Article: Twins Trade Phil Hughes, Draft Pick to San Diego

[Otto von Ballpark]

With the 7 some million they can add a bat like Morrison for a year or a set up man for a year.

How useful is that, though? You are talking 1 WAR or less type players. Ideally you should be paying less than $7 mil guaranteed for such players/performances anyway (the Rays got Morrison for an average of $3.35 mil per season, for example), much less giving away the #74 overall pick and its associated bonus pool allotment too.

 

If we're planning on that kind of investment as a follow-up to this deal, that's not terribly encouraging. And if we're planning on making a run at, say, Machado -- well, $7 mil is just a drop in the bucket.

Edited May 28, 2018 by spycake

[howeda7]

I don't have a huge problem. Think of it this way, we spent $6 million this year on Logan Morrison. Trading a second round pick for Morrison and a catching prospect isn't a terrible deal.

[David HK]

Well, they ate a lot of money, but at least not the max.  

 

I'm glad for the club, and for Phil, for having a place to get a fresh start.

 

Good luck to him, and the Pad's.

[KirbyDome89]

What relief does this provide other than to the Pohlads' wallet? 

 

They sold a high draft pick because they couldn't just eat the cost of a terrible contract. 

 

I blame myself for believing the Twins would actually change.

[beckmt]

Odds of the 74th draft pick working out are extremely low.  Catching in this draft is supposed to be light, so this could just be depth.  Am more concerned that the Twins need a better relief staff and more hitting.  Our window is now so this trade is "meh" to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Some of these posts read.... meh, why bother drafting and then signing players, they never work out anyway.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I kind of wonder if the Pohlads forced this when SD came calling. A few days ago, we ust assumed the Twins were eating his salary. Then some team comes calling offering to take Hughes off our hand for a pick. I somehow doubt the front office could have said no.

 

This catcher looks like org filler. Hopefully our scouts/analytics people see something in this catcher. I'm not sure I like the move, but then again, I'm not the one who just saved 7 million or so.

[jorgenswest]

My meh...

 

Which has more value?

 

A pick 74 for which only a small minority of players have had a significant career or Villalobos and a one year free agent signing at around 7.5 million.

 

It seems like there is space to argue on both sides. Isn’t that different from saying why bother drafting? It just might not be worth Villalobos and 7.5 million.

 

I would prefer the pick only because there is about a 5% chance that a truly valuable player will emerge.

 

I don’t know the likelihood that a free agent at 7.5 million (or upgrading to a better free agent with 7.5 million) will result in a truly valuable addition for a season. Maybe it is around 50%.

 

Bet on improving next season or take a flier on a player that might help 5 years down the road. Meh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is a very interesting trade, I will give them that.

 

The Padres were probably willing to commit the minimum salary for Hughes after we released him. That's ~$900k for the remainder of the deal (although obviously less if they release him earlier, which is pretty likely).

 

The draft pick... from this article, maybe we can estimate it is worth $4-5 mil from a future WAR perspective:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

But it is one of only a handful of picks which can be traded, which would probably put a premium on it (if the Padres need an extra $800k for their bonus pool, there aren't many ways to acquire that). And of course its bonus slot could have been applied to another Twins selection too. Maybe the premium is an extra $1-2 mil?

 

On the other side of the ledger, I don't know what value to assign to the catcher Villalobos. He's young enough to have a bit more potential than pure org filler, but not quite what anyone would call a prospect. Maybe $500k?

 

So probably a fair trade on both sides, just by the numbers. Of course, it remains to be seen if both sides were right to move in these directions -- we'll see how their drafts play out, what the Twins do with the cash, and even what happens with Hughes and Villalobos.

[nicksaviking]

My meh...

Which has more value?

.

They have 26M in committed payroll next year. Even with the arbitration guys they'll struggle to make 60M.

 

That 7.5M will have no impact on free agency.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins had the 24th bonus pool before the trade, this moves them down to 26th. A bit behind our first round draft position of 20th.

 

The Padres pool moved up from 8th to 7th, to match their first round position (7th).

[jorgenswest]

They have 26M in committed payroll next year. Even with the arbitration guys they'll struggle to make 60M.

That 7.5M will have no impact on free agency.

They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals.

 

The dollars will make a difference.

[Rosterman]

 

They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals.

The dollars will make a difference.

The Twins need to decide on Mauer and Dozier....do they give Dozier a qualifying offer (which is doubtful unless he has a stellar second half).

 

They need to make a decision to tie up young players.

 

Yes, they have a rebuild of the rotation, but right now have Berrios, Romero, Odorizzi, Pineada and whatever. They would have monies to invest in a first-rate starter on a big up-front contract.

 

They also could throw money at a couple of free agents, or absorb contracts from other tems for position players they need.

 

There is Payroll Space to burn, so to say...unless this season tanks and they take a hit in attendance.

 

Yes, they are still paying a player millions to play for someone next season, but saving a bit in the process overall. 

 

Do they need a catcher? Castro is still under contract for a season. This year Garver gets to show what he has. Yes, you worry about 2020, but that is...2020.

 

With the way baseball operates, you can still pick up high-ranked draft picks from other teams one year or more after the fact. The Twins did good changing their international funs into a couple of picks with some showcasing. You go back and look at the number of guys that you draft each year and how many actually make the major leagues....what is it...3 or five or 10?

 

[nicksaviking]

They will also have a lot of positions to fill. Polanco and Sano return as the only viable infielders under contract. They need a catcher. They need better options at DH. They will need a bullpen and a probably a starting pitcher. They have young players that they should pursue long term deals.

The dollars will make a difference.

To get back to this year's payroll they'll have to spend about $60M in 2019 money. They'd have to actually get Machado or Harper for that to happen.

[KGB]

$1 mil in international cap space is HUGE, with the new hard cap. That's like 20% of the average total pool. Adding $1 mil basically makes you a favorite to land the top international free agents in any given year. (And it helped the Angels land Ohtani this year.)

But at the time of the trade it had very little value to the Twins. They also sent a million to Seattle, which I don't believe got them any top prospects since the Yankees sign the final couple top prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

To get back to this year's payroll they'll have to spend about $60M in 2019 money. They'd have to actually get Machado or Harper for that to happen.

I don't think people realize how much money they have coming off the books. They would have to spend close to the most any team has ever spent to touch the new money.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think people realize how much money they have coming off the books. They would have to spend close to the most any team has ever spent to touch the new money.

Honest question

 

What is the most ever spent? Does it count re-signing or extending their own players?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think people realize how much money they have coming off the books. They would have to spend close to the most any team has ever spent to touch the new money.

I think a lot of that salary space is already locked up. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, and Polanco will all be looking at some sort of extension this winter. How that all plays out, who knows. I'd argue the team would be smart to pay a bit more now for a bit less later and smooth out those arbitration curves if possible.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Glad I got caught up on this thread. I like Hughes as a person, but wasn't really interested in him as a MLB pitcher anymore, just as long as he wasn't pitching in close Twins games.

 

Levine suggested on Sunday that cash (such as it is) from the Hughes-San Diego deal could be used in free agency next winter. We'll see, and I'm not really interested in any more of the bargain-types that we saw signed last winter. 

 

Hard to believe, but Carl Pohlad, 30 years ago, made Kirby Puckett the highest paid player in MLB at one point. I'm too young to appreciate that, but know well enough the Jim Pohlad is interesting in keeping every dirty cent he can and putting it back in his pocket. But, this front office is new in town, and a little on the young side themselves, so we might hear the same "all in" language next winter we heard last winter with Darvish. Better if Levine just says they will use the Hughes money to lock up one of our current guys, or work a trade, which truthfully to me is more desirable than gambling in free agency (given that you get what you pay for). 

 

[Cast of Thousands]

 

I don't think people realize how much money they have coming off the books. They would have to spend close to the most any team has ever spent to touch the new money.

So you're assuming the Twins FO doesn't realize this either?  I know, I know, I'm sure they're all idiots....

[Otto von Ballpark]

So you're assuming the Twins FO doesn't realize this either? I know, I know, I'm sure they're all idiots....

I think the implication is that this money isn't necessarily being cleared to be spent. Not that anyone is an idiot.

[nicksaviking]

 Levine suggested on Sunday that cash (such as it is) from the Hughes-San Diego deal could be used in free agency next winter. We'll see, and I'm not really interested in any more of the bargain-types that we saw signed last winter. 

 

I wouldn't expect him to say anything else. Even if the team comes in at a $90M payroll, they can still say that the Hughes savings was earmarked for whatever free agent they end up signing.

 

I'm not one looking for them to break the bank necessarily and I'm not asking for a record payroll each year. I just ask that they do their best to put themselves in the best spot to win now or soon in the future. Giving away a top draft pick for salary relief next year when it's next to mathematically impossible for them to increase payroll beyond their natural capabilities anyway isn't an attempt to put the team in the best spot to win.

[Mike Sixel]

So you're assuming the Twins FO doesn't realize this either? I know, I know, I'm sure they're all idiots....

I'm not sure how you got this out of my post at all. But polite, very polite

[gagu]

I ran through 20 past drafts from '94 to '13. The 74th pick did produce some players who had some success. Jon Jay is 4-5 with a double so far tonight against the Twins. A 13.6 WAR over 9 seasons. Chris Ray had a good 3 year run with Baltimore. Tyler Chatwood fleeced the Cubs in free agency but he is a legitimate back-end starter. Jarrett Parker and Daniel Norris played a while. And going back to '87, Mike Benjamin was a reliable utility infielder for several years. 

My take is that it was a reasonable deal on both sides. Probably won't end up being very significant to anyone other than the players involved.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm confused. Isn't the value of that pick any player picked after 73? I'm not sure why people keep looking at the 74th pick specifically.

 

The twins did a pick. The only way this works too help the team is if they spend the money next year.

[mudcat14]

Hopefully the Twins use the savings to salary Wilson Ramos for the remainder of the year, since Tampa is clearly in the sell now mode.  If we eat his contract, the return shouldn't be too high.

Edited May 29, 2018 by mudcat14

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm confused. Isn't the value of that pick any player picked after 73? I'm not sure why people keep looking at the 74th pick specifically.

 

The twins did a pick. The only way this works too help the team is if they spend the money next year.

And there is also more value with that pick than just the amount of WAR he would or would not produce.

He could become a prospect that has trade value (like Palacios), or they could use that slot value to go over on a different pick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm confused. Isn't the value of that pick any player picked after 73? I'm not sure why people keep looking at the 74th pick specifically.

 

Good point. Looking strictly at #74 picks isn't quite right. It's not like there is a league-wide locked in ranking and we can only get the 74th ranked guy. We might get the guy ranked #40 on our board. The team picking at #100 might make the same selection at #74. (A minute of research shows Giancarlo Stanton was the #76 overall pick.)

 

That's not to say it changes the calculus too much, but it's worth noting that while the average return on the #74 pick is fairly low, it is still an exclusive lotto ticket that we are forgoing for cash.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And there is also more value with that pick than just the amount of WAR he would or would not produce.

He could become a prospect that has trade value (like Palacios), or they could use that slot value to go over on a different pick.

More good points!

 

If we planned to draft and sign the Gophers bullpen catcher at #74, we could apply the bonus to our #20 pick and make its bonus equivalent to the #14 pick. Or our #59 pick could be upgraded to the #37 slot.

 

Now the draft is next week already, so the Twins probably have some idea how it is going to shake out. But there are so many moving pieces, it is hard to take an option off the table.

 

And another example trade-wise, #74 pick Daniel Norris may not pan out as a long-term productive MLB player, but he was already used to acquire David Price at the deadline, pushing the Blue Jays to the postseason and deep into the ALCS that year. If the Jays had sold the pick in 2011, maybe they don't have the pieces to make that happen in 2015.

[snap4birds]

 

Good point. Looking strictly at #74 picks isn't quite right. It's not like there is a league-wide locked in ranking and we can only get the 74th ranked guy. We might get the guy ranked #40 on our board. The team picking at #100 might make the same selection at #74. (A minute of research shows Giancarlo Stanton was the #76 overall pick.)

That's not to say it changes the calculus too much, but it's worth noting that while the average return on the #74 pick is fairly low, it is still an exclusive lotto ticket that we are forgoing for cash.

 

I think it's legitimate to look at the #74 picks to gauge the value of the pick.  NFL teams have a whole table where they value every pick, it's based on the value of the picks in previous years.  Of course, there is no perfect system.  But if you look at past 74 picks, you get a good approximation of what is available.  If you feel this year's draft is a strong draft, maybe you'd look at the past #71 picks or whatever.

 

Anyway, no one mentioned that Akil Baddoo was a #74 pick.  If the Twins had included Baddoo instead of the pick, the pitchforks and torches would be out right now.....

 

We'll never know who the Twins would have picked at that spot, or if they would have used some of the bonus money on another pick or whatever.  The Twins system is pretty deep right now, if they were bottom of the league and traded away a pick, that would be more concerning.