NBA Offseason 2018

[KirbyDome89]

 

Without Jimmy they are in the lottery, but I would hope to land some talent for him. It's time to aim 2-3 years down the road.

Truth is, Wiggins is a negative asset, he can't be moved. Jimmy has one year left and I don't think he stays. And I'm not sure I want to stick 4 years and 130M in him even if he does.

Agreed, they showed how bad they are w/o Jimmy. 

 

KAT might already be on the way out but if he isn't it certainly won't be easy to sell him on being a lottery team for a few more seasons. If Towns doesn't want to play for Thibs (can't blame him) and he's out then I agree, you sell now and hope to put together pieces down the line. That's sad though.

 

If you can extend Towns and Butler I think you have to do it and then try to fill out the roster around them. I certainly don't love handing Jimmy 4/130 but I'm not sure I'm on board with passing on a superstar and a competitive team, for the hope of finding young talent down the road. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

A hard cap would still fix a lot of this.

 

And removing or fixing max contracts. Top-10 players won't group up as much if it means taking a discount of $10-$15 million instead of $2-5 million.

 

The reality is the league is driven and dominated by the top 10-15 players and having 30 teams just doesn't make sense. You could lop off 10 teams and nobody would miss them. Or start a relegation system so the non-contenders have something interesting to compete for (getting back to the top tier) and to put an end to tanking (hopefully).

 

Also, I hope they can find a solution to these Wiggins-type situations. Teams shouldn't have to make 5-year $150 million commitments to unproven 22 year olds just so they can gamble on the chance that player will eventually develop. At least offer a graceful way out (for both player and team) of albatross deals so it doesn't destroy a budding franchise. I have no idea how you make that work though. I guess I'm just venting.

[Vanimal46]

And removing or fixing max contracts. Top-10 players won't group up as much if it means taking a discount of $10-$15 million instead of $2-5 million.

 

The reality is the league is driven and dominated by the top 10-15 players and having 30 teams just doesn't make sense. You could lop off 10 teams and nobody would miss them. Or start a relegation system so the non-contenders have something interesting to compete for (getting back to the top tier) and to put an end to tanking (hopefully).

 

Also, I hope they can find a solution to these Wiggins-type situations. Teams shouldn't have to make 5-year $150 million commitments to unproven 22 year olds just so they can gamble on the chance that player will eventually develop. At least offer a graceful way out (for both player and team) of albatross deals so it doesn't destroy a budding franchise. I have no idea how you make that work though. I guess I'm just venting.

Teams like Minnesota doesn't really have a choice offering max contracts to people that haven't earned it yet. There's only so many stars in the NBA worth that kind of money, and none are willing to come to Minnesota...

 

The few things they can do is offer that kind of money who has the potential to be good. But more than likely it's going to be a bad deal. Or continue to let young talent walk after their rookie deals are over.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Agreed, they showed how bad they are w/o Jimmy. 

 

KAT might already be on the way out but if he isn't it certainly won't be easy to sell him on being a lottery team for a few more seasons. If Towns doesn't want to play for Thibs (can't blame him) and he's out then I agree, you sell now and hope to put together pieces down the line. That's sad though.

 

If you can extend Towns and Butler I think you have to do it and then try to fill out the roster around them. I certainly don't love handing Jimmy 4/130 but I'm not sure I'm on board with passing on a superstar and a competitive team, for the hope of finding young talent down the road. 

 

I know this won't happen as long as Thibs is here, but I'd call the Lakers, the Celtics, and the Sixers about Butler right now.  Be there plan B if they can't land Kawhi Leonard.  I think you could get a guy like Kouzma or Jaylen Brown or Saric in a deal for him.

 

Plus, I think pairing one of those guys with KAT and Wig might be better for everyone.

[PseudoSABR]

There needs to be an arbitration system to govern the first six years (if not more) of a basketball players career.  Given the age that players come into the league, a four year rookie contract is a bit absurd, and the resources spent developing, often does so for another team.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I know this won't happen as long as Thibs is here, but I'd call the Lakers, the Celtics, and the Sixers about Butler right now.  Be there plan B if they can't land Kawhi Leonard.  I think you could get a guy like Kouzma or Jaylen Brown or Saric in a deal for him.

 

Plus, I think pairing one of those guys with KAT and Wig might be better for everyone.

Kouzma might be tough to pull but if I'm Boston or Philly I can't sign those papers fast enough. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Kouzma might be tough to pull but if I'm Boston or Philly I can't sign those papers fast enough. 

 

Right, I'd probably want a bit more with both of those guys, but there are definitely deals that could be made.  Too bad it's a pipe dream.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Right, I'd probably want a bit more with both of those guys, but there are definitely deals that could be made.  Too bad it's a pipe dream.

http://www.startribune.com/report-jimmy-butler-fed-up-with-karl-anthony-towns/487248281/

 

That Jimmy trade is looking more likely. What a mess...

[TheLeviathan]

 

http://www.startribune.com/report-jimmy-butler-fed-up-with-karl-anthony-towns/487248281/

 

That Jimmy trade is looking more likely. What a mess...

 

I kind of hope this is true.  Trading him to Boston opens up all sorts of options.  

 

Ask for Brown and the 2019 pick that will likely be the Kings pick and I sign off.

[Taildragger8791]

I was curious after the contraction ideas so I did a little digging. Out of current franchises:

• 12 have never won a championship. Seven have never even made a finals appearance
• 8 franchises (and one that went defunct in the early 50's) have exactly 1 championship
• The remaining 10 teams have the rest of the 63 titles in league history, with 50 of them belonging to only 5 teams

This just exemplifies that most teams aren't playing for anything unless they get supremely lucky, and now this era of superteams is driving the point home even more. Most of the league is made up of glorified farm teams and patsies that they've been able to sell as competitive basketball. I'd rather start picking the squads and players I want to follow on a year-by-year basis rather than hoping my hometown squad of overpaid misfits can pull enough crap together to make things interesting.

[Taildragger8791]

 

http://www.startribune.com/report-jimmy-butler-fed-up-with-karl-anthony-towns/487248281/

 

That Jimmy trade is looking more likely. What a mess...

 

To be fair, this article is a re-hash of the Chicago Sun Times article which is written by Joe Cowley, a well-known hack of a sports journalist in the area down there. He regularly rubbed players the wrong way by essentially making up stuff to see what would stick. I'm not sure why he'd have credible inside info in the Wolves organization or in Butler's camp. That said...it's totally believable. This organization is going from the most promising upswing to the biggest failed launch as fast as anything I can remember. Well...since the 2018 Twins at least.

[KirbyDome89]

 

To be fair, this article is a re-hash of the Chicago Sun Times article which is written by Joe Cowley, a well-known hack of a sports journalist in the area down there. He regularly rubbed players the wrong way by essentially making up stuff to see what would stick. I'm not sure why he'd have credible inside info in the Wolves organization or in Butler's camp. That said...it's totally believable. This organization is going from the most promising upswing to the biggest failed launch as fast as anything I can remember. Well...since the 2018 Twins at least.

I wasn't aware of who Joe Cowley is so maybe it's more smoke than fire. BR was reporting the same thing and both Zach Lowe and Russillo have mentioned in separate podcasts that the Wolves locker room wasn't on good terms. I don't find the report hard to believe either, but you're right, offseason drama is always a good way to draw eyes. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I kind of hope this is true.  Trading him to Boston opens up all sorts of options.  

 

Ask for Brown and the 2019 pick that will likely be the Kings pick and I sign off.

As much as I hate Boston area teams, if Butler isn't going to resign and the Wolves can manage to snag that type of return I'd consider it a W. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not a huge NBA guy.....and some of what is discussed here is why. 

 

As a 'wolves fan because I have friends who are:

 

I'd definitely deal Butler....100%. He's a FA to be, and they have zero shot to win next year. I'd be aiming for 2-3 years from now, frankly. Every decision should be about that. Probably starting with finding a coach that cares about development.....

[Mr. Brooks]

Not a huge NBA guy.....and some of what is discussed here is why.

 

As a 'wolves fan because I have friends who are:

 

I'd definitely deal Butler....100%. He's a FA to be, and they have zero shot to win next year. I'd be aiming for 2-3 years from now, frankly. Every decision should be about that. Probably starting with finding a coach that cares about development.....

I'd be aiming for a lot longer than 2-3 years. Golden State isn't slowing down anytime soon, and Lebron signed with LA for 4 years.

Lebron + 4 random dudes is still better than anything the Wolves can build.

So their absolute ceiling the next 4 years doesn't even include getting to the Conference championship game.

I'd go full tank and hope to have a couple young lottery picks to compliment Towns by the time the Wiggins contract expires.

 

And yes, all of that is why the NBA is pretty lame.

I think 8 franchises have won more than 90% of all the NBA titles. The rest of the franchises are just a feeder league for those 8 that have a chance to cycle dynasties.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'd be aiming for a lot longer than 2-3 years. Golden State isn't slowing down anytime soon, and Lebron signed with LA for 4 years.
Lebron + 4 random dudes is still better than anything the Wolves can build.
So their absolute ceiling the next 4 years doesn't even include getting to the Conference championship game.
I'd go full tank and hope to have a couple young lottery picks to compliment Towns by the time the Wiggins contract expires.

And yes, all of that is why the NBA is pretty lame.
I think 8 franchises have won more than 90% of all the NBA titles. The rest of the franchises are just a feeder league for those 8 that have a chance to cycle dynasties.

Agreed, the Wolves face an uphill battle in the West, but I don't think that necessarily means they should pack it in. Nobody in the league can touch GS. It's a bummer that their rise coincided with other teams in the conference ascending as well, but I'm not sure a prolonged tank is the answer.

 

What happens if after that 4+ year period they still aren't favorites to make the conference finals? Continue tanking? If cap space or Butler's refusal to stay forces them to reassess that's one thing, but IMO they should be making every effort to mend the locker room situation and make things work before even talking about blowing the team up. 

 

If the organization wants a shake up, relieving Thibs of both roles would be a nice start. Just saying...

[Mr. Brooks]

Agreed, the Wolves face an uphill battle in the West, but I don't think that necessarily means they should pack it in. Nobody in the league can touch GS. It's a bummer that their rise coincided with other teams in the conference ascending as well, but I'm not sure a prolonged tank is the answer.

 

What happens if after that 4+ year period they still aren't favorites to make the conference finals? Continue tanking? If cap space or Butler's refusal to stay forces them to reassess that's one thing, but IMO they should be making every effort to mend the locker room situation and make things work before even talking about blowing the team up.

 

If the organization wants a shake up, relieving Thibs of both roles would be a nice start. Just saying...

I guess it depends what you mean by make things work?

If that means fighting for a 4 or 5 seed every year, knowing you're 1 or 2 and done, sure, they can keep the band together.

I'm in the championship or bust camp though, and that ain't happening with this group. With no lottery picks, where are you once Butler gets old?

Superstars aren't going to come play in Minnesota, not by choice.

And with Wiggins awful contract, they likely can't trade for anymore.

That leaves lottery picks as the only viable way for this market to get superstars. You don't get lottery picks by staying mediocre.

 

Keeping the band together hoping for mediocrity just delays the inevitable, IMO. I'd at least start now to try to time the end of the rebuild for when GS and LA are finishing their windows, rather than just starting it then.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I guess it depends what you mean by make things work?
If that means fighting for a 4 or 5 seed every year, knowing you're 1 or 2 and done, sure, they can keep the band together.
I'm in the championship or bust camp though, and that ain't happening with this group. With no lottery picks, where are you once Butler gets old?
Superstars aren't going to come play in Minnesota, not by choice.
And with Wiggins awful contract, they likely can't trade for anymore.
That leaves lottery picks as the only viable way for this market to get superstars. You don't get lottery picks by staying mediocre.

Keeping the band together hoping for mediocrity just delays the inevitable, IMO. I'd at least start now to try to time the end of the rebuild for when GS and LA are finishing their windows, rather than just starting it then.

I mean exhaust every avenue in trying to find a way to get Butler, Towns, and Wiggins on the same page. When Jimmy was healthy last year this team was near the top of the West. They aren't as far from serious contention as that Houston series would have us believe. 

 

I agree, superstars are incredibly difficult to obtain, so I'm not sure why there's a rush to move on from one legitimate superstar (Butler), with Towns only a few steps behind. IMO the Wolves have at least 2 in the hand, so I'm not a huge fan of giving that up for the chance to draft another player of that caliber. Admittedly I'm not high on Wiggins; he's exhibit A as to why playing the lottery doesn't always work out in your favor. 

 

Maybe we have different definitions of mediocrity. With Bulter, Towns, and Wiggins all playing as expected, not necessarily hitting their ceiling, just playing at a level we know they're capable of, it isn't a stretch to say that the only teams objectively better than the Wolves in the West are GS and Houston. 

 

There's no such thing as perfect timing with these decisions. If the goal is to wait out GS and LA then what do you do with Utah and Denver? Both those teams are loading up on young talent. What if they're elite level teams by the end of that run? Do the Wolves continue to call it quits? 

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean exhaust every avenue in trying to find a way to get Butler, Towns, and Wiggins on the same page. When Jimmy was healthy last year this team was near the top of the West. They aren't as far from serious contention as that Houston series would have us believe.

 

I agree, superstars are incredibly difficult to obtain, so I'm not sure why there's a rush to move on from one legitimate superstar (Butler), with Towns only a few steps behind. IMO the Wolves have at least 2 in the hand, so I'm not a huge fan of giving that up for the chance to draft another player of that caliber. Admittedly I'm not high on Wiggins; he's exhibit A as to why playing the lottery doesn't always work out in your favor.

 

Maybe we have different definitions of mediocrity. With Bulter, Towns, and Wiggins all playing as expected, not necessarily hitting their ceiling, just playing at a level we know they're capable of, it isn't a stretch to say that the only teams objectively better than the Wolves in the West are GS and Houston.

 

There's no such thing as perfect timing with these decisions. If the goal is to wait out GS and LA then what do you do with Utah and Denver? Both those teams are loading up on young talent. What if they're elite level teams by the end of that run? Do the Wolves continue to call it quits?

Even with Butler healthy, they still had zero shot at winning a championship.

I just don't see how you close that gap, especially with LA leapfrogging them.

[TheLeviathan]

Keeping Jimmy Butler seems like the first step towards screwing this whole thing up.

[KirbyDome89]

A healthy GS leaves everybody with an almost 0% chance. There's always going to be a better team. The solution can't always be to gamble on the lottery and hope to time the ascension perfectly. 

 

Aside from giving up Towns, I'm open to nearly any move available to make room for Jimmy. If he doesn't want to stay, then they can move on to the decision of whether or not to trade him. Willingly letting a superstar walk, while banking on finding another in the lottery isn't any more appealing than dealing with GS or LA. 

[Mr. Brooks]

A healthy GS leaves everybody with an almost 0% chance. There's always going to be a better team. The solution can't always be to gamble on the lottery and hope to time the ascension perfectly.

 

Aside from giving up Towns, I'm open to nearly any move available to make room for Jimmy. If he doesn't want to stay, then they can move on to the decision of whether or not to trade him. Willingly letting a superstar walk, while banking on finding another in the lottery isn't any more appealing than dealing with GS or LA.

The better team won't always be as good as GS is right now though.

And you need a third star to win a championship.

They took a shot, hoping that Wiggins would realize his potential and be that third star, it didn't happen.

I applaud them for taking that shot, but I think they also need to be self aware enough to realize that it didn't work, and it's time for a new plan.

How do you propose they go about procuring that third star?

Or are you just happy with a few years of competent basketball, even without a shot at a title? I'm not disparaging that position, just trying to get clarity on where you're at.

[TheLeviathan]

It's also possible the Butler/Thibs combo is holding KAT and Wig back.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

The better team won't always be as good as GS is right now though.
And you need a third star to win a championship.
They took a shot, hoping that Wiggins would realize his potential and be that third star, it didn't happen.
I applaud them for taking that shot, but I think they also need to be self aware enough to realize that it didn't work, and it's time for a new plan.
How do you propose they go about procuring that third star?
Or are you just happy with a few years of competent basketball, even without a shot at a title? I'm not disparaging that position, just trying to get clarity on where you're at.

No, likely not, but LA, Boston, Philly, and maybe Utah and Denver look like they'll be good for years to come. 

 

I'm not arguing that the Wolves are in a good situation. If Towns can't recruit anybody to MN (likely) and nobody is willing to take Wiggins (likely) they don't have a ton of options other than drafting talent. 

 

I don't think there's any chance Butler stays here if both Wiggins and Towns are on the team; hell, he might just be on the way out regardless. I got my hopes up about the Wolves trading for Kyrie last summer when he was interested in going to MN. In a perfect world they could make a Wiggins/Kyrie swap work and roll the dice on Butler & Kyrie staying. If both leave then they're back to tanking, and at least they're out from under that Wiggins contract. That's the pipe dream. 

 

If Butler bounces then yeah, playing the lottery might be their only hope, and it seems likely they'll go that route. If he's willing to sign an extension then I think the Wolves have to hope Wiggins becomes that third star and supplement around those 3. It's far from ideal, but that's the bed they made by giving him that extension.

 

Is it likely that the Wolves or any other team supplant GS during that time? No, but again that applies to every other team as well. My only disagreement is the notion that because they won't be a favorite to reach the WCF they shouldn't try to compete. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

It's also possible the Butler/Thibs combo is holding KAT and Wig back.  

I'd buy that Thibs negatively impacts their offensive games. I'm not sure there's an excuse for the defense either pretends to play. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd buy that Thibs negatively impacts their offensive games. I'm not sure there's an excuse for the defense either pretends to play. 

 

No, but we sometimes forget how young they are.  I just don't think Thibs is a development coach.

[Mr. Brooks]

Butler turned down the Wolves 4/110 extension offer.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Butler turned down the Wolves 4/110 extension offer.

 

That was expected.  Though I still think the odds of getting him to stay here are pretty much zero after this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

That was expected. Though I still think the odds of getting him to stay here are pretty much zero after this year.

Well I've long believed that the Wolves are the worst run organization in all of pro sports, so I guess it won't surprise me if they actually let Butler walk for nothing.

[KirbyDome89]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/9/11/17847068/luol-deng-minnesota-timberwolves-tom-thibodeau-jimmy-butler

 

Get hyped....

 

Somebody call Kirk Hinrich.