Article: Week in Review: Sinking Ship

[Nick Nelson]

A glimmering spark of hope, snuffed out forcefully by a demoralizing backslide: This recurring cycle has defined the 2018 season for the Twins, and last week epitomized it.

 

Following perhaps its best stretch of baseball all year – four wins in five games against a pair of top-flight teams – Minnesota followed with perhaps its worst, getting outscored 26-9 in three straight losses that further whittled the club's already slim hopes as Cleveland separates itself atop the division.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/18 through Sun, 6/24

***

Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 34-40)

Run Differential Last Week: -8 (Overall: -16)

Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (8.0 GB)

HIGHLIGHTS

 

The Twins rotation has mostly been a pleasant surprise this year, and delivered one of its strongest showings over the first half of last week against Boston. Taking on arguably the most dangerous lineup in baseball, Minnesota fought its way to pitching-fueled victories on Tuesday and Wednesday; Jose Berrios and Lance Lynn teamed up with the bullpen to silence all those potent bats as the Red Sox were held to three runs total.

 

Kyle Gibson followed with another fine effort on Thursday, but struggles from the offense and an implosion from the relief corps saddled him with a loss.

 

On Sunday, Berrios delivered his second masterful outing of the week, firing seven shutout innings against Texas with 12 strikeouts.

 

The trio of Berrios, Lynn and Gibson has combined to produce a 2.15 ERA across 13 total starts in June. They've been awesome. Unfortunately, they've been getting little help.

 

It's a feeling that Eddie Rosario knows all too well. He went 6-for-20 with three extra-base hits last week, driving in four runs on Saturday while the surrounding hitters failed to provide much aid in a loss.

 

On the relief front, Trevor Hildenberger continues to string together clean outings – four more last week, as he twirled 3 2/3 hitless innings. He hasn't allowed a run since May 18th and his ERA is down to 2.11 on the season. Fernando Rodney also came through with another spotless stretch, picking up his 16th and 17th saves while making three one-inning appearances and striking out the side in two of them.

 

LOWLIGHTS

 

At the end of May, I wrote about the all-around excellence of the Twins pitching staff through the first third of the season. In the bullpen, much praise was concentrated on Ryan Pressly, who'd been otherworldly to that point:

As good as Reed's been, the star of this unit has been Ryan Pressly, who is finally pulling it all together at age 29. Last year, he had an odd tendency to get knocked around despite dazzling stuff, premium velocity, and good control. This year, the stuff has gotten even better and hitters just can't handle it.

 

Pressly's swinging strike rate has jumped from 12.2% to 16.8%, which ranks 11th out of 180 qualified MLB relievers. He's been especially lethal in May, where that figure has jumped to 19%. He has given up one home run thus far, after giving up 10 in 2017.

Incidentally, the "odd tendency to get knocked around despite dazzling stuff" has suddenly reemerged. In nine appearances since that May 28th article was posted, Pressly has an 11.74 ERA with 12 hits and three home runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings.

 

As amazing as Pressly's numbers looked through two months, he now sits with a sub par 4.17 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, joining the many laggards who have dragged this team to the brink of irrelevance.

 

That group also includes:

 

* Logan Morrison, whose two-run homer on Saturday was one of only three hits in 15 at-bats last week. He's slashing .191/.293/.347 on the year and a look of perpetual dejection has become etched into his face, but unfortunately, the Twins have had little choice but to keep running Morrison out in the middle of the lineup.

 

* Brian Dozier, whose signature midseason surge just hasn't come to offset all the slumping. Granted, last week was better than most others for him, as it included three doubles, a home run and four walks, but he still batted just .238 while driving in one run. As Aaron Gleeman notes, we're past Dozier's usual slow-start territory:

 

 

* Robbie Grossman, who has failed to execute his most reliable skill – getting on base – and therefore is providing little value for the Twins. To his credit, Grossman did collect as many extra-base hits last week (3) as he had in the previous five, but that speaks to the general lack of thunder in his bat, and he also failed to draw any walks. The 28-year-old has put up a punchless .232/.313/.346 line for the Twins and, per FanGraphs, his WAR ranks 205th out of 209 MLB hitters with 200+ PA.

 

* Joe Mauer, who has resumed leadoff duties since returning to the lineup, but hasn't been able to find much of anything at the plate. Mauer went 3-for-18 (.167) in five games and is batting .195 since coming off the disabled list. Perhaps most perturbingly, he has drawn only one walk in 34 plate appearances after exhibiting such a keen eye in the early going.

 

* The catcher duo of Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson, which combined to produce five singles in 18 at-bats last week, and has primarily contributed to Minnesota's AL-worst .567 OPS at catcher. The position has become a total non-factor for this club and you've gotta think some kind of shakeup is imminent. Cameron Rupp has done nothing since joining Rochester (batting .154 with 1 HR and 20 K in 46 PA) but his teammate Willians Astudillo sure seems deserving of a shot – he has an .807 OPS for the Red Wings and is a .309 career hitter in the minors. I tend to think a more drastic move is warranted.

 

* Jake Odorizzi, whose absolute clunker on Saturday (1.2 IP, 6 ER) was the low point in a season that's been progressively unraveling. Odorizzi hasn't completed six innings in a start since May 14th - eight turns ago. He has a 5.66 ERA over his last 10 starts, in which the Twins have gone 3-7.

 

* Last and also least, there is newly acquired Matt Belisle, who has been outrageously bad since joining the Twins on a major-league deal after Cleveland cut him loose. The move, on its surface, was a bit mysterious since Minnesota had no real on-field need, but most understood that wasn't the real point.

 

In any case, he's already worn out his welcome by coughing up seven runs on nine hits over two innings on Thursday and Friday, turning losses into embarrassing home blowouts. Belisle has been tasked simply with getting outs in games that are already decided, and is showing he can't fulfill even that modest role, so any perceived leadership qualities are moot.

 

TRENDING STORYLINE

 

With Pressly, Belisle and Addison Reed all looking shaky, Paul Molitor finds himself in a bind when it comes to right-handed relief options. Rodney's usage is restricted in the closer role, and Hildenberger is already being ridden hard with four appearances in the last six days. Matt Magill, while solid, is tough to trust in high leverage.

 

So the manager was undoubtedly happy to see Alan Busenitz's face in the clubhouse on Sunday morning. The righty was recalled over the weekend, while Fernando Romero was demoted following another underwhelming start. We've remarked in this space several times about the sensational success Busenitz has experienced in Rochester, where he had a 1.27 ERA and 32-to-5 K/BB ratio in 28 frames.

 

As his team heads out for a nine-game road trip, Molitor will be equipped with a deep and very well rested relief corps, thanks to the day off after Berrios went deep on Sunday.

 

The Twins can run with a nine-man bullpen for a bit, but they'll need a fifth starter on Saturday, at which point they'll some interesting decisions.

 

Which reliever goes out to make room? Frankly, it seems ludicrous at this point to keep Belisle around at the expense of anyone else, but the Twins did just hand him a guaranteed chunk of change.

 

And which starter comes up? Aaron Slegers is a candidate – he continues to log quality innings for Rochester and will be roughly on schedule after starting this past Saturday. Zack Littell, who's been the only outsider to crack the Twins rotation (for a spot start in a double-header) since Phil Hughes was shipped out, is another possibility.

 

And we'll touch on one more in the next section.

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

 

After leading our rundown of the system's hottest bats in this section last week, Alex Kirilloff participated in the Midwest League All-Star Game on Tuesday, batting third for the West and going 1-for-4. Two days later he was promoted to High-A Ft. Myers.

 

Upon departing the Midwest League, Kirilloff ranked first in home runs (13), third in batting average (.333), and second in OPS (.999). This is a 20-year-old getting his first taste of full-season leagues after missing all of last year. Awfully impressive. More so when you account for his phenomenal start with the Miracle; Kirilloff has started 8-for-19 (.421) at the new level and drove in five runs in his second game. What a hitter.

 

Royce Lewis hasn't gotten the call to join Kirilloff yet, but did accompany him at the MWL All-Star Game, starting at short and batting leadoff. He went 1-for-2 and swiped a base. Lewis has been battling through patellar tendinitis, and if you're wondering what that means, our resident orthopaedic specialist Heezy has the scoop for you.

 

Meanwhile, in Triple-A... Adalberto Mejia. I know, I know (*extremely Obi Wan voice*) there's a name I've not heard in a long time. But on Thursday night, he fired seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts, allowing only three hits and one walk. The gem lowered his ERA to 2.91, including 1.38 over four June starts.

 

Mejia made 21 starts for the Twins last year and looked altogether impressive. He's been excellent at Triple-A, and has the makings of a long-term rotation cog. If Romero's absence is expected to be a lengthy one, then Mejia strikes me as the obvious choice to replace him.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

The Twins will spend all of next week in the Windy City, and could really use the winds of fortune blowing in their favor. Now eight games behind Cleveland in the AL Central, the Twins basically need to be taking every series in order to keep their hopes alive. That'll be an easier ask in the South Side than the North.

 

TUESDAY, 6/26: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

WEDNESDAY, 6/27: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Lucas Giolito

THURSDAY, 6/28: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP James Shields

FRIDAY, 6/29: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Tyler Chatwood

SATURDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ CUBS – ??? v. LHP Mike Montgomery

SUNDAY, 7/1: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Jon Lester

 

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 69 | MIN 6, BOS 2: Bats Get to Boston Bullpen
• Game 70 | MIN 4, BOS 1: For Grossman and Kepler, The Price Was Right
• Game 71 | BOS 9, MIN 2: There Go Those Shiny Pitching Stats
• Game 72 | TEX 8, MIN 1: Circling the Drain
• Game 73 | TEX 9, MIN 6: Odorizzi Lays an Egg
• Game 74 | MIN 2, TEX 0: La MaKKKKKKKKKKKKina

More on Twins Daily

• Jamie Cameron pondered the oddity that is Twins reliever Matt Magill
• Parker Hageman broke down Eduardo Escobar's evolution at the plate
• Ted Schwerzler wrote that Kyle Gibson's success is no mirage
• Rob Pannier pointed out that the St. Paul Saints have been tapping into the local college ranks for talent
• Andrew Thares argued that now that he's locked in, Lance Lynn was worth the wait

 

Click here to view the article

[D.C Twins]

Also  down of the farm:  Rortvedt is looking VERY good at a position we desperately need. That is where I have my irrational hope right now so don't burst my bubble

 

(I'm still concerned that there are residual issues with Mauer's latest setback which will eventually come to light. These things don't fully resolve in a couple of weeks. if you live in MN, you should really get out to see him ASAP for the rest of us. We were lucky to have him)

[ashbury]

Also  down of the farm:  Rortvedt is looking VERY good at a position we desperately need. That is where I have my irrational hope right now so don't burst my bubble

 

(I'm still concerned that there are residual issues with Mauer's latest setback which will eventually come to light. These things don't fully resolve in a couple of weeks. if you live in MN, you should really get out to see him ASAP for the rest of us. We were lucky to have him)

I love Ben like I love my own sons. In fact, as I may have mentioned, I adopted him.

 

Still, I believe he is far from ready yet, and 2020 is a very optimistic ETA for him, despite our crying need at catcher. Also, while his high-A stats are good, I'm going to be predictable and mention a .393 BABIP - if that's not everyone's cup of tea, so be it, but it's a reason I temper my enthusiasm for the moment at least. (If you want a little validation, I also didn't panic last year while his stats looked bad but were built on a BABIP ludicrously below .200.)

[TheLeviathan]

It's over.  Time to start rooting for trade value.

[Brandon Brooks]

I will go to bat for Mejia every time his name comes up in conversation. Struggled with efficiency last year, but still put up a win above replacement, looks great at Rochester this year, is a lefty, and is only 25. I think he has a future on the roster.

[Mike Sixel]

Matt Belisle. Wow

[David HK]

 

I will go to bat for Mejia every time his name comes up in conversation. Struggled with efficiency last year, but still put up a win above replacement, looks great at Rochester this year, is a lefty, and is only 25. I think he has a future on the roster.

I'd like to think that future is now.

 

And he can bring his pal Astudillo along with him.

Edited June 25, 2018 by David HK

[mikelink45]

It is fascinating to see how many players have been up and down with the Twins, but nothing sticks and Gordon is forgotten.  We bring in Belisle and Motter and that is the FO great strategy?  I never will figure out those advance metrics!

[Blackjack]

Nice review Nick!!! Thanks!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Speaking of players do not do much for us, I just saw that Ryan LaMarre was optioned back to AAA. Anybody know who’s coming up to take his place?

They may not announce until Tuesday, or at least after the Rochester game today. I suspect Buxton, but it could be Cave if they don't think Buxton is ready to go yet.

[wabene]

I'll vote for Mejia

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also  down of the farm:  Rortvedt is looking VERY good at a position we desperately need. That is where I have my irrational hope right now so don't burst my bubble

 

 

I love Ben like I love my own sons. In fact, as I may have mentioned, I adopted him.

 

Still, I believe he is far from ready yet, and 2020 is a very optimistic ETA for him, despite our crying need at catcher. Also, while his high-A stats are good, I'm going to be predictable and mention a .393 BABIP - if that's not everyone's cup of tea, so be it, but it's a reason I temper my enthusiasm for the moment at least. (If you want a little validation, I also didn't panic last year while his stats looked bad but were built on a BABIP ludicrously below .200.)

 

I think you burst his bubble.

Edited June 25, 2018 by spycake

[Vanimal46]

They may not announce until Tuesday, or at least after the Rochester game today. I suspect Buxton, but it could be Cave if they don't think Buxton is ready to go yet.

If Buxton is healthy I guess call him up. Can't say I'm excited that he's turned a corner at the plate. Probably going to be a lot of the same we saw earlier this season.

[ashbury]

I think you burst his bubble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V_hCqO6UQs

 

"Sorry."

[Blackjack]

 

If Buxton is healthy I guess call him up. Can't say I'm excited that he's turned a corner at the plate. Probably going to be a lot of the same we saw earlier this season.

 

With Buxton, it seems to be a confidence problem, if he can't hit AAA pitching, what is he going to do against major league pitching??  Flail away, lose more confidence, flail away some more. I'd leave him down at AAA until he can at least hit at that level. 

[Vanimal46]

With Buxton, it seems to be a confidence problem, if he can't hit AAA pitching, what is he going to do against major league pitching?? Flail away, lose more confidence, flail away some more. I'd leave him down at AAA until he can at least hit at that level.

I'm with you. But clearly the FO values his defense and presence in the MLB clubhouse. IMO he should stay down until he figures out his approach at the plate. However, they rushed him back before. Looks like they're going to do it again.

[yarnivek1972]

The Powers that Be just sent Petit down and replaced him with Motter (granted bringing in Belisle was part of that). Point being if they felt Petit was the better choice they presumably they would have found a way to make it work. Not saying they are right, just that Motter over Petit was a choice.

[Number3]

"Perhaps most perturbingly, he has drawn only one walk in 34 plate appearances after exhibiting such a keen eye in the early going."

 

Nick posting about Mauer. My guess is that opposing pitchers have been told to avoid walking Joe under penalty of demotion to T ball. Make him hit his way on and of all the players in MLB pitch to contact when Joe Mauer is at the plate.

[Puckett34]

Man, they could use a 7-0 or 6-1 week.     Unfortunately, probably not going to happen.    

 

The Twins seem to play up to or down on the level of their opponent.     So I'll predict that they'll go 1-2 or worse vs the White Sox, 2-1 or better vs the Brew Crew and Cubs.

 

Keep dangling that carrot.    This is how we baseball.

[bighat]

 

I will go to bat for Mejia every time his name comes up in conversation. Struggled with efficiency last year, but still put up a win above replacement, looks great at Rochester this year, is a lefty, and is only 25. I think he has a future on the roster.

 

Kinda baffled on how the Twins just kind of passed him over this year, Mejia hasn't even been mentioned too often. I find that odd considering he was with the team most of last year, and pitched well as a 24 year-old lefty. The Twins gave up a guy having an All-Star season (Nunez) to get him, seems only right they'd really see what they have with Mejia.

[bighat]

 

 

The Powers that Be just sent Petit down and replaced him with Motter (granted bringing in Belisle was part of that). Point being if they felt Petit was the better choice they presumably they would have found a way to make it work. Not saying they are right, just that Motter over Petit was a choice.

 

And I wonder why the Powers that Be thought Motter was better? Petit batted .308 in 26 at bats this year. Nobody expected him to be Dustin Pedrioa, he wasn't, but he seemed to at least be able to spot start with efficiency.

 

Motter's younger and can play OF. But Petit is a better ballplayer. Isn't that the most important thing in the end?

[yarnivek1972]

And I wonder why the Powers that Be thought Motter was better? Petit batted .308 in 26 at bats this year. Nobody expected him to be Dustin Pedrioa, he wasn't, but he seemed to at least be able to spot start with efficiency.

 

Motter's younger and can play OF. But Petit is a better ballplayer. Isn't that the most important thing in the end?

Usually. But some people get upset when the decisions by the FO get questioned.

[Vanimal46]

Kinda baffled on how the Twins just kind of passed him over this year, Mejia hasn't even been mentioned too often. I find that odd considering he was with the team most of last year, and pitched well as a 24 year-old lefty. The Twins gave up a guy having an All-Star season (Nunez) to get him, seems only right they'd really see what they have with Mejia.

In February he was penciled in as the #4 starter and it wasn't out of place. I like that they tried to aim higher with the acquisitions of Odorizzi and Lynn. Unfortunately Odorizzi is falling apart and it makes sense why he was traded for a low level SS prospect.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Matt Belisle. Wow

Kudos.

Seldom is so much said in so few words.

[ashbury]

Kudos.

Seldom is so much said in so few words.

tl;dnr

[Mr. Brooks]

Kinda baffled on how the Twins just kind of passed him over this year, Mejia hasn't even been mentioned too often. I find that odd considering he was with the team most of last year, and pitched well as a 24 year-old lefty. The Twins gave up a guy having an All-Star season (Nunez) to get him, seems only right they'd really see what they have with Mejia.

I agree, I thought he'd get a chance to start the season.

But, it was the previous regime that traded for him, so I doubt that investment would have much impact on this regime's plans for him.

[gman]

When the year started, I expected to keep an eye certain players in the minors. I just wasn't expecting them to be named Sano, Buxton and Palanco.

Currently there are 10 teams in the American league with better records than the Twins. We could finish better than a couple of them, but passing 6 teams to get into a wild card race will be difficult. Catching Cleveland doesn't look like a too likely option either.

Shopping players for the rest of the season seems the most likely course of action. Unfortunately our record is bad and any tradeable players are causing the win/loss results. Seen too much of this the last 8 years.

They could hold second half auditions for the 2019 roster, but I just as soon they not bring up players until they are truly ready, I've also seen enough failure from our star prospects.

I'll continue to watch minor league baseball and next years draft standings. 

[Vanimal46]

I agree, I thought he'd get a chance to start the season.

But, it was the previous regime that traded for him, so I doubt that investment would have much impact on this regime's plans for him.

It's reasonable for them to think Odorizzi and Lynn would be better than Mejia.

 

Mejia was in their plans IMO as a #4/5 starter until they made the late addition of Lynn.

[Danchat]

 

And I wonder why the Powers that Be thought Motter was better? Petit batted .308 in 26 at bats this year. Nobody expected him to be Dustin Pedrioa, he wasn't, but he seemed to at least be able to spot start with efficiency.

 

Motter's younger and can play OF. But Petit is a better ballplayer. Isn't that the most important thing in the end?

The Twins needed Petit's roster spot when they signed Belisle (* vomits *) and they had claimed Motter off waivers hoping they could do something with him. The Motter experiment will be over in about a week when Polanco returns, so I don't think there's any merit getting Petit back up here. We can bring him back up if another infielder gets injured.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's reasonable for them to think Odorizzi and Lynn would be better than Mejia.

 

Mejia was in their plans IMO as a #4/5 starter until they made the late addition of Lynn.

Lance Lynn had a FIP of 4.82 last year.

I'd have rather had Mejia and the draft pick than Lynn. And that's not hindsight.