Article: 2018 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

Kowar would be a nice pickup at that point, not too risky, fairly safe and I'm always a sucker for a guy with an advanced changeup, there are plenty of scouts who favor Kowar to Singer (who's likely a Top 10 pick) similar a couple years ago when Florida had AJ Puk and Logan Shore.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Sure, it happens. The bottomline is that it is so hard to find great pitching in today's game while you can piece together a lineup relatively easy. I am a firm believer that you draft as much pitching as possible and finding missing pieces among positions players through trades and FA is the way to go.

 

Depends on the market. If you're in LA, NY, Bos etc., I think you have more latitude to bring in free agent pitching and reclamation projects.

 

In a small market like the TC though, you need high-upside ace potential.

[MangLitch]

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

Is this Terry Ryan's secret account?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

Trout had also floated out a 4M signing bonus at the time, so teams just didn't pass on him to pass on him. Luckily the scout, Greg Morhardt, who had watched him repeatedly knew the family as he played minor league ball with Mike's dad, Jeff, in the Twins system in the 80s.

 

And truth be told at the time, Gibson was considered a Top 5 pick before hurting his forearm (stress fracture) at the end of his college season.

[jimbo92107]

More seriously, I'd go BPA unless there's an unusually good college catcher available at 20. So BPA is most likely, which will probably turn out to be some HS pitcher.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I'll take another SS!  About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams.  They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.

Yeah most of your present day MLB 3B and 2B were SS back in HS and even in college.  Either outgrowing the position and unable to keep up with the defensive demand.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

More seriously, I'd go BPA unless there's an unusually good college catcher available at 20. So BPA is most likely, which will probably turn out to be some HS pitcher.

Yeah the only college catcher worthy of a first round pick is Joey Bart and he's not getting past the Top 5.  After him, Raleigh from FSU and Koch from Arkansas and Williams from Clemson and I guess JJ Schwarz from Florida if you still count him as a catcher but most of those are probably Day 2 picks.

[bird]

 

20th overall picks...

 

1993 - Torii Hunter (of)

1994 - Terrence Long (1b)

1995 - David Yocum (p)

1996 - Eric Milton (p)

1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss)

1998 - CC Sabathia (p)

1999 - Vince Faison (of)

2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p)

2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p)

2002 - Denard Span (of)

2003 - Chad Cordero (p)

2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss)

2005 - Mark Pawelek (p)

2006 - Chris Parmelee (of)

2007 - Chris Withrow (p)

2008 - Josh Fields (p)

2009 - Chad Jenkins (p)

2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b)

2011 - Tyler Anderson (p)

2012 - Chris Stratton (p)

2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p)

2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b)

2015 - Richie Martin (ss)

2016 - Gavin Lux (ss)

2017 - David Peterson (p)

 

Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks.  Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years.  Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.

 

 

Hmm, looks like about 8 or so of the 25 players listed here amounted to anything at all, and half of those players were selected by the Twins. Kinda throws water on the idea that the team has been worse than average as talent evaluators over time.

 

Maybe 20 is their lucky number.

 

And in Gibson's draft class, of the 49 players selected in the first round, only 9 players have accumulated more WAR than Gibson, and Gibson most likely will shoot past a couple of them as well.

 

The Trout stuff gets old, since most every team passed on a him, some more than once.

 

Gibson, as hard as he can be on the eyes sometimes, has turned out to be a high-quality decision.

Edited June 4, 2018 by birdwatcher

[old nurse]

A strategy that might be effective is to take the best ths player that fell. If they do not sign the pick and money carries over to the next year.  Same for the second round pick.  That gives the team far more room to play with in 2019. If a college player falls that the team loves that changes things. The rukes of the draft are such that a team has to consider the following year in their planning.

 

[snap4birds]

 

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick.

 

 

I hate to nitpick, but Wacha went 19th overall, not in the 20's.

But I'm seeing some comparisons between him & Kowar.  Wacha supposedly fell because he had a limited repertoire, I believe the same as Kowar-fastball/changeup.

 

And I lied.  I LOVE to nitpick :-). 

[Andrew Thares]

I have been seeing a lot of people wanting the Twins to take a college catcher with their first round pick. While I would like that too, there just won't be anybody worth taking at pick 20.

 

Joey Bart is the only college catcher that I think even deserves to be looked at for a first round pick, and he will most likely be off the board by pick #5. After that you get a few guys like Cal Raleigh, Grant Koch or JJ Schwarz, but those guys are all more like 3-5 round picks not 1st rounders.

 

If the Twins do go catcher at pick 20, there are some great options in the high school ranks like Anthony Seigler, Noah Naylor or Will Banfield that I could see them taking.

 

[zenser]

I would be pretty pleased if they came away with one of the following:

 

Gilbert

Kowar

McClanahan

Grayson Rodriguez

Ethan Hankins

Turang

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I would be pretty pleased if they came away with one of the following:

 

Gilbert

Kowar

McClanahan

Grayson Rodriguez

Ethan Hankins

Turang

Great read on the Top 10 college pitchers and their use/abuse over their college career. Which is even more of a reason to take Kowar.

 

 

[jkcarew]

 

I have been seeing a lot of people wanting the Twins to take a college catcher with their first round pick. While I would like that too, there just won't be anybody worth taking at pick 20.

 

Joey Bart is the only college catcher that I think even deserves to be looked at for a first round pick, and he will most likely be off the board by pick #5. After that you get a few guys like Cal Raleigh, Grant Koch or JJ Schwarz, but those guys are all more like 3-5 round picks not 1st rounders.

 

If the Twins do go catcher at pick 20, there are some great options in the high school ranks like Anthony Seigler, Noah Naylor or Will Banfield that I could see them taking.

Agreed.  (Other than Bart) it's highly questionable that any of the college catchers would get to the majors before Rortvedt.  This is Rortvedt's 3rd year of professional ball.  He was a number 56 pick, and so far, he's far from failing...with a very good chance of being at AA Chattanooga by next year at 21.

 

I'd take a catcher, don't get me wrong, but given what's there, I'd almost rather it be a very-high topside HS kid.  All-in-all, BPA...I like the position guys better than pitchers, all other things being equal (which they never are). 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Hmm, looks like about 8 or so of the 25 players listed here amounted to anything at all, and half of those players were selected by the Twins. Kinda throws water on the idea that the team has been worse than average as talent evaluators over time.

 

Maybe 20 is their lucky number.

 

And in Gibson's draft class, of the 49 players selected in the first round, only 9 players have accumulated more WAR than Gibson, and Gibson most likely will shoot past a couple of them as well.

 

The Trout stuff gets old, since most every team passed on a him, some more than once.

 

Gibson, as hard as he can be on the eyes sometimes, has turned out to be a high-quality decision.

 

If you do all of the players over for the whole draft, you get Gibson at 29th in WAR. That's not too shabby. If you redid the draft with hindsight, the National would have Harper and Trout. Wow.

[jimbo92107]

 

Yeah the only college catcher worthy of a first round pick is Joey Bart and he's not getting past the Top 5.  After him, Raleigh from FSU and Koch from Arkansas and Williams from Clemson and I guess JJ Schwarz from Florida if you still count him as a catcher but most of those are probably Day 2 picks.

Any of them break a leg lately? Grasping at straws...

[twinsfanstreif]

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

Don't give them any ideas!!!!!!!!!

[twinsfanstreif]

Trout had also floated out a 4M signing bonus at the time, so teams just didn't pass on him to pass on him. Luckily the scout, Greg Morhardt, who had watched him repeatedly knew the family as he played minor league ball with Mike's dad, Jeff, in the Twins system in the 80s.

 

And truth be told at the time, Gibson was considered a Top 5 pick before hurting his forearm (stress fracture) at the end of his college season.

I'm aware of the circumstances at the time, my point was from the previous poster's comment that it's not as simple as "take the best pitcher," you never wanna pass on a possible generational talent because you need pitching

[caninatl04]

I suspect the FO will NOT go for BPA since it would not allow them a chance to show off how "clever" they are.  Look for them to sign a college pitcher below slot.  Then they will use the money to try to sign someone with "signability" issues in rounds 2 and 4.

 

I don't think we will look back at this draft as a banner year.  But who knows, maybe we'll be able to trade Lynn at the deadline for a competitive balance pick and (ha ha ha) maybe the Pohlad's will use the $7 million saved on Phil Hughes' contract to improve.... ah, who am I kidding.

[Vanimal46]

What does BPA even mean for everyone? BPA on who's big board?

 

Technically anyone is a BPA because they're still available at 20.

[Darius]

I find the "best player available," cliche to be kind of absurd.

 

1). How is that even something you can quantify, given the multitude of positions? What metric do you use to determine this SS is better than that SP in the first place?

 

2). There is no consensus for BPA, probably even within the same front office.

 

3) There are sign-ability considerations. Within those sign-ability considerations, every pick is made under the pretense that the selection is the best player available for that team.

 

4). If a front office passes on a player B that they can sign, that is better than player A, just for the hell of taking player A, they wouldn't have a job long.

 

5). Position fluidity makes it nearly impossible to determine where these guys will end up, anyway. Tons of guys get drafted as Short stops and catchers and move to different positions. When do you ever see a high school pitcher drafted as a reliever (they're all starters). How do you put a value on that? You have no way of know if player A will be blocked by player B in rookie ball.

 

My point: Everyone thinks they are drafting BPA. Nobody has to be reminded to take BPA, and there is no other viable draft strategy that has ever existed. Nobody walks away from the war room saying, "we did good job of staying away from the better players this year boys, we should be set for 2022."

 

Only fans think "Royce Lewis when we already have Nick Gordon? What the hell?"

Edited June 4, 2018 by Darius

[Mike Sixel]

If BPA is always a pitcher, do you always take a pitcher?

[PDX Twin]

 

What does BPA even mean for everyone? 

 

Well, since you asked ... BPA for me means Bonneville Power Administration. But then I live in Portland.

[Tom Froemming]

 

What does BPA even mean for everyone? 

Bisphenol A?

 

I find the "best player available," cliche to be kind of absurd.

 

...

 

My point: Everyone thinks they are drafting BPA. Nobody has to be reminded to take BPA, and there is no other viable draft strategy that has ever existed. Nobody walks away from the war room saying, "we did good job of staying away from the better players this year boys, we should be set for 2022."

Only fans think "Royce Lewis when we already have Nick Gordon? What the hell?"

I don't really think that's true. I think your third point, about signability, is a bigger factor than you're giving credit.

 

The top player on the Twins' board when they pick may not be the guy they draft because, as Andrew laid out, the draft bonus pools add an extra element of strategy. Maybe your top guy requires an over slot deal to keep him from going to college and you can get the third guy on your board for an under-slot deal and there's no signability concerns. Maybe the difference in your perception of their overall future value is a smaller margin than that gap in expected signing bonus. Allowing you to take the cheaper guy at 20 would then open up doors to potentially land a player at 59 who most teams were avoiding due to signability concerns. 

 

The Twins didn't pay Blayne Enlow, the 76th pick last year, the 33d highest signing bonus just for fun. But, comparing last year's options to this year's for the Twins is like comparing apples to dinosaurs. There's just not much they can do with such a shallow bonus pool.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Well, since you asked ... BPA for me means Bonneville Power Administration. But then I live in Portland.

lol I think there is a few of us in Portland

[Mike Sixel]

 

lol I think there is a few of us in Portland

 

someday we can watch a game together.....

[Bob Sacamento]

 

someday we can watch a game together.....

The Cubs short season affiliate is out of Eugene, so I plan on going to a couple of games in Hillsboro (Dbacks affiliate).  Elsewise I'll be watching the Portland Pickles in the wooden bat West Coast League (college kids from OSU, Pepperdine, USC, Portland State, etc).

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Cubs short season affiliate is out of Eugene, so I plan on going to a couple of games in Hillsboro (Dbacks affiliate).  Elsewise I'll be watching the Portland Pickles in the wooden bat West Coast League (college kids from OSU, Pepperdine, USC, Portland State, etc).

 

I lived in walking distance in Hillsboro year 1....was too busy wiht work, beer fests, wineries and hiking to ever go.....but I'd happily head out there sometime if you want. Or not. Either works.

[GCTF]

 

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

Well done.