Article: Week in Review: DEFCON 1

[Vanimal46]

Dozier looks like he needs a stint in A ball.

So does everyone else not named Ed, Joe, and Ehire...

[yarnivek1972]

Here’s my question. What makes people think Carter would be better than Morrison? Morrison has basically the same numbers at the MLB level as Carter at AAA.

[KGB]

Here’s my question. What makes people think Carter would be better than Morrison? Morrison has basically the same numbers at the MLB level as Carter at AAA.

 

I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA.

 

If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.

[Vanimal46]

I don't think he will be better, but you can't let Morrison get to his vesting option. So you will need to make a move with him.

If he keeps hitting like this, have no fear... He won't hit the goal he needs to achieve to get the vesting option.

 

Once Sano is done with his intervention I'm guessing he'll be the primary 1B/DH going forward

[Nick Nelson]

As we discuss alternatives to Morrison at DH, I will note that Hanley Ramirez is still sitting out there in free agency. Seems inexplicable that he hasn't signed anywhere after Boston released him nearly three weeks ago. 

[ashbury]

As we discuss alternatives to Morrison at DH, I will note that Hanley Ramirez is still sitting out there in free agency. Seems inexplicable that he hasn't signed anywhere after Boston released him nearly three weeks ago. 

Maybe other teams also read what I keep coming back to in MLBTR when Hanley was released:

"Dombrowski says Cora assuaged any worry that bumping Ramirez would harm chemistry in the clubhouse."

 

It's hard to get a GM to be more direct than that.

 

Or perhaps other teams have their own sources too.

[Thrylos]

 

 

The club's biggest problem child was sent packing after Thursday's loss in Detroit.

 

Unfortunately he did not.

 

Dozier last 2 weeks:  .098/.196/.171 .
Dozier with men on season: .226/.234/.371

 

Sano last 2 weeks: .167/.219/.233
Sano with men on season: .263/.296/.500

 

Facts.

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by Thrylos

[Otto von Ballpark]

Morrison is definitely disappointing, but with some mercy from the BABIP gods (.218 this season, career mark entering this season was .273), he would have a roughly league average batting line right now, even without the power.

 

Ramirez would need to regain his power to top that, and he's further removed from plus power than Morrison.

[ThejacKmp]

Complete and utter aside.
 

I was reading an article about Mike Trout and started playing around with his stats on Baseball Reference. Turns out the AL team (interleague has small sample so excluding NL teams) he has the hardest time with is the Twins. However, this year we only have two payers (Rosario and Escobar) with a higher OPS than Trout has against the Twins (.873). And we're the team he plays the worst against.

 

That's crazy. Mike Trout. It's sad the Angels seem to be intent on wasting his talents.

 

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe other teams also read what I keep coming back to in MLBTR when Hanley was released:

"Dombrowski says Cora assuaged any worry that bumping Ramirez would harm chemistry in the clubhouse." It's hard to get a GM to be more direct than that.

 

Or perhaps other teams have their own sources too.

Even in the analytics era the nerds still seem to agree about one non-statistical team building philosophy: don’t employ cancers.

[Doomtints]

I said during the offseason, probably more than once, that it looked like the Twins were building themselves to do one thing: Beat Cleveland. They are accomplishing that goal, generally. Unfortunately the Twins need some right handed hitting to beat everyone else.

 

Having said that ... these Twins *are* better than last year's Twins. But remember, last year was a down year. The only teams over .500 made the playoffs. That's not normal. 

[Number3]

 

AL East, West and Wild Cards are locked, all they have to do is win the Central huh?

My only point was that with the exception of those 4 teams mentioned every other team in MLB is in about the same condition as the Minnesota Twins. If they keep beating Cleveland they could actually win the Central but I was just trying to say that a whole bunch of teams are scratching and clawing around the .500 mark. Who would think that at this point of the season Buxton and Santana would be on the DL and Sano would be in  A ball and the team batting average is in the .230s and the Twins are far from out of it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's crazy. Mike Trout. It's sad the Angels seem to be intent on wasting his talents.

 

To be fair, I think the Angels have assembled a pretty good team around Trout, if not for injuries...

[jun]

 

So does everyone else not named Ed, Joe, and Ehire...

I hope it does not mean nobody should be demoted since almost everyone except Eds, Joe and Ehire is having a slump.

Edited June 18, 2018 by jun

[jun]

 

Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA.

 

If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.

Morrison needs to bat much lower than the 4th since he has been struggling. By batting him lower, it will help the situation even better.

[ThejacKmp]

To be fair, I think the Angels have assembled a pretty good team around Trout, if not for injuries...

Not sure what Angels team you’re looking at. This Angels team is top heavy and frankly, has overachieved. It’s not an awful team but the role injuries have played for the Angels has been overstated.

 

• Ohtani is obviously a big loss but he was also markedly better than anyone would have expected coming in. He wasn’t a guy you could pen in.

• Garrett Richards is really the only other major player who has missed time. And Garrett Richards missing time should be expected at this point as he’s started a total of 12 games the past two years. He’s a good player but not someone who should make or break your season.

• Guys like Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun have also hit the DL but those guys have been pretty awful so missing them hasn’t been a big deal. The Angels have had 15 guys hit the DL but they haven’t been particularly good players.

 

The real issue is that this was a pretty risky team to begin with:

 

LINEUP: The biggest issue for the Angels is their lineup is pretty awful – it feels like those top-heavy Tigers teams. They have Trout and little else. The Angels have gotten a career year from Simmons and what counts as a bounce-back year from Pujols and even with that are pretty deficient. The non-Simmons infield is super old and ineffective – Pujols and Kinsler have predictably struggled, they bet on Cozart after a career year out of nowhere, and Luis Valbuena has taken a big step back at 32. Upton is having the season you’d expect and is a good player but he’s really the only guy besides Trout who is having the good season you’d expect. Calhoun and Chris Young have both been awful at the other corner. In short, the Angels once again trotted out a lineup of Trout, a few good players and a lot of drivel. They haven’t developed any cheap, effective position players and that’s killing them. Again. Trout is great but you can’t depend on him every game.

 

ROTATION: Those Tigers teams were hit-and-miss but they got away with it some years because they had dominant pitching. The Angels had Ohtani and Richards but other than that, they’ve actually been way luckier than they could expect. Skaggs is outperforming his FIP by a half run and Barria by 1.7 runs. Andrew Heaney is having a bounce-back year but he’s started even less games than Richards these past two years. The Angels rotation was “hope Richards pitches a full season, Ohtani is an ace, and we can cobble it together otherwise”. They’ve gotten luckier than they should have on the back half of that but depending on Richards and Ohtani seemed pretty risky and has turned out rather predictably.

 

BULLPEN: The Angels pen sits middle of the pack. They’ve lost some arms to injury but no one especially damaging. This is about the pen they could expect to have.

 

I don’t see a well-put-together team. I see an organization that continues to try to take shortcuts and is paying for past mistakes. Pujols salary hurts their ability to cash in with free agency and they make strange decisions with the money they have (Zach Cozart was one of the more questionable offseason signings and bringing in Kinsler was a pretty risky proposition). They’re dependent on catching lightning in a bottle with guys like Simmons and Kinsler and while those work out sometimes, you’re almost always better off using young guys who might develop into something better than expected.

 

Poorly constructed team. They only have two more years of Trout and they’re wasting it. No one should be surprised if he ends up in pinstripes halfway through next year.

[slash129]

Well, at least we aren't Baltimore fans.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Turns out Stewart is two months younger than me...which means that despite Ichiro's temporary retirement, there is still a professional baseball player older than me!  It's almost like that thing from The Polar Express, where I can still hear Santa's magic bell ringing.

Don't look back, something might be gaining on you.

[ThejacKmp]

Well, at least we aren't Baltimore fans.

God that would be the worst. Imagine looking at the Yankees and Red Sox and being as bad as the Orioles. Ugh.

 

The Twins are at least looking rosy for the future. A young developing core with some high-upside MILB arms and the ability to compete now. And the Royals and Tigers are in the process of bottoming out while the Indians are starting to see the end of their window. The White Sox have tons of prospects but not all will pan out (hopefully!)

 

It's a bit dark now but overall, not a bad spot to be in for the Twinkies in the AL Central.

[Dantes929]

 

How many Defcon levels are there?  I'm assuming our Defcon's go to 11.  

 

Also, how does Total System Failure work into the Defcon protocols?

 

As crappy as so many guys are playing on offense, it is amazing they are anywhere near Cleveland in the standings.  A lot of people would jettison players, but at this point, I think if I'm in charge (ha!) I roll the dice that Dozier, Morrison, et al, get rolling before its too late.

 

Its been said, but this team could use a Shannon Stewart type spark.  The Mariners and the D-backs have been early traders, and both acquired a Stewart type player.  Now, I realize there are many factors at play, and correlation doesn't equal causation and all that or something, but hey, they're both in first place.

 

With Kepler's struggles, Buxton's uncertainty, and the underwhelming contributions from Grossman, Lamarre, and Cave, a quality veteran OFer would be on my wishlist.

I banking on Buxton being that spark.   He was last year and he is our best chance this year. 

[ThejacKmp]

I banking on Buxton being that spark.   He was last year and he is our best chance this year.

Polanco too. And who would be surprised if Dozier went nuclear for two months? Nice thing for the Twins is that Rosario/Escobar seems relatively sustainable (maybe more Rosario than Escobar) and guys like Kepler, Dozier, Morrison, Garver, Buxton, Sano, and Polanco all have the upside to make this offense scary. With the pitching solid, how many really need to get hot to set the Twins on a streak? 2 or 3?

 

Didn't even mention the positive effect of having steady Mauer around.

Edited June 18, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Morrison needs to bat much lower than the 4th since he has been struggling. By batting him lower, it will help the situation even better.

who should bat 1-4? You’ve got Mauer and the Eds and then.... Who? Adrianza? Grossman? Please put together a lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not sure what Angels team you’re looking at. This Angels team is top heavy and frankly, has overachieved. It’s not an awful team but the role injuries have played for the Angels has been overstated.

Just from their current roster, Heaney and Richards missed virtually the entire last 2 seasons. Tropeano missed a year and a half (and is out again now), Shoemaker missed much of last year and now all of this year, and Skaggs has missed a lot of time too. Ohtani could be out until 2020 now. JC Ramirez looked like a decent swingman, out for the season. Terrible luck with rotation health. Their closer Middleton is also out for the season, maybe into 2019.

 

They're not a perfect team, but they've really gotten burned by pitcher injuries the last few years.

[VATwinsFan]

Add my name to the list of folks who want up give Chris Carter a chance.

[Han Joelo]

 

Add my name to the list of folks who want up give Chris Carter a chance.

 

I'm willing to give the ghost of Francois Mitterrand a chance.

[ashbury]

 

I'm willing to give the ghost of Francois Mitterrand a chance.

All I am saying is, trade for R.J. Peace and give him a chance.

 

http://www.beatleswiki.com/wiki/images/thumb/0/09/John-Lennon_1969.jpg/220px-John-Lennon_1969.jpg

[jun]

 

who should bat 1-4? You’ve got Mauer and the Eds and then.... Who? Adrianza? Grossman? Please put together a lineup.

I would rather have Grossman bat 4th Kepler 5th Morrison 6th Dozier 7th Garver 8th Adrianza 9th.

Well I would like to see Grossman DH more. That would take away some ABs from Morrison.

Edited June 18, 2018 by jun

[Thrylos]

To give a bit of factual context, here are what the Twins' hitters are doing the last week.  In short:  Everyone whose first name does not start with E has played within various degrees of awfulness ranging from replacement level to pathetic.  So eg. sitting Morrison for Kepler or Grossman will be akin to rearranging Titanic's chaises longues...

 

Edited June 18, 2018 by Thrylos

[VATwinsFan]

 

Add my name to the list of folks who want up give Chris Carter a chance.

Ugh, that's some pretty mangled spellchecking.  I of course meant, "...want TO give..."