What Does a Byron Buxton Trade Look Like?

[Jham]

Probably more than that during the off-season.

That's what I was thinking. maybe wouldn't have signed Lynn, and maybe not Lomo, for good or bad... I'd like our chances. not giving up on Buxton at all, btw. you have to give up to get.

[Vanimal46]

First there is no way I trade him. Do we really need more minor league prospects? So the trade would have to be for a established major league player that isn't too old. Don't see that happening.

 

He is 24 years old with a career WAR of 6.9, I am not trading that.

It wouldn't hurt to have more prospects in AAA considering there are no position players who can help the MLB team...

[Mike Sixel]

It wouldn't hurt to have more prospects in AAA considering there are no position players who can help the MLB team...

Now that Gordon is there.... And I do think cave has a shot at bring a fourth OF.

[jkcarew]

His WAR is inflated by defensive metrics which overstate the value of his defense...even as outstanding as it is.  No matter how outstanding a center-fielder's defense is, he's just not going to have any real value if he hits to an OPS in the 500's (and well below) for months and half-seasons at a time.

 

Having said that, I agree with those that suggest it's already too late to trade him.  Too little reward on selling low on a top prospect, with too high risk of regret.  We just did this with Hicks...albeit on a somewhat lower scale of reward/regret.  At some point, something will have to give.  But for now...play him, play him, play him.

 

If history's any indicator, he'll be at least serviceable offensively in the 2nd half.  I'll look forward to that.

But I'd love to get 6 months of Paul Blair...or even Gary Pettis, at this point.  We could win with that.

[Brandon Warne]

But...why?

[Vanimal46]

But...why?

The crippling fear that he's a .225 hitter and not the hitter we saw in the 2nd half last season. Recouping a good reward before it becomes obvious he may just be a bad hitter.

[laloesch]

 

Untradeable at this point. If you trade Buxton, you're basically saying "our organization is so bad that we can't develop a can't miss talent". The Twins would be criticized for years and when Buxton starts producing it could be a decade of misery for Twins fans and coaches. Upper management would lose their jobs.

 

At this point they wouldn't get anything good for him. The risk isn't worth the reward. Falvine's job is to get Buxton to hit. Period. They give up on Bux, and he succeeds? Say adios to your MLB jobs forever, dudes.

 

Buxton's failure to become a serviceable MLB player has really put this organization in a no-win situation. They just have to stick with him, no other options. They should start trying sport psychologists, yoga, meditation, tuning-fork therapy.....just throw everything against the wall and see what sticks.

 

It's not just Buxton it's also Sano.  Both these players are driving the fans and organization crazy with their wild inconsistencies offensively.  Sano swings for the fences in every at-bat and get suckered all the time by offspeed stuff hence his atrocious 43% strikeout rate.  Buxton follows a similar routine except he almost never connects on anything but still sports an awful 31% strikeout rate.  Both these guys need to go down to AAA IMMEDIATELY because of the lack of plate discipline and lack of pitch recognition. 

LOMO, Adrianza and Grossman are lost causes. 

[Tomj14]

 

It wouldn't hurt to have more prospects in AAA considering there are no position players who can help the MLB team...

Is there really any AAA prospects (position players) out there now?

[Tom Froemming]

The answer is bad. A Byron Buxton trade looks bad. You'd be trading him at his absolute lowest value. If anything, I'd be calling up his agent to work out an extension right now.

[Vanimal46]

The answer is bad. A Byron Buxton trade looks bad. You'd be trading him at his absolute lowest value. If anything, I'd be calling up his agent to work out an extension right now.

By that same logic, why would he accept an extension now if he's at his lowest value? Plus, didn't he already turn down an extension before the season?

[gunnarthor]

 

The crippling fear that he's a .225 hitter and not the hitter we saw in the 2nd half last season. Recouping a good reward before it becomes obvious he may just be a bad hitter.

The last two years he's been a .240/.300/.420 hitter so over the course of a season so I would probably put that at his baseline for this year. He's just not as bad as he's playing right now. I don't know why he's this bad - I suspect he's putting a ton of pressure on himself which isn't helping. He has too much talent to put up a 20 OPS+. 

 

[jimbo92107]

Stupid to trade Buxton. He's going to be an All Star, but he's a slow developer. Took him a year to learn how to bunt, a year to learn how to steal bases. It will take him another couple years to solidify his approach at the plate. Nobody better on the horizon, assuming Royce Lewis plays infield. Buxton isn't the instant superstar we wanted, but he will become at least solid offensively, given time to develop.

[Mike Sixel]

Stupid to trade Buxton. He's going to be an All Star, but he's a slow developer. Took him a year to learn how to bunt, a year to learn how to steal bases. It will take him another couple years to solidify his approach at the plate. Nobody better on the horizon, assuming Royce Lewis plays infield. Buxton isn't the instant superstar we wanted, but he will become at least solid offensively, given time to develop.

If that is the timeline.... He'll be great when he is a free agent, give or take a year.... That's not good news, if it takes two more years or more....

[Thrylos]

 

Stupid to trade Buxton. He's going to be an All Star, but he's a slow developer. Took him a year to learn how to bunt, a year to learn how to steal bases. It will take him another couple years to solidify his approach at the plate. Nobody better on the horizon, assuming Royce Lewis plays infield. Buxton isn't the instant superstar we wanted, but he will become at least solid offensively, given time to develop.

 

If he develops that way, he might be an All Star at 33 when playing for the Yankees

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Problem with that is if he hits around .200, that makes him a 4th outfielder.  If this is your belief. trade him now before the league draws the same conclusion and he has no trade value.  That is the Twins quandary at this time. 

 

Trade him for what though? A fourth outfielder prospect?? LOL. He won't net anyone worth much so why trade? If you are trading him for potential, just keep the potential he has and see if he figures it out. Dumb to trade him for sure and it will 100% not happen. 

 

PS, the league has film too on his hitting. They know he cannot hit his weight. Either way, I wouldn't trade him unless if was for a young controllable player already in the league who is producing. It's not worth it for the Twins to send him out for another question mark. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

If he develops that way, he might be an All Star at 33 when playing for the Yankees

actually those guys peaked/matured closer to age 27, when CarGo made the All Star game and Hicks OPSd .847.  Buxton will arrive before that. 

[ewen21]

 

Three names for you;

 

Gomez, Span and Hicks.

 

All of them traded, all of them still playing.

 

And the players the Twins got in return?

Hicks has a career .232 BA and a career OPS under .700

Span was never this bad as a hitter.  As a matter of fact, in his first two seasons he hit .294 and .311 with an OPS above .800 in both seasons.

Gomez had some success with Milwaukee, but since then he has been putrid.

 

Not sure how these names apply other than they are all CF.

 

Buxton has some horrendous career numbers from April through June.  That is, 91 for 497, which equals a .183 batting average.

 

Optimism is nice, but at some point it loses out to reality.

 

Will he turn it around?  I honestly don't know.

I guess we will find out, but it is most certainly painful to watch him hit right now.  About as bad as anything I have seen AND when you consider all the hype and accolades this is almost unheard of.  NOt sure what other teams would "give up" for him at this point.

[markos]

I'm not advocating this, but I see a decent argument for trading Buxton:

First,

- 2018 looks like it will be a lost year for the Twins. It was supposed to be a step forward, but instead it looks like a step back.

- 2019 was always going to be a quasi-rebuilding year with so much talent (Mauer-Santana-Dozier-Escobar) potentially leaving.

So, how does Buxton fix into a competitive window starting in 2020?

- He is a free agent after 2021.

- If he is a superstar player, then it doesn't matter (you keep your stars). But Buxton's bat might cap him as a 3-4 WAR player rather than a legitimate superstar (update projection systems have him as a 2.5-3 WAR player over a full season now).

- If he leaves after 2021, that sucks the wind out of whatever they are building for 2022 - even a 3-4 WAR player is hard to replace via free agency or trades.

So, it does make some sense to trade Buxton for a player or players that better fit a competitive window starting in 2020. The key is to not give him away. Priced as a 3-4 WAR player over the next 3+ season, he should fetch at least a top-25 prospect.

 

As a hypothetical, I can see a trade that makes sense with Colorado. They are in a win-now moment, and their outfield has been disappointing. They have Brendan Rodgers, a top-20 SS prospect currently raking in AA, but a crowded infield. I would swap Buxton for Rodgers. Colorado could probably get a better player than Buxton, but I doubt they could get higher upside with equivalent team control. And that is the kind of high-variance move that makes sense when competing in the same division as a team like the Dodgers. 

 

Also, note that you can basically make the exact same argument with Sano.

[TheLeviathan]

Too much to lose, not enough to gain.

 

Also, I’m glad we have continued our thread streak of everything is Molitor’s fault. Soon to come: Molly sets the beer prices and created cancer.

[Vanimal46]

I'm not advocating this, but I see a decent argument for trading Buxton:

First,

- 2018 looks like it will be a lost year for the Twins. It was supposed to be a step forward, but instead it looks like a step back.

- 2019 was always going to be a quasi-rebuilding year with so much talent (Mauer-Santana-Dozier-Escobar) potentially leaving.

So, how does Buxton fix into a competitive window starting in 2020?

- He is a free agent after 2021.

- If he is a superstar player, then it doesn't matter (you keep your stars). But Buxton's bat might cap him as a 3-4 WAR player rather than a legitimate superstar (update projection systems have him as a 2.5-3 WAR player over a full season now).

- If he leaves after 2021, that sucks the wind out of whatever they are building for 2022 - even a 3-4 WAR player is hard to replace via free agency or trades.

So, it does make some sense to trade Buxton for a player or players that better fit a competitive window starting in 2020. The key is to not give him away. Priced as a 3-4 WAR player over the next 3+ season, he should fetch at least a top-25 prospect.

 

As a hypothetical, I can see a trade that makes sense with Colorado. They are in a win-now moment, and their outfield has been disappointing. They have Brendan Rodgers, a top-20 SS prospect currently raking in AA, but a crowded infield. I would swap Buxton for Rodgers. Colorado could probably get a better player than Buxton, but I doubt they could get higher upside with equivalent team control. And that is the kind of high-variance move that makes sense when competing in the same division as a team like the Dodgers.

 

Also, note that you can basically make the exact same argument with Sano.

I appreciate the thoughtful response and even proposing a team that could theoretically use Buxton.

 

I don't advocate trading Buxton right now either.... But man, in a hypothetical world where Buxton for Rodgers + something were on the table, I'd have a hard time saying no.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Too much to lose, not enough to gain.

Also, I’m glad we have continued our thread streak of everything is Molitor’s fault. Soon to come: Molly sets the beer prices and created cancer.

 

I KNEW IT!

[jimbo92107]

 

If that is the timeline.... He'll be great when he is a free agent, give or take a year.... That's not good news, if it takes two more years or more....

That's the problem with drafting kids that are "very raw." Buxton was a physical freeek that barely knew how to play the game of baseball. Now he's gradually absorbing years of professional training. It's a long term investment. I still believe he is headed for stardom, but yeah, it's gonna cost a lot of money to hang onto his services. 

[jimbo92107]

 

If he develops that way, he might be an All Star at 33 when playing for the Yankees

Yup, that could very well happen. He'll be a star at some point, but his price tag could be too much for the humble Pohlad budget. 

[Mr. Brooks]

That's the problem with drafting kids that are "very raw." Buxton was a physical freeek that barely knew how to play the game of baseball. Now he's gradually absorbing years of professional training. It's a long term investment. I still believe he is headed for stardom, but yeah, it's gonna cost a lot of money to hang onto his services.

But there are guys drafted/signed at 16-18 years old, all over the league, who were every bit as raw as Buxton who come up and become stars right away.

I'm not saying Buxton can't still become a star, but I don't think his struggles can be dismissed with a general rule that young raw draft picks take a long time to develop.

[jimbo92107]

 

But there are guys drafted/signed at 16-18 years old, all over the league, who were every bit as raw as Buxton who come up and become stars right away.
I'm not saying Buxton can't still become a star, but I don't think his struggles can be dismissed with a general rule that young raw draft picks take a long time to develop.

The difference is that elusive "sports IQ" idea. Consider Eddie Rosario. Not as physically gifted as Buxton, but you can see him calculating and scheming constantly during a game. For all his physical talent, Buxton does not have that mentality. That is why, if I had to keep just one, I would keep Rosario over Buxton. 

 

Fortunately, some of that can be learned. Buxton has learned how to read a pitcher's move to first so that he can get a better jump to steal second. He has learned better form to get a quicker start stealing. He has learned better form bunting, tho right now it looks like he's having to re-learn how to hit. It could be that every aspect of baseball has to be drilled into Buxton's head over and over, for his whole career. He'll still be fun to watch. Every player is different. 

[Old Twins Cap]

Buxton back to the DL, so there's that.

 

Toe migraine apparently.  jk

[jtkoupal]

Here is what a Byron Buxton trade looks like:

 

" ___________________________________ "

 

It doesn't happen. You can't sell a prospect with that much potential for minimal value because of an injury-plagued 2-month stretch where he hasn't played well.

 

Buxton has lots of upside.

Buxton has very little trade value.

 

Unless someone wows you with a Chris Archer or someone of the sort, Buxton isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[Oxtung]

 

I'm not advocating this, but I see a decent argument for trading Buxton:

First,

- 2018 looks like it will be a lost year for the Twins. It was supposed to be a step forward, but instead it looks like a step back.

- 2019 was always going to be a quasi-rebuilding year with so much talent (Mauer-Santana-Dozier-Escobar) potentially leaving.

So, how does Buxton fix into a competitive window starting in 2020?

- He is a free agent after 2021.

- If he is a superstar player, then it doesn't matter (you keep your stars). But Buxton's bat might cap him as a 3-4 WAR player rather than a legitimate superstar (update projection systems have him as a 2.5-3 WAR player over a full season now).

- If he leaves after 2021, that sucks the wind out of whatever they are building for 2022 - even a 3-4 WAR player is hard to replace via free agency or trades.

So, it does make some sense to trade Buxton for a player or players that better fit a competitive window starting in 2020. The key is to not give him away. Priced as a 3-4 WAR player over the next 3+ season, he should fetch at least a top-25 prospect.

 

As a hypothetical, I can see a trade that makes sense with Colorado. They are in a win-now moment, and their outfield has been disappointing. They have Brendan Rodgers, a top-20 SS prospect currently raking in AA, but a crowded infield. I would swap Buxton for Rodgers. Colorado could probably get a better player than Buxton, but I doubt they could get higher upside with equivalent team control. And that is the kind of high-variance move that makes sense when competing in the same division as a team like the Dodgers. 

 

Also, note that you can basically make the exact same argument with Sano.

 

2020 might be a quasi-rebuilding year as well. Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda, Santana (if he doesn't leave after this season), Rodney, Reed, Pressly and Castro will all be leaving. That is a significant part of what is quietly becoming the strength of this team in the rotation and the bullpen heading elsewhere.

 

I think the Twins either need to extend control of Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco or start to envision a future where some or all of those players are not here. At this point I'm not advocating actively shopping any of those players but I think we need to start opening our mind to trades in the next year or so.

[jokin]

 

I appreciate the thoughtful response and even proposing a team that could theoretically use Buxton.

I don't advocate trading Buxton right now either.... But man, in a hypothetical world where Buxton for Rodgers + something were on the table, I'd have a hard time saying no.

 

At Buxton's current value, the Twins would consider themselves lucky to get a lesser prospect like Danny Jensen C or Nate Pearson SP from the Blue Jays.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Too much to lose, not enough to gain.

 

Also, I’m glad we have continued our thread streak of everything is Molitor’s fault. Soon to come: Molly sets the beer prices and created cancer.

its a heck of a lot easier to fire and replace a manager than it is to replace a whole 40 man roster.

 

Looking at the results of the last 3 years and the contract situation/payroll for next year... it might be both in 19