Article: What's Wrong with the Twins? A Fizzling Core

[Dantes929]

 

Injuries are part of the equation for every team. Good teams are adequately prepared for them. As for the suspension, Polanco did next to nothing in the first half last year. Point being his abscence isn’t why the offense is struggling. Again though, there was literally no plan B. 3 good starters at the MLB level for 2b, 3b and ss. One capable replacement. After that the dropoff was/is severe. That’s simply not how teams that win construct their roster.

Injuries are part of the equation for every team but I would debate that good teams adequately prepare for them.    Every team has their Butera's and Punto's and the like as evidenced by the fact that the Twins had both when they were a good team and when those two left they went on and played for WS teams.   The good teams can often withstand one or two of these guys playing regularly due to injury but usually not much more than that.   Take the top pitcher, the 1st baseman, the catcher and the shortstop off any team and they are going to suffer because if the replacements were starter level they would be starters.   If Trout goes down you are replacing your best player with a backup, not with another Trout.   Cases in point.  Its hard to argue that WS champions are not good teams so how would the 87 Twins have done without Viola, Hrbek, Puckett, Gagne and Laudner?    How would the 91 Twins have done without Erickson, Hrbek, Puckett, Gagne and Harper?    I'm not saying Santana, Mauer, Buxton, Polanco and Castro are the equivalent but injuries are part of the equation of every team and sometimes the equation adds up to success and sometimes it doesn't for teams good and bad.   In this equation combining injuries with bad production from Dozier and Sano is a lousy formula.

[beckmt]

We have 2 major issues

1.  extremely bad bullpen useage by the manager

2.  too much swing and miss and soft contact by a lot of the hitters.

Second will take time, but I always have been of the mind that you need a bunch of professional hitters who make a lot of contact and foul off a lot of pitches they cannot handle.  I do not care how good a bullpen is for the opposing team when their starter is at 100+ pitches in the 5th inning with this approach.  Their are ways to handle this, but most teams are not deep enough in the pen at this time to do it.

[beckmt]

Constant baserunners and no easy outs will make lot of difference of how the games go.  I can see the FO already starting to get away from the swing and miss types in the last few drafts.  That is a refreshing change.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I've read the article and all the comments to this article from my knowledgeable TD friends...and I am more discouraged now than before I read these solutions. If a player is not hitting, and is leading the world in strikeouts, the player doesn't play on my team, if I have someone who I think will be better. Sano needs a dose of reality and needs to be sent to AAA. Reward good results and punish bad results. Bring up Gordon. Both Sano and Gordon have earned changes of scenery. Buck needs to bunt more...at least once a game. Then he can rattle the other team with his speed. All sorts of good things happen for the Twins with Buck on base. Dozier needs to hit to the opposite field much more. Players need to bunt against an extreme shift. Stop emphasizing this love affair with swings which result in either a SO or a grounder into the shift or a long fly out. These guys are professional hitters  They should be able to "Hit 'em where they ain't". The object is not for an individual to lead the league in HR's and SO's. The object is for a "team"  to win. Please tell me where I'm wrong with my suggestions. Help me understand that this game is more complicated than what I think, and that what I have suggested shows my lack of knowledge about how to win at baseball. Then educate me about how to score more runs than the other team through 9 innings. 

[lukeduke1980]

 

We have 2 major issues

1.  extremely bad bullpen useage by the manager

 

We have 5 relievers w/20+ innings pitched with ERAs under 3.26. 

 

Please elaborate.

[Doubles]

 

I've never heard anything that says that guys who are heavier strikeout more.

 

Sano has been acceptable in the field and that's where you would see the weight matter most.

 

I'm pretty sick of the Sano-is-too-fat-and-it-shows-he's-lazy-and-doesn't-care obsession. He's just not hitting. That's the problem. The power's fallen off but not that much - it's mainly the average. The strikeouts explain some of that but a big chunk of it is his BABIP has dropped like crazy. Maybe that's luck, maybe that's approach.

If anyone wants to deny that being overweight and out of shape adversely affects athletic performance, you are fully entitled to that opinion.  Just the same as anyone who could not disagree more is entitled to that line of thinking.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Doubles

[TheLeviathan]

It also doesn't help when you can look at a lineup on any day and see one or more of Petit, Wilson, Grossman, and LaMarre. These are not players you can count on if you want to be a contending team.

Sure, but there really is only so much you can do with depth. Competent major leaguers aren't eager to be Plan B or C. The Mariners are playing the corpse of Gordon Beckham for example.

 

If you had said at ST we would lose Castro, Mauer, Polanco, and Buxton for much of the first half and sano, Dozier, Buxton, and LiMo would all be flailing....it wouldn't take a genius to expect offensive collapse.

 

It's the healthy guys playing like garbage that hurts most.

[Doubles]

This just seems like it's one of the seasons were enough things happen that make you conclude, "Ya know, maybe this just ain't our year..."

 

The Polanco news in spring training got the ball rolling on this.  

 

Injuries have hammered this team, and when compounded by several players performances regressing compared to last year, and this is what you get.  Think about the positions that have been affected by injuries / stupidity that have not been short-term:

 

1B

SS

3B

CF

C 

 

Just seems like these Twins have had 'bad ju-ju' pretty much from the get-go.  Yes, all teams have to fight through injuries, but something just seems 'off' this season.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Doubles

[yarnivek1972]

We have 5 relievers w/20+ innings pitched with ERAs under 3.26.

 

Please elaborate.

Twins have three (not one, not two, but THREE) relievers in the top 25 in MLB for relief IP. Keep in mind that no team has played fewer games than the Twins. Pressly has appeared in 32 of 58 games. Reed 29. Hildenberger 28. So, again 3 relievers that have appeared in basically half the games. That’s a recipe for disaster. Either those guys will physically break down and land on the DL or their effectiveness will be adversely affected. Or possibly both.

[Vanimal46]

We have 5 relievers w/20+ innings pitched with ERAs under 3.26.

 

Please elaborate.

Through 58 games, Molitor is constantly relying on 3 pitchers to get the team out of jams...

 

Ryan Pressly - 32 appearances and consistently relied on to go 1+ innings

 

Addison Reed - 29 appearances also consistently relied on to go 1+ innings

 

Hildenberger - 28 appearances 1+ innings at a time

 

Continuing to ride 3 arms for 50% of games is unsustainable over the course of a season.

 

This isn't anything new. Molitor does this every single season riding the hot arm(s) until they break down.

 

Instead of wearing them out over a 2 month period then see them struggle until they recover, he should work in other pitchers. Maybe we could get a full season of good Pressly if that were the case.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Everything was in place. Coming into this season, Sano and Buxton were both 24 years old, established as successful major-league players. One was coming off an All Star appearance, the other an MVP-caliber second half.

 

The bolded words have no reason being grouped into the same sentence at this point. The "glass half-full" "overflowing" approach with a Buxton outlook is ridiculous now. He caught fire for two months last year and suddenly he is an established MVP-caliber talent. Let's just forget the 2-1/2 seasons of crappiness that preceded last year's second half.

 

Any other player with the same track record and the performance over August and September last year would have been met with a fair share of skepticism. But in the Twins world, Buxton's inevitable rise to stardom is for some reason accepted as a given.

I mean, there's getting hot, and then there is what Buxton did. He was literally one of the most impactful players in the game over the final eight weeks last year, and probably THE single biggest reason for MIN's run to the playoffs. 

 

Also, this isn't some fantasy held by Twins fans. He was the unanimous #1 prospect in the game for multiple years. He's been hailed as a rising superstar by pretty much everyone. His K-rate progressively dropped month by month last season as he started to really straighten things out. To claim this is some narrative manufactured out of thin air ignores the reality of the matter.

 

And even with all the streakiness, he IS an established successful big-leaguer. 1.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.5 WAR last year. 

 

The Twins need him to be a competent hitter, not a world beater (though that'd be nice). Shouldn't really be that much to ask.

[gocgo]

To your point Jaleel, if the coaching is to blame for Buxton and Sano, then how do you explain the successes of Rosario, Kepler (hitting lefties well), Escobar?  I'm not at all convinced that this is a coaching issue.  At some point, the players have to put on their man pants and play like men and own up to the fact that professional athletes need to take care of their bodies and perform in order to remain professional athletes.  If I'm a carpenter and I keep hitting my hand with a hammer, I either need to change professions or get better with a hammer.  If you're a professional baseball player and you are doing things off the field that affect your play on the field, you need to either find another profession, or stop doing the things that are affecting your play on the field.

[TheLeviathan]

To your point Jaleel, if the coaching is to blame for Buxton and Sano, then how do you explain the successes of Rosario, Kepler (hitting lefties well), Escobar?  I'm not at all convinced that this is a coaching issue.  At some point, the players have to put on their man pants and play like men and own up to the fact that professional athletes need to take care of their bodies and perform in order to remain professional athletes.  If I'm a carpenter and I keep hitting my hand with a hammer, I either need to change professions or get better with a hammer.  If you're a professional baseball player and you are doing things off the field that affect your play on the field, you need to either find another profession, or stop doing the things that are affecting your play on the field.

Well said.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Instead of wearing them out over a 2 month period then see them struggle until they recover, he should work in other pitchers. Maybe we could get a full season of good Pressly if that were the case.

Work in other pitchers such as

 

Duke - who's been more effective in a Loogy role

Rodney - 50 year old closer who has come around nicely

Rogers - Has been ineffective all year

Magill - has been brilliant in a mop up role

 

Who am I missing - Busenitz and Curtiss are in Rochester.  Maybe you start feeding Magill into some higher leverage situations.  

 

Starting pitchers need to throw more than 5 1/3 innings every night.  It also seems like we've played a lot of extra innings - which might only seem like it because they've been painful extra innings.

 

[bighat]

Great article and great comments/discussion. So much to chew on.

 

It's so frustrating. When teams struggle, most of them have some top-tier prospects waiting in the wings to provide some hope and excitement. Look at the Braves and Ronald Acuna, the Mets with Brandon Nimmo, etc.

 

The problem is that the Twins already brought up their prized prospect (Buxton) and, frankly, he stinks. They've been optioning him back-and-forth for years now (years!!!) and now they've resorted to stashing him on the infamous "Phantom DL" where the likes of Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey spent time during their last gasps with the Twins.

 

At this point I think the management needs to switch gears. Build around Rosario.

[TheLeviathan]

Through 58 games, Molitor is constantly relying on 3 pitchers to get the team out of jams...

Ryan Pressly - 32 appearances and consistently relied on to go 1+ innings

Addison Reed - 29 appearances also consistently relied on to go 1+ innings

Hildenberger - 28 appearances 1+ innings at a time

Continuing to ride 3 arms for 50% of games is unsustainable over the course of a season.

This isn't anything new. Molitor does this every single season riding the hot arm(s) until they break down.

Instead of wearing them out over a 2 month period then see them struggle until they recover, he should work in other pitchers..

Are you there to defend him when he uses those guys and they blow games and the chorus is "why not use your best guys"?

[beckmt]

You cannot continue to burn relievers and expect good results to happen.  Top managers know sometimes you have to use a different person to get key outs and if they fail it is only one game.  Not use the same ones all the time and when they fail you see the Indians current bullpen (they fail most of the time).  Twins hitting until some of the DL players return is not good enough to carry this club, pitching is going to have to.  Either the FO is going to have to pull up other relievers from the minors and let some talent go, or Molly has to go and find a manager who knows how to manage to run the Twins.

Some relievers do not show up the overuse until the next year.  That may be the case now with Rogers.  If this continues the fire sale should be interesting.

It is also interesting the Gardy with a much worse club has them ahead of the Twins.  He is a much better manager than some of us gave him credit for.

[d-mac]

I've been saying it since 2012... I would have drafted Gausman over Buxton and the Astros ran circles around us during that draft.

 

The concerns with Buxton's bat have always been there- as an amateur he was extremely raw and came from a high school conference devoid of any talent (other than himself)- he had probably never seen a breaking ball before pro ball. One should always be wary of the uber athlete with contact deficiencies- the power won't play in a game if they can't make contact and the speed won't play on the bases if they can't get on base. Furthermore, age and injuries can make athleticism fleeting.

 

None of that means he couldn't have become the player we had all hoped he would. The previous development team had absolutely destroyed any chance he had to be come a productive major league hitter. He should have been moved at the glacial "one level a year" pace. His speed inflates BABIPs in the minors- many of those infield singles turn to outs and doubles and triples turn to singles and doubles at the major league level. He never learned to control the strike zone- his best BB/K ratio was .79 at A ball in 2013. His BB/K in AA in 2015 was .51. He was recovering from a major concussion. He should have stayed there for the entire season. He should have stayed in AAA for all of not most of 2016. Instead they chose to cash in on his hype for short term gain instead of focusing on his long term success as a player.

 

Sadly, with 1074 PAs at the major league level he probably is who he is at this point- an often injured 4th outfielder with a .230/.285/.387 triple slash and an abysmal .21 BB/K rate.

 

As far as Sano goes- I was a believer until this year. The events of these past 7-8 months have really caused me to sour on him. Maybe shipping him to AAA will be the wake up call he needs to get his s*** straightened out.

 

Kepler is at 1257 PAs and is probably is who he is at this point- he hits too many ground balls and pop ups- doesn't drive the ball enough- either he's got to add more launch angle or he's going to be a fairly fungible player for the remainder of his career.

 

As far as Dozier, Mauer, Santana go- getting old sucks.

 

That's a lot of hope on unproven players and players on the wrong side of 30.

 

Here's to hoping this development team won't f*** up our next core of position players coming up.

[Vanimal46]

Are you there to defend him when he uses those guys and they blow games and the chorus is "why not use your best guys"?

I would push back if I saw it on threads I read... Unfortunately with the new job and life responsibilities I don't have the time I once did posting on the site!

[Don Walcott]

Buxton started having migraines early in the season, then fouled a ball off his toe. Bad luck. I'm not writing him off until he gets healthy and plays for a while.

 

I'm really tired of the Sano bashing on this site. There's another way to look at what's been going on with Sano. Last year he fouled a ball off his leg and fractured a bone. He tried to play through it without surgery so he could contribute to this team. That was probably painful and difficult, but he tried. He ultimately needed surgery and a rod in his leg.  So he did not have a normal off-season to prepare himself for this year physically. Everyone on this site claimed he wouldn't be ready for the start of the season, and he wouldn't be able to play third base. He got himself ready to start the season at third base. He started out pretty well, but pulled a hamstring, which is a very difficult injury to play through and recovery times are different for everyone. Now, he's getting back to form slowly, which would be expected of any player who's gone through what he's gone through. From my perspective, he's shown nothing but admirable desire to be on the field and contribute, despite some tough breaks (pun intended).

 

The plate discipline issues for both Sano and Buxton are troubling, and have been for a few years. We can only hope they work through those issues as they are healthy and playing regularly. But I wouldn't question the desire or attitudes of either of these players without more information.

[Thrylos]

 

Vastly improved rotation and bullpen. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar playing out of their minds. A truly terrible division. Insert the versions of Buxton and Sano that we all expected – or even close, or even one or the other – into that equation, and the team is winning this division right now. Maybe handily.

 

Sadly, this is so very true.

Funny game, baseball.

 

 

Not.So.True.

 

The "vastly improved" pitching staff is 9th in AL in ERA.  In 2017, it was also 9th in the AL in ERA.

 

So Not.That.Improved.

 

Unless the pitching is in the top 5 in the AL, no matter who hits how, this team will be around .500 at best

Edited June 7, 2018 by Thrylos

[yarnivek1972]

Rogers appeared in 69 games and had 55 IP. That's not even close to overuse.

[yarnivek1972]

Buxton started having migraines early in the season, then fouled a ball off his toe. Bad luck. I'm not writing him off until he gets healthy and plays for a while.

 

What about his history suggests he is capable of doing so?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Not.So.True.

 

The "vastly improved" pitching staff is 9th in AL in ERA.  In 2017, it was also 9th in the AL in ERA.

 

So Not.That.Improved.

 

Unless the pitching is in the top 5 in the AL, no matter who hits how, this team will be around .500 at best

Hmm..

The Cubs are not pitching any better than the Twins (according to FanGraphs), though they are 10 games over .500.

Few here thought the Twins pitching was going to carry the season. We need to hit above average to win, which we can do given the weak division we are in.

[bighat]

 

Concur.

 

The fizzling core wouldn't be quite so damaging if the bottom third of the lineup wasn't such a black hole. 

 

Worse yet, the "black hole" are the only guys hitting. Without Garver, LaMarre and Adrianza the Twins would have been shut out last night. This offense has been an embarrassment.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If anyone wants to deny that being overweight and out of shape adversely affects athletic performance, you are fully entitled to that opinion.  Just the same as anyone who could not disagree more is entitled to that line of thinking.

 

I think it matters when it comes to playing basketball. I think it matters when running the bases.

 

But it doesn't really matter when you're hitting a baseball. Cecil Fielder wouldn't have been any better at hitting a baseball if he was a trim 180lbs. Same thing with Big Papi. The issue is his ability to identify and react to what pitchers are doing. His weight plays no role in that.

 

I also think we look at Sano and say "He's fat, therefore he's out of shape." That's an assumption, not a fact. Body sizes and shapes change as people get older (I know this all too well sadly) and that doesn't mean that Sano is out of shape. I haven't seen him be any worse in the field (maybe the defensive metrics will disagree) and he's the same running the bases by the eye test (he's just not running or trotting them enough).

[Jham]

One problem is Buxton even without injury will gradually (or rapidly) lose speed and defensive coverage. Even if healthy. But for all his athleticism, he's not the natural everyone says. he doesn't naturally track a ball like Randy Moss or Torii Hunter who could take their eyes of the ball and run to a spot. Buck runs stuff down with raw speed, sometimes reckless speed. More like Corderrelle Patterson than Moss. I love Buck, but he has to hit and take care of his body.

 

By the time Sano figures things out, he may be 350 lbs. Cheap and controllable is super valuable. times running on controllable, and soon they won't even be that cheap. I think they both are victims of the hype train.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What about his history suggests he is capable of doing so?

 

I can't give you anything from Buxton but I can say that the guy is 24. There are lots of athletes who struggled with injuries early in their career before figuring it out. Steph Curry jumps to mind. Some of that is their body getting stronger as they fully mature. Some of it is figuring out how to take care of their body to maintain a consistently high performance.

 

A guy being injury-prone early doesn't mean he always will be.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Not.So.True.

 

The "vastly improved" pitching staff is 9th in AL in ERA.  In 2017, it was also 9th in the AL in ERA.

 

So Not.That.Improved.

 

Unless the pitching is in the top 5 in the AL, no matter who hits how, this team will be around .500 at best

Thanks.For.The.Staccato.Analysis.

 

The Twins had a 3.52 ERA in May and still went 13-15. Offense is the problem. The pitching staff is fine.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Buxton started having migraines early in the season, then fouled a ball off his toe. Bad luck. I'm not writing him off until he gets healthy and plays for a while.

 

I'm really tired of the Sano bashing on this site. There's another way to look at what's been going on with Sano. Last year he fouled a ball off his leg and fractured a bone. He tried to play through it without surgery so he could contribute to this team. That was probably painful and difficult, but he tried. He ultimately needed surgery and a rod in his leg.  So he did not have a normal off-season to prepare himself for this year physically. Everyone on this site claimed he wouldn't be ready for the start of the season, and he wouldn't be able to play third base. He got himself ready to start the season at third base. He started out pretty well, but pulled a hamstring, which is a very difficult injury to play through and recovery times are different for everyone. Now, he's getting back to form slowly, which would be expected of any player who's gone through what he's gone through. From my perspective, he's shown nothing but admirable desire to be on the field and contribute, despite some tough breaks (pun intended).

 

The plate discipline issues for both Sano and Buxton are troubling, and have been for a few years. We can only hope they work through those issues as they are healthy and playing regularly. But I wouldn't question the desire or attitudes of either of these players without more information.

 

I think there are two big things with Sano.

 

1.) His strikeout rate has jumped to the "oh crap" levels. That's hopefully a matter of comfort or adjustment but that's the part to be worried about.

 

2.) His BABIP is phenomenally low. Maybe he's making worse contact but I haven't seen that. I expect that will normalize as the sample gets larger.