Article: What's Wrong with the Twins? A Fizzling Core

[jkcarew]

 

I mean, there's getting hot, and then there is what Buxton did. He was literally one of the most impactful players in the game over the final eight weeks last year, and probably THE single biggest reason for MIN's run to the playoffs. 

 

Also, this isn't some fantasy held by Twins fans. He was the unanimous #1 prospect in the game for multiple years. He's been hailed as a rising superstar by pretty much everyone. His K-rate progressively dropped month by month last season as he started to really straighten things out. To claim this is some narrative manufactured out of thin air ignores the reality of the matter.

 

And even with all the streakiness, he IS an established successful big-leaguer. 1.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.5 WAR last year. 

 

The Twins need him to be a competent hitter, not a world beater (though that'd be nice). Shouldn't really be that much to ask.

Buxton's 2017 2nd half narrative was 'real'...but it has been overstated/overplayed.  Last year Buxton had nearly 7% of his total bases for the season in ONE GAME.  Probably a record for qualified batters.

 

His swing has always been problematic and his WAR has always been inflated by defensive metrics...we know he's great in center, but the metrics inflate the value of that greatness.  I agree with the last part...he doesn't have to hit a ton to have value...a lot of the value in on the bases, if/when he ever gets on base.  His career OPS is now 672...as bad as that sounds, you could live with that (well, 700 would be more livable).  What you can't live with is months upon months of 500, and then one month of 1000.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Sadly, with 1074 PAs at the major league level he probably is who he is at this point- an often injured 4th outfielder with a .230/.285/.387 triple slash and an abysmal .21 BB/K rate.

 

This is pretty outrageously negative, even for TD message boards.

 

Buxton is 24 years old. 24. He may have had 1074 PA at the MLB level but he still has time to develop. He has raked at every level of the minors (and the majors for two months last year) and it hasn't been because he's got a lot of infield hits. He's in no way who he will be at this point in time. Suggesting it seems willfully focused on raining on an already dismal parade.

 

Let's take a big deep breath and let this thing play out. Buxton will be better than this, we just need to wait.

[d-mac]

 

Thanks.For.The.Staccato.Analysis.

 

The Twins had a 3.52 ERA in May and still went 13-15. Offense is the problem. The pitching staff is fine.  

 

The entire staff has an xFIP of 4.14. That's 8th in the AL. Not terrible. But we aren't going to compete for the playoffs without a high powered offense in this scenario. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

One problem is Buxton even without injury will gradually (or rapidly) lose speed and defensive coverage. Even if healthy. But for all his athleticism, he's not the natural everyone says. he doesn't naturally track a ball like Randy Moss or Torii Hunter who could take their eyes of the ball and run to a spot. Buck runs stuff down with raw speed, sometimes reckless speed. More like Corderrelle Patterson than Moss. I love Buck, but he has to hit and take care of his body.

By the time Sano figures things out, he may be 350 lbs. Cheap and controllable is super valuable. times running on controllable, and soon they won't even be that cheap. I think they both are victims of the hype train.

 

All players naturally lose their speed and defensive coverage; Father Time is undefeated. I think the concept is that Buxton will continue to develop other skills as he gets older. He is 24. He is in no way a finished product. He won’t have the range in three years but he’ll take better routes. He won’t have the raw basestealing speed but he’ll be better at reading pitchers.

 

Randy Moss has nothing to do with Byron Buxton. Sometimes an analogy springs to mind but then it should be suppressed. This is one of those.

 

Ragging on Sano for weight is tired schtick.

[d-mac]

 

I think there are two big things with Sano.

 

1.) His strikeout rate has jumped to the "oh crap" levels. That's hopefully a matter of comfort or adjustment but that's the part to be worried about.

 

2.) His BABIP is phenomenally low. Maybe he's making worse contact but I haven't seen that. I expect that will normalize as the sample gets larger.

 

His BABIP is incredibly low because his LD% has cratered to 11%. His career average prior to this season was about 21%. And a 40% K rate. That's a lot of easy outs.

[TheLeviathan]

I would push back if I saw it on threads I read... Unfortunately with the new job and life responsibilities I don't have the time I once did posting on the site!

That's good! My problem with manager criticisms is they are almost always so unfair and inconsistent they render the poster's views as nonsense.

 

Look no further than Buxton is Monitor's fault but no credit for Rosario. Nonsense.

[USAFChief]

 

I think it matters when it comes to playing basketball. I think it matters when running the bases.

 

But it doesn't really matter when you're hitting a baseball. Cecil Fielder wouldn't have been any better at hitting a baseball if he was a trim 180lbs. Same thing with Big Papi. The issue is his ability to identify and react to what pitchers are doing. His weight plays no role in that.

 

I also think we look at Sano and say "He's fat, therefore he's out of shape." That's an assumption, not a fact. Body sizes and shapes change as people get older (I know this all too well sadly) and that doesn't mean that Sano is out of shape. I haven't seen him be any worse in the field (maybe the defensive metrics will disagree) and he's the same running the bases by the eye test (he's just not running or trotting them enough).

I find the idea that Sano's weight isn't a factor in his health and performance to be the assumption, not the other way around.

 

He'd be the first athlete in history not to be affected.

[d-mac]

 

This is pretty outrageously negative, even for TD message boards.

 

Buxton is 24 years old. 24. He may have had 1074 PA at the MLB level but he still has time to develop. He has raked at every level of the minors (and the majors for two months last year) and it hasn't been because he's got a lot of infield hits. He's in no way who he will be at this point in time. Suggesting it seems willfully focused on raining on an already dismal parade.

 

Let's take a big deep breath and let this thing play out. Buxton will be better than this, we just need to wait.

 

Did you read the portion in my post about how inflated minor league BABIPs does not qualify as raking? His BABIP in the minors was about .400. That is just not possible at the major league level NO MATTER HOW FAST A PLAYER IS. It just isn't. Buxton has never proven to be able to control the strike zone or make quality contact AT ANY LEVEL. Assuming that he can just turn that around after six years of pro ball is a hell of a lot of faith. Any GM worth their salt cannot rely on a player like Buxton. 

[bighat]

 

It is also interesting the Gardy with a much worse club has them ahead of the Twins.  He is a much better manager than some of us gave him credit for.

 

The "FIRE GARDY" chant was so loud that it drowned out the most important question: who are we going to replace him with? Nobody seemed to care. Now we've got a box of Malt-o-Meal in the dugout who doesn't even know how to properly handle an NL double switch and can't motivate his players.

[bighat]

 

I can't give you anything from Buxton but I can say that the guy is 24. There are lots of athletes who struggled with injuries early in their career before figuring it out. Steph Curry jumps to mind. Some of that is their body getting stronger as they fully mature. Some of it is figuring out how to take care of their body to maintain a consistently high performance.

 

A guy being injury-prone early doesn't mean he always will be.

 

Right, but by the time he figures it out, he's going to be a free agent and/or no longer a member of this team. If Buxton figures things out when he's 28 years old, that's great news for the Red Sox or Padres or whoever takes a chance on him, but it does nothing for the Twins or their fans.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I find the idea that Sano's weight isn't a factor in his health and performance to be the assumption, not the other way around.

 

He'd be the first athlete in history not to be affected.

 

Nope. Cecil Fielder. Prince Fielder. David Wells. Big Papi. Bartolo Colon. CC Sabathia.

 

Baseball is not like other sports. Many positions involve little prolonged running. You can either hit a ball or you can't. Michael Jordan struggled in AA. Lebron James would too. It's an entirely different beast.

 

If you're going to say that Sano's performance is based on health, then you need to prove it. It's not on me to disprove it - I'm pointing to the many successful fatties in MLB.

[yarnivek1972]

Nope. Cecil Fielder. Prince Fielder. David Wells. Big Papi. Bartolo Colon. CC Sabathia.

 

Baseball is not like other sports. Many positions involve little prolonged running. You can either hit a ball or you can't. Michael Jordan struggled in AA. Lebron James would too. It's an entirely different beast.

 

If you're going to say that Sano's performance is based on health, then you need to prove it. It's not on me to disprove it - I'm pointing to the many successful fatties in MLB.

 

Difference being you are talking about guys who were overweight post 30. As has been mentioned, Sano is 24. If he can’t control his weight at that age, how likely is it to happen as he gets older and his natural metabolism slows?

[Mike Sixel]

Injuries are part of the equation for every team but I would debate that good teams adequately prepare for them. Every team has their Butera's and Punto's and the like as evidenced by the fact that the Twins had both when they were a good team and when those two left they went on and played for WS teams. The good teams can often withstand one or two of these guys playing regularly due to injury but usually not much more than that. Take the top pitcher, the 1st baseman, the catcher and the shortstop off any team and they are going to suffer because if the replacements were starter level they would be starters. If Trout goes down you are replacing your best player with a backup, not with another Trout. Cases in point. Its hard to argue that WS champions are not good teams so how would the 87 Twins have done without Viola, Hrbek, Puckett, Gagne and Laudner? How would the 91 Twins have done without Erickson, Hrbek, Puckett, Gagne and Harper? I'm not saying Santana, Mauer, Buxton, Polanco and Castro are the equivalent but injuries are part of the equation of every team and sometimes the equation adds up to success and sometimes it doesn't for teams good and bad. In this equation combining injuries with bad production from Dozier and Sano is a lousy formula.

The dodgers are overcoming.... With almost nothing from the best pitcher in the game, and losing seager... And more.

[USAFChief]

 

Nope. Cecil Fielder. Prince Fielder. David Wells. Big Papi. Bartolo Colon. CC Sabathia.

 

Baseball is not like other sports. Many positions involve little prolonged running. You can either hit a ball or you can't. Michael Jordan struggled in AA. Lebron James would too. It's an entirely different beast.

 

If you're going to say that Sano's performance is based on health, then you need to prove it. It's not on me to disprove it - I'm pointing to the many successful fatties in MLB.

I do not agree that weight played no part in any of their careers.

 

And for the record, none of them were third basemen. I'll further state that including pitchers in the equation is intentionally misleading, while still not providing any evidence of your claim.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Work in other pitchers such as

 

Duke - who's been more effective in a Loogy role

Rodney - 50 year old closer who has come around nicely

Rogers - Has been ineffective all year

Magill - has been brilliant in a mop up role

 

Who am I missing - Busenitz and Curtiss are in Rochester. Maybe you start feeding Magill into some higher leverage situations.

 

Starting pitchers need to throw more than 5 1/3 innings every night. It also seems like we've played a lot of extra innings - which might only seem like it because they've been painful extra innings.

That's league average for start length.....

[Mike Sixel]

I don't agree with people that Sano doesn't care, but then, I have no idea and neither do you. But, I'd guess it is very rare for elite professional athletes not to care, as a rule.

 

Buxton? I have doubts he'll ever be a good, consistent, hitter. Take out his September numbers, and it really hurts to look.

 

For this year? The team is probably toast. But I don't think it helps future years to send any of the core down....

[yarnivek1972]

That's league average for start length.....

Is it league average for the teams actually in contention for the playoffs? I actually don’t know but my guess is the “good teams” are better than average in this stat.

[Thrylos]

 

Hmm..

The Cubs are not pitching any better than the Twins (according to FanGraphs), though they are 10 games over .500.

Few here thought the Twins pitching was going to carry the season. We need to hit above average to win, which we can do given the weak division we are in.

 

Check B-R.  The Cubs are 2nd in the NL in ERA, the measurement I used for the Twins...

 

Even the "surprise" teams are highly ranked in ERA in their leagues 

Seattle (5th), Atlanta (6th), Philly (4th) 

Edited June 7, 2018 by Thrylos

[jimmer]

One problem is Buxton even without injury will gradually (or rapidly) lose speed and defensive coverage. Even if healthy. But for all his athleticism, he's not the natural everyone says. he doesn't naturally track a ball like Randy Moss or Torii Hunter who could take their eyes of the ball and run to a spot. Buck runs stuff down with raw speed, sometimes reckless speed. More like Corderrelle Patterson than Moss. I love Buck, but he has to hit and take care of his body.

 

By the time Sano figures things out, he may be 350 lbs. Cheap and controllable is super valuable. times running on controllable, and soon they won't even be that cheap. I think they both are victims of the hype train.

Buxton is a better fielder than Hunter was. Hunter was fabulous when he played CF for us, but Buxton is better, no doubt. Your description of Buxton describes Revere when he was with us playing CF, not Buxton. Edited June 7, 2018 by jimmer

[ThejacKmp]

 

I do not agree that weight played no part in any of their careers.

 

And for the record, none of them were third basemen. I'll further state that including pitchers in the equation is intentionally misleading, while still not providing any evidence of your claim.

 

Do you think that Miguel Sano's performance in the field has slipped? I've seen nothing like that. He's the same marginal baserunner he always was.

 

For hitting, weight doesn't matter (to a point obviously, a 500 pound guy would struggle). You think Fielder would have hit 65 homeruns if he'd been 50 pounds lighter? Is there any aspect of Sano's swing that you think is weight related?

 

I can see saying that the career might be shorter due to weight on knees. That's not something we're worried about with Sano now. This is about performance at 25. Weight has nothing to do with it.

[yarnivek1972]

To continue with the Trek analogy, the last resort is to eject the core.

 

Not quite there yet, but anti-matter containment field strength is critically low.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Right, but by the time he figures it out, he's going to be a free agent and/or no longer a member of this team. If Buxton figures things out when he's 28 years old, that's great news for the Red Sox or Padres or whoever takes a chance on him, but it does nothing for the Twins or their fans.

True. Or the Twins are smart and offer him a big extension this offseason. And you get those age 28-21 years on the cheap.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Work in other pitchers such as

 

Duke - who's been more effective in a Loogy role

Rodney - 50 year old closer who has come around nicely

Rogers - Has been ineffective all year

Magill - has been brilliant in a mop up role

 

Who am I missing - Busenitz and Curtiss are in Rochester.  Maybe you start feeding Magill into some higher leverage situations.  

 

Starting pitchers need to throw more than 5 1/3 innings every night.  It also seems like we've played a lot of extra innings - which might only seem like it because they've been painful extra innings.

Why not bring in Duke last night instead of Reed? The Twins are down 3 runs going into the bottom of the eighth, Duke has thrown all of 1 inning in the last 4 days, yet Molitor again opts for the overworked Reed. I don't have an issue with bringing in a better albeit more tired arm in a high leverage situation, but it's these types of innings that are needlessly adding to the wear and tear on important pitchers. 

 

Of course if starters were all going 7 deep the bullpen would be better off, but that isn't the way the league works right now. The Twins are carrying 13 pitchers, they have enough arms to absorb 5-6 inning starts. 

[yarnivek1972]

True. Or the Twins are smart and offer him a big extension this offseason. And you get those age 28-21 years on the cheap.

Are you really sure Buxton is worthy of a “big” extension? This is a guy that many on this board want to see demoted to AAA (when/if he gets healthy).

[Mike Sixel]

Why not bring in Duke last night instead of Reed? The Twins are down 3 runs going into the bottom of the eighth, Duke has thrown all of 1 inning in the last 4 days, yet Molitor again opts for the overworked Reed. I don't have an issue with bringing in a better albeit more tired arm in a high leverage situation, but it's these types of innings that are needlessly adding to the wear and tear on important pitchers.

 

Of course if starters were all going 7 deep the bullpen would be better off, but that isn't the way the league works right now. The Twins are carrying 13 pitchers, they have enough arms to absorb 5-6 inning starts.

Perfect example of bad managing.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

To your point Jaleel, if the coaching is to blame for Buxton and Sano, then how do you explain the successes of Rosario, Kepler (hitting lefties well), Escobar?  I'm not at all convinced that this is a coaching issue.  At some point, the players have to put on their man pants and play like men and own up to the fact that professional athletes need to take care of their bodies and perform in order to remain professional athletes.  If I'm a carpenter and I keep hitting my hand with a hammer, I either need to change professions or get better with a hammer.  If you're a professional baseball player and you are doing things off the field that affect your play on the field, you need to either find another profession, or stop doing the things that are affecting your play on the field.

 

I think you missed my point. I'm actually in agreement that it is wrong to blame Buxton's problems on mismanagement and injuries. I think the player needs to shoulder most of this.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Difference being you are talking about guys who were overweight post 30. As has been mentioned, Sano is 24. If he can’t control his weight at that age, how likely is it to happen as he gets older and his natural metabolism slows?

 

http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/prince-fielder-kid.jpg

 

Pretty sure Prince Fielder was always pretty hefty. His dad thickened up pretty quick too.

 

I don't see how weight has anything to do with hitting. I'd get it if Sano was terrible at 3B or was hitting balls off the wall and getting thrown out at 2B. But it's just hitting. Weight shouldn't matter.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Are you really sure Buxton is worthy of a “big” extension? This is a guy that many on this board want to see demoted to AAA (when/if he gets healthy).

 

It's a risk reward thing. Let's say the Twins offer him a 6 year $72 million contract. He's got to think about it right? And $12 million sounds like a lot (you can change it to $15 or $10 if you think that's more reasonable) but the Twins have minimal salary commitments and that number isn't crazy for a good defensive CF who has a .650 OPS (seems pretty doable with BABIP going up). And there's the potential for getting an all-star.

 

Buxton is exactly the guy I'm going to for an extension. You're going to get a deal and the reward is huge.

[Jham]

Buxton is a better fielder than Hunter was. Hunter was fabulous when he played CF for us, but Buxton is better, no doubt. Your description of Buxton describes Revere when he was with us playing CF, not Buxton.

I agree. Hunter had half of Buxton's athletic ability. My pay wasn't clear. Hunter in baseball, and Moss in football were the 2 best I've ever seen at tracking a ball. Many fielders steal a peek at the wall while tracking a ball. but few do it without breaking stride and almost none did it in the metrodome. but Hunter did. likewise, miss is to this day the only receiver I've ever seem take his eyes off a fly route and still catch a pass. To do that, you really have to track the ball in an instant. spacial control and recognition isn't a readily measured metric, but it allows for great catches in traffic over safeties or over walls without knocking yourself out.

[mickeymental]

 

Nope. Cecil Fielder. Prince Fielder. David Wells. Big Papi. Bartolo Colon. CC Sabathia.

 

Baseball is not like other sports. Many positions involve little prolonged running. You can either hit a ball or you can't. Michael Jordan struggled in AA. Lebron James would too. It's an entirely different beast.

 

If you're going to say that Sano's performance is based on health, then you need to prove it. It's not on me to disprove it - I'm pointing to the many successful fatties in MLB.