Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Sell, Sell, Sell?

[Cody Christie]

Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond in 200 words or less (Some writers don’t like to stick to this limit). This will give readers an opportunity to see multiple points of view and then add their own point of view in the comments section.

 

July is only days away. This means the non-waiver trade deadline will quickly be approaching. It’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Unfortunately (or fortunately), the American League Central has been full of poor play this season. The Indians, Twins and Tigers are separated by less than 10 games and there is plenty of baseball left to be played so….

 

This week’s roundtable discussion question is: “With a little over a month until the trade deadline, should the Twins be buyers or sellers?”John Bonnes

Neither. They ARE neither. Because in order to be a buyer or a seller, there needs to be a marketplace. There isn’t.

 

You’re anxious to turn the page on this season. I get it. Believe me, as someone who follows the team obsessively, runs a Twins web site and talks weekly on a Twins podcast, it’s been a frustrating three months. But declaring the season is over provides no practical value. It just makes us feel a little less personally invested in the year.

 

Maybe, in three weeks, when the All-Star break is over, a marketplace will exist, and the Twins will need to choose. If their struggles continue, they’ll be sellers. But even then, don’t expect a cornucopia of prospects to be coming their way. They don’t have any of the premier veterans on the market, so they’re likely to get premier prospects in return.

 

Until then, like it or not, this year is a competitive window for this franchise. I’d encourage you to personally invest another month in this team. I assure you that the management, the coaches and the players certainly are.

 

Seth Stohs

In my opinion, the Twins need to make all moves that they think will put them into contention by about July 20th. At that point, you evaluate where they are compared to Cleveland.

 

If they had to make that decision today, and fortunately they don't, they would be sellers. The odds indicate that they will be sellers at the deadline at which point a lot of guys could be on the market.

 

Nick Nelson

At this rate, they sure look like sellers, although that could potentially change within the next few weeks. The trouble is that the Twins don't have much at this time in terms of appealing assets to move, so it's hard to envision any major haul coming back even if they're willing to unload anyone nonessential to the big picture. Brian Dozier's sluggish first half has torpedoed his trade value. Lance Lynn will have takers but won't net a ton. Fernando Rodney's been great, but non-elite relievers don't bring back top prospects (Matt Capps notwithstanding).

 

Eduardo Escobar is perhaps the most intriguing candidate, as an All Star candidate on the last year of his deal, but Minnesota is probably best served holding onto him and extending a qualifying offer after the season.

 

Cody Christie

The AL Central might be the weakest division in baseball so it’s hard to call the Twins out of the race. That being said, Cleveland seems to have started to figure it out after a slow start. Minnesota hasn’t been able run off a long streak of winning baseball. Cleveland should easily win the division but they have flaws and this could make them vulnerable.

 

If the front office is making the decision today, the club is sellers and the team has a lot of pieces that could be dealt. With many players on one-year deals, Minnesota could reset the roster and restock the farm system for the next decade.

 

There were high hopes at the beginning of the season, so it’s depressing to think the team could be sellers. Flashback to last year, the Twins were in selling mode as the deadline approached. Then the team found a nice groove and ended up in the playoffs.

 

Anything is possible but it seems like it’s time to sell.

 

Ted Schwerzler

I don't think it's fair to answer this question with so much time yet before the trade deadline. Realistically Falvey and Levine set the roster up for success this offseason, and it has underperformed as a whole. With the games remaining prior to the deadline, the Twins need to show some consistent life.

 

The Indians have real warts, and I don't believe they're going to run away with anything. Given the amount of one year deals, the Twins are well positioned to act either way. They can let their play in the weeks ahead dictate how they should attack the deadline.

 

Tom Froemming

Right now, you'd have to say sellers. The depressing part is most of their obvious pieces to move are having down years.

 

You can't expect guys like Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn or Zach Duke to fetch much of a return right now. The same can be said for Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney, who both have a team option for 2019.

 

Who does that leave?

 

Taking emotion out of it, Eduardo Escobar could be a great sell high option, but in my heart I want the team to extend him with a 15-year deal. OK, that's an exaggeration, but from a fan's perspective I'd be really bummed if they sent him packing.

 

With those being the options, I'm not expecting the front office to make a move one way or another until the week of the trade deadline.

 

Jeremy Nygaard

I can't imagine the Twins buying at the deadline. What would be the point?

 

If they decide not to sell, they should stand pat... but not buy.

 

They should sell. Anyone scheduled to be a free agent should be on the block. Brian Dozier is playing his way out of getting a qualifying offer, so prospect would be better than nothing. Lance Lynn, in my opinion, has to be traded, especially if he continues to work back to his old self. Team needs a lefty reliever? Zach Duke has to be available. I would pay - not personally, but as the Twins - the rest of Joe Mauer's salary to give him a chance to win a title this year (and in return for that money, ask for a decent prospect).

 

And moving any of those guys only give opportunities to other prospects. Moving Dozier allows at-bats for Nick Gordon. Trading Lynn opens a rotation spot for either of Mejia or Gonsalves. Exit Duke, enter Moya. Or Jay. Mauer's at-bats could be absorbed by many players.

 

I'd also look at moving Morrison, Rodney and potentially Santana. In addition to those three with options, the team has only three other players (Castro, Reed, Pineda) under contract for next year. Moving guys now would be more of a reload and less of a rebuild; the nucleus of the team would remain under control.

 

Steve Lein

The Cleveland Indians are finally starting to pull away in the division, a wild card is even further off, and the Twins haven’t sniffed a .500 record in over a month. Unless a drastic turnaround happens, like immediately, they should be sellers.

 

Unfortunately, the reason they’re in this position now is a direct result of the performances from some of those whom they should sell. Lance Lynn has rebounded nicely and could fetch something decent for a rental but the other guys with only one year on their deals, like Brian Dozier and Logan Morrison, have fallen flat and Ervin Santana has yet to throw a pitch this season. Fernando Rodney might net enough where selling him makes sense too.

 

If you’re hoping to get anything beyond a B-level prospect though, that’s going to mean selling someone like Eddie Rosario or Eduardo Escobar as part of something bigger. But they’re really the only position players who have earned their money this season and are the types I’d want to keep around.

So, while I think they should sell all those rental type pieces to clear the roster space if anything, I’m not holding my breath on any stellar returns.

 

If you missed any of the previous roundtable discussions, here are the links:

Fixing the Offense

Romero’s Rotation Spot

Top Prospect Timelines

Minnesota’s All-Star Selection

Extension Candidates

 

Click here to view the article

[SF Twins Fan]

The Twins need to be sellers unless by the deadline they're within 4 or 5 games and actually playing good baseball. They need to hope Dozier starts to heat up so he has trade value at the deadline.

[wsnydes]

By my accounting, all they need is two catchers, a DH, a 2B, a RF, a CF, two bench players, a manager and Cleveland to be contracted.  I don't know what all of this sell talk is, they're clearly right there!

[T_J]

They have shown zero consistency this season. They're 7 games under .500 and 7.5 back. They should've been buyers two weeks ago but standing pat has forced them to be sellers. They're constantly playing to the level of their competition and this season that's going to mean doom for them since the central is terrible. 

 

 

[Rosterman]

In order to sell, you have to have something someone wants to buy.

 

At some point, the Twins need to move pieces for anything pissible so they can advance pieces that may reflect the future.

 

Dozier, for one. If he moves on to another team, if they don't offer him an extended contract, the Twins could explore bringing him back. But right now, the Twins need to elt Dozier go elsewhere so they can play someone else in the position and evaluate the need for next season.

 

Eduardo Escobar. Could be a keep at the right price. 2-3 years? A valuable guy to have as a bench replacement. He does better playing everyday, notably at one position, than occasional play. At what point does he become too expensive to keep around? That is the question. Not sure if anyone would blow-you-out-of-the-market with a pristine trade deal.

 

Joe Mauer. Either he is going to retire at season's end. Or the Twins will have to make a decision. I doubt he would accept a trade. but you never ever know

 

Do you entertain offers on any of the Big Three in the outfield? Eddie Rosario is probably the most valuable guy you have on the team. According to numerous posts, we all marvel at the way the guy's bat makes contact with the ball and wonder how it is sustainable in the longrun. And his fielding prowess is griped about constantly. Do you trade him and hope there are dark horse candidates for replacement coming soon (Wade, Granite, Cave).

 

When Buxton comes back, is Grossman of any value, as we can easily replace him with any of Granite, Cave, LaMarre. 

 

Speaking of Buxton, him or Kepler have short-term value in trade to a team, or long-term value in an easrly contract extension?

 

I see Sano spending the remainder of the season in the minors and if he dominates, will get a September call and the Twins will evaluate him as a first baseman or dream of him as a lifetime designated hitter. Or, he may be the next Oswaldo Arcia.

 

In the pitching department, Lance Lynn is marketable, for a prospect. Since he is a one-year rental and seems to be a one-year rental, better to let him go and then come abck with a contract offer (if the trading team doesn't extend). Kyle Gibson COULD be your msot valuable trading chip from the rotation with one year of (high) arbitration value remaining. Ervin Santana, if an when he returns, will have to showcase value, but probably would get a waiver claim and low-level minor league prospect in trade as August rolls by and a contending team MIGHT need a veteran ar,

 

Fernando Rodney can be snatched if a closer goes on the brink for ahyone. You take a deal and hope you get a Wilson Ramos value back. You might say you deserve it.

 

The Twins could dangle many arms: Rogers, Duffey, Reed, Duke, even Pressly. Basically their overworked bullpen will probably just get more overworked and damaged as July rolls to an end. You look that there has to be replacements in the minors for the whole group. SOme will have rocky moments. But even the "starters" like Slegers and Mejia could slip into long-relief roles. ANy of the above guys could be easily replaced next season.

 

Which brings to mind the BIG question! If you are not in competition to take the division (the wild card is out of the question)...you look to move anyone you WILL NOT PROTECT on the 40-man roster next off-season, and ANYONE who is destined NOT to be a part of the 35-man roster fer sure come spring training 2019 end. You use the guys who are more than likely going to walk for possible depth pieces in the organization. You stay away from other 41st players on teams for the moment, you got enough of those yourself. You say one helluva a lot of money so you can BUY big in the offseason, actually spend on solid players, rather than bargain deals.

 

Speaking of bargain deals, Logan Morrison could also be moved. Hey, return Kennys Vargas to the 25-man for season's end? Or Chris Carter. Not that either would be a part of long-term plans with the way they are hitting in the minors. But can they produce equal numbers that Mirrison has pounded for half-the-season?

 

But just be aware that the Twins will get little and possibly nothing in return, except 2018 salary relief, and the chance to advance the careers of some of their prospects. 

o

[Fritzderkat]

I moved here in '01 and started following the Twins because I like baseball. On the whole, it has been a disappointing 17 years. That's a long time to follow mediocrity, and now this season, like so many before, as we reach the half-way point I am becoming increasing disinterested in even watching or listening. Last night I happened to pick the game up in the second inning, watched until the start of the sixth and losing interest, turned it off in time to miss the fold.

If I were running the club, I'd be sorely tempted to dump everyone except Rosario, Escobar and Berrios.

.

 

[Tomj14]

Sadly without Buxton and Sano playing up to the level everybody hoped, this team is kind of screwed.

Nobody that will return a good to great prospect and nobody really ready in the minors. (I like Gordon and Wade but are they  really guys that turn a team around, or more of a young guy replacement type for a while to supplement stars?)

 

[Blackjack]

I want to echo the last two posts, keep Rosario, Berrios, Kepler, dump a lot of the rest of the to make room for the younger players, let them play in August and September, see what you have. If Gordon isn't up August 1st....

 

Escobar, I'd try to sign before the deadline, if he won't sign trade him.

 

Mauer has earned the right to respect his wishes, show some class and ask him what he wants, be traded to a contender or play out his career with the Twins.  

[jimbo92107]

Good comment by Rosterman. I'm usually all in favor of bringing up the kids and moving out the veteran place holders, especially in a situation where it looks like the team isn't going to get significantly better with the guys we have. The Twins have several guys in the minors that could become part of their dominant wave. Gonsalves and Mejia should come up and replace Lynn and Odorizzi. Slegers should replace Belisle. Moya should replace Duke. I would also trade Dozier and bring up Gordon, ready or not, he can learn on the job. 

 

I would also move Morrison and replace him with either Vargas or Rooker. Move Grossman and replace him with Wade. 

 

I'm not actually too concerned what you'd get for these place holders. More important to get the new kids a half season of seasoning. 

[Shaitan]

A single hot streak in the next 3 weeks could turn things around.

 

It sure doesn't look like it will happen, but for me optimism and baseball go hand-in-hand.

[Monkeypaws]

Escobar - give him a new contract that pays him his worth - he is the 3rd baseman for now and the foreseeable future.

 

Dozier - he's playing his way out of the golden payday and into a cheap extension, if the Twins want to keep him around.

 

Mauer - can't imagine he'd fetch much in trade. Not looking at much money to keep him around.

 

Morrison - redundant, and with little value.

 

Rosario - the one who gets the big extension.

 

Odorizzi and Reed - the phone won't be ringing off the hook. Keep em.

 

Rodney - ironically, probably their best chip.

 

Dont see much opportunity here but to sell low or stand pat.

 

 

[Broker]

As far as watching the games I'm beginning to lose interest. I enjoy watching my team hit and score runs. The pitching and defense is there but the offense only shows up on occasion. I don't want to be pleasantly surprised when my team wins. I want to be a little surprised when they lose. If the Twins aren't winning after a few innings I know I'm in for 5 or 6 innings of misery at the plate.

[jtkoupal]

Let's not forget that July 31 is not the last day to trade players. They can still do it in August if need be. However, there is really no sign that the offense is going to step up anytime soon. They have no solution at catcher, center field is going to be an adventure at the dish with or without Buxton. Dozier will heat up, but Morrison is having an oddly down year for himself. Kepler needs to heat up too. Mauer, Rosario, and Escobar are the only reliable weapons in the Twins offense right now. Who know what we will get out of Polanco when he comes back, also. 

 

There is a possibility that the Twins could look in a lot better shape by this time tomorrow. Cleveland is facing Jack Flaherty in St. Louis while the Twins are facing a washed-up James Shields and Lucas Giolito the next two days. It won't matter if they continue to play to their competition, but it is hardly out of the question that the race will look better in 26 hours.

[Vanimal46]

Same vicious cycle every year. I hate it. Can't wait to acquire another org's #20 ranked prospect for our 2nd/3rd tier FAs that didn't help take this team into contention.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Vanimal46

[theBOMisthebomb]

A single hot streak in the next 3 weeks could turn things around.

 

It sure doesn't look like it will happen, but for me optimism and baseball go hand-in-hand.

That's the whole enchilada right there. I cannot endorse being a seller if the Twins still have a realistic 'shot' at catching the Cleveland baseball team. Someone will break out of these many slumps, get Buxton and/or Santana back, Dozier hot streak, etc. It might be difficult to believe after what has transpired in 2018... these Twins are a talented, young team on the rise and we should not throw in the towel in June. Let's wait it out and see what happens. The game will come back to the Twins and the breaks will start falling the Twins' way. Heck, summer has barely begun so I am staying optimistic. There are 31 game between now and July 31. I need to see at least 20 more before I start to lose faith and optimism. At least 20 games.

[Mike Sixel]

they don't have a "realistic" shot, they have a tiny, squint and you can almost see it, shot.

 

Nothing about this roster is realistic in terms of being a playoff team. They should sell or DFA:
 

Rodney

Lynn

Duke

Dozier

Escobar (or sign him, not just hold and do nothing)

Morrison

Grossman

 

I'd consider dealing

Reed

Odorizzi

 

Did I miss anyone not nailed down? 

 

I do NOT bring back

Mauer

Santana

Dozier

Morrison

Odiorizzi 

[Brandon]

The Twins are where they are because they lost 4 or 5 starting players for various reasons

 

1. Buxton to slump, headaches, slump, and broken toe. He should be back very soon

 

2. Polanco suspension and finger slam in door. Should be back soon too.

 

3. Castro out for season we could use a low cost veteran like texas C or Ramos. They shouldnt cost too much to get either.

 

4. Sano replaced by Escobar but Sano may be back.

 

5. Morrison is still hitting under .200. There are a few options out there if he cant start hitting soon. There were 2 potential DH released this year hanley Ramirez is one of them. He can go to AAA for a few weeks and he shows he can hit he should be better than what Morrison has been.

 

6. Mauer has been affected by concussions and is back. We will see if he can go back to hitting.

 

So a new C and DH with Polanco and Buxton comming back and hopefully Sano we might be able to make a run out of this season yet. The pitching is good enough.

 

And plus this is likely a buyers market so we dont have anything to gain by selling. We are not likely to get premium prospects if we do sell. "Might as well win the whole "F"ing thing."

[jkcarew]

 

they don't have a "realistic" shot, they have a tiny, squint and you can almost see it, shot.

 

Nothing about this roster is realistic in terms of being a playoff team. They should sell or DFA:
 

Rodney

Lynn

Duke

Dozier

Escobar (or sign him, not just hold and do nothing)

Morrison

Grossman

 

I'd consider dealing

Reed

Odorizzi

 

Did I miss anyone not nailed down? 

 

I do NOT bring back

Mauer

Santana

Dozier

Morrison

Odiorizzi 

I think this is pretty fair/objective.  I mean, you might bring Mauer back as a bench/depth player.  But the challenge there is that he doesn't provide any defensive flexibility, which is critical with the number of pitchers on the modern 25-man.  You might keep Dozier (price is looking lower every day)...say, in the unlikely event, for instance, that you used Gordon to obtain a real mlb catcher.  I guess you could trade Kepler or Rosario (in a sell high)...but it would have to be for a good or very good right-handed hitting major league outfielder.  Unlikely.  Buxton or Sano would be too much of a sell-low scenario to be worth it.

 

And the only reason I wait to sell closer to July 31 is if I think that gets me more leverage.

 

So, yeah.  This.

[mlhouse]

Sorry, but if you cannot see that this team isn't any good and that their minor league system isn't any good, then I don't think you have much of an opinion.  

Lets look at facts the way they really are rather than the way you want them to be.

 

1.  Our vaunted position prospects really were not as good as we thought they were.  Buxton and Sano are not even in the major leagues anymore.  Rosario is a good hitter (with limited OBP).  Kepler?  So, in the lineup we have perhaps 3 major league players under the age of 30:  Rosario, Escobar, and perhaps Kepler.  Mauer when healthy is an adequate MLB and Dozier when he isn't slumping.  So, in year 8 of our rebuild we have 3 positional players that we have developed.

 

2.   WHile I think our pitching has been adequate, the ONLY pitcher on our current 13 man pitching staff under the age of 27 is the star of the rotation, JJ Berrios.  Gibson is an adequate mid-rotation guy going forward, but what else do they have in the rotation?  They seem to be scared to have any young guys like Romero or Gonslaves up with the big league team because ?

 

3.  Same with their relief staff.   We have a core of players that are at the end of their careers:  Rodney, Belisle, Duke over the age of 35.   Niot a single reliever in the bullpen is under the age of 27, and those are the only two relievers (Hildenberger and Rogers) that were developed within the Twins minor league system.  ALl of these years and all of those draft picks spent on pitchers, we have older young players in the bullpen to show for it.

 

4.  Unfortunately, the only players that have any real trade value on this team are Escobar, Rosario, Berrio,   I can see trading Escobar, trading high but then he will be a free agent at the end of the year so that mitigates his value.  If you traded Rosario or Berrios that would really be surrendering.  Maybe Trevor HIldenberger has some trade value???   But again, this isn't trading Cliff Lee for a boatload of high end prospects, this is trading for a guy deep in some teams minor leagues that is a fringe prospect.

 

5.  AS I have posted in another thread, if you look into the Twins minor league system it only gets uglier.  Outside of Gordon, the AAA team either has pitchers the FO has no desire to call up or garbage.  Even in AA there isn't much talent, and the talent deeper in the minors is very young although I think the time to bring them up is fast approaching.  Do you want to lose games with Taylor MOoter and Bobby Wilson playing or try Nick Gordon, Luis Arraez and develop them as major league hitters as we lose.   

[Mike Sixel]

team keeps getting older, while the rest of the league gets younger.....Matt Belisle....

[Danchat]

 

Same vicious cycle every year. I hate it. Can't wait to acquire another org's #20 ranked prospect for our 2nd/3rd tier FAs that didn't help take this team into contention.

It feels like it's been this way for the past 4-6 years for this team. They're sellers at the deadline but they don't have any good pieces to sell - again! I really wish this franchise would have hit the reset button a la Houston/several others 3-5 years back. We kept holding onto guys like Perkins, Dozier,  Willingham, Santana because "we can't trade the only good players on the team!"

[Thrylos]

They really have to see what they got in the minors.  That madness of holding on to both good but not great players and prospects, until they disappear is getting them into a real problem.

 

They need to clear the roster from players without options at or past their primes (Mauer, Dozier, Morrison, Wilson, Lynn, Santana, Rodney, Duke, Belisle), take an ax at mediocrity (Grossman, Adrianza,) extend the Eddies, and start rotating players with options in the rest of the positions to see what they have.

 

And no matter what resist the dive in the dumpster.

[jkcarew]

 

The Twins are where they are because they lost 4 or 5 starting players for various reasons

1. Buxton to slump, headaches, slump, and broken toe. He should be back very soon

2. Polanco suspension and finger slam in door. Should be back soon too.

3. Castro out for season we could use a low cost veteran like texas C or Ramos. They shouldnt cost too much to get either.

4. Sano replaced by Escobar but Sano may be back.

5. Morrison is still hitting under .200. There are a few options out there if he cant start hitting soon. There were 2 potential DH released this year hanley Ramirez is one of them. He can go to AAA for a few weeks and he shows he can hit he should be better than what Morrison has been.

6. Mauer has been affected by concussions and is back. We will see if he can go back to hitting.

I don't share your optimism...

 

1. Buxton has been a completely lost from day 1.  And is currently completely lost at the AAA level.

2. Polanco will be replacing Adrianza  (847 OPS in June while the Twins have continued to sink)

3. Castro had been awful offensively from the beginning of the year.  The cost will not be 'low' for a Ramos rental.

4. Sano is not coming back any time soon.  That has been made pretty clear by where they sent him.

5. Hanley Ramiriz?  I think hoping for May Morrison to come back for July would be a better bet

6. Joe's been about the same player this year that he was in 2014, 2015, and 2016.  And he's 35 years old now.

 

It's really, really unlikely that anything in here (even we added a potential Dozier reawakening) would be enough to account for making up 8 games against Cleveland.  I guess, you never know unless you try, and all that.  But I wouldn't pass up on any opportunity to add even marginal value at areas of major league or organizational need...not to mention, to learn more about certain prospects by promoting them.

[clone52]

Seems like there are some dumb things being posted on here.

 

First off, if Castro weren't hurt, Polanco wasn't suspended and Polanco, Buxton and Sano played like their capable of, this roster has everything you'd want in a playoff team, so don't give me any bull**** that it doesn't.

 

Most likely, the Twins are going to be sellers.  Sure, maybe they go on a 3 week hot streak, but probably not.  Lets assume they are and discuss things.

 

Starters:

Odorizzi is staying.  Wouldn't be a hot market for him and you'll still get him relatively cheap next year in arbitration.

 

Berrios - No

 

Gibson - Will still be relatively cheap next year, although the way he's pitching, you might actually dangle him and see what you could get.  If someone offered you Alex Kiriloff for Gibson, you might do it.

 

Lynn - You absolutely trade him, not matter what you get.  This is a guy with a good history and an ERA of 3.27, K/9 of 9.0 and a K/BB of 3.92 in May/June, I bet you get something decent for him.  The Angels are trotting out John Lamb and Felix Pena for starts.  Red Sox could probably use a 5th starter.  if Yu Davish can't stay healthy, do the Cubs want him?  May/June Lance Lynn would be an upgrade for pretty much every playoff contender.  Minimal financial commitment, 2 very, very solid months coming back from surgery.  Can get him without giving up top prospects.  There is no way he doesn't get traded.  His May/June stats would make him #13 in ERA, #18 in K/9 and #14 in K/BB.  His June WHIP would #25.  Those numbers clearly make him a #2-#3 starter on average, and easily a #4 on a lot of playoff contenders.

 

If you do trade Lynn and Gibson, you've got plenty of options.  Santana, Slegers, Mejia, Enns and even give Gonsalves a shot, plus Pinedo could conceivably come back.

 

Relievers:

Duke:  trade for anything if you can get something that you like better at any level in minors.

Reed:  I think you keep him for the price.  

Rodney:  He's on fire.  Trade him if you get something nice.  With a team option, maybe you keep him.

Magill:  Surprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him.

Hildenberger:  Unsurprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him.

Pressly:  Pretty cheap, can be good, probably not a great market for him, but certainly would dangle him.

Rogers:  super cheap forever, reasonably good, keep him.

 

Position players are where it gets interesting.

Mauer:  Won't be traded, will be interesting to see if they want to resign him.  All of the sudden, first base doesn't seem like a guarenteed future home of Miguel Sano and if Morrison keeps hitting 0.188, you've got a gaping hole at 1B.

 

Dozier:  Are you going to sign Dozier long term?  Are you going to give Dozier a $17.4 qualifying offer?  If the answer is No to both, you trade him for whatever.  Sucks that he's slumping, but what else are you going to do?  Finish far back from the playoffs and let him walk?  I bet you could get a 17 year old who throws 97 and walks 2 hitters an inning for him.

 

Escobar:  You dangle him.  If you get wowed, go for it.  If not, look into a long term extension.  3 or 4 years at around $10-$13 per year.  If he balks at that, give him a qualifying offer.  Overpay to have him for a year or gain a draft pick.

 

Rosario/Kepler:  Keep no matter what.

Buxton/Sano:  Sure as hell don't sell low.

 

Castro is still around and Garver is serviceable.  However, even if they are sellers, there is one move I'd consider.  JT Realmuto:  At worst, you could get him for Gonsalves, Gordon and Kiriloff?  I think I would.  Seems like Gonsalves is no slam dunk.  You've got a lot of pitchers semi-near his level.  Would hate getting rid of Gordon, but Polanco/Adrianza wouldn't be a terrible middle infield duo and you could sign another one until Lewis is ready.  Rosario and Kepler seem like keeps and Buxton is a star if he turns it around, plus you have potential OF depth in the minors with Granite, Wade, Rooker, Badoo, Larnach and Keirsey.  All of those guys are just as close to the majors as Kiriloff and its likely that 1 or 2 of them turn into good major league players.

 

Conclusion:

If I were the Twins, here is what I'd do.

Trade Lance Lynn

Trade Zach Duke

Trade Fernando Rodney

Sign Escobar to a 3 or 4 year deal.

Trade Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff (or less if you can) for JT Realmuto.

 

Make those moves and I think you are still in contention in 2019 barring things going horribly for the offense this year.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Seems like there are some dumb things being posted on here.

 

First off, if Castro weren't hurt, Polanco wasn't suspended and Polanco, Buxton and Sano played like their capable of, this roster has everything you'd want in a playoff team, so don't give me any bull**** that it doesn't.

 

Most likely, the Twins are going to be sellers. Sure, maybe they go on a 3 week hot streak, but probably not. Lets assume they are and discuss things.

 

Starters:

Odorizzi is staying. Wouldn't be a hot market for him and you'll still get him relatively cheap next year in arbitration.

 

Berrios - No

 

Gibson - Will still be relatively cheap next year, although the way he's pitching, you might actually dangle him and see what you could get. If someone offered you Alex Kiriloff for Gibson, you might do it.

 

Lynn - You absolutely trade him, not matter what you get. This is a guy with a good history and an ERA of 3.27, K/9 of 9.0 and a K/BB of 3.92 in May/June, I bet you get something decent for him. The Angels are trotting out John Lamb and Felix Pena for starts. Red Sox could probably use a 5th starter. if Yu Davish can't stay healthy, do the Cubs want him? May/June Lance Lynn would be an upgrade for pretty much every playoff contender. Minimal financial commitment, 2 very, very solid months coming back from surgery. Can get him without giving up top prospects. There is no way he doesn't get traded. His May/June stats would make him #13 in ERA, #18 in K/9 and #14 in K/BB. His June WHIP would #25. Those numbers clearly make him a #2-#3 starter on average, and easily a #4 on a lot of playoff contenders.

 

If you do trade Lynn and Gibson, you've got plenty of options. Santana, Slegers, Mejia, Enns and even give Gonsalves a shot, plus Pinedo could conceivably come back.

 

Relievers:

Duke: trade for anything if you can get something that you like better at any level in minors.

Reed: I think you keep him for the price.

Rodney: He's on fire. Trade him if you get something nice. With a team option, maybe you keep him.

Magill: Surprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him.

Hildenberger: Unsurprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him.

Pressly: Pretty cheap, can be good, probably not a great market for him, but certainly would dangle him.

Rogers: super cheap forever, reasonably good, keep him.

 

Position players are where it gets interesting.

Mauer: Won't be traded, will be interesting to see if they want to resign him. All of the sudden, first base doesn't seem like a guarenteed future home of Miguel Sano and if Morrison keeps hitting 0.188, you've got a gaping hole at 1B.

 

Dozier: Are you going to sign Dozier long term? Are you going to give Dozier a $17.4 qualifying offer? If the answer is No to both, you trade him for whatever. Sucks that he's slumping, but what else are you going to do? Finish far back from the playoffs and let him walk? I bet you could get a 17 year old who throws 97 and walks 2 hitters an inning for him.

 

Escobar: You dangle him. If you get wowed, go for it. If not, look into a long term extension. 3 or 4 years at around $10-$13 per year. If he balks at that, give him a qualifying offer. Overpay to have him for a year or gain a draft pick.

 

Rosario/Kepler: Keep no matter what.

Buxton/Sano: Sure as hell don't sell low.

 

Castro is still around and Garver is serviceable. However, even if they are sellers, there is one move I'd consider. JT Realmuto: At worst, you could get him for Gonsalves, Gordon and Kiriloff? I think I would. Seems like Gonsalves is no slam dunk. You've got a lot of pitchers semi-near his level. Would hate getting rid of Gordon, but Polanco/Adrianza wouldn't be a terrible middle infield duo and you could sign another one until Lewis is ready. Rosario and Kepler seem like keeps and Buxton is a star if he turns it around, plus you have potential OF depth in the minors with Granite, Wade, Rooker, Badoo, Larnach and Keirsey. All of those guys are just as close to the majors as Kiriloff and its likely that 1 or 2 of them turn into good major league players.

 

Conclusion:

If I were the Twins, here is what I'd do.

Trade Lance Lynn

Trade Zach Duke

Trade Fernando Rodney

Sign Escobar to a 3 or 4 year deal.

Trade Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff (or less if you can) for JT Realmuto.

 

Make those moves and I think you are still in contention in 2019 barring things going horribly for the offense this year.

I don't think Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff is even a starting point for Realmuto, let alone enough.

[Mr. Brooks]

A loss tonight puts the Twins closer to the White Sox than the Indians.

Are they mathematically eliminated? No, but neither are the Royals. This isn't a contender. We have the 10th worst record in baseball. Being in a terrible division doesn't change that.

[jimmer]

After today, the Twins will be 34-42. We are 16-13 in the division.  18-29 against the rest.

[mikelink45]

The real question is - who wants any of these players?  Trades need two teams (at least).  What is the demand for these bombers?  Who among any contention teams needs what we have.  Take out the Eddies and we are a AAA team playing in the majors.  

Nice sentiment to give Mauer a shot at a world series, but what world series contenders want a 256 hitter at 1B who does not hit HRs and is still suffering concussion symptoms?  

 

I look at this as past time to move on without giving up.  Bring up more young players and give them playing time.  Lynn (and I am not convinced he has truly turned it around) and Morrison are not part of next years and the replacements certainly can't help meeting their standards.  Start alternating Dozier's replacement into the lineup.  

 

Our young stars with the exception of Rosario have taken a step backward, our veteran signings have helped us be mediocre.  Keep moving forward until we have the parts we want in the lineup.

[Doctor Wu]

 

In order to sell, you have to have something someone wants to buy.

 

Sadly, that pretty much sums up where we are at right now.

[Vanimal46]

Sadly, that pretty much sums up where we are at right now.

That's where we've been since 2012.