Twins top 10 prospects

[taune]

I thought it would be fun to put the top 10 Twins prospects currently. I will do an official top 50 next week, but I thought it would be fun to see what everyone else thinks. If you want you can put your own top 10's and see how we differ.

 

1. Miguel Sano- Had a monster year at the plate needs to cut down on the strikeouts and if he is going to remain at 3rd base he needs to shore that part up as well as he had over 40 errors at 3rd.

 

2. Byron Buxton- After getting off to a rough start in Pro Ball he is really raking now and showing the speed and ability that made him the number two pick in the draft.

 

3. Aaron Hicks- After some struggles in previous years it appears that Aaron Hicks has figured it out. A term that is used in basketball is perfect for him as he is a stat stuffer. Hicks had over 30 steals, 20 doubles, 10 triples, 10 hrs and 90 runs scored. Very likely Twins fans will see him roaming the outfield in Target Field sometime in 2013.

 

4. Oswaldo Arcia- Arcia is another guy that has put it all together after struggling at Fort Myers in 2011 after his monster start in Beloit. He is likely going to be the Twins minor league hitter of the year after hitting 15hr and 91 rbi's between Fort Myers and New Britain with an OPS over .900. The best comp I see from him is Jason Kubel with a little less power, but I think all Twins fans would take that.

 

5. Eddie Rosario- Rosario would have been right in the discussion for Twins minor league hitter of the year if he hadn't missed about a month with an injury. He is hitting over .300 with 12hr and 70 rbi's with another 20+ doubles. His play at 2nd base has been hit and miss with 17 errors on the year. It is still to be determined if he is going to be a 2nd baseman or a centerfielder, but his bat will make sure he is in the lineup one of those places every day.

 

6. Kyle Gibson- Gibson was the feel good story of the year coming back from Tommy John Surgery in July of 2011. The fact that he got all the way up to AAA this year was a testament to the hard work Kyle put in to get back and he should be commended for that. To add to that he picked up 1 or 2 ticks on his fastball which is really good as now he sits 92-93 instead of 90-91. Gibson will be given a few weeks off now and then head to instructionals and then to Spring Training where he will be given an opportunity to make the Twins rotation in 2013.

 

7. Jose Berrios- Berrios was taken with a supp pick this year for the Twins and he has dominated. In 11 games as a professional including 4 starts Berrios has gone 3-0 with a 1.17era. In 30.2 innings he has given up just 4 runs on just 15 hits. However, the stat that just blows my mind is he has only walked four guys while striking out a whopping 49 batters. He did that at just 18 years old. The sky is the limit for this kid he has by far the most upside in the organization and it will be interesting to see what the Twins do with him in 2013 whether they send him to Beloit or if they send him to extended and see what happens.

 

8. Max Kepler- Kepler has put together in 2012 his best year of his professional career even though we sometimes forget he is only 19 years old being that it is his 3rd year already. After taking his first two years to get used to America Kepler put up really good numbers in 2012. Kepler hit .297 with 10hr and 49rbi along with 16 doubles and 5 triples for an OPS of .925. The sky is the limit for Kepler who will head up to Beloit for his first year in fullseason ball in 2013.

 

9. Travis Harrison- Harrison has had a good, but not great rookie campaign for E-Town, but it is also important to keep in mind he is just 19 years old. Harrison hit for good average hitting over .300 in his first year with five homeruns and 27 rbi's along with 12 doubles and 4 triples for a OPS of .845. Those are very good numbers for your first professional year, but I was a little disappointed he did not hit for more power because he is a big powerful kid who will hit for power. The key is to be patient with him as the power will come. The bigger question is what is his postion really going to be as he committed 24 errors at 3rd base. If he wants to remain at 3rd he is going to have to improve that defense. I think he likely will return to E-town for another year, but it would not shock me to see him up in Beloit in 2013.

 

10. Kennys Vargas- After missing the beginning of the year serving his MLB suspension Vargas came on like wildfire and has skyrocketed up prospect lists. Vargas has the looks of a young David Ortiz and has performed like him since returning. Vargas is hitting .320 with 11hr and 36 rbi's along with 10 doubles and a triple for an OPS of 1.047. Vargas has taken the step from being a guy with talent to being a legit top 10 prospect who has the ability to be a major leaguer someday. He will likely go up to Fort Myers in 2013 to see if he continue to improve.

[Thrylos]

This must be Travis

 

Hard to argue with this, but if you put Buxton and Kepler in this because of potential/tools, you got to put Benson in the mix as well. Yeah he had a nasty season but was mostly hurt.

[taune]

Joe Benson is at a crossroads in his career. He has all the tools that those other guys have but he just can't stay healthy. I think it is only one maybe two years that he has played a full slate of games. Benson has to find a way to make it to the majors in 2013 for him to fufill his promise as he no longer is young for his level. I still think Benson can be a big contributer for the Twins going forward, but the clock is running out.

[taune]

and yes this is Travis

[Twins Twerp]

Really like the list. I am guessing most national scouts will put Buxton ahead of Sano. Saying that I agree Sano should be number one. I would also leave Benson out. He had a terrible year. I hope he can have a good comeback next year. I see him as a good fourth outfielder with all the outfielders we have. All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).

[THE DFC]

I have to say that I'm starting to get excited about our farm system. How much better is that list than what we've been used to in the last 3-4 years?

 

Call me crazy, but I think all 10 of those guys have star potential.

[nicksaviking]

Those bats are exciting. About the only complaint is that only two pitchers are worthy of the top ten. Hopefully another arm or two from the 2012 draft class can find their way onto the list next year.

[greengoblinrulz]

Ive got my top 25 list and the bad thing is how hard it is to make an arguement for many/any starting pitchers in the 2nd 10 also over hitters.

Goin on your list, Benson/Walker/Polanco/Hermann/Roberts/Pinto/Santana etc will be 2nd 10......BJ Hermsen is the only one that is definate for me in the mid teens and we all have argued about his velocity limitations. Guys like Madison Boer & Matt Summers didnt separate themselves in A ball, Top 10 2012 prospect Adrian Salcedo battles arm problems all yr, we know about Alex Wimmers and even ELIZ aces Hudson Boyd/Angel Mata didnt dominate either depsite ok numbers.

[jokin]

Those bats are exciting. About the only complaint is that only two pitchers are worthy of the top ten. Hopefully another arm or two from the 2012 draft class can find their way onto the list next year.

 

8 of 10 on this Top Ten List are/project as, OF/DH types, I would argue that Chris Parmelee makes it 9 of 10 (or 11) as long as Morneau stays a Twin. For the Twins to get out of the mess that they've got themselves in- in the Farm System, as well as with the Big Club- they need to balance this list out with more live arms and one or two MIs.

 

The Twins have drafted big numbers in the opening rounds for arms in both 2012 (10 of top 14 picks) and 2011 (8 of top 11). Clearly, this isn't offering intermediate-term help, with the exciting exception thus far from Berrios. (although there still may be a Top Ten List chance for Bard (any other I missed?) from 2012, and Wimmers, from the 2010 draft). The Twins are going to have to take the great risks necessary to acquire top-ten pitching talent and MIs by trading some of these top prospects and/or finding someone else young internationally and outbidding MLB competitors (as in the case of Miguel Sano).

[jokin]

Ive got my top 25 list and the bad thing is how hard it is to make an arguement for many/any starting pitchers in the 2nd 10 also over hitters.

Goin on your list, Benson/Walker/Polanco/Hermann/Roberts/Pinto/Santana etc will be 2nd 10......BJ Hermsen is the only one that is definate for me in the mid teens and we all have argued about his velocity limitations. Guys like Madison Boer & Matt Summers didnt separate themselves in A ball, Top 10 2012 prospect Adrian Salcedo battles arm problems all yr, we know about Alex Wimmers and even ELIZ aces Hudson Boyd/Angel Mata didnt dominate either depsite ok numbers.

 

Could Hermsen and Boyd possibly become Dave Goltz/Rick Reuschel-types? Big guys that eat a lot of innings and battle without necessarily carrying a strike-out pitch.

[Pius Jefferson]

What's the long term plan with the pitchers the Twins drafted this year? Except for Taylor Rogers they've all pitched out of the bullpen. I'd guess the two pitchers from Rice are going to be relievers, but what about Bard, Jones, and the others.

[taune]

Melotakis is going to stay a reliever, Bard is going to start those are the only ones that I know off hand

[joeboo_22]

I don't have a problem with the list. I like Benson but I don't know if he is in the prospect category now. I think if healthy he will have a solid major league career.

 

As far as other pitchers? I agree there isn't a ton of them in the organization.

[taune]

Oh of course Berrios is going to start

[greengoblinrulz]

there some intriguing pitchers that wont make any top list yet......Zach/Tyler Jones in BEL are 2 hardthrowing strikeout pitchers who can make some noise next yr

[SpantheMan]

It's interesting to wonder what positions these outfield prospects will play in the majors considering all out prospects. In my opinion Revere should be the LFer becuase of his arm and that LF is bigger than right at Target. I see Arcia as a replacement for Willingham except that he should play RF because his arm is a big stronger than Revere but he isn't as fast. Then you have Hick who is pretty much a lock to be a CFer considering his great arm and great speed. Obviously not all these guys will be stars but I think you have a good, cheap, young outfield within the next year, without even factoring benson or Buxton in (or rosario of 2b doesn't work out).

[old nurse]

It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

[Thrylos]

It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

 

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

 

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)

FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

 

Enough

[kab21]

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

 

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)

FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

 

Enough

 

Fact 2 is just ridiculous.

[old nurse]

It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

 

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

 

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)

FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

 

Enough

 

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.

[greengoblinrulz]

It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

 

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

 

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)

FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

 

Enough

 

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.

Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs

[jokin]

It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

 

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

 

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)

FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

 

Enough

 

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.

 

Thrylos was probably quoting Sano's DR League BB:K ratio when he actually was 19 (when was that? 3 years ago?)

 

For the record, Sano's BA is currently .260, not .235.

 

But the point is well taken, Sano has quite a journey ahead of him to try to match Thome's game, Sano's projection partner is scary, his current rate of production bears a more current resemblance to Adam Dunn's.....(Dunn at 19 in the Midwest Leauge: OPS 885/SO 64/BB 46/BA 307)

[Brad Swanson]

Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

 

Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

 

Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

 

Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

 

Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?

[jokin]

Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

 

Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

 

Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

 

Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

 

Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

 

Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?

 

When it's finally all said and done, I'll gladly settle for career numbers somewhere in-between Thome and Dunn.

[nicksaviking]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up about the 2012 pitching draft class until they have success in New Britain, but it is hard not to be optimistic that some of these guys will find their way onto the top ten list as very few have yet to stumble. While the sample sizes are small and most of these guys have only pitched an couple innings at a time in relief, it would seem that many, if not most of these guys should be in over their head during their first taste of pro ball, but I'd say only a couple pitchers drafted late really are in too deep.

 

Barrios- 49K/4BB, 30 IP, 1.17 ERA between GCL and E'ton

Bard- 7K/7BB, 7 IP, 3.86 ERA: GCL/E'ton

Melotakis- 34K/6BB, 24 IP, 1.88 ERA: E'ton/Beloit

Chargois- 22K/5BB, 16 IP, 1.69 ERA: E'ton

Jones- 31K/11BB, 19 IP, 2.37 ERA: E'ton/Beloit

Duffy- 27K/2BB, 19 IP, 1.42 ERA: E'ton

Martinez- 11K/9BB, 14 IP, 4.50 ERA: GCL

Powell- 30K/7BB 15, IP, 5.74 ERA: E'ton

Baxendale- 31K/2BB, 18 IP, 0.98 ERA: E'ton/Beloit

Rogers- 73K/17BB, 61 IP, 2.35 ERA: E'ton/Beloit

Muren- 12K/9BB, 24 IP, 1.46 ERA: GCL

Huber- 10K/8BB, 14 IP, 7.71 ERA: E'ton

Goldsmith- 5K/5BB, 4 IP, 6.75: GCL

Ferreira- 13K/7BB, 10 IP, 1.80 ERA: E'ton

Merck- 28K/6BB, 24 IP, 4.07 ERA: E'ton

 

These are the 15 pitchers from the 2012 draft class that have already got innings with the organization.

 

Only three are failing to strikeout a batter an inning, while Barrios, Melotakis, Chargois, Duffy, Baxendale, Rogers and Merck seem to have very little to no control issues at this point.

 

Only one of the top six pitchers taken has an ERA over 2.50, and nine of the 15 overall are lower than that figure.

 

Six of the pitchers got a mid-season promotion, and Chargois and Duffy, maybe even Merck deserved one too, but it's tough to find room for that many pitchers late in the year.

 

There is enough talent here, hopefully most of these guys get a shot at starting and can carry over most of the success they have had in relief. We won't know if drafting relievers and transforming them into starters is going to work for several years, but with the success up to this point, I would not be surprised if the Twins take the same approach in next years draft.

[Shane Wahl]

Benson would replace Vargas (want to see V get a full season at Fort Myers first), but that is a very good and accurate top 9.

 

One thing is certain and that is that the Twins system is now very good or great through Beloit. Then it is very good again at New Britain.

[taune]

I along with Seth Stohs made the trek to Beloit to see these guys and the thing that I came out from Sano is he has the physical tools to stay at 3rd base. I think it is a maturity and focus thing more than a physical thing. In pregame warm ups he can move laterally and he makes all the plays in pregame. This was my 2nd year going and Seth's 3rd year and we both agreed that he is a freak that will only improve. Some of the strikeouts that we saw were borderline pitches that I don't want him swinging at anyway. I came away feeling like Sano has all the god given tools to be a monster. I think we all just need to take a step back and let him develop at his pace. I may be in the minority but I believe he can play at 3rd base. His bat is going to be huge and I think he can put up Miguel Cabrera type numbers as he moves up. Miguel Sano is the least of my worries about the Twins farm system he will be just fine.

[kab21]

The ridiculous part of thrylos comments is that comparing a prospect's stat line (esp in low A) to HOF (and all star) players is ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with striking out at the rates that Sano does but it's difficult to maintain those rates as you move up in the minors. The scouting reports also suggest that there are concerns with strikeouts.

 

I don't really understand what the discussion is about. i think everyone has him rated #1 on the Twins list and he looks like he'll be top 25 on most lists. He is a really, really good prospect but if you ignore the flaws then you are in for a letdown.

[TRex]

I tend to agree with thrylos' comment, but only because I find myself finishing old nurse's statement as "He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often"... OR HE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE BIG LEAGUES.

 

However, old nurse may wish to complete his/her sentence as ... or he will not become an All Star (or HOFer), in which case I would be in complete agreement.

[Shane Wahl]

I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

 

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.