 

I would even argue that they really need ot look at Brent Rooker and I would strongly consider Luis Arraez all the way from A+ who started slow coming back from a knee injury (.132 in April, .241 in May, and .442 in June) but now is pounding the ball like he did in previous years.

 

Instead of sending Romero down, give him the ball and let him pitch at the MLB level and work on those things he needs to work on.   Stephen Gonslaves should be up with the team too.  Instead of signing a 38 year old Matt Belisle, give John Curtiss a shot. If he is worse than Belisle's 12.60 ERA then we have a good understanding going forward he really isn't going to be a long term contributor to this team, jsut like how 38 (Belisle), 35 (Duke) and 41 year old(Rodney) pitchers are also not going to be long term contributors.  Instead of these guys, get Luke Bard a last shot and let Gaberiel Moya get some experience in the set up role.  

 

If these guys fail, they fail.  Big deal.  The Belisles and Wilsons are failing too.  Losing and failure are information to guide the team forward.  If Bard isn't good enough, then you know and can plan going forward with that information.

 

But anyone who wants to go see this team play when JJ Berrios is not pitching must like punishment.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2018 by mlhouse

[Brandon]

  On 6/28/2018 at 6:23 PM, mlhouse said:

What are you even talking about?????? THE FIRST SIGN? You must be joking. Except for two fluke seasons, this team has sucked big time for almost a decade. In the previous 7 seasons this team has lost 92 or more games 5 times. We are playing at a 90 loss level this season.

 

And, as I have pointed out, the entire roster sucks. We don't even have players that have any value to "Sell, sell, sell". And with all of this flailing, if you look at our farm system, the pantry is virtually bare. We are calling up guys like Bobby Wilson and Taylor Motter (combined .118 batting average).

 

WHen you go on a streak and lose 99, 96, 96, 92, Fluke, 103, fluke, and 90+ pace the first signs should have been 5 years ago. And, the as I have pointed out, one of the real problems with this situation is that with all of that losing this team dradted at the top of each round in ...

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

 

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 6:36 PM, Brandon said:

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

 

 

that last sentence is very unfair.....I'd say that the FO needs to be realistic at this point, and get what they can for guys that won't be here next year or the year after. It's not about not trying, it's about being realistic. Businesses don't run on hope.

[mlhouse]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 6:36 PM, Brandon said:

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

 

There isn't anything that can be done with this team to make it competitive unless you think last seasons fluke meant we were competitive.  

 

And, as I at least alluded to, if our pitching is slightly better than league average, it is because we have stocked it full of 35+ year old relievers who after thsi season probably will not be available.   I get that we can keep up the mediocrity by stocking it back up with 35+ year old arms to limp through another season.  But, this gets us no where.  This team is not going to "FREE AGENT" itself to success.

The same holds for the .190 hitting DH who was just that kind of signing to begin with and finding a catcher that can actually hit.  

 

Following YOUR ideas (and the FO's too) is what is really quitting.  Just plugging mediocrity after mediocrity in the lineup and hope your fans don't notice.  The NON QUITTING option is to get the prospects up in place of these short term veterans.  Take the lumps now.  Find out who can play and who cannot.  Keep the guys who can and fill in the holes.  Maybe Buxton and Sano are guys who can.  SO get them back up and if Sano still demonstrates he doesn't care, move on.

 

It worked in 1982 and this is the approach this team needs to take now.  

[wsnydes]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 6:36 PM, Brandon said:

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

I appreciate the optimism, but in order to turn things around for this season they've got to play as well collectively as they have played poorly collectively thus far.  Sano isn't coming back up anytime soon.  Buxton isn't hitting AAA pitching.  Dozier, Morrison and Kepler have been ice cold.  We still don't know what we're going to see from Mauer the rest of the season.  All of those things will need to turn a complete 180 in order to make this team a legitimate threat.  One or two of those guys might come around, but they need all of to do it.  And they'll need to do it at the same time, and then sustain it for the rest of the season.  I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I see that as pretty unlikely.  

 

Of course, all of that assumes that the pitching holds true and Rosario and Escobar continue their level of play.  That's a lot to ask.

Edited June 28, 2018 by wsnydes

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 7:34 PM, wsnydes said:

I appreciate the optimism, but in order to turn things around for this season they've got to play as well collectively as they have played poorly collectively.  Sano isn't coming back up anytime soon.  Buxton isn't hitting AAA pitching.  Dozier, Morrison and Kepler have been ice cold.  We still don't know what we're going to see from Mauer the rest of the season.  All of those things will need to turn a complete 180 in order to make this team a legitimate threat.  One or two of those guys might come around, but they need all of to do it.  And they'll need to do it at the same time, and then sustain it for the rest of the season.  I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I see that as pretty unlikely.  

 

Of course, all of that assumes that the pitching holds true and Rosario and Escobar continue their level of play.  That's a lot to ask.

 

And Cleveland has to play something like 5-7 games under the rest of the way.....Or the West Coast teams fighting for the WC need to all three collapse.

[caninatl04]

Two comments;

 

First, trading Joe Mauer does no preclude resigning him in the off-season.  Some teams would value a high OBP left handed bat.

 

Second, and this is consistent with the what-if-we're-selling-what-no-one-wants-to-buy crowd, what might be plausible returns (and from whom) for some of the names oft-mentioned above? 

 

Who are potential buyers?

[Mike Sixel]

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

 

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 6/28/2018 at 5:12 PM, clone52 said:

It would get it in a heartbeat I think. Does position player who only has 2 more years of control get more than 3 Top 100 prospects? I could defintely be wrong.

But they aren't all consensus top 100 prospects. All 3 get on some, don't make the cut on others. And they are all towards the bottom of the top 100 when they do.

Miami will want at least one top 30'ish prospect to start, then negotiate the remaining pieces from there.

I doubt there is any dialogue that doesn't include Royce Lewis.

Lucroy brought 2 top 50 prospects, with 1 less year of team control, I believe.

[Brandon]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 11:08 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

 

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

 

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?  are you wanting to gun for draft position?  is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?  (that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 11:28 PM, Brandon said:

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?  are you wanting to gun for draft position?  is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?  (that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

 

because getting something for Dozier, or Rodney or Escobar or any other FA is better than nothing, and you can get lucky. Or, they can be used as part of packages. 

 

I'm not trading anyone under control past 2019, and probably not anyone not a FA this year, but I'd listen on Reed (not sure who else is a FA after 19 other than Castro).

 

they don't have a competitive team, imo. 

 

Not tearing down when they could have was a mistake. Standing pat for a few extra moments of fun this summer doesn't help this team in 19 or beyond, and, imo, 18 is gone.

[wsnydes]

  On 6/28/2018 at 11:08 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

 

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

I'll take that for the guys that will be free agents after the season though. May as well get something for them.

[Monkeypaws]

If the Twins go full sell mode, I'll be looking forward to my $5 stub hub seats right behind home plate

Edited June 29, 2018 by Monkeypaws

[clone52]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 11:27 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

But they aren't all consensus top 100 prospects. All 3 get on some, don't make the cut on others. And they are all towards the bottom of the top 100 when they do.
Miami will want at least one top 30'ish prospect to start, then negotiate the remaining pieces from there.
I doubt there is any dialogue that doesn't include Royce Lewis.
Lucroy brought 2 top 50 prospects, with 1 less year of team control, I believe.

 

Good point, they'd probably demand Lewis.  Hell, I might even do that.

 

The LuCroy trade was basically for a package like Lewis, Gonsalves and and a slightly less prospecty Alex Kiriloff for him.  Texas also got the Brewers starting closer back in the deal, so its not quite an even comparison.

[clone52]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 11:28 PM, Brandon said:

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?  are you wanting to gun for draft position?  is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?  (that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

 

If you aren't going to resign Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Logan Morison or Fernando Rodney after the season, why wouldn't you sell?

[DocBauer]

Well, I sure don't think they are buyers at this point. Not unless you are hedging bets against Garver and a full return of Castro next season and acquire a catcher. Said move wouldn't recesitate the team this year, but could be part of 2019 and beyond.

 

If we just control angst for a moment born of frustration and disappointment, 2017 was not an aberration. Nor was this current team assembled poorly. Not everyone has a great year every season. Not every young player is a Trout, Harper, etc, who seems to blossom right out of the gate. With everything from talent, milb production, prospect lists, national write ups and rankings to what we have seen with out or own eyes as well as past performance, NOBODY would state that a team built on Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Castro, Morrison and a re-surgant Mauer with an improved pitching staff would play and produce this poorly. NOBODY!

 

But from ridiculous weather, games wiped out, injuries, suspension, weight gain, rehab, sudden regression, etc, this season has turned in to an almost laughable "what happens next" scenario.

 

I absolutely agree, after the next 20-30 days, the Twins should be sellers if things don't start to fall in place better and we don't see some sort of surge. And I'm not just talking overtaking Cleveland. I'm talking about good ball, winning ball, and finishing strong. And I agree that anyone not signed beyond this season is fair game for trade, with the exception of Escobar. But to suggest the team should be blown up is kind of ridiculous to me.

 

Not going to get overly long, or get in to a debate for each and every player, but there could be real arguments...if this team plays better going forward...to keep guys like Rodney and Duke. That doesn't mean you can't make or field calls to see what they would bring, however. Mauer isn't going anywhere, except to retirement if his latest episode can't be overcome. Reed has been an outstanding performer, but has been down lately. Bad season or over used? He has value in trade or to keep. What they need to do is move on from those they truly don't expect to be part of next season and get what they can.

 

This includes Morrison, most likely, and Dozier, though I hate to see him go, Grossman, Santana and Lynn. Stay away from dumpster diving to finish the season and just cut bait on Belisle.

 

The team doesn't have to be blown up. But win or lose, there are opportunities to do some selling and build toward 2019 by loading up the Rochester shuttle and take a real look at some guys.

[mikelink45]

 

  On 6/28/2018 at 6:23 PM, mlhouse said:

What are you even talking about??????    THE FIRST SIGN?   You must be joking.  Except for two fluke seasons, this team has sucked big time for almost a decade.   In the previous 7 seasons this team has lost 92 or more games 5 times.  We are playing at a 90 loss level this season. 

 

And, as I have pointed out, the entire roster sucks.  We don't even have players that have any value to "Sell, sell, sell".   And with all of this flailing, if you look at our farm system, the pantry is virtually bare.   We are calling up guys like Bobby Wilson and Taylor Motter (combined .118 batting average).  

 

WHen you go on a streak and lose 99, 96, 96, 92, Fluke, 103, fluke, and 90+ pace the first signs should have been 5 years ago.  And, the as I have pointed out, one of the real problems with this situation is that with all of that losing this team dradted at the top of each round in the draft.  

 

Unfortunately, the real prescription is more losing. 

 

Get Nick Gordon up to the big leagues.  Let him play some SS and 2B at the MLB level and develop.  Get LeMonte Ward up and see if he can bring his professional hitting approach to the big league level and perhaps we will have a true leadoff guy with a bit of pop.  Get Willians Astudillo up.  I don't know if he can catch, but at least he is not an embarrasement at the plate.  Give him a chance.

 

I would even argue that they really need ot look at Brent Rooker and I would strongly consider Luis Arraez all the way from A+ who started slow coming back from a knee injury (.132 in April, .241 in May, and .442 in June) but now is pounding the ball like he did in previous years.

 

Instead of sending Romero down, give him the ball and let him pitch at the MLB level and work on those things he needs to work on.   Stephen Gonslaves should be up with the team too.  Instead of signing a 38 year old Matt Belisle, give John Curtiss a shot. If he is worse than Belisle's 12.60 ERA then we have a good understanding going forward he really isn't going to be a long term contributor to this team, jsut like how 38 (Belisle), 35 (Duke) and 41 year old(Rodney) pitchers are also not going to be long term contributors.  Instead of these guys, get Luke Bard a last shot and let Gaberiel Moya get some experience in the set up role.  

 

If these guys fail, they fail.  Big deal.  The Belisles and Wilsons are failing too.  Losing and failure are information to guide the team forward.  If Bard isn't good enough, then you know and can plan going forward with that information.

 

But anyone who wants to go see this team play when JJ Berrios is not pitching must like punishment.

I would hit like twice if it was possible.  I had just posted in the Twins minor league summary that Berrios is the only one I look forward to.  We just played 31 innings against the White Sox - a terrible team and celebrate eking out a 13 inning game that required a former Twin to walk in the last run.

[the_brute_squad]

This team is in a free-fall and no parachute! The lead off hitter has no speed and is barely hitting over .250. Our (current) power hitter (Dozier) strikes out every there's a man on base. Robbie Grossman would hit 9th on every other teams lineup but he's a middle of the order hitter here. Our promising outfield is 1/3 with one in the minors and the other batting .220. Sano won't be here until August and he'll do fine against the minor league call ups but flail at the rest.

Sell Dozier, Rodney, Belisle (we need a new bucket for balls), Grossman (new bat boy would be fair trade), Lynn, Odorizzi, and anything else that might be deemed a small asset.

The extra hour and a half drive to Cedar Rapids to watch the future might be worth it. I mean, if I'm going to watch a minor league team, I might as well pay minor league prices.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

  On 6/30/2018 at 3:15 AM, the_brute_squad said:

This team is in a free-fall and no parachute! The lead off hitter has no speed and is barely hitting over .250. Our (current) power hitter (Dozier) strikes out every there's a man on base. Robbie Grossman would hit 9th on every other teams lineup but he's a middle of the order hitter here. Our promising outfield is 1/3 with one in the minors and the other batting .220. Sano won't be here until August and he'll do fine against the minor league call ups but flail at the rest.

Sell Dozier, Rodney, Belisle (we need a new bucket for balls), Grossman (new bat boy would be fair trade), Lynn, Odorizzi, and anything else that might be deemed a small asset.

The extra hour and a half drive to Cedar Rapids to watch the future might be worth it. I mean, if I'm going to watch a minor league team, I might as well pay minor league prices.

I’d be shocked if Sano played in the bigs again in ‘18. Rebuild is in session and with Buxton and Sano that means some serious developmental work.

[Monkeypaws]

Ship off the sad sacks: at least you open up roster spots for prospects, if only we would give 'em a chance.

 

Try to keep the keepers. I'll leave it up to you to decide who.

[Nine of twelve]

When a team reaches the point where advancing to the postseason is highly unlikely selling should take place. However, that doesn't mean getting rid of anyone for whom you can get an offer. It means improving your team's position to have success as soon as possible. In the case of the Twins it means improving our position to have success in 2019. We will have a rehabilitated and improved Sano. We will have a rehabilitated and improved Buxton. We will have a full season of Polanco. We will have several young pitchers, both starters and relievers, who have been improving in the high minors. We should not jettison anyone who is likely to make a significant contribution next season. Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, Duke, maybe Mauer should be the ones to look at trading. Almost nobody under the age of 27 should be on the list.

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 7/5/2018 at 3:28 AM, Sconnie said:

I’d be shocked if Sano played in the bigs again in ‘18. Rebuild is in session and with Buxton and Sano that means some serious developmental work.

Sano will at least return in September when the minor league season is over, assuming he is healthy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  On 7/5/2018 at 11:32 AM, Nine of twelve said:

 Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, Duke, maybe Mauer should be the ones to look at trading. Almost nobody under the age of 27 should be on the list.

 

You might be surprised how many players on this roster are over 27.  I agree with that thinking though.

[yarnivek1972]

To say 2017 was not an abberation is correct. The Twins were definitely the 6th best team in the American League. The problem is that at least 4 of the 5 better teams last year were light years better, and still are. Also, the other 9 teams in the American League last year were very bad.

 

So, depending on your point of view, the Twins were either the best of the worst or the worst of the best. Either way, it was not a team that was going to make noise in October.

[The Wise One]

If you sell and get Eduardo Escobars, great.  If you are getting Enns and Pedro Hernandez type players there is no point in selling. Minimal scouting should be able to tell the difference in ceilings.

[The Wise One]

 

  On 7/5/2018 at 1:28 PM, yarnivek1972 said:

To say 2017 was not an abberation is correct. The Twins were definitely the 6th best team in the American League. The problem is that at least 4 of the 5 better teams last year were light years better, and still are. Also, the other 9 teams in the American League last year were very bad.

So, depending on your point of view, the Twins were either the best of the worst or the worst of the best. Either way, it was not a team that was going to make noise in October.

When they could get a reasonably higher ceiling player last year they sold. Management recognized the team's relative position for the playoffs.