Article: What's Wrong with the Twins? A Fizzling Core

[lukeduke1980]

 

That's league average for start length.....

Then we'll probably stay an average team

[jimbo92107]

Sano came into this season like a guy that doesn't care, overweight and nonchalant. He has played like it, tisking after strikeouts, injury prone from the extra weight. 

 

Buxton looks like he forgot every lesson he learned last year about hitting. Rowson's fault? I doubt it. He still steps up to the plate looking like he doesn't have a plan. 

 

Dozier is the worst disappointment, as mentioned elsewhere. Playing with little apparent motivation. In a contract year?? Really?? 

 

LoMo also has disappointed, but it could just be a bad luck acquisition. 

 

My fix remains the same.

Bring up Navaretto (or a AAA C), Wade, Rooker, and Gordon.

Move out Wilson, Grossman, Adrianza, and LaMarre. 

Get those better bats in the lineup. Even if they sputter, they're no worse than than the guys in the lineup today, and all of them have higher ceilings than the current placeholders. 

 

Right now is the time to make these moves, before the current group drags the team deeper into this hole. If the Twins are out of contention by the All Star break, then 2018 will play out like I predicted, another year for testing new players. This team still hasn't pulled together, which also should bode the end of Molitor as manager. I wanted Francona so bad...!

[Dantes929]

 

The dodgers are overcoming.... With almost nothing from the best pitcher in the game, and losing seager... And more.

30-31   Now take away Kemp and Grandal.    Kershaw has given them 6 of 8 quality starts and has gone 7 in half those.      I am by no means laying all the blame for the Twins record on injuries.     I'm just saying even the good teams aren't 2 deep at every position.   Sometimes you get lucky and the subs perform even better than the starters (Escobar vs Sano) but generally there is a fair dropoff between starters and subs at most positions on most teams.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The entire staff has an xFIP of 4.14. That's 8th in the AL. Not terrible. But we aren't going to compete for the playoffs without a high powered offense in this scenario. 

Of course. But we always knew a strong and high-powered offense would be essential to any winning model in 2018. The pitchers are doing their part and too many hitters aren't. 

[bighat]

 

True. Or the Twins are smart and offer him a big extension this offseason. And you get those age 28-21 years on the cheap.

 

Yeah. The problem with that (and I think you'll agree) is that the Twins still don't know what they have with Bux. So we can either sign a guy who might have talent to a long-term deal, or just give up on him and let someone else give it a go. They simply have to keep running him out there to figure out what they've got, but when Buxton's circling the drain at the plate, he seems to only get worse every plate appearance. The Twins are painted into a corner with Bux. The only scenario where the Twins win is if Buxton improves, and that's gotta be soon, as in July 2018 soon. Oh yeah, and the Twins are still trying to win every ball game which further complicates things.

Edited June 7, 2018 by bighat

[bluechipper]

How about Max Kepler too? Is he ever going to break out, or is he just going to continue hanging around league average hitting?

 

Kepler isn't on the same level of disappointment as Sano and Buxton, but I expected more from him.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

and wonder if 7 a.m. LA time is too early to start drinking.

 

Its noon somewhere!!!

[Blackjack]

 

 when Buxton's circling the drain at the plate,

 

Thanks, this thread needed a little humor!!!   

 

 

[d-mac]

 

Check B-R.  The Cubs are 2nd in the NL in ERA, the measurement I used for the Twins...

 

Even the "surprise" teams are highly ranked in ERA in their leagues 

Seattle (5th), Atlanta (6th), Philly (4th) 

 

The cubs up to this point have been very lucky. Their xFIP is actually worse than the Twins. They can't sustain that outperformance for an entire season.

[ChrisKnutson]

The Diamondbacks are scuffling and dealing with lots of injuries, but at least they had the sense of urgency to make a trade for Jon Jay. Unlike the Twins.

 

 

As much as I’d like to complain about Sano and Molitor, I’m much more concerned about the organization’s choice not to win.

[d-mac]

 

Of course. But we always knew a strong and high-powered offense would be essential to any winning model in 2018. The pitchers are doing their part and too many hitters aren't. 

 

Fair assessment. But I think people are overselling the pitching improvement significantly. Odorizzi and Lynn have xFIPs in the mid-to high fours and even Romero's is like 4.14. 

 

Bullpen has been improved substantially, but we'll see how long that can continue with Molitor's misuse of Presley, Reed, and Hildy. 

[yarnivek1972]

How about Max Kepler too? Is he ever going to break out, or is he just going to continue hanging around league average hitting?Kepler isn't on the same level of disappointment as Sano and Buxton, but I expected more from him.

I think he needs to learn to use all fields. I think that has caused his ridiculously low career .266 BABIP. He makes contact at a solid enough rate, draws his share of walks, hits line drives at a good clip. The next step is using all fields. Given the way he seems to have solved lhp in one offseason, I certainly think it is a step he is capable of making.

[gocgo]

 

I think you missed my point. I'm actually in agreement that it is wrong to blame Buxton's problems on mismanagement and injuries. I think the player needs to shoulder most of this.

We are in agreement.

[bighat]

 

How about Max Kepler too? Is he ever going to break out, or is he just going to continue hanging around league average hitting? Kepler isn't on the same level of disappointment as Sano and Buxton, but I expected more from him.

 

He's a decent 3rd outfielder and a nice complimentary piece. I don't think any MLB writers or prognosticators every predicted he'd be a "breakout star". He's a victim of being an average young player on team desperate for the next big star. We shouldn't expect more than a .256, 19 HR, and 72 RBI from him, that's the player he is.

[d-mac]

 

How about Max Kepler too? Is he ever going to break out, or is he just going to continue hanging around league average hitting? Kepler isn't on the same level of disappointment as Sano and Buxton, but I expected more from him.

 

His batted ball profile has never been very good. Over his career only 16.7% of his balls in play are liners and more than 10% of fly balls are of the infield variety. He is setting career worsts in both categories this year. Frankly, he needs to re-tool his swing. He needs to generate more loft. 

[Thrylos]

 

The cubs up to this point have been very lucky. Their xFIP is actually worse than the Twins. They can't sustain that outperformance for an entire season.

 

Sure.  Then they will not be a contender.  My point is that the teams on top of the standings in W-L are the teams on top of the standings in ERA and not xFIP.   xFIP predicts that they have fared better than they deserved and their luck (and low ERA) might not continue.   Still it does nothing to explain the fact  that they are contending.  ERA is a trailing indicator and xFIP a leading indicator.  To explain the present you use trailing indicators and to predict the future leading.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Thrylos

[USAFChief]

 

I think he needs to learn to use all fields. I think that has caused his ridiculously low career .266 BABIP. He makes contact at a solid enough rate, draws his share of walks, hits line drives at a good clip. The next step is using all fields. Given the way he seems to have solved lhp in one offseason, I certainly think it is a step he is capable of making.

 I like Kepler, but I was, am, and will be skeptical of "solved LHP," for at least another couple years.

 

He had a nice start against LHP to this season. My bet is, the inevitable weight of LHP will pull his numbers back down.

 

But he should start hitting RHP much better.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is pretty outrageously negative, even for TD message boards.

 

Buxton is 24 years old. 24. He may have had 1074 PA at the MLB level but he still has time to develop. He has raked at every level of the minors (and the majors for two months last year) and it hasn't been because he's got a lot of infield hits. He's in no way who he will be at this point in time. Suggesting it seems willfully focused on raining on an already dismal parade.

 

Let's take a big deep breath and let this thing play out. Buxton will be better than this, we just need to wait.

I want to add to this. There's zero question that Buxton was promoted too early. Even the older administration, which was known for holding people back, promoted him very quick. For those that insist that people need to learn at the ML level, I present case A... Byron Buxton. He's been learning at the ML level, even when conventional wisdom would have said he needed to spend more time in the minors.

 

I think you're right that he'll eventually get there, but this is a big reason why people debate holding guys back. You want to get value out of those cheap years, and no offense to Buxton, but that value has been lacking.

 

But back to your point.... He's got 1k at bats... he's one of those who will probably need a bit more before we figure out what we have. Hopefully, his service time doesn't run out in the process.

[yarnivek1972]

But back to your point.... He's got 1k at bats... he's one of those who will probably need a bit more before we figure out what we have. Hopefully, his service time doesn't run out in the process.

 

Hence why I have been saying sending him to AAA now serves no useful purpose. Not specifically to you, but it has definitely been suggested by many.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Are you really sure Buxton is worthy of a “big” extension? This is a guy that many on this board want to see demoted to AAA (when/if he gets healthy).

I'm not sure these two facts are mutually exclusive. Perhaps I'm the only one, but I'd extend Buxton (especially now as he's cheap), and I wouldn't hesitate burning that option and giving him more time in AAA.

 

I do think the guy can be a star. I also think he has a lot to learn, and I'm not convinced that he can learn it all in MLB.

[Kelly Vance]

I swear, some of the posters on here would DFA their bride if she burned their bacon on the honeymoon.

[ewen21]

 

I find the idea that Sano's weight isn't a factor in his health and performance to be the assumption, not the other way around.

 

He'd be the first athlete in history not to be affected.

 

It assumes there isn't even a 1% chance weight or conditioning is a PART of the cause.

 

 

[h2oface]

 

To your point Jaleel, if the coaching is to blame for Buxton and Sano, then how do you explain the successes of Rosario, Kepler (hitting lefties well), Escobar?  I'm not at all convinced that this is a coaching issue.  At some point, the players have to put on their man pants and play like men and own up to the fact that professional athletes need to take care of their bodies and perform in order to remain professional athletes.  If I'm a carpenter and I keep hitting my hand with a hammer, I either need to change professions or get better with a hammer.  If you're a professional baseball player and you are doing things off the field that affect your play on the field, you need to either find another profession, or stop doing the things that are affecting your play on the field.

 

Coaches are there to help fix, find changes, for the batters that aren't hitting, no? When a player hits, no matter what they are doing, there is no coaching. Leave them alone. They coach themselves and develop confidence. Now...... when that reverses, and the batter is struggling.... now you coach them. In the end, it is all on the player to be the player. Most of the time, the off field activity isn't involved at the plate. The batter just isn't performing.

 

[adorduan]

I've said this before, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton scuffle along until his walk year and then have a great season and leave.  For teams with payrolls like the Twins, you have to get 3-4 great years out your players when they are cheap, or you are never going to really have a chance to contend.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with a career somewhat like Carlos Gomez.  Takes quite a while to figure it out, have a couple of great years and then decline.

[David HK]

 

No matter which way you slice it--injuries, coaching, attitude, whatever--I think the expectation was for these guys to explode this year, and instead they've fizzled.  With the core melting down, what do we do now, Scotty?

I don't think there are enough dilithium crystals out there to fix this team. But put me down in the Change-in-the-Dugout (on the bridge?) category.

Edited June 8, 2018 by David HK

[Danchat]

Wow, six pages in just 8 hours? Talk about a hot topic! I would like to weigh on a few things some here have said but there's too much to quote, so I'll just drop some thoughts here.

 

Sano's defense according to Fangraphs at 3B this season: ranked 55th out of 59 players (min. 60 Innings) with a -3.1 Def rating.

 

Meanwhile, Dozier ranks 30th out of 56 players at 2B with a +0.3 rating. By the way, I think some here are very down on Dozier, but you/they may not realize that he's currently slashing .247/.326/.430 with a .756 OPS. That's not bad and it's actually close to his career line (.250/.327/.451/.778 OPS). I don't think it's because of lack of effort - he's a streaky player who's going to hit a bunch of solo HRs for a few weeks and will have some very pronounced slumps. However I will say his 25 RBIs are very disappointing compared to his 99 and 93 RBI seasons in 2017 and 2018 respectively. (part of it is his below average clutch hitting, but I do believe it's also because the Twins bottom of the order are black holes, can't get RBIs when nobody's on base).

 

Also, I would like to travel to the alternate dimension where the Twins signed Yu Darvish. Obviously it's too early to call him a bust, but I can only imagine the vitriol here. It was kinda crazy how many here were lamenting how the Twins failed to sign him but I haven't heard a peep since the season started (I don't mean to call anyone out, more of looking back and seeing how silly we all looked in hindsight. I was on board an extension for Buxton!). Turns out the Twins aren't just an ace away from being a world series contender, huh?

 

One more thing: Pressly's on pace to pitch 83.1 innings this season. Please give him a break, Molly!
Oh, and:

Pressly March-April: 0.59 ERA (pitched on zero day's rest twice)

Pressly May-June: 6.00 ERA (pitched on zero day's rest 8 times!!!!)

 

This reminds me of a very similar problem with Belisle last year... he was much more effective when he had at least one day off.

Edited June 8, 2018 by Danchat

[ashbury]

I swear, some of the posters on here would DFA their bride if she burned their bacon on the honeymoon.

Perhaps true, but this is a site focused on the Minnesota Twins, not on other posters. (Moderator's note: Hint hint.)

[bighat]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with a career somewhat like Carlos Gomez.  Takes quite a while to figure it out, have a couple of great years and then decline.

 

I absolutely love Buxton's defense and he's such a great guy, but at this point if he finishes his career with Gomez-like numbers I would be a very happy and somewhat surprised Twins fan. I wish I felt differently but at this point he needs a major overhaul mentally and mechanically when in the batter's box to have a chance to match the output of a guy like Gomez.

[jorgenswest]

Their hope is in the young former top prospects. They won’t truly contend for a championship without them approaching their upside.

 

I wouldn’t give up on Buxton’s upside until he is 27.

 

I think Sano cares a great deal. I also think he will always have trouble with weight and conditioning and hence injuries.

 

They need to stay the course with Kepler.

 

Their hope is in that trio in combination with the young starters Berrios and Romero being aces. They are the recipe for a championship. The odds are not good but trading off any of the bats for lower ceiling but reliable talent won’t be enough.

 

Stay the course.

[Darius]

Good grief, people are now starting to disaprage Rowson in the comments?

 

He's done wonder s with Rosario and Escobar. He did the same last year with Polanco and a stretch with Buxton. Kepler has slowed down, but he's got him hitting lefties competently.

 

The guy is good coach, and they need to keep him around. Its completely unreasonable to put Buxton's typical agonizing start and injuries, Dozier's typical disappearing act for 3/4 of the season, Polanco's PED suspension, Sano's injuries/plethora of issues on Rowson.

 

What in the name of Pete is Rowson supposed to do with Wilson, Petit, LaMarre, Grossman, Adrianza, etc?

 

This is a professional sports team in Minnesota. This is what happens. Seasons get derailed by this or that every year. I'm not ready to call Rowson an issue just yet. Not after seeing him turn a lineup of misfits into the premier unit in the American League for a significant portion of 2017.