Article: KC 2, MIN 1: Every Game is the Same Game

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'd say that the Indians are underachieving, but they're still 3 games over .500 and 4.5 games clear at the moment.  It's true, if they were performing as expected they should be in a better position.  

 

There's still a lot of baseball to be played and I also expect the bats to pick up, but this team hasn't been able to capitalize on Cleveland's early struggles and they may be finding their groove.  By the time the Twins bats come to life, if that happens at all, it may be too late.  They've been extremely fortunate that they aren't in a bigger hole considering how poorly they've been playing.

 

I guess I just don't understand the concept "The Indians have been underperforming but the Twins are a bust because this is who they are." Seems like there are two assumptions there: that the Indians are a good baseball team and the Twins are not.

 

This could be who the Indians are and this could be a blip for the Twins as the bats take off in June and the pitching stays solid (or improves with Santana back and Lynn improving).

 

[Tom Froemming]

I like to always give the opponent credit when credit is due. Gordon made a beautiful throw to nail Dozier at the plate and that was a pretty epic blast by Alcides to end it. But, that Royals pitching staff "deserved" to give up more than one run. 

 

The Twins drew eight walks and had a hit by pitch, you gotta come away with more than one run, even if that was stretched across 14 innings. 

 

Back to that Gordon play, I liked Glynn sending Dozier there at the time. Obviously it didn't work out and that proved to be costly, but with this offense struggling to score I think it's wise to take a chance like that. 

 

When Buxton was on, I think the hard-throwing battery of Kelvin Herrera and Drew Butera may have scared off the Twins from trying to steal, but why not give it a shot and make them make a play? At this point, I'd much rather see the Twins lose because they were trying to be over aggressive in trying to create some offense.

[jokin]

 

When I saw him come in last night I thought "awww jeeez. Could we be looking at Buxton's MLB future"?

 

What I really hope does not happen is that the Twins end up trading him for chopped liver, and he goes on to great success elsewhere. It's happened before with Hicks. It's embarrassing to see the Twins bungle can't miss talent. I think we're all very angry right now so I am aware I'm probably being a bit over dramatic.

 

I find it strange that Buxton sat last night after putting the ball in play 4 times and getting a hit in Game 1.

 

Duffy has a history of dominating Buxton.

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by jokin

[Tom Froemming]

 

Count me in as worried. It worries me that Tom's pitch-count matrix shows that four of the seven relievers have pitched in three of the last four games. And Reed has pitched in four of the last five. Some of that is due to extended extra-inning games, but still, it seems like we should see some fresh arms getting off the plane in KC this morning.

Rodney also warmed up last night, I believe more than once. That's obviously not as laborious as if he'd pitched, but it wasn't exactly a day off for him. The big worry is that this bullpen won't be fresh for the Cleveland series, but I agree, it seems likely there will be some shuffling to add a new arm in the bullpen.

 

I guess I just don't understand the concept "The Indians have been underperforming but the Twins are a bust because this is who they are." Seems like there are two assumptions there: that the Indians are a good baseball team and the Twins are not.

 

This could be who the Indians are and this could be a blip for the Twins as the bats take off in June and the pitching stays solid (or improves with Santana back and Lynn improving).

The big difference to me is the thing that's holding Cleveland back is their bullpen. Their relievers have combined to a 6.08 ERA, worst in baseball. I think it's more likely that the Cleveland bullpen stabilizes than the Twins offense does, though it's certainly realistic to expect both of those units to improve over the course of the rest of the season.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I checked Gameday just in time to see someone named Scott Barlow strike out Sano, Escobar and Kepler on 10 pitches in the 12th inning. Is this guy a secret bullpen ace or was every Twins hitter trying to take the lead with one swing at that point?

[ThejacKmp]

 

You are literally including the only real solid game of the season Grossman has had, and your numbers are still wrong. 

 

Grossman April 26-May 29: .276/.366/.390  (.756 ops)

Grossman April 27 - May 29: .247/.348/,315  (..663 ops)

 

In the month of May his OPS is .586.  I don't know in what world that's an acceptable OPS for an every day player who can't play defense

 

Baseball Reference doesn’t have yesterday’s game up yet but 4/26 to 5/28 is .779 OPS. Not sure why you’re upset about that? Those are the numbers. Yeah they start with a good game. That’s the way you do it when you’re saying someone has turned it around after a slow start that makes their overall numbers look worse than they actually are. Just like how you pick May to show Robbie is struggling and ignore the end of April.

 

That is not Grossman’s only solid game:

4/21: 2/4 with a 2B
4/26: 3/4 with a 2B and HR
4/27: 3/4 with a 2B and BB
4/30: 2/4 with a 2B and BB
5/07: 3/4 with a 2B
5/08: 1/4 with a 2B and 2 BB
5/11: 2/4
5/13: 2/4 with a 2B
5/19: 1/2 with 2 BB
5/21: 1/2 with a BB and a SF
5/28: 2/4 with a BB

 

Robbie Grossman is miscast being an everyday player. But the Twins have had significant injuries to Mauer, Sano and Buxton and that’s mean more Grossman than you’d ideally want (4-5 times a week and a lot of DHing instead of 2-3 times a week and a lot of pinch hitting). That doesn’t make Robbie Grossman a bad player or the scapegoat for the Twins struggles. He’s just had to play out of role. As Mauer comes back and Buxton (hopefully) starts to hit, you’ll see Robbie fade back into a more natural role – 1 or 2 OF starts per week and some PH duties when the Twins need a solid professional at-bat.

[ThejacKmp]

 

When Buxton was on, I think the hard-throwing battery of Kelvin Herrera and Drew Butera may have scared off the Twins from trying to steal, but why not give it a shot and make them make a play? At this point, I'd much rather see the Twins lose because they were trying to be over aggressive in trying to create some offense.

Agreed. Totally different if Buxton was hitting 9 and you've got Dozier/Sano/Rosario etc. coming up. Then hope for the double that Buxton scores on. But with Adrianza and then a pinch-hitter coming up, you have to send him one of those first pitches.

[jokin]

 

.  Grossman, Morrison are not carrying their weight. 

 

 

Logan Morrison over the last 28 days has an .813 OPS & OPS+ of 125.

That number is not that far from his OPS .868 & OPS+ of 135 in 2017.

 

And his May performance is actually well above his career total of .758 OPS & OPS+ of 108.

 

The Twins are more than getting what they paid for in LoMo in May.

Edited May 30, 2018 by jokin

[wsnydes]

 

I guess I just don't understand the concept "The Indians have been underperforming but the Twins are a bust because this is who they are." Seems like there are two assumptions there: that the Indians are a good baseball team and the Twins are not.

 

This could be who the Indians are and this could be a blip for the Twins as the bats take off in June and the pitching stays solid (or improves with Santana back and Lynn improving).

I wasn't arguing that point and I was at least partially agreeing with you.  Please reread my second paragraph.  

 

Part of the logic that I think you're missing is that the Twins are closer to the Twins that we've seen in recent memory and Cleveland is not.  If not for a 20-10 month last year, that squad was about what we're seeing of this current squad.  That 20-10 month is what put them in the playoffs.  Cleveland is coming off of back to back playoff appearances, a division title and two years removed from a WS appearance with much of the same personnel.  The Twins have been largely irrelevant for much of the past decade.

 

I'll say this though.  I think you're trying to align assumptions that aren't necessarily trying to be aligned.  It's perfectly logical to believe that the Twins are this bad and still believe that Cleveland will get better.  Their recent track records back that up.  You are correct though, this could be the real Cleveland and the Twins are the ones that will take off.  That's certainly within the realm of possibility.  Many, myself included, believe that Cleveland will find their groove and take off.  As I said before, I also think that the Twins bats will get better.  However, I wonder if it'll be too late to salvage the season.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Final thought...should the Twins put their faith in a bullpen coach whose nickname is "Everyday"?

Also, it seems like the bullpen coach should be as data-driven as the rest of the coaches.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The big difference to me is the thing that's holding Cleveland back is their bullpen. Their relievers have combined to a 6.08 ERA, worst in baseball. I think it's more likely that the Cleveland bullpen stabilizes than the Twins offense does, though it's certainly realistic to expect both of those units to improve over the course of the rest of the season.

 

To a point I agree. Bullpen performance is extremely variable so it's hard to see the Cleveland pen being this awful.

 

That said, bullpen performance is extremely variable and Cleveland has leaned on a dominant pen for the past few years. Maybe the pendulum has swung the other way. Andrew Miller is on the DL and has been bad – maybe he’s not the shutdown guy he was, especially with a big workload the past few years. Bryan Shaw signed for more elsewhere (and has sucked) and the rest of the guys don’t have a great track record. Not crazy to say that Cleveland’s pen won’t be great. And they don’t have the farm system/payroll to go find expensive solutions.

 

Dozier has hit for three years now and has been streaky for large parts of it. Sano has had his K rate go up but his BABIP is also way down over his career norms. Buxton, who knows? Polanco coming back should be a huge boost even if he isn’t August Polanco. The Twins solutions are all internal (with the possible exceptions of a minor backup catcher/4th OF upgrade).

 

I think I’d bet on the Twins offense putting it together more than the Cleveland pen becoming a strength. My bigger concern is if the rotation can continue to be this good. I’m cautiously optimistic since improvements by Lynn/Santana should counteract any regression by Romero/Odorizzi.

[jun]

 

Duffy has a history of dominating Buxton.

I believe more than half of the pitchers in the major league are dominating Buxton.

[ThejacKmp]

 

As I said before, I also think that the Twins bats will get better.  However, I wonder if it'll be too late to salvage the season.

 

Its that "salvage the season" I don't totally get. It's May.

 

Let's pretend the Twins bats take off at the same time Cleveland's pen gets better. Doesn't that basically make this a brand-new season but shorter? (I know Cleveland is up 4.5 but the teams play each other a ton and offense is more important than bullpen so you'd think improvement of both would help the Twins more).

 

And doesn't a shorter season mean more variability of result? Doesn't the worse team on paper benefit from variability? (e.g. The Cavs would love to make the Finals a winner-take-all game while the Warriors want to make it a best-of-21).

 

I think parts of the Twins season have been bad. The offense has been bad. But I look at the standings and the potential of this team and I think, "The Twins are going to be in 1st place in a month."

[Number3]

Missing in this whole discussion is a person by the name of Paul Molitor. He might as well fill out the lineup card and then buy a ticket. No effort whatsoever in the "manufacture a run" category? Rodney ONLY pitches in closing situations but never in extra inning games on the road when those 8 walk offs could at least be postponed (maybe)? Barring a miracle turn around, Molitor needs to go by all star time if the Twins are serious.

Mauer's return will be of no consequence. What's the point of Joe "the table setter" Mauer maybe getting on base a couple of times if the plate isn't touched?

Polanco's return will be much more valuable than Mauer's and expecting Joe to come through against the Indians is wishful thinking. Buxton and Sano are the keys to this team. Buxton needs to get on base some way some how and Sano needs to hit at least .280. The home runs will come.

Sorry about the negativity and hyperbole.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Also, it seems like the bullpen coach should be as data-driven as the rest of the coaches.

 

Interesting concept. If you were to pick which coach is least data-driven, who would it be? And who would be most?

 

I may be wrong but the pen coach has always seemed like more of a rah-rah, build-a-team-out-here kind of guy. He’s certainly working with guys on mechanics but a lot of it has keeping guys on track to be ready and dealing with egos/confidence etc. I can't think that Molly is leaning on Eddie for who to send in or who to warmup or who has the best chance to get Lindor out.

 

For most data-driven I have a hard time. I can see bench coach with the importance of shifting. I can see pitching coach with breaking down hitter performance. Batting too, though maybe less since hitting has a lot of rhythm and confidence to it rather than running the data.

Edited May 30, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Rodney ONLY pitches in closing situations but never in extra inning games on the road when those 8 walk offs could at least be postponed (maybe)?

I love that we've moved from "The Twins should cut Rodney" to "Rodney needs to be in high-leverage situations" in a month. That's what's so great about baseball.

[Dantes929]

Small sample size and all that but we scored over 4 runs a game with Mauer and barely over 3 a game since he went on the DL.    Really looking forward to having him back.   Mauer and Buxton were my two favorite Twins to watch bat last year even when Buxton was slumping.    There was a point where the light just turned on with him and I have faith it will happen again this year and it will be fun to watch.   Part of what kept him afloat during the slump last year was his bunting for hits.   I have only seen one attempt this year and that was the one that was almost a fly ball to first a couple days ago.    He does have one bunt base hit but it was when he was trying for a sacrifice.      Does he have any others?    A soft bunt down third will get him a hit almost every time. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When Buxton was on, I think the hard-throwing battery of Kelvin Herrera and Drew Butera may have scared off the Twins from trying to steal, but why not give it a shot and make them make a play? At this point, I'd much rather see the Twins lose because they were trying to be over aggressive in trying to create some offense.

When Buxton didn't attempt to steal off Hader in the Milwaukee game, it was understandable as that guy is a hard throwing lefty. Last night Buxton should have taken off. First pitch. Heck, first move. Buxton is fast enough, Herrera is a righty, not sure if he is good at holding runners, but the combination of a RHP, inexperienced first baseman, and Buxton's speed, he might have had a good chance to steal second even if Herrera's move is a pickoff attempt. Missed opportunity that probably wins the game if he makes it to second by simply makig the attempt.

[wsnydes]

 

Its that "salvage the season" I don't totally get. It's May.

 

Let's pretend the Twins bats take off at the same time Cleveland's pen gets better. Doesn't that basically make this a brand-new season but shorter? (I know Cleveland is up 4.5 but the teams play each other a ton and offense is more important than bullpen so you'd think improvement of both would help the Twins more).

 

And doesn't a shorter season mean more variability of result? Doesn't the worse team on paper benefit from variability? (e.g. The Cavs would love to make the Finals a winner-take-all game while the Warriors want to make it a best-of-21).

 

I think parts of the Twins season have been bad. The offense has been bad. But I look at the standings and the potential of this team and I think, "The Twins are going to be in 1st place in a month."

You're reading into that one word far too much.  As I've said before, there is still plenty of baseball to be played.  There is time, no doubt.  I'm not arguing that, nor ever have been.  However, the bats are showing no signs of coming to life yet Cleveland is already pulling away.  This team isn't going to be a wild card team, so they need to catch and surpass Cleveland in order to make the playoffs.  That's all I'm saying, and that's all that I meant by using the word "salvage."  If they win the division, they salvaged what was a poor start to the season.

 

I would argue that if Cleveland solidifies their bullpen and the Twins find their bats, it's the same season.  Neither team gains anything on the other.  Which means that the Twins are still in the hole that they've created by not taking advantage of Cleveland's struggles.  the Twins are struggling because they can't score.  Cleveland is losing because they can't prevent teams from scoring late in games.  To me, those two neutralize the other.  One team can't hold a lead, the other can't get a lead.  I'd rather be the team that can't hold a lead than the one that can't get a lead.

Edited May 30, 2018 by wsnydes

[twinsfanstreif]

8 walk off losses in the first 50 games of the season... You can't make it up. Wow.

 

11 on run losses and another 3 two run losses. That's exactly half of our losses have come in the close game variety. If we were even average in that category we are on top of the division and over .500

[USAFChief]

 

Duffy has a history of dominating Buxton.

Ignoring the somewhat questionable idea that a handful of PAs against any one pitcher is predictive for any hitter, a quick check of BRef shows Buxton with the following line against Duffy:

 

10 PAs, .222/.300/.556. Two hits including a double and triple, plus a walk.

 

I understand getting Buxton a day off here and there, but it shouldn't be against a LH pitcher. That's pretty questionable, IMO.

 

 

[wsnydes]

 

Ignoring the somewhat questionable idea that a handful of PAs against any one pitcher is predictive for any hitter, a quick check of BRef shows Buxton with the following line against Duffy:

 

10 PAs, .222/.300/.556. Two hits including a double and triple, plus a walk.

 

I understand getting Buxton a day off here and there, but it shouldn't be against a LH pitcher. That's pretty questionable, IMO.

Unless his toe swelled up or something of that nature, I agree with this completely.  I didn't hear anything to that effect though, so it does seem pretty questionable to sit him just for the sake of resting him on a day a lefty is starting.

[Vanimal46]

Ignoring the somewhat questionable idea that a handful of PAs against any one pitcher is predictive for any hitter, a quick check of BRef shows Buxton with the following line against Duffy:

 

10 PAs, .222/.300/.556. Two hits including a double and triple, plus a walk.

 

I understand getting Buxton a day off here and there, but it shouldn't be against a LH pitcher. That's pretty questionable, IMO.

I get the sense that Molitor and co. are getting fed up with Buxton's inability to hit the baseball.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You're reading into that one word far too much.  As I've said before, there is still plenty of baseball to be played.  There is time, no doubt.  I'm not arguing that, nor ever have been.  However, the bats are showing no signs of coming to life yet Cleveland is already pulling away.  This team isn't going to be a wild card team, so they need to catch and surpass Cleveland in order to make the playoffs.  That's all I'm saying, and that's all that I meant by using the word "salvage."  If they win the division, they salvaged what was a poor start to the season.

 

I would argue that if Cleveland solidifies their bullpen and the Twins find their bats, it's the same season.  Neither team gains anything on the other.  Which means that the Twins are still in the hole that they've created by not taking advantage of Cleveland's struggles.  the Twins are struggling because they can't score.  Cleveland is losing because they can't prevent teams from scoring late in games.  To me, those two neutralize the other.  One team can't hold a lead, the other can't get a lead.  I'd rather be the team that can't hold a lead than the one that can't get a lead.

 

Also important to note that not talking just about your comments, more the overall tenor and level of pessimistic panic on the boards :-)

 

Firmly disagree this team won't be in the wild card mix. They're nine to ten games out but the teams ahead for the 2nd WC are mostly flawed (Rays, Jays) with the possible exception of the Angels and Mariners. Neither of those teams is so good that a Twins team with a Woke Offense couldn't track them down. If we're down 9 at the break, I'll start thinking division-or-bust. But no way are we as out of it as everyone assumes.

 

You think a pen is as important as the hitters? I'm surprised by that - I don't have any stats to back it up but an offense over 9 innings seems much more important than a pen over 3 innings. Could be wrong.

[bighat]

 

Small sample size and all that but we scored over 4 runs a game with Mauer and barely over 3 a game since he went on the DL.    Really looking forward to having him back.   Mauer and Buxton were my two favorite Twins to watch bat last year even when Buxton was slumping.    There was a point where the light just turned on with him and I have faith it will happen again this year and it will be fun to watch.   Part of what kept him afloat during the slump last year was his bunting for hits.   I have only seen one attempt this year and that was the one that was almost a fly ball to first a couple days ago.    He does have one bunt base hit but it was when he was trying for a sacrifice.      Does he have any others?    A soft bunt down third will get him a hit almost every time. 

 

The solution of "just bunt from now on" won't work, because Buxton's bunting is only going to become a factor if he is also a threat to get regular base hits. He has to fix the hitting thing first, THEN start bunting. If he starts trying to bunt every time, when he fails it's only going to magnify the boogyman in his head that says "I CAN'T DO ANYTHING RIGHT".

 

We just have to let him go up there and take his hacks. I think he's in real danger of being sent down in a week or so if he doesn't produce. It worked last year and I believe Buxton's complete lack of confidence is going to force the Twins' hand yet again unless he does something soon. Quite unfortunate.

[wsnydes]

 

Also important to note that not talking just about your comments, more the overall tenor and level of pessimistic panic on the boards :-)

 

Firmly disagree this team won't be in the wild card mix. They're nine to ten games out but the teams ahead for the 2nd WC are mostly flawed (Rays, Jays) with the possible exception of the Angels and Mariners. Neither of those teams is so good that a Twins team with a Woke Offense couldn't track them down. If we're down 9 at the break, I'll start thinking division-or-bust. But no way are we as out of it as everyone assumes.

 

You think a pen is as important as the hitters? I'm surprised by that - I don't have any stats to back it up but an offense over 9 innings seems much more important than a pen over 3 innings. Could be wrong.

I don't believe that the pen is more important than the hitters, it's that it's impossible to win a game in which you never lead.  However, if you have a lead in a game, you're likely to at least luck into a win now and then.  Cleveland's issue is maintaining a lead, not getting one in the first place.  I believe that it's easier to maintain a lead than it is to come from behind to get one and then maintain it.  I also think that fixing a bullpen on a team who has a good rotation is easier than fixing an entire offense.

 

I realize that you're not addressing just my comments, however you did use my words in that particular case.  I felt obliged to elaborate on what I, personally, meant.  There is a lot of pessimism here and it's hard to blame anyone for it.  Generally speaking, this team isn't much different than I expected going into the season.  I'm surprised that the bats are as cold as they are, but I'm also pleasantly surprised by the pitching.  I saw this team being about what they were last year, just a more consistent version of it.  That was an average team at best that would beat up on the bottom third of the AL and still struggle mightily to beat true playoff contenders.  That's pretty much what I'm seeing.

 

I don't disagree that they can't catch the likes of the Rays or Jays or even Oakland.  However, they aren't catching the Yankees, M's or Angels.  Two of those teams are currently sitting in the drivers seat.  This team, even if they're hitting, are not in the same conversation as those teams in my opinion.  This assumes no major injuries of course.  M's and Angels are an easier get, but I don't think that catching the Yankees is even debatable.  I realize that they only have to catch one of them, but I just don't think this team is nearly as good as those teams.  

 

 

[Puckett34]

 

Buxton and Sano to AAA.

What do they have to learn in the minors?   It's sink or swim time for both of them.   Both have been dominant in the minors with Buxton slashing .302/.379/.504 and Sano .278/.373/.564.   They don't need to dominate a lower level again.   The only way they get better is by batting against the best possible competition.   Neither of them will get that in AAA.    

[Mike Sixel]

Two things I don't understand....

 

Buxton not trying to steal when he's a pinch runner.

 

Buxton swinging away with the bases loaded and the pitcher being unable to throw a strike.

[lukeduke1980]

 

What do they have to learn in the minors?   It's sink or swim time for both of them.   Both have been dominant in the minors with Buxton slashing .302/.379/.504 and Sano .278/.373/.564.   They don't need to dominate a lower level again.   The only way they get better is by batting against the best possible competition.   Neither of them will get that in AAA.    

I agree, but both are sinking.  I do think Buxton needs to be re-calibrated in the minors even if he's dominated there before.

[USAFChief]

 

Two things I don't understand....

Buxton not trying to steal when he's a pinch runner.

Buxton swinging away with the bases loaded and the pitcher being unable to throw a strike.

I think it's very possible the pitcher was intentionally trying to get the previous two hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone, knowing he had Buxton due up.

 

It's pretty rare for major league pitchers to truly be "unable to throw a strike."

 

And he swung at a fat, nothing FB, right in the "hit me" zone.

 

IMO the problem wasn't that he swung. The problem is, he got a pitch he was waiting for, and was unable to do anything with it.