Article: 2018 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm aware of the circumstances at the time, my point was from the previous poster's comment that it's not as simple as "take the best pitcher," you never wanna pass on a possible generational talent because you need pitching

If people knew Trout would be Trout, he'd have gone 1 overall. No one knew he was generational talent when he was drafted. He was a toolsy OF.

[ChrisKnutson]

I’m hoping the Twins are looking to surround Royce Lewis with more athletes like shortstops Osiris Johnson and Xavier Edwards.

[Tom Froemming]

Here's hoping Casey Mize has a long and healthy career ... after he gets trade out of the division

 

First two picks have been Mize and Joey Bart, as expected.

[jorgenswest]

I blogged a brief history of pick 20. Brief enough to copy here.

 

The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts.

 

Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system.

 

Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance.

 

It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering.

 

The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.

Edited June 4, 2018 by jorgenswest

[AZTwin]

Thought Brady Singer would go at 4. He has now fallen out of top 5

[gunnarthor]

 

Thought Brady Singer would go at 4. He has now fallen out of top 5

Just drop another 15 spots!

[AZTwin]

Kid from Wisconsin looks good

[AZTwin]

Brady Singer is falling

[Andrew Thares]

Last year MacKenzie Gore and now this year Ryan Weathers. The Padres really like high school left handers

[Andrew Thares]

I don't see Singer falling past Oakland. Billy Beane loves college pitchers, especially from Florida as he used both his first and second round picks in 2016 on a Gator pitcher in A.J. Puk and Logan Shore. 

[Squirrel]

How much ahead of the pick to these guys know they are being picked?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Kid from Wisconsin looks good

Kelenic is an amazing talent, the first time I saw him was a couple of years ago and he stood out as a HS Sophomore playing against older competition.  Little video I took of him from the WWBA:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORaDA18G6YI

[AZTwin]

Kyler Murray. Wow. Brady Singer still falling

[Andrew Thares]

 

I don't see Singer falling past Oakland. Billy Beane loves college pitchers, especially from Florida as he used both his first and second round picks in 2016 on a Gator pitcher in A.J. Puk and Logan Shore. 

Or maybe not. I wonder if the low arm slot is scaring teams away. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Or maybe not. I wonder if the low arm slot is scaring teams away. 

Can't imagine he falls to us but, at a certain point, teams probably are confused on why he's still on the board.

[AZTwin]

Pitchers are falling. Twins should get a good player

[Mike Sixel]

If everyone goes... only take hitters high.... good pitchers will fall.

[Bob Sacamento]

Almost seems like some teams are sandbagging early on taking players with less leverage to save money for later picks.  Personally l can't believe Liberatore is still on the board but it has to money related

Edited June 5, 2018 by Bob Sacamento

[Andrew Thares]

Wow the Blue Jays drafting Jordan Groshans kinda surprises me. I guess why not give the kid a shot.

[gunnarthor]

 

Almost seems like some teams are sandbagging early on taking players with less leverage to save money for later picks.  Personally l can't believe Liberatore is still on the board but it has to money related

I mean, we're pretty close to getting someone nice dropping to us. The question then comes, do the Twins nab a guy who wanted top 10 money? I hope we do.

[Darius]

Just looking at the comp picks, and I'm confused (don't know the formula, I guess).

 

It seems ridiculous to me that Tampa gets the 31st and 32nd picks for Alex Cobb and Darren Rasmussen. Higher than the Royals losing Cain and Hosmer. Is there somebody record based input?

 

Also, how do the Cardinals and Indians get competitive balance picks ahead of the Marlins, Athletics, Reds. I know that is based on revenue and record, so it seems a little strange.

 

Again, not a big MLB draftnick, but some of these arbitrary comp picks seem a little off.

[AZTwin]

Unless all the pitchers come off the board in a row, we are going to get a good one

[gunnarthor]

 

Unless all the pitchers come off the board in a row, we are going to get a good one

Yep, and there are some exciting non-pitchers as well - Gorman and Turang.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Just looking at the comp picks, and I'm confused (don't know the formula, I guess).

It seems ridiculous to me that Tampa gets the 31st and 32nd picks for Alex Cobb and Darren Rasmussen. Higher than the Royals losing Cain and Hosmer. Is there somebody record based input?

Also, how do the Cardinals and Indians get competitive balance picks ahead of the Marlins, Athletics, Reds. I know that is based on revenue and record, so it seems a little strange.

Again, not a big MLB draftnick, but some of these arbitrary comp picks seem a little off.

The MLB Glossary entry for this is pretty solid.

 

I believe that 31st pick originally belonged to the Pirates. 

 

There is a series of competitive balance picks after both the first and second rounds. The order in which they are awarded is somewhat complicated. It depends on how much the departing player signed for and whether or not the team collects revenue sharing. Here's another article that has some info on the qualifying offer rules.

[Andrew Thares]

With 5 picks until the Twins pick my 5 best players available are:

 

#4 Brady Singer

#6 Matthew Liberatore

#9 Shane McClanahan

#10 Nolan Gorman

#13 Ryan Rolison

[GameDay]

Praying that either Singer or Liberatore somehow stay on the board for our pick. That would be HUGE.

[Mike Sixel]

Gonna be hard to sign anyone with leverage to a large overslot deal, given the Hughes trade. 

[GameDay]

 

With 5 picks until the Twins pick my 5 best players available are:

 

#4 Brady Singer

#6 Matthew Liberatore

#9 Shane McClanahan

#10 Nolan Gorman

#13 Ryan Rolison

Not much of a Rolison fan. Would rather we not take him.

[gunnarthor]

 

Praying that either Singer or Liberatore somehow stay on the board for our pick. That would be HUGE.

Big question is would we actually pick them?

[markos]

 

Gonna be hard to sign anyone with leverage to a large overslot deal, given the Hughes trade. 

I'd say they should give it their best shot. If it doesn't work out, they get the 21st pick next year. Hardly the end of the world. And $3M+ is still a lot of money.