Article: What's Wrong with the Twins? A Fizzling Core

[DocBauer]

Throwing my hat in the ring here on a variety of topics, FWIW.

 

1) Injuries, weather etc: Yes, all teams are affected by these. Agreed. But no batting practice the first few weeks, and missed games has to have at least some affect on routine and continuity. No Polanco, no Santana, Castro trying to play injured and now out for the year, Mauer, Buxton and Sano all to the DL...this All has to have some affect.

 

2) Bullpen usage: I don't think Molitor is a bad manager overall. But he absolutely rides certain guys too much. Not even sure this is open for debate. If you're down by 3, maybe you save Reed or Pressly and throw someone else. Maybe Molitor is too much of a competitor at times and wants to win them all???

 

3) Sano's weight: He's a large man. He will always be a large man. He carries his weight well. His weight doesn't affect his arm or his ability to hit. (Made a tremendous play a couple days ago very few could make). But long term health and flexibility in the field, it should be a concern. Maturity and another off season not recovering from surgery could help.

 

4) Sano and Buxton overall: To the heart of the article. Perhaps I'm too much of an optomist. Perhaps I'm too patient. Perhaps I just have a different perspective having been a Twins fan for 47 years. I'm as disappointed and frustrated as anyone. But maybe wants and wishes and the hype train skew perspective. These guys were at the absolute top of the prospect rankings for a reason. We've seen what they are each capable of. Is it possible, as disappointed and frustrated as we are, that there is a lot of over reaction?

 

Buxton starts slow, which he has done before, but migraines or not, what happens without the toe injury? Is he looking like the last half+ of 2017? What if Sano doesn't have to spend the off season dealing with leg surgery recovery and off the field controversy? Does he look more like his past self? (Maybe the hamstring doesn't happen because he got even a little more work in). Maybe? Yep. But these are factors to consider.

 

So at 24yo each, I believe, they are busts and we should move On? Despite immense talent and potential, not everyone is a Trout or Harper (or Mauer) who becomes an instant star at 21-22yo.

 

Could they both bust and never figure it out? Yep. Could they also have strong 2nd halves, quality off seasons, and begin to really shine in 2019 as 25yo stars? ABSOLUTELY!

[DocBauer]

Sorry, but after today's game and another "feel good" thread here on TD, and something I posted there, I just have to make another comment/comparison.

 

Every player/person is different in their development. Arguments and debates aside, I think we can all agree on that at least. Not so long ago, 2016 to be exact, with additional moments here and there in 2017 and a brief rough stretch early thjs season after a couple good starts, where Berrios...the savior and potential ACE of the rotation was either a bust, or lacking the upside we had so longed for. An ERA over 8 in 2016. He was much improved in 2017. And his numbers, in virtually every single category, have improved this season, his age 24 season.

 

Can we compare Berrios to Buxton and Sano directly? Absolutely not. Hunter didn't "explode" until his age 26 season in 2001, 2 years older than Buxton now. (With a trip or 2 down to AAA). Gaetti, the 2nd greatest 3B in Twins history arrived with HR power and hands of stone before turning in to a star player. But it wasn't until his 5th season, age 27-28, where he produced his first OPS above .724. Sano, despite his struggles this season...i was wrong he's 25yo now...has a career OPS of .828 even with his current struggles. His previous 3 season's of OPS are .916, .781, .859.

 

Just some stuff to think about.

[Kelly Vance]

 

Sano came into this season like a guy that doesn't care, overweight and nonchalant. He has played like it, tisking after strikeouts, injury prone from the extra weight. 

 

Buxton looks like he forgot every lesson he learned last year about hitting. Rowson's fault? I doubt it. He still steps up to the plate looking like he doesn't have a plan. 

 

Dozier is the worst disappointment, as mentioned elsewhere. Playing with little apparent motivation. In a contract year?? Really?? 

 

LoMo also has disappointed, but it could just be a bad luck acquisition. 

 

My fix remains the same.

Bring up Navaretto (or a AAA C), Wade, Rooker, and Gordon.

Move out Wilson, Grossman, Adrianza, and LaMarre. 

Get those better bats in the lineup. Even if they sputter, they're no worse than than the guys in the lineup today, and all of them have higher ceilings than the current placeholders. 

 

Right now is the time to make these moves, before the current group drags the team deeper into this hole. If the Twins are out of contention by the All Star break, then 2018 will play out like I predicted, another year for testing new players. This team still hasn't pulled together, which also should bode the end of Molitor as manager. I wanted Francona so bad...!

can Wade play CF?

 

[Jerr]

From the Twins on Face Book and their upcoming series:  Rosario. Trout. Escobar. Ohtani. LAA vs Twins: 6/8-10. 

 

Says a lot about our Twins this year,

with Rosario and Escobar being highlighted.

[Thrylos]

 

Sorry, but after today's game and another "feel good" thread here on TD, and something I posted there, I just have to make another comment/comparison.

Every player/person is different in their development. Arguments and debates aside, I think we can all agree on that at least. Not so long ago, 2016 to be exact, with additional moments here and there in 2017 and a brief rough stretch early thjs season after a couple good starts, where Berrios...the savior and potential ACE of the rotation was either a bust, or lacking the upside we had so longed for. An ERA over 8 in 2016. He was much improved in 2017. And his numbers, in virtually every single category, have improved this season, his age 24 season.

Can we compare Berrios to Buxton and Sano directly? Absolutely not. Hunter didn't "explode" until his age 26 season in 2001, 2 years older than Buxton now. (With a trip or 2 down to AAA). Gaetti, the 2nd greatest 3B in Twins history arrived with HR power and hands of stone before turning in to a star player. But it wasn't until his 5th season, age 27-28, where he produced his first OPS above .724. Sano, despite his struggles this season...i was wrong he's 25yo now...has a career OPS of .828 even with his current struggles. His previous 3 season's of OPS are .916, .781, .859.

Just some stuff to think about.

 

Absolutely.   Here is some additional food for thought:

 

 

OPS at age 25 season:

 

Corey Koskie: .435
Dan Gladden: .577
Brian Dozier: .603
Doug Mientkiewicz: .655
Gary Gaetti: .665
Kirby Puckett: .715

 

So Sano is doing better than all but the Hall of Famer in the list, and he is a good 3 day hitting streak away from passing Puckett's OPS

 

[Thrylos]

 

From the Twins on Face Book and their upcoming series:  Rosario. Trout. Escobar. Ohtani. LAA vs Twins: 6/8-10. 

 

Says a lot about our Twins this year,

with Rosario and Escobar being highlighted.

 

Of course.  The Twins are Eddies' team

[Kelly Vance]

When you go with a youth movement, you have to be patient. You cannot expect young players to be Willy Mays.  Young pitchers improve, then regress, then improve again. 

Hitters have slumps. Other teams have scouts looking for ways to pitch us, beat us, and they sometimes exploit flaws. 

 

Bux needs to hit to the opposite field more. Sano too.  But they don't deserve the kind of criticism leveled by TD.   Both have been injured. Sano gets criticized for showing up overweight, when he had leg surgery in the off season.... what was he supposed to do, take up jogging on one leg?  Bux had migraines.... then a broken toe. Yet people say he sucks.  How unfair. 

 

I see a young team that can still pull it together in the second half. And the one thing I KNOW is true about this year.  These guys deserve better fans.

 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

From the Twins on Face Book and their upcoming series:  Rosario. Trout. Escobar. Ohtani. LAA vs Twins: 6/8-10. 

 

Says a lot about our Twins this year,

with Rosario and Escobar being highlighted.

Ohtani might not play, as the Angels may put him on the DL.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-to-miss-a-start-for-blister/c-280336150

[jimbo92107]

 

can Wade play CF?

Listed as OF in his profile, speed 55. They're calling him a fourth outfielder, so he's competing with Grossman and LaMarre. Should be a better hitter and fielder than either. Also Wade should have more power than Granite, but less speed. 

Edited June 8, 2018 by jimbo92107

[Thrylos]

 

Listed as OF in his profile, speed 55. They're calling him a fourth outfielder, so he's competing with Grossman and LaMarre. Should be a better hitter and fielder than either. Also Wade should have more power than Granite, but less speed. 

 

Wade's problem is that he is yet another lefty OF.

[jimbo92107]

 

Wade's problem is that he is yet another lefty OF.

Good point, but there's still more R/H pitchers in the league, and if he can hit a lick against lefties, then it's not much of a knock. 

[Han Joelo]

I believe Buxton and Sano can continue to improve, and maybe even lead this team to the promised land.

 

I also believe that a big reason the team is struggling this year is because they have not yet reached that point...for a variety of reasons.

 

The two beliefs are not mutually exclusive.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Good point, but there's still more R/H pitchers in the league, and if he can hit a lick against lefties, then it's not much of a knock. 

 

He cannot hit a lick against LHP:

 

.578 OPS against AA LHP vs .890 OPS against AA RHP

[jimbo92107]

 

He cannot hit a lick against LHP:

 

.578 OPS against AA LHP vs .890 OPS against AA RHP

Then I guess we know what Wade needs to work on. Kepler figured out how to hit lefties, so why not?

[Riverbrian]

My idea is a little off the wall. 

 

Instead of trading Sano and Buxton out of frustration at the low end of their potential value.

 

How about we just keep them on the roster and manage the expectation that they are the pair to lead us to the promised land until they play like they are the pair to lead us to the promised land.  

 

They are still cheap... Keep Sano as a 3B/1B and make him compete against a 3B and 1B with talent for playing time. Make him earn it... make them all earn it. 

 

Keep Buxton as an OF with Kepler and Rosario but bring in someone better than Grossman to compete with all 3 of them for playing time. Make Buxton earn every day playing time by actual performance instead of what you think or hope his performance should be. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Listed as OF in his profile, speed 55. They're calling him a fourth outfielder, so he's competing with Grossman and LaMarre. Should be a better hitter and fielder than either. Also Wade should have more power than Granite, but less speed. 

Thanks. Reason I asked is I don't mind giving different guys a cup of coffee. A little incentive is a good thing.

 

But they gotta be able to play.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[twinsbaby]

My question to this topic: Why people can't call Buxton and Sano are busts?

 

I think if you are supposed to they are NOT busts, then you also need to give Vargas the same word. He is still young enough.

 

And I think everybody knows Sano’s age is a BIG question when he signed at 2009.

Edited June 9, 2018 by twinsbaby

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sano's defense according to Fangraphs at 3B this season: ranked 55th out of 59 players (min. 60 Innings) with a -3.1 Def rating.

 

Meanwhile, Dozier ranks 30th out of 56 players at 2B with a +0.3 rating.

FYI, "Def" is probably the wrong stat to use for this purpose. It is a counting stat so it punishes Sano for his DL stint and playing 1B/DH.

 

The more proper comparison would be UZR/150. The ranks may still look similar, but it is just best practice.

 

Use the fielding leaderboard, filter by 3B, set a 200 inning minimum to get Sano on the list, and sort by UZR/150. Sano still ranks 32 out of 34, with a -25.7 mark. His career mark is only -3.2, though, so is it small sample or is he getting notably worse? He was at -0.6 last year. All of these are pretty small samples -- Sano only has about 1300 innings at 3B for his career, which is about the equivalent of one full season for a guy like Dozier at 2B.

 

By the same measure, Dozier ranks 19th out of 32 this year. But is very close to average at -1.5 (and only -0.1 for his career).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Absolutely. Here is some additional food for thought:

 

 

OPS at age 25 season:

 

Corey Koskie: .435

Dan Gladden: .577

Brian Dozier: .603

Doug Mientkiewicz: .655

Gary Gaetti: .665

Kirby Puckett: .715

 

So Sano is doing better than all but the Hall of Famer in the list, and he is a good 3 day hitting streak away from passing Puckett's OPS

So cherry picking mediocre age 25 seasons from the past means what exactly? Still means Sano is mediocre. Do you expect Sano to add significant power to his current game like Dozier, Puckett, and Gaetti did to improve their OPS figures after age 25? Or post a 12.3% career K rate like Mientkiewicz? (I'll ignore Koskie's 35 PA and Gladden's 72 here too.) Edited June 9, 2018 by spycake

[killertwinfan]

Trade/rent Dozier to a contender and bring up Gordon. 

[mikelink45]

I have nothing to disagree with in this article, but I want to emphasize that when a team struggles they look to their veteran leadership and that is Dozier.  Escobar is doing what Dozier should do.  Tell me how Dozier at lead off is helping us. 

 

Our catchers are a negative, Logan Morrison had a nice spurt, but not a nice season and Grossman gets all kinds of plaudits for his veteran play in a run down that let Rosario score today.  The fact is the first baseman screwed up and did not throw to 2B for a force.  It was not that outstanding baserunner - Grossman, but a poor 1B play.  Yet Grossman remains a key roster player.

 

Adrianza should be on the bench  which means Gordon should be starting, and LaMarre and Cave join him as players the FO acquired instead of promoting from our own minor leagues.  

 

I have a grade of C- for our new FO so I have to add them to the list. 

[by jiminy]

 

Not.So.True.

 

The "vastly improved" pitching staff is 9th in AL in ERA.  In 2017, it was also 9th in the AL in ERA.

 

So Not.That.Improved.

 

Unless the pitching is in the top 5 in the AL, no matter who hits how, this team will be around .500 at best

 

Hell yeah, 9th is vastly improved! You're forgetting that two years ago they were the worst pitching team in the league, by a full run. There was as big a distance between them and the second worst team as between the second worst team and the best. They were awful, and had a long, long way to go to reach mediocre. Making that big an improvement in two years is nothing short of amazing.

 

And yes, average pitching is enough to win a division, if your hitting is the best in the league, as it was for the entire second half last year! They led the league in runs scored for the second half, and if memory serves were fifth for the entire year. And they had all the players from last year returning, plus Morrison and a full season of Sano.

 

The pitching is fine. If they were hitting like last year they would be in first place. The reason for their crash this year is that the run-scoring has cratered. And while many players have underperformed compared to last year's second half, I would agree that the most worrisome are Buxton and Sano. If a championship team is going to emerge from this group it's going to be built around them. The supporting players are in place. But those two are the potential superstars. Their regression is very troubling. They are young enough and talented that they can still do it. They've done it before. But unless and until they reach their potential, this team is a building without a foundation.

 

[by jiminy]

I would suggest keeping Buxton and Sano in mind when people get impatient about promoting Gordon, or Gonsalves, or whoever the savior du jour is. I never understood it when people rag on the Twins for taking their time with development. I've seen many cases where people were rushed for what looked to me like marketing reasons, to placate fans who didn't have much reason to buy a ticket otherwise during the down years. And I have seen it backfire. Gomez was brought up too early to placate people angry for losing Santana. Hicks was brought up too early. Then they traded Hicks and Revere and committed to playing Buxton whether he was ready or not. Was that wise? I don't see it. Best case, we've burned through his service time with poor production, sending him to free agency when he gets good. Worst case, we're derailed his development and he may never recover. I'm not saying he won't! But it might not be till he's about to become very expensive.

 

Personally I'd rather have Sano and Buxton in the minors, learning to recognize and lay off outside curve balls, than watch them struggle up here. It's lose-lose-lose: the Twins' present is worse, their future is more expensive or worse because they leave; and their development seems to be being harmed by it.

 

My guess is Gordon has plenty to learn still, too. And Gonsalves. I wouldn't mind seeing Romero work on a changeup in the minors a little more, too. I just don't see the harm in playing the long game. That way, every player plays better when he gets here, AND stays here for more of his prime.

 

Is it really more fun to watch young players looking overmatched, while knowing that even if they do reach their potential, you just traded a year of peak value down the road for a year of AAA-quality play now?

 

To do that, you have to be pretty damn sure their development will proceed much faster in the majors than in AAA. And I totally concede that might be the case. So If I see someone struggling in the majors, I try to give the coaches the benefit of the doubt. The coaches know much better than I what helps a young player learn.

But I would not join the clamor to bring up someone too early, just to mollify fans of a losing team. If they do rush people because of public pressure, just to sell tickets, we all lose.

 

I'm not saying I know when a player should be brought up. Who knows, maybe there isn't a single decent curveball in AAA, and the only way Sano and Buxton can learn to lay off them is to face them in MLB. But I highly doubt that.

 

I think it's much more likely that the team was judged in win-now mode, and a potential stud who wasn't quite ready was seen as having more to contribute right now, even with unfinished development, than the alternatives.

 

I'm not saying that's wrong, either. But if you trade the future for the present, and you don't win in the present, it's lose-lose. You lose games now, because they can't hit an outside curveball. You lose games in the future, because they are playing for the Yankees a year early, or you're tying up a quarter of your payroll in them a year early. Or, worst case, you stunt their development and they never figure it out.

 

A mid-market team needs to maximize its assets. Imagine Sano and Buxton were arriving now, with perfectly honed plate discipline, and six years of cheap stardom ahead. Would the past three and a half years have been worth that sacrifice? You could make a case that last year, yes -- they would not have made the playoffs without Sano's first half and Buxton's second half. But man, wouldn't it be nice to see them starting out now, at their peak? Not getting promoted till they proved they could lay off an outside curveball? And learning to do it?

 

What if Carlos Gomez had not skipped AAA, and instead spent two full learning his craft and earning his promotions by demonstrating consistent plate discipline? What would his career have been like? Are we doing that to Byron Buxton?

 

It's always nerve-wracking, and you never know what's right: are they waiting too long? Are you bringing them up to early? I think, from afar, there's no way to really know. We don't know what the coaches are working with them on in the minors. We don't know if a plea from a major league manager for help made them grab someone too early. I'm sure that happens. Just as commitment to veterans probably holds back a young player who is ready.

 

Of the two, the second error has less cost to the team, though, as you still retain their full six years of service time, while milking last remaining value out of the veteran's contract, whereas bringing the up early you sacrifice both the unused value of veteran option, and the best years of the young player's service time on the back end.

 

But my main point is, no one knows for sure, and the people who have the best idea are the ones who work with them every day, not us. So I just don't ever get it when people express contempt for a team holding someone back too long. How could it be more obvious to us than an actual coach? And what's the downside of erring on the conservative side? You have better odds of making their six affordable years be at a consistently higher level.

 

Sure, you may get additional years from them. But once they're in free agency, you're paying market value. Whether you pay them, or someone else, it's fungible. The way to outperform other teams with the same money (or in our case, with less money) is to get more than market value production. And that means maximizing the years you have players at below cost. Below-market-rate production is the key to a winning team. And calling up players too early is the single biggest way to blow that. It's almost never a long-term win.

 

If you're in a playoff race, and you bring up your stud pitcher early from the minors to fortify your bullpen, absolutely! But if you're early in a rebuild, and your fans are getting impatient, no. 

 

If Romero has a major league fastball and can get people out now, and you're in a playoff race, sure. But if the cost is, his command could be better, and his changeup could be better, and one more year of tutelage could be the difference between a guy who can hold his own and a guy who is lights out, bringing him up early has a cost. I'm not saying don't bring him up, when you're a handful of games back of the Indians and the alternative is Phil Hughes. Just, there's a cost.

 

So don't yell at the Twins for developing their talent slowly if it's too maximize their potential. That could simultaneously give us more years at their peak performance AND make their peak higher. It was worth it last year to go for it -- beating they Yankees in a one-game playoff would have made my decade. But if they continue to fall out of the race, Sano and Buxton are back in AAA in three weeks, I for one would have no problem with that. I'd rather see them later, looking unstoppable, than watch their service time wear down while they're clearly overmatched.

 

And if Romero starts to get hammered once he gets scouted thoroughly, send him back down, too. Play veterans like May and Duffey and Pineda this year, and bring Gonsalves and Romero and Rooker and Gordon up when their flaws are polished away. If Gordon has nothing left to learn, fantastic. But don't get impatient and grab him just because we're frustrated with the alternatives.

 

So why do people curse slow development so vehemently? Who are these players who were called up too late from the minors and it ruined a season or destroyed their careers? I'm not being sarcasting, or questioning that it happens. I just honestly can't think of any.

 

I remember getting really impatient for Anthony Slama, who seemed to have nothing left to prove in the minors. The coaches thought his stuff wouldn't play against major league hitters, and apparently the were right.

 

I remember calls to free Johan Santana, but that was from the bullpen -- and I agree, once you've started his service time, then use him! You can't argue that working him in slowly from the bullpen harmed Santana's development -- clearly he turned out alright! But you could make a case that we gave up a year or two of Cy Young level Santana because he WASN'T still in the minors during those bullpen years. I would sure love to have had him around in 2008 and 2009!

 

I remember people getting impatient for people like Adam Brett Walker, who never panned out. And I remember stunningly early promotions for people like Mauer, Kubel, and Morneau, who did. So my feeling is, they probably know what they are doing. And they CERTAINLY know better than me. So my conclusion is, be patient, and don't demand your gardeners harvest  fruit before it's ripe.

[yarnivek1972]

Hell yeah, 9th is vastly improved! You're forgetting that two years ago they were the worst pitching team in the league, by a full run. There was as big a distance between them and the second worst team as between the second worst team and the best. They were awful, and had a long, long way to go to reach mediocre. Making that big an improvement in two years is nothing short of amazing.

 

And yes, average pitching is enough to win a division, if your hitting is the best in the league, as it was for the entire second half last year! They led the league in runs scored for the second half, and if memory serves were fifth for the entire year. And they had all the players from last year returning, plus Morrison and a full season of Sano.

 

The pitching is fine. If they were hitting like last year they would be in first place. The reason for their crash this year is that the run-scoring has cratered. And while many players have underperformed compared to last year's second half, I would agree that the most worrisome are Buxton and Sano. If a championship team is going to emerge from this group it's going to be built around them. The supporting players are in place. But those two are the potential superstars. Their regression is very troubling. They are young enough and talented that they can still do it. They've done it before. But unless and until they reach their potential, this team is a building without a foundation.

The odds of him getting hurt again this year are pretty high. There’s a reason why there aren’t many three hundred pound infielders.