Article: 2018 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Andrew Thares]

The Twins will only have two picks on Day 1 of the 2018 draft — Nos. 20 and 59 overall — but that doesn’t mean there is any lack of storylines to follow. How might the Twins navigate the draft? Considering their modest bonus pool, will they prioritize more signable college players over high-upside high schoolers? Come join in on the discussion as we gear up for the draft.The 2018 MLB Draft starts Monday night, and is available to watch on MLB Network or MLB.com starting at 5 pm CT. Day 1 includes the first two rounds (including the comp picks), so 78 total players will be drafted. Rounds 3-10 continue Tuesday before the draft concludes Wednesday with rounds 11-40.

 

We'll get into some strategic moves the Twins may be considering a little later, but for now here is some additional pre-draft coverage from Twins Daily that you’ll want to check out:

 

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 1-10

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 11-20

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 21-30

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 31-40

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 41-50

2018 MLB Draft: Minnesota Connections

 

While many of you have followed the MLB Draft for years and know what to expect going in, I am sure there are some that are not as familiar with the draft process and how it works. So, here is a brief breakdown of some of the things you need to know before the draft.

 

The draft itself is made up of 40 rounds with a competitive balance round and a compensation round after both the first and second rounds. With the exception of the Competitive Balance picks, teams are not allowed to trade their draft picks. This means that that Twins, who have the 20th pick in the draft, will have the 20th pick in each subsequent round of the draft.

 

Another wrinkle to the MLB Draft is that each team is awarded a certain amount of money (referred to as a bonus pool) that they can use to pay out to their picks in the first ten rounds of the draft. A team’s total bonus pool is based on which picks they have in the first ten rounds, as each pick has a dollar value attached to it.

 

Teams can spend above or below that value for each pick, but the total value spent must remain below the total allotted amount or they will be assigned a penalty. If a team fails to sign one of their picks in the first ten rounds they lose the money that is attached to that pick. Also, if a team signs a player after round ten to a bonus of more than $100K, the extra amount comes out of their bonus pool.

 

Here is a breakdown of each pick that the Twins have in the first ten rounds and the bonus pool money assigned to that pick.

 

1st Round: 20th Overall - $3,120,000

2nd Round: 59th Overall - $1,140,600

4th Round: 124th Overall - $442,600

5th Round: 154th Overall - $330,400

6th Round: 184th Overall - $253,700

7th Round: 214th Overall - $198,700

8th Round: 244th Overall - $162,100

9th Round: 274th Overall - $146,500

10th Round: 304th Overall - $138,400

 

Total Bonus Pool: $5,933,000

 

You may have noticed that the Twins do not have a pick in round three. This is a result of the Lance Lynn signing this offseason as he had turned down a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Cardinals before the Twins signed him.

 

Additionally, the Twins initially had a pick in competitive balance round B (between rounds two and three). However, as part of the Phil Hughes trade from a week ago, that pick was sent to the San Diego Padres.

 

UPDATE 1, 8:20 AM CT

 

Here are links to some of the mock drafts that have been recently updated and the info on who the Twins are being projected to take at No. 20.

 

Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com:

 

20. Twins

Mayo: Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida -- The Twins are said to be mostly looking at college arms or high school bats, so they could opt for someone like Naylor or Schnell in this spot. But we'll stick with college pitching and McClanahan, who has slid a bit because of command issues, but still has a plus-plus fastball from the left side.

Callis: Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida -- Minnesota could grab the last college pitcher from the second tier before they're all gone. The Twins could be the lone team to make California shortstop Osiris Johnson a first-rounder, and Denaburg, Larnach and Naylor also are possibilities.

Baseball America staff:

 

20. Twins

Ethan Hankins

Forsyth Central HS, Cumming, Ga. RHP

Notes: Hankins figures to be in play starting around No. 20 and shouldn’t get past 30, though if it weren’t for an injury this spring there would be no chance he makes it this far down the board. The Twins could be thrilled to get a pitcher with the best fastball in the prep class and advanced command of the pitch as well.

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs:

 

20. Minnesota Twins – Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (CA)

The Twins have been tied to all kinds of players but figure to be more value-oriented than focused on a specific demographic. Turang looked like a potential 1-1 guy a year ago, and he’s in play at a number of picks before and after this one.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports:

 

20. Minnesota Twins: OF Connor Scott, Plant HS (Florida)

The Twins have gone heavy on high school players in recent years and, at this point, Scott is the best prep hitter still on the board. He's a potential four-tool player -- there are some questions about his long-term power potential -- with the kind of high-end tools and athleticism Minnesota has been targeting in recent years.

Previous Mock Selection: LHP Ryan Weathers, Loretto HS (Tennessee)

UPDATE 2, 9:25 AM CT

 

The Twins have just the 26th largest bonus pool to work with in this year’s draft. This means that they won’t have a lot of flexibility when making their picks in the first few rounds. This drastically changes their draft strategy from a year ago when the Twins had the largest bonus pool to work with among all 30 teams.

 

So, let’s take a look at a couple potential draft strategies that the Twins could employ this year.

 

The Portfolio Approach

 

The portfolio approach is a draft strategy that is based around the idea of trying to build depth from within your draft class by more evenly dispersing your bonus pool. The could mean that the Twins opt to pass on the best player available in the earlier rounds, and instead elect to draft a different player that they like whom will sign for a more economical dollar amount.

 

This was the strategy that the Twins went with last year, and they pulled it off beautifully. For all we know, Royce Lewis may have been the highest rated player on the Twins board going in, but he wasn’t thought of that way on the national stage before-hand. This allowed the Twins to sign Lewis for a full $1 million below his slot value. The Twins then saved another $450K when they drafted Landon Leach with the first pick in the second round.

 

These moves allowed the Twins to turn around and sign third round pick Blayne Enlow to a bonus of roughly $1.25 million above his slot value. Enlow was originally pegged as a first-round talent, but slipped in the draft when teams thought they would have difficulty signing him.

 

If the Twins wish to take a similar approach this year, it will most likely mean that they will try to focus on the college ranks, as these players are often easier to sign at or below their slot value, as opposed to top tier high school players who usually take a little bit more money to sign.

 

The Best Player Available Approach

 

Unlike the portfolio approach, the best player available approach is centered around taking the player you think is most talented with the first few picks in the draft, even if that means spending more than your slot value in order to sign him.

 

With the surplus of high school pitching that is available in the first round of this year’s draft, it’s quite possible that the highest rated player that the Twins have on their board when they make their selection at pick 20 is one of them.

 

While it’s entirely possible that the Twins could sign one of them to a bonus at or around their slot value, it will most likely take more than the $3.1 million they have in the first round to get him to pass on an opportunity to pitch in college where he could continue to build his stock.

 

If the Twins wish to go after one of these players, they will need to look to save money during some of their other picks in the first ten rounds. One of the more common ways that teams do this is by drafting college seniors as they can usually be signed at a bargain. This is because they don’t have the leverage of going back to college during the negotiation process.

 

While most teams don’t begin taking college seniors until their ninth and tenth round picks, the Twins could try to select a couple college seniors in rounds 5-7 when the savings on their bonus pool is greater.

 

UPDATE 3, 11:05 AM CT

 

Twins Daily draft guru Jeremy Nygaard has been busy molding young minds both on and off the basketball court, so he's had to take a step back in his coverage this year. Thankfully, he found some time this morning to share some thoughts on Twitter.

 

His prediction for the No. 20 pick is Canadian prep catcher Noah Naylor. Here's the string of Jeremy's Tweets below:

UPDATE 4, 12:57 PM CT

 

Perfect Game just released its most recent mock draft. Back on April 20, they were projecting the Twins would take high school right-hander Cole Winn out of California, then on May 10 they flipped to Ole Miss lefty Ryan Rolison. Their most recent mock prior to today was on May 24, where they had California high school shortstop Brice Turang going to Minnesota. They’ve got a new pick tabbed for the Twins in their final mock posted just a few minutes ago.

20. Minnesota Twins | Jackson Kowar, rhp, Florida

Kowar is viewed as potentially having higher upside than teammate Brady Singer, but also a significantly lower floor and higher risk. This also may be a spot for SoCal prep shortstop Brice Turang, as well.

UPDATE 5, 2:55 PM CT

Baseball America just released its final mock draft, and has also now listed Kowar as the Twins' pick.

 

20. Twins

Jackson Kowar

Florida RHP

Notes: The Twins could go with Gilbert if he gets here, but Kowar fits as well. They’d presumably also look long and hard before letting Mississippi lefthander Ryan Rolison get passed them, and there are still a number of high-upside prep arms Minnesota could target in this spot.

 

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[jimbo92107]

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

[ashbury]

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

If Mike Trout has offspring already, I would take a draft-and-follow strategy even if he is only 3 years old.

 

As for the thread topic, I have literally no hopes one way or the other for whom the Twins draft; they are too far down in the pecking order for me to form an independent opinion. I know that the team will express surprise that whoever they pick would have dropped that far.

[Broker]

We have a pretty young team as it stands so I'd stick with HS grads as much as possible. Try to keep our players young and in their prime as much as we can.

[Twins33]

I'm hoping a decent HS position player is there to take. I like Brice Turang, but not sure he makes it that far.

[gunnarthor]

Want Kowar or Rocker, if possible.

[HrbieFan]

I could see a C with one of the top 2 picks, but prefer to stick to BPA approach. Good arms and bats are always in need

[beckmt]

I am in the BPA camp.  Just have to keep having decent drafts and signing the players.  Just cannot miss on the first pick.  Only player I have seen I have doubts on is the pitcher with a lot of  stuff, but control issues.  Those seem to have a much bigger bust factor than most.

[markos]

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick.

 

With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively). 

[rdehring]

Doesn't look like they are going to be able to make some of the moves they did last year with guys like Enlow.  Just don't have the ammunition ($$$) to do it.

 

So that should put them taking who they view as the best player available when making each pick.

 

I could be dis-remembering, but didn't the amount when the penalty kicks in for bonuses after the 10th round go up to $125,000 last year?

 

Let's shock the world and see the Twins draft some 18 year old who turns into baseball's next phenom!  Does Manny Machado have any relatives in this draft? 

[Einstein1]

I'll just assume right now that they come out of round 1 with another SS.  

[Tom Froemming]

FYI, this article has now been updated to include some of the projected picks from the experts in their mock drafts. Five different sources, five different projected picks. This is gonna be fun.

[gunnarthor]

 

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick.

 

With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively). 

Agreed completely. A college pitcher might also get up here quicker (not that that should be the deciding factor) and be part of the Lewis/Kiriloff wave.

[gil4]

 

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

I hope we had him change his name to throw off the teams drafting ahead of us.

[Vanimal46]

We should get a better sense this year what profile of player the new regime prefers... The old regime loved toolsy HS OFs and college SP around this draft slot.

Edited June 4, 2018 by Vanimal46

[RatherBeGolfing]

Best pitcher available, it doesn't have to be hard.

[Tom Froemming]

I think between the two approaches Andrew detailed in the most recent update, I'd rather see the Twins go with the best player available approach. With a big strength of the system right now being guys between the ages of 18-20, I don't think it would be that bad of a thing if they were handcuffed into taking more college seniors earlier than they typically would on Day 2.

 

It may be a little nerve-racking to basically put all your eggs into one basket, but I say go for it. 

[CwK]

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers. Rany wrote an article on this from a Royals’ fan perspective for The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/375189/2018/05/31/kansas-city-royals-mlb-draft-2018-hitters/

[Mike Sixel]

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers. Rany wrote an article on this from a Royals’ fan perspective for The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/375189/2018/05/31/kansas-city-royals-mlb-draft-2018-hitters/

It's a good theory.... But then you have to be willing to trade top ten or so prospects away..... And sign them, and have a tiny window, since you have developed few pitchers.

[CwK]

I would take hitters high and take pitchers in quantity. Hitters have less risk of career-altering injury. Hope for best-case development or the learning of a new pitch to propel the pitchers.

[twinsfanstreif]

Best pitcher available, it doesn't have to be hard.

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think between the two approaches Andrew detailed in the most recent update, I'd rather see the Twins go with the best player available approach. With a big strength of the system right now being guys between the ages of 18-20, I don't think it would be that bad of a thing if they were handcuffed into taking more college seniors earlier than they typically would on Day 2.

 

It may be a little nerve-racking to basically put all your eggs into one basket, but I say go for it.

Once you get to pick 20, I really doubt there's a clear BPA. I think the target (for pick 1) should be a HS pitcher. For the next pick, I'm hoping one of the best remaining picks is a college or HS catcher (preferably college).

[Mike Sixel]

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

[Andrew Thares]

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

 

Sure, it happens. The bottomline is that it is so hard to find great pitching in today's game while you can piece together a lineup relatively easy. I am a firm believer that you draft as much pitching as possible and finding missing pieces among positions players through trades and FA is the way to go.

[nicksaviking]

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

 

Only two, but I agree. If anything, the Twins did go BPA in 2009, Kyle Gibson falling due to a relatively minor injury was all the talk. There was more talk about Gibson than there was about Trout at that time.

 

If anything, I'd think picking a toolsy HS outfielder in Aaron Hicks the year prior would have been a more likely reason for passing on another the following year. But, that's not too likely either. I'd bet if we could go back and look when the Twins were on the clock, way more mock drafts had Kyle Gibson sitting as BPA than they did Mike Trout. 

 

Seems to me, the other guy who was seen as a BPA but was sliding was James Paxton who fell due to sign-ability issues. Which were proven right since he opted not to sign.

[ashbury]

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk

And Grichuk was also an Angels pick, so really you could swap him and Trout for discussion purposes. So just Mitchell.

Edited June 4, 2018 by ashburyjohn
Inadvertently swapped the two players' names

[Tom Froemming]

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

[jkcarew]

20th overall picks...

 

1993 - Torii Hunter (of)

1994 - Terrence Long (1b)

1995 - David Yocum (p)

1996 - Eric Milton (p)

1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss)

1998 - CC Sabathia (p)

1999 - Vince Faison (of)

2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p)

2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p)

2002 - Denard Span (of)

2003 - Chad Cordero (p)

2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss)

2005 - Mark Pawelek (p)

2006 - Chris Parmelee (of)

2007 - Chris Withrow (p)

2008 - Josh Fields (p)

2009 - Chad Jenkins (p)

2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b)

2011 - Tyler Anderson (p)

2012 - Chris Stratton (p)

2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p)

2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b)

2015 - Richie Martin (ss)

2016 - Gavin Lux (ss)

2017 - David Peterson (p)

 

Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks.  Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years.  Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.

[jkcarew]

 

I'll just assume right now that they come out of round 1 with another SS.  

I'll take another SS!  About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams.  They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.