What Does a Byron Buxton Trade Look Like?

[Vanimal46]

Let's try to take our biased hats off and think of Buxton's value as a fan of a different team.

 

Last year he made several "Trade Value Player Ranking" lists like SI and Fangraphs... Can his potential still be sold 1,000+ PAs into his career?

 

If teams outside of the Twins buy into his potential, what would the return look like?

[gunnarthor]

Remember the threads we had when Profar was injured and blocked in the Rangers threads? Probably about that price or maybe a bit more since he's not hurt like Profar was.

 

If I'm another team, I'd try to buy low on Buxton and assume better coaching/manager can fix it since he's been pretty good at every level in the minors and, at worst, plays strong defense.

 

If I'm the Twins, I'd try to change managers before I changed the players but that's another thread.

[beckmt]

I think you could trade him, but return would be much lower than his value.  Only way I would is if I was convinced that we had seen all that he was at this time, before the rest of the league caught on. 

I for one do not believe this is the case.

[Vanimal46]

Remember the threads we had when Profar was injured and blocked in the Rangers threads? Probably about that price or maybe a bit more since he's not hurt like Profar was.

 

If I'm another team, I'd try to buy low on Buxton and assume better coaching/manager can fix it since he's been pretty good at every level in the minors and, at worst, plays strong defense.

 

If I'm the Twins, I'd try to change managers before I changed the players but that's another thread.

I'm wondering what buying low on Buxton looks like... A team would still have to include a top 100 prospect or 2, no?

[Blake]

Three names for you;

 

Gomez, Span and Hicks.

 

All of them traded, all of them still playing.

 

And the players the Twins got in return?

[USAFChief]

I don't think you can trade Buxton at this point. I mean, you could, but you wouldn't get the return to make it worth your while.

 

At this point, you're all in. Play him and hope it gets better.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yep, he's untradeable.

 

What if he figures out how to hit?

[Mike Sixel]

It looks bad, and not worth it.

 

I think.

 

But yes, still worth two top 100 players most likely.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm wondering what buying low on Buxton looks like... A team would still have to include a top 100 prospect or 2, no?

Well, assuming the Twins were actually willing to trade him and a market opened up, I figure one backend top 100 type? I think if other teams heard that the Twins would be willing to move Buxton they'd have two thoughts: either "wow, what do they know that we don't?. Do we want to take a flyer?" or "Wow, they're nuts, we can fix that." If two teams think the second way, we'd probably get a low top 100 guy.

 

Seattle moved Gordon back to 2B so they could use a CF in their large park. Maybe a small package around injured prospect Kyle Lewis? He's an OFer with some pop but probably a corner one. He's 22 and hasn't played much in two years due to injuries but he's still their best prospect. I assume Seattle would do that trade in a heartbeat even with Span.

 

That said, you don't often see trades of former top prospects for a reason. Twins are going to stick with Buxton and he's got to get better. He's striking out too much and not walking enough but he also has a stupidly low babip. 

[Vanimal46]

Yep, he's untradeable.

 

What if he figures out how to hit?

Life as a Twins fan would be so much easier if he figures this out... The clock is ticking.

[Mill1634]

Don't. Even if he never figures things out at the plate he will be the best defensive outfielder in the league for the next 7 or 8 years. 

[Puckett34]

 

Three names for you;

 

Gomez, Span and Hicks.

 

All of them traded, all of them still playing.

 

And the players the Twins got in return?

You forgot Revere too.  But he's playing in AAA right now.   

 

However, in a vacuum, all 4 of those trades were understandable.  

 

Gomez trade netted JJ Hardy.  

 

Span got the Twins Alex Meyer, a project to be fair, but a good prospect for a farm system desperate for pitching.  

 

Hicks trade got the JRM, who was coming off a decent season with the Yankees, but to be fair was a small sample size in 67 games.

 

In the Revere trade, that got them Trevor May and Worley.   May is decent when healthy.   Worley on the other hand is nausea inducing.

 

Having said all that, trading 4 MLB starting center fielders in a 4-5 year time frame is not good practice. 

[Blake]

 

You forgot Revere too.  But he's playing in AAA right now.   

 

However, in a vacuum, all 4 of those trades were understandable.  

 

Gomez trade netted JJ Hardy.  

 

Span got the Twins Alex Meyer, a project to be fair, but a good prospect for a farm system desperate for pitching.  

 

Hicks trade got the JRM, who was coming off a decent season with the Yankees, but to be fair was a small sample size in 67 games.

 

In the Revere trade, that got them Trevor May and Worley.   May is decent when healthy.   Worley on the other hand is nausea inducing.

 

Having said all that, trading 4 MLB starting center fielders in a 4-5 year time frame is not good practice. 

Fair enough.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Having said all that, trading 4 MLB starting center fielders in a 4-5 year time frame is not good practice. 

 

The reason those trades happened was because they thought that they had ready replacements and were wrong by about 2-3 years in every case (including replacing Hunter with Gomez) but Span's.

 

I don't see any ready replacements here above A ball, so any Buxton trade should come with his replacement.

[The_Phantom]

 

You forgot Revere too.  But he's playing in AAA right now.   

 

However, in a vacuum, all 4 of those trades were understandable.  

 

Gomez trade netted JJ Hardy.  

 

Span got the Twins Alex Meyer, a project to be fair, but a good prospect for a farm system desperate for pitching.  

 

Hicks trade got the JRM, who was coming off a decent season with the Yankees, but to be fair was a small sample size in 67 games.

 

In the Revere trade, that got them Trevor May and Worley.   May is decent when healthy.   Worley on the other hand is nausea inducing.

 

Having said all that, trading 4 MLB starting center fielders in a 4-5 year time frame is not good practice. 

 

Yeah, the Gomez for Hardy trade wasn't a bad trade. 

 

The trade that we made to get RID of hardy, however...

[mazeville]

Don't make the trade, but mostly because I still think the price the Twins should extract would be higher than teams would pay. 

 

I mean, I think the Twins need to send him down immediately. He is a sub-zero WAR player right now, even with his defense. Let him play in AAA for a month, get his confidence back up, etc. 

 

But the longer Buxton plays the way he's thus far demonstrated in his major league career, the lower the price on a trade.

 

Depressing. 

[Jham]

I'm perpetually miffed at how poor our scouts evaluate our own guys, let alone other team's or amateur. Or the FO is too stubborn to admit or too gutless to move on.

 

The Rays traded Delmon, similarly rated prospect to Buxton. He had some good years but never came close to the hype. They recognized this early and got near max return value.

 

This is why I hate the "call them up and see what we got" pleas. why can't we know 90% what's there before then? As others have noted, failing reduces trade value a ton. Buxton is arb eligible now. If he figures stuff out he won't be cheap and controllable. His speed and defense will slide incrementally the rest of his career.

 

We should probably trade or extend. Buxton already refused an extension once, apparently. So maybe a Dozier deal buying out arbitration.

[beckmt]

 

I'm wondering what buying low on Buxton looks like... A team would still have to include a top 100 prospect or 2, no?

Right now I am guessing it would be an interesting but not a top prospect.  Maybe in the 5 - 10 range in a top rated system or maybe even less.

I am sure Twins have gotten a number of buy low offers on Buxton this year. It never hurts to ask.

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

If I'm the Twins, I'd try to change managers before I changed the players but that's another thread.

This. I think we're going to start seeing more 'Fire Paul' articles in the near future.

[beckmt]

 

Don't. Even if he never figures things out at the plate he will be the best defensive outfielder in the league for the next 7 or 8 years. 

Problem with that is if he hits around .200, that makes him a 4th outfielder.  If this is your belief. trade him now before the league draws the same conclusion and he has no trade value.  That is the Twins quandary at this time. 

[mickeymental]

trade him for paul blair.

[Jham]

Could we have gotten Garrett Cole and McCutchen for Buck last year...?

[Dantes929]

Not even up for discussion in my book.   If you wanted to trade him you do it after his great half last season.  Nothing they get will have the potential he has now.    If you want to send him down for a while to maybe get his confidence back, fine.    This team will not turn in to what we want it to be without Buxton turning into who we want him to be.

[Jacksson]

Whoever is working with Buxton now is not working out. Time to swallow their pride and bring Bruno back as as special Buxton consultant

[Mike Sixel]

Not even up for discussion in my book. If you wanted to trade him you do it after his great half last season. Nothing they get will have the potential he has now. If you want to send him down for a while to maybe get his confidence back, fine. This team will not turn in to what we want it to be without Buxton turning into who we want him to be.

Pretty much this

 

As down on him as I am.... He's 24.... And this team succeeds or fails with it's potential stars....

[bighat]

Untradeable at this point. If you trade Buxton, you're basically saying "our organization is so bad that we can't develop a can't miss talent". The Twins would be criticized for years and when Buxton starts producing it could be a decade of misery for Twins fans and coaches. Upper management would lose their jobs.

 

At this point they wouldn't get anything good for him. The risk isn't worth the reward. Falvine's job is to get Buxton to hit. Period. They give up on Bux, and he succeeds? Say adios to your MLB jobs forever, dudes.

 

Buxton's failure to become a serviceable MLB player has really put this organization in a no-win situation. They just have to stick with him, no other options. They should start trying sport psychologists, yoga, meditation, tuning-fork therapy.....just throw everything against the wall and see what sticks.

[Vanimal46]

Not even up for discussion in my book. If you wanted to trade him you do it after his great half last season. Nothing they get will have the potential he has now. If you want to send him down for a while to maybe get his confidence back, fine. This team will not turn in to what we want it to be without Buxton turning into who we want him to be.

I'm curious if others outside of the organization still buy into his potential or not. Because the first 1000+ PAs have been mostly not good.

 

He's not the first, and certainly not the last top prospect to not live up to his hype. Right now there is mountain sized gap between his actual results and potential.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm curious if others outside of the organization still buy into his potential or not. Because the first 1000+ PAs have been mostly not good.

 

He's not the first, and certainly not the last top prospect to not live up to his hype. Right now there is mountain sized gap between his actual results and potential.

Keith law does. He told me so on Twitter a couple weeks ago.

[Thrylos]

 

Could we have gotten Garrett Cole and McCutchen for Buck last year...?

 

Probably more than that during the off-season.

[Tomj14]

First there is no way I trade him. Do we really need more minor league prospects? So the trade would have to be for a established major league player that isn't too old. Don't see that happening.

 

He is 24 years old with a career WAR of 6.9, I am not trading that.