Article: CLE 4, MIN 1: Lots of Traffic, Just One Run

[Tom Froemming]

The Twins racked up 10 hits and added three walks but all that activity on the bases resulted in just one run Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Jake Odorizzi didn’t have his best performance either, walking four batters in five innings while barely throwing more than half of his pitches for strikes.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Jake Odorizi: 43 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, 53.8% strikes

Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB

Lineup: 1-for-10 w/RISP, 10 LOB

Top three per WPA: Escobar .185, Grossman .104, Motter .028

Download attachment: WinEx617.png

Brian Dozier, hitting in the fifth spot again, went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and left five men on base. He recorded the final out of the first inning, stranding a runner on second base. In the third, Dozier again accounted for the third out, leaving men on first and second. In the fifth, Dozier was up with two outs and runners on second and third … you know where this is going by now. He grounded out to end the inning.

 

To be fair, Brian wasn’t the only one who had a rough day at the plate. Mitch Garver was 1-for-4 with a pair of Ks and left four men on and Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison and Ehire Adrianza all left three men on base.

 

One guy who had a great game was Eduardo Escobar. He hit three more doubles, giving him 30 on the season. He had the team’s lone RBI, driving in Mauer in the first inning.

 

Prior to today, Odorizzi was relying on his four-seam fastball just 33 percent of the time, a career low per Brooks Baseball. Maybe he didn’t have a feel for his other pitches, or maybe it was just that he was constantly behind in the count, but today Odorizzi deployed that pitch 59 percent of the time.

 

The big sting from Cleveland was a bases-clearing double in the third inning that Odorizzi left right in the middle of the plate.

 

The Twins were also rough around the edges both in the field and on the bases once again. Eddie Rosario played a single into a triple. Garver and Adrianza combined for a bad moment on the bases, resulting in an out at third.

 

Robbie Grossman left this game with a heat-related illness in the sixth inning.

 

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen617.png

AL Central Standings

CLE 37-33

DET 35-37 (-3)

MIN 31-37 (-5)

CHW 24-45 (-12.5)

KC 22-48 (-15)

 

Next Three Games

Mon OFF

Tue at BOS, 7:10 pm CT - Jose Berrios vs. Chris Sale

Wed at BOS, 7:10 pm CT - Lance Lynn vs. David Price

Thu at BOS, 12:10 pm CT - Kyle Gibson vs. Rick Porcello

 

Last Three Games

MIN 9, CLE 3: That’s Our Eddie

MIN 6, CLE 3: Anything is Possible

DET 3, MIN 1: Lynn Overexposed, Offense Overmatched

 

See Also

I took some time this morning to speculate on when I expect Miguel Sano to return to the Twins. Check it out and let me know what you think:

 

Click here to view the article

[jun]

Dozier needs to sit on the bench or bat 8th in the lineup, Garver and Wilson needs to be demoted, Morrison needs to bat 7th in the order. Mauer needs to swing the bat and swing it much earlier in the count. Astudillo and Saywer need to be promoted. I've seen enough.

[mikelink45]

I do not have a feeling for Sano's return, nor Buxtons, but in the mean time I am seeing Morrison, Dozier, Kepler really letting us down.  Garver is a catcher and they are seldom the main cog in the system and Adrianza is a utility player who is in the field too much, but the other three are supposed to bring some hits and power.  All they are doing is making it harder to let Sano go down and learn.  

[Han Joelo]

I took the family to see Infinity War while this was happening--(not?)surprisingly packed on a rainy Sunday/Father's Day two months after it opened.

 

Seems like Thanos snapped his fingers and half of all Dads who are baseball fans were disappointed today.  The odds of the Avengers defeating Thanos were something like 1 in 14 million; surely the Twins still have a chance.

 

Tomorrow, Berrios v. Sale--THAT is THE season defining game, the must win of must wins, Rocky Balboa in the 14th round-back flat against the wall type of stuff.  I hope Berrios didn't just read that sentence.

[bighat]

I agree with mikelink45 - we can rip Adrianza and Garver all we want, but that's low-hanging fruit. Morrison is batting .188 with 7 home runs. Were it not for Chris Davis' nosedive in Baltimore, Logan Morrison would be the biggest disappointment in baseball right now. I'm not sure where the recent warm and fuzzy treatment of Morrison has come from, people saying things like "over his last 15 games he's hitting .239" like that's supposed to be a good thing. The guy was supposed to hit 30 HR and drive in 90 runs, he's been absolutely awful and a black hole in this lineup. Where are the 3-hit games? The multi-homer games? The hot streaks? A real shame to drop this game today, the Twins still aren't making up much ground and they are still way below .500. Great individual play from Escobar again, but he's getting zero help. Molitor's shaking up the lineup, but it's something he should have done last month.

 

Odorizzi is giving Romero a run for his money as the worst of the starting 5. Glad they've got Berrios, Lynn, and Gibby going against the Red Sox. Unfortunately they're going against Sale, Price, and Porcello.

[Old Twins Cap]

The way it works over the course of a season is a team needs three, four, maybe five guys to have career years if you want to make a run at the Division, or even to the Series.

 

Others can have average years and you still turn out okay.

 

Twins have Escobar and Rosario laying down track.

 

No one else is even close to their career norms, maybe Adrianza. 

 

We ain't going anywhere special.

[Vanimal46]

"We had chances" describes the whole season thus far. Another game that was there for the taking and they blow it.

[Danchat]

 

The way it works over the course of a season is a team needs three, four, maybe five guys to have career years if you want to make a run at the Division, or even to the Series.

 

Others can have average years and you still turn out okay.

 

Twins have Escobar and Rosario laying down track.

 

No one else is even close to their career norms, maybe Adrianza. 

 

We ain't going anywhere special.

Adrianza is easily having his best season in the majors... but that's due to his track record being bad and also not playing very often.

[Broker]

Yeah. things don't go well when the offense doesn't show up. Who woulda thought it.

[Tibs]

Dozier is something like 3 for his last 38. You can't keep throwing him out there every day when he is hitting like that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I went into this offseason thinking I'd hate the rotation and love the offense.

 

Instead, I love the rotation and absolutely despise the offense, as it's one of the most frustrating offenses I've ever seen in regards to its ability versus performance.

 

Baseball is weird.

[Squirrel]

 

I went into this offseason thinking I'd hate the rotation and love the offense.

 

Instead, I love the rotation and absolutely despise the offense, as it's one of the most frustrating offenses I've ever seen in regards to its ability versus performance.

 

Baseball is weird.

Your last sentence hits it ... it's why I'm a fan ... you never really know what will happen. But it's also frustrating when the weirdness affects your team in a not-so-optimal way. Such is life.

 

But the starting rotation ... what will happen when Santana is back? Guess that could be its own thread discussion and not sure when that will be so that could affect the answer ... who I would switch out today might not be the same in two weeks.

[Tom Froemming]

The overall numbers are definitely not what you'd expect.

 

With Runners On

.254 AVG (13th)

.326 OBP (18th)

.424 SLG (12th)

 

With Runners In Scoring Position

.263 AVG (6th)

.339 OBP (12th)

.433 SLG (8th)

 

WHAT? How is that even possible? Why isn't the offense scoring more runs?

 

High Leverage (Using FanGraphs, so leverage index of 2.0 or higher)

.218 AVG (26th)

.291 OBP (26th)

.366 SLG (17th)

 

Ah, this probably explains it. Taking a look at this game, the Twins' highest-leverage situations came in the sixth inning. Trailing 4-1, the Twins had runners on second and third with nobody out. Garver strikeout, Adrianza strikeout, Mauer strikeout. 

[Han Joelo]

 

Your last sentence hits it ... it's why I'm a fan ... you never really know what will happen. But it's also frustrating when the weirdness affects your team in a not-so-optimal way. Such is life.

 

But the starting rotation ... what will happen when Santana is back? Guess that could be its own thread discussion and not sure when that will be so that could affect the answer ... who I would switch out today might not be the same in two weeks.

I agree with both paragraphs.  As interesting as statistical analysis has made baseball, if the games followed the numbers I wouldn't need to watch.  Dreaming on a big trade or an explosion from Dozier is the carrot that keeps me going.

 

I'm thinking if Santana came back today, Romero would go to AAA.  In two or three weeks, all things being equal, it might be Romero to the bullpen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But the starting rotation ... what will happen when Santana is back? Guess that could be its own thread discussion and not sure when that will be so that could affect the answer ... who I would switch out today might not be the same in two weeks.

If Santana is truly back and ready to pitch at a high level, I hate to say this but the odd man out is... Fernando Romero.

 

If the team flounders over the next six weeks, you offload Santana, Lynn, and a few others and recall Fernando.

 

But right now, Romero is not helping the team win many baseball games. And right now, the front office has about five weeks to decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline. You need as many wins as possible during that time and letting Romero work through some struggles isn't aligned with that goal.

 

And if Santana doesn't move the needle, then you sell a bunch of players and let Romero pitch through the second half of the season.

[Vanimal46]

Isn't Erv still shut down from his last rehab appearance? Did I miss news about him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Isn't Erv still shut down from his last rehab appearance? Did I miss news about him?

 

Ervin is throwing again, at least:

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-send-byron-buxton-to-class-aaa-rochester-to-get-healthy-and-then-some/485754881/

 

 

Ervin Santana threw a bullpen session Friday in Fort Myers, Fla., and had no problems, Molitor said. But Santana is not yet throwing his slider from the mound, Molitor said, in order to keep from putting too much pressure on his surgically repaired middle finger. The righthander will throw again on Tuesday.

 

[USAFChief]

Particularly galling to me was Mauer watching strikes 1, 2, 3, and 4 sail by without so much as a swing, with 2 out and 2 on. All four pitches were clearly strikes, too, including the first pitch which was called a ball.

 

Swing the bat, ferpetesakes. 

[Mike Sixel]

If Garver goes 1-4 all year, he's a catcher that hits .250. that would be a huge success compared to most catchers, especially for what is basically a first year player. What, exactly, do people expect?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Garver goes 1-4 all year, he's a catcher that hits .250. that would be a huge success compared to most catchers, especially for what is basically a first year player. What, exactly, do people expect?

With Garver's current BB% and power (or lack thereof), a .250 average is only like a 78-80 wRC+. Could he be worse? Sure. But there's just nothing that is particularly encouraging about performance so far.

 

League average for catchers is a 97 wRC+. Garver is worse than league average in ISO, K% -- I guess his BB% is close. His BABIP is actually a bit higher than average.

[Mike Sixel]

 

With Garver's current BB% and power (or lack thereof), a .250 average is only like a 78-80 wRC+. Could he be worse? Sure. But there's just nothing that is particularly encouraging about performance so far.

 

League average for catchers is a 97 wRC+. Garver is worse than league average in ISO, K% -- I guess his BB% is close. His BABIP is actually a bit higher than average.

 

That was not the point of the post....

 

.250 puts him median in catchers BA. As for the rest, sure, it needs to be better....but really, saying a catcher that went 1-4 had a bad day seems off to me.....a rookie to boot.....but sure, no patience for a guy this site named player of the year one year in the minors....

[USAFChief]

 

That was not the point of the post....

 

.250 puts him median in catchers BA. As for the rest, sure, it needs to be better....but really, saying a catcher that went 1-4 had a bad day seems off to me.....a rookie to boot.....but sure, no patience for a guy this site named player of the year one year in the minors....

In terms of yesterday's game, he also was a part of the RBI-deficiency problem.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

If Garver goes 1-4 all year, he's a catcher that hits .250. that would be a huge success compared to most catchers, especially for what is basically a first year player. What, exactly, do people expect?

A significant part of his value as a batter last year was his 13.5% walk rate. Walks don’t translate well to the majors particularly when he hasn’t shown power yet.

 

I still expect to see his power to emerge as he improve in pitch recognition. With the increase in power I think his walk rate will go up. A bat like Chris Iannetta’s is valuable at the catcher position as long as the defense is close to average.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

.250 puts him median in catchers BA. As for the rest, sure, it needs to be better....but really, saying a catcher that went 1-4 had a bad day seems off to me.....a rookie to boot.....but sure, no patience for a guy this site named player of the year one year in the minors....

On the flip side, I don't think 1-for-4 means the player had a good day either. Took a called strike 1 in each at bat. Took 3 called strikes in a row his 2nd AB. Struck out swinging in his 3rd at bat against the same pitcher...

[Mike Sixel]

 

On the flip side, I don't think 1-for-4 means the player had a good day either. Took a called strike 1 in each at bat. Took 3 called strikes in a row his 2nd AB. Struck out swinging in his 3rd at bat against the same pitcher...

 

Agreed, it's just a normal day, imo. Neither good nor bad, just a day.