Article: Week in Review: DEFCON 1

[VATwinsFan]

 

I'm willing to give the ghost of Francois Mitterrand a chance.

I'm not that desperate.

 

Yet.

[Han Joelo]

I'm not that desperate.

Yet.

You have to admit that watching the team flail away, you have to wonder if they are swinging non-corporeal "ghost" bats.

[twins_89]

I wish there were moves the Twins could make to turn things around, unfortunately there is almost nothing they can do in the next few weeks. There just isn't much of a market to add talent through trade until closer to the deadline and we don't have any prospects who look like they would be a significant improvement if called up. The fact is, the team just isn't going to succeed when over half of the position players are performing well below expectations. 

 

About all the Twins can do is try to stay close enough to Cleveland to justify adding some talent at the trade deadline (catcher and a competent RH hitting outfielder are the glaring needs). Couple an addition or two with guys coming back (Santana, Polanco, May) or figuring things out (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Dozier) and we might be able to make a run at the Indians in the second half.

[Thrylos]

 

I wish there were moves the Twins could make to turn things around, unfortunately there is almost nothing they can do in the next few weeks. There just isn't much of a market to add talent through trade until closer to the deadline

 

Check twitter.  Teams that care to improve do it fast.  Re: Nationals

[David HK]

There is still time, and we can thank the baseball gods for us being in the Central. But our MoY has given away so many winnable games in this first half, I don't see us threatening Cleveland without a dugout sweep-out.

 

Case in point: "And we've gotta give some props to Matt Magill, the rarely-used last man in the bullpen who continues to step up when called upon." While we were watching RPE and ARE give away game after game, sometimes on their own, sometimes in tandem, Magill sat rotting in the BP for 10 days.  Finally, he relieves Romero and shuts Cleveland down for 3 innings. MoY's take? "You're not sure what you're going to get after 10 days off."

 

Well, WHY were there 10 days off? Especially when the only 2 guys you ever use in leveraged situations are blowing each and every game they're in? Why would you not even have anyone warming while ARE is getting tagged 0-2 again and again? Why would you leave the Robbie Grossman Experience in the field in a tight, late-inning game?

 

The Twinks have already given up more than a handful of winnable games, while waiting for the cavalry to arrive- waiting for Polanco and Santana, for Joe to return,for Bux and Sano to find their a** with both hands. Lynn has responded well after a terrible start. Morrison hasn't. Dozier has been in a slumber all year, but until recently, was still hitting in the 1 spot, or other crucial places. This team has needed a hand on the tiller who's not afraid to shake things up and try new combos to get it done. I'm probably beating the same dead horse here, but I don't see us in the same position with someone like, oh, say... Ozzie Guillen in the dugout.

 

We've needed to stay close to the Indians while we wait for reinforcements, and for guys to figure stuff out. Giving away winnable games, especially against our Central neighbors, is a crime.

[twins_89]

 

Check twitter.  Teams that care to improve do it fast.  Re: Nationals

 

I'm more than a little surprised that a player of Herrera's caliber got traded this early, especially for a prospect package that isn't particularly strong. Maybe there's hope that the Twins could get a guy like Wilson Ramos sooner than expected (and without giving up our top prospects). 

[wsnydes]

Check twitter. Teams that care to improve do it fast. Re: Nationals

Seattle has made a deal or two as well. Arizona made one too I believe.

[KGB]

 

Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA.

 

If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.

www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/logan-morrison-7405/

Contract Notes:
Plate Apperanace Incentives
$550,000 each for 450,500, 550
Vesting Option:
500 PA: $8.5M
550 PA: $9M
600 PA: $9.5M

 

I believe his contract vest at 500 PA.  They might have better options, but the FO hasn't shown an interest in adding younger players early to the 40 man roster so they probably would promote Carter or Vargas first.  Maybe in September you would get a young player who would be added to the 40 man next year.  Also don't see them trading for a bat at this point.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/logan-morrison-7405/

Contract Notes:

Plate Apperanace Incentives

$550,000 each for 450,500, 550

Vesting Option:

500 PA: $8.5M

550 PA: $9M

600 PA: $9.5M

 

I believe his contract vest at 500 PA. They might have better options, but the FO hasn't shown an interest in adding younger players early to the 40 man roster so they probably would promote Carter or Vargas first. Maybe in September you would get a young player who would be added to the 40 man next year. Also don't see them trading for a bat at this point.

Spotrac has it worded incorrectly, I believe.

 

The cost of the option goes up at those benchmarks, but doesn't become guaranteed until 600 PA's.

[Otto von Ballpark]

www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/logan-morrison-7405/

Contract Notes:

Plate Apperanace Incentives

$550,000 each for 450,500, 550

Vesting Option:

500 PA: $8.5M

550 PA: $9M

600 PA: $9.5M

 

I believe his contract vest at 500 PA. They might have better options, but the FO hasn't shown an interest in adding younger players early to the 40 man roster so they probably would promote Carter or Vargas first. Maybe in September you would get a young player who would be added to the 40 man next year. Also don't see them trading for a bat at this point.

I think Spotrac is mistaken, or at least unclear. The option value increases at 500 and 550 PA, but it doesn't automatically vest until 600 PA. MLB Trade Rumors had that info, referencing very specific tweets from both LEN3 and Phil Miller:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/twins-to-sign-logan-morrison.html

 

Cot's/BP has it as well, and also includes another detail, that the buyout also increases at 550 PA -- which by definition would require the vesting threshold to be even higher:

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

 

And by better options, I meant if the rest of the lineup starts hitting, they could probably DH Escobar more and play Polanco at SS and Adrianza at 3B. Or hopefully Sano comes back, and he and Mauer could take most of the 1B/DH at bats.

Edited June 19, 2018 by spycake

[ThejacKmp]

 

Just from their current roster, Heaney and Richards missed virtually the entire last 2 seasons. Tropeano missed a year and a half (and is out again now), Shoemaker missed much of last year and now all of this year, and Skaggs has missed a lot of time too. Ohtani could be out until 2020 now. JC Ramirez looked like a decent swingman, out for the season. Terrible luck with rotation health. Their closer Middleton is also out for the season, maybe into 2019.

 

They're not a perfect team, but they've really gotten burned by pitcher injuries the last few years.

 

I'm talking more about this team, not two years ago. Richards makes $7 million, Shoemaker makes $4 million, Skaggs under $2 million, and Heaney and Tropeano don't even make $1 million. For a big market team with aspirations, they've invested almost nothing in their big league rotation. They haven't been in on big free agent pitchers and they haven't signed the solid depth guys like Lynn. Of those guys, only Richards and Ohtani (who they were pretty lucky to get) have upside higher than a #3. You can't go into a season with 3/5 of the rotation having missed most of the past two years and think, "We're going to be fine!"

 

And it's not like they've spent that money on a deep lineup. They're old and ineffective. You really could only project a good season from Trout and Upton this year. They've gotten one from Simmelton but everyone else has been about what you'd expect (except Kalhoun, he's been terrible).

 

Bad lineup, unrealistic rotation, average bullpen. That's not a well-conceived team. They were dependent on Ohtani being a superstar to make the playoffs as a wild card. They got lucky that he was and then unlucky that he got hurt. But any GM that rests a team's hopes on a 23-year two-way guy from Japan isn't doing a great job.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Check twitter.  Teams that care to improve do it fast.  Re: Nationals

 

What were the Royals thinking? Herrera is one of the better relief arms there and they skipped the whole arms-race-at-the-deadline thing. I know nothing is guaranteed but you know that teams are going to want in on relief arms, they are every year. It's not like they got some "can't help but take this" offer.

 

The Nationals are all-in this year. The Twins are not. A team like the Nationals should be thinking of buying in mid-June. A team like the Twins should be thinking about playing out the string a bit to see if they should buy or sell (it'd be one thing if they needed something major but we're talking a platoon catcher and a 4th OF as the big needs - hardly holes you need to fill immediately). I'm fine with the Twins letting those two markets play out while they see if the offense can take off.

Edited June 19, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm talking more about this team, not two years ago. Richards makes $7 million, Shoemaker makes $4 million, Skaggs under $2 million, and Heaney and Tropeano don't even make $1 million. For a big market team with aspirations, they've invested almost nothing in their big league rotation. They haven't been in on big free agent pitchers and they haven't signed the solid depth guys like Lynn. Of those guys, only Richards and Ohtani (who they were pretty lucky to get) have upside higher than a #3. You can't go into a season with 3/5 of the rotation having missed most of the past two years and think, "We're going to be fine!"

 

And it's not like they've spent that money on a deep lineup. They're old and ineffective. You really could only project a good season from Trout and Upton this year. They've gotten one from Simmelton but everyone else has been about what you'd expect (except Kalhoun, he's been terrible).

 

Bad lineup, unrealistic rotation, average bullpen. That's not a well-conceived team. They were dependent on Ohtani being a superstar to make the playoffs as a wild card. They got lucky that he was and then unlucky that he got hurt. But any GM that rests a team's hopes on a 23-year two-way guy from Japan isn't doing a great job.

The Angels were 15th in OPS last year and 6th in ERA. Their closest B- or better prospects per Sickels were both pitchers. It makes sense they would try to add some offense to that group (and they still added the best pitcher on the market in Ohtani). You want to criticize them for signing Cozart instead of Lynn, fine, but it's not a serious, obvious error -- they're both at 0.1 bWAR right now, almost halfway through the season. Lynn would have taken starts from rookie Barria (113 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR in 9 starts), while they need Cozart to take starts from Valbuena (-0.5 bWAR).

 

Again, I don't think they are perfect, they have certainly made some mistakes. I wouldn't say they are doing a great job but I don't think they are doing a poor one either. I get the impression they are an average-ish team / front office, for whom the presence of Trout should elevate them into the playoff race, but that's been neutralized by some bad luck the last few years (and also a bit by the Astros good luck). Worth noting that despite the injuries and underperformance, they would still be in a wild card spot now if not for the very surprising Mariners playing 8 games over their pythag.

 

Now depending on how you define "wasting" a star, I could see it applying to the Angels just because they haven't been able to leverage Trout for the postseason, but if your definition has degrees, the Angels are well above, say, the Reds and Votto the last 5 years, or the Orioles and Machado.

[Mike Sixel]

I think KC was thinking there will be a ton of sellers, and they wanted to get ahead of the market. And they must like the players, which goes without saying, but I said it just in case....

[Vanimal46]

I think KC was thinking there will be a ton of sellers, and they wanted to get ahead of the market. And they must like the players, which goes without saying, but I said it just in case....

And there will be a ton of sellers. 10 teams are clear sellers right now with a few more bubble teams like NYM, and whoever decides to sell in the NL West.

 

Seems like most "Top players on the trade block" lists are full of RP too.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Now depending on how you define "wasting" a star, I could see it applying to the Angels just because they haven't been able to leverage Trout for the postseason, but if your definition has degrees, the Angels are well above, say, the Reds and Votto the last 5 years, or the Orioles and Machado.

 

How are they way above?

 

The Orioles made the postseason in 2016, 2014 and 2012. LCS in 2014. That's 3/7 years with Machado. The Reds made the playoffs in 2010, 2012 and 2013. The Angels only made it in 2014. Mike Trout has played three postseason games.

 

And Mike Trout is way more of a star than Votto and especially Machado. Trout is likely the best player of his generation and is on track to potentially be the best player of all time. The Angels only have him two more years and are going to have to start thinking about trading him if they don't compete by the break next year. It's criminal to make the playoffs once in nine years with Mike Trout.

Edited June 19, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[jun]

 

What were the Royals thinking? Herrera is one of the better relief arms there and they skipped the whole arms-race-at-the-deadline thing. I know nothing is guaranteed but you know that teams are going to want in on relief arms, they are every year. It's not like they got some "can't help but take this" offer.

 

The Nationals are all-in this year. The Twins are not. A team like the Nationals should be thinking of buying in mid-June. A team like the Twins should be thinking about playing out the string a bit to see if they should buy or sell (it'd be one thing if they needed something major but we're talking a platoon catcher and a 4th OF as the big needs - hardly holes you need to fill immediately). I'm fine with the Twins letting those two markets play out while they see if the offense can take off.

The Twins haven't made any meaningful trades in recent years. Therefore I don't even care.

Edited June 19, 2018 by jun

[Otto von Ballpark]

How are they way above?

 

The Orioles made the postseason in 2016, 2014 and 2012. LCS in 2014. That's 3/7 years with Machado. The Reds made the playoffs in 2010, 2012 and 2013. The Angels only made it in 2014. Mike Trout has played three postseason games.

 

And Mike Trout is way more of a star than Votto and especially Machado. Trout is likely the best player of his generation and is on track to potentially be the best player of all time. The Angels only have him two more years and are going to have to start thinking about trading him if they don't compete by the break next year. It's criminal to make the playoffs once in nine years with Mike Trout.

Once in 9 years? Trout has only completed 6 seasons since his rookie year. I wouldn't write them off for the next 3 postseasons just yet.

 

You are right that the Reds and Orioles haven't been without success, but:

 

The Reds went into a deep, long-term rebuild, and not a particularly effective one (now at 4 years and counting), despite having a peak performing Votto.

 

The Orioles failed to buy out any of Machado's FA years, and have managed to squander their last year of him as the worst team in MLB (and not even due to rebuilding).

 

The Angels have at least been in the contention mix for 5 of Trout's 7 seasons, including this year, and I think they forecast for the same the next two, no matter what harbingers of doom you want to bring.

 

Angels fans are right to be disappointed in their Trout era playoff record, but I'd fire Orioles and Reds executives far quicker than I'd do the same for the Angels.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Keep in mind the more limited effect of superstars in baseball, compared to other sports. A basketball team or football team with a superstar (QB) and that playoff record would indeed be criminal. Baseball? It's not good, but it's not necessarily bad either.

 

Also keep in mind the Angels can approach this knowing they have the ability and a fair chance to re-sign Trout. They don't have to get too desperate about their "window" like perhaps the Orioles have done.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Once in 9 years? Trout has only completed 6 seasons since his rookie year. I wouldn't write them off for the next 3 postseasons just yet.

You are right that the Reds and Orioles haven't been without success, but:

The Reds went into a deep, long-term rebuild, and not a particularly effective one (now at 4 years and counting), despite having a peak performing Votto.

The Orioles failed to buy out any of Machado's FA years, and have managed to squander their last year of him as the worst team in MLB (and not even due to rebuilding).

The Angels have at least been in the contention mix for 5 of Trout's 7 seasons, including this year, and I think they forecast for the same the next two, no matter what harbingers of doom you want to bring.

Angels fans are right to be disappointed in their Trout era playoff record, but I'd fire Orioles and Reds executives far quicker than I'd do the same for the Angels.

 

Didn't count rookie year. This is year 7 and he has two more years left. That said, I said if they didn’t compete in the next year and a half so eight would be more accurate.

 

Still, I don’t think that’s a bold call given the current roster – a lot of oft-injured starters, Ohtani heading towards TJ, big contracts to below-replacement veterans. Do you see a path to the Angels being competitive by the end of Trout’s contract that doesn’t involve a miraculous Ohtani recovery? I don’t. They’re cash-strapped and blocked at most positions due to big contracts to Pujols, Cosart, and Simmons. The farm system is ranked #20 (with top prospects all in the low minors – highest graded prospect likely to hit be end of 2019 is a C+ prospect) so help isn’t coming from within. Maybe if all of their starters stay healthy and they get a bunch of bounce-back seasons? Even then a stretch in a pretty tough division (the A’s and Rangers are competitive, the Astros are dominant, and the Mariners are competitive).

 

Playoffs are what matter. Those Orioles teams won the most games in the AL over five years from 2012 to 2015 – it eventually broke down because they went for it without pitching but that’s baseball. At least they took a shot?

 

The Reds made 3 out of 4 postseasons in Votto’s prime. It’s also important to note that they’ve only kept Votto during the rebuild because he doesn’t want to leave and has a no-trade clause. There’s no chance of losing him so they’ve done a slow rebuild.

 

Trout isn’t going to be the same. He’s young and he wants to win and the Angels clearly can’t provide that. And he loves the Yankees . .  .

Edited June 19, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Keep in mind the more limited effect of superstars in baseball, compared to other sports. A basketball team or football team with a superstar (QB) and that playoff record would indeed be criminal. Baseball? It's not good, but it's not necessarily bad either.

Also keep in mind the Angels can approach this knowing they have the ability and a fair chance to re-sign Trout. They don't have to get too desperate about their "window" like perhaps the Orioles have done.

 

If Mike Trout hits the open market, he’s more likely to re-sign than Machado but not by much. They can throw big market money at him but every other big market will too. And others can offer a much better chance to win. The Yankees are going to hand him 12 years like its nothing. Can the Angels do that with Pujols still on the books?

 

I’m not sure that an Angels team that is struggling at the break next year can afford not to trade Trout and do a quick retool around Ohtani. If Trout leaves and they get nothing but a draft pick that would be devastating.

 

As for the first part, we’re talking about maybe the best baseball player ever. A once-in-a-generation talent. MLB isn’t as conducive to stars carrying teams but that’s still crazy if they get nothing from this era.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trout is signed through 2020, so they have 2 more seasons after this one. So even if Ohtani has surgery, and misses a whole year, they could be reunited for 2020. And Pujols is "only" signed through 2021 so his deal is pretty much irrelevant to the next Trout deal (only 1 year overlap).

 

I still think they have a fair shot at contention this year too -- maybe not for the title, but for qualifying for the postseason. The Mariners lead now reminds me of the Royals lead around the trade deadline last summer, and their current playoff odds are correspondingly overrated.

Edited June 19, 2018 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trout is signed through 2020, so they have 2 more seasons after this one. So even if Ohtani has surgery, and misses a whole year, they could be reunited for 2020. And Pujols is "only" signed through 2021 so his deal is pretty much irrelevant to the next Trout deal (only 1 year overlap).

I still think they have a fair shot at contention this year too -- maybe not for the title, but for qualifying for the postseason. The Mariners lead now reminds me of the Royals lead around the trade deadline last summer, and their current playoff odds are correspondingly overrated.

Are you saying the Mariners aren't a lock for the postseason with their +8 pythag record and +7 BaseRuns record?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are you saying the Mariners aren't a lock for the postseason with their +8 pythag record and +7 BaseRuns record?

The Mariners are sure keeping up their end of the bargain, though. Up to +10 pythag and +8 BaseRuns now. Fangraphs has actually bumped up their playoff odds from 70% to 84% in the 2.5 weeks since this post.

 

Their closest competitor is actually Oakland, at 6.5 games back (up slightly from 8 GB on June 20). Next is the Rays and Angels each at 11 GB now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mike Trout. It's sad the Angels seem to be intent on wasting his talents.

Not to revive this old discussion, but it also occurred to me the Angels did change GMs in the middle of the Trout era, firing Dipoto mid-2015 and hiring Billy Eppler from the Yankees after that season. Since then, I think they've been smarter, and while not all of their moves have worked out, they haven't been sacrificing too many long-term dollars or talent. They should have another chance to reload this winter.

 

I agree the Angels overall franchise performance has to be considered a disappointment in the Trout era, but I think the current front office has been doing about the best they can given the limitations they inherited in the form of the Pujols deal, the Hamilton deal (which just came of the books last winter), various injuries, etc. That's the perspective I was taking.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not to revive this old discussion, but it also occurred to me the Angels did change GMs in the middle of the Trout era, firing Dipoto mid-2015 and hiring Billy Eppler from the Yankees after that season. Since then, I think they've been smarter, and while not all of their moves have worked out, they haven't been sacrificing too many long-term dollars or talent. They should have another chance to reload this winter.

 

I agree the Angels overall franchise performance has to be considered a disappointment in the Trout era, but I think the current front office has been doing about the best they can given the limitations they inherited in the form of the Pujols deal, the Hamilton deal (which just came of the books last winter), various injuries, etc. That's the perspective I was taking.

 

Interesting that Jerry Dipoto is now the toast of the town and signed an extension with the Mariners (they’re playing well but I can’t see how Dipoto’s leadership suddenly made them unstoppable in close games). If I recall, the reason the Angels canned him was Scioscia didn’t want to use analytics and he did.

 

There’s room for improvement over the past (hard to do worse) but the reality is that their backs are against the wall. Trout has two more years. It seems more and more unlikely Ohtani will pitch during that period of time and the roster is still a mess. They can go and spend a bunch of money in free agency (they’ll have to since the farm system is bottom 10) but that generally has mixed results. Especially since Simmons is unlikely to repeat this year and Upton is hitting the age where the wheels can start to come off. There’s not a lot of upside on that roster, not even taking the fragility of the rotation into consideration.

 

To make matters worse, the AL right now is a tough spot to be. The Red Sox and Yankees are young and good and apt to spend a lot this winter. The Astros are in the division and are deep and talented enough to make the division title hard to find. So really, if you’re the Angels you’re hoping to be the second wild card next year? That’s a tough sell with this roster. I think the Angels are going to have to seriously consider moving Trout at the deadline next year which means you may really have wasted a guy who may end up the best baseball player of all time.

 

That’s pretty rough.