Article: Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come?

[jkcarew]

 

“In the long run, we’re all dead.”

John Maynard Keynes

Two "likes" for dying (and counting).

 

We really need to start hitting, and soon.

[Number3]

Other than size, I don't know what the comparison between Carter and Sano is all about. Carter was available at a nominal price in today's bloated market so the Twins grabbed him. End of story.

Sano, in my opinion is injury prone period. His supporting structure can't support his bulk over extended periods of time and it will give out again. What is my evidence for this opinion? Simple observation.  The man looks like an accident waiting to happen especially running the bases.

His one talent is that when (if) the ball runs into his bat it travels in the opposite direction very far. He does seem to be athletic which is good news/bad news since that is where the stress comes from.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Money talks.

When will be the next opportunity for the Twins to "signal" to Sano via a salary negotiation / arbitration?

not much negotiation when an arbiter makes the decision

[yarnivek1972]

Money talks.

When will be the next opportunity for the Twins to "signal" to Sano via a salary negotiation / arbitration?

Actually everyday when they aren’t offering him the sun, moon, venus, mars and half of jupiter to be a lifelong Twin.

 

I think the Twins are waiting to see uranus shrink first.

[Mr. Brooks]

not much negotiation when an arbiter makes the decision

Most of the time, it doesn't go to arbitration.

And even if it does, the arbitration panel has to pick one of the submitted numbers.

[Sssuperdave]

 

Other than size, I don't know what the comparison between Carter and Sano is all about.

 The comparison is about a lot more than size - it is about their profile as hitters. They are both extreme three-true-outcome players. For his Career, Carter has homered, walked, or struck out in 50.3% of his plate appearances. Sano has done so in 53.6%. They have almost identical Home Run %'s (5.5% for Carter and 5.4% for Sano), and Sano walks and strikes out a little more.

 

The point is that if Sano continues with his current approach, several years from now he'll look back and will have had the same results as Chris Carter - made $2M-$3M per year for a few years and then struggling to stay relevant.

 

An extreme alternative to that future is Giancarlo Stanton, another three-true-outcome player at 45.9%.  The difference is that Stanton's Home Run% is higher than Sano's (6.4% vs 5.5%) and his K rate is lower (27.8% vs 36.1%).  I don't expect Sano to ever have output like Stanton's, but if he can get his K% down to 30% or so and up his HR% just a little bit, he's staring at a $100M+ payday.

[adorduan]

 

How is Sano different than Carter?

Sano has never hit 41 HR in a season...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Most of the time, it doesn't go to arbitration.

And even if it does, the arbitration panel has to pick one of the submitted numbers.

absolutely, but the process of making your case and validating it has created a defacto wage scale. Players with age, experience and performance indicators in these parameters make x, a year later make y, and so on. The team here at TD has been locked in for years.

[yarnivek1972]

Sano has never hit 41 HR in a season...

And he may never stay in the lineup for enough games to do so. I’m not sure he’ll ever even hit 30.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Since the door has been opened, who would we bring in for Buxton's ghost?

Mario Mendoza?  Maybe more position-relevant....Jordan Schafer?  Sam Fuld?  Peter Bourjos?

 

The idea that player A has inferior attitude, work ethic, or self-discipline because he's "fat" or because he has a certain type of body language or even because someone said he did something bad...and that player B necessarily has superior attitude, work ethic, self-discipline because he's fit, or because he "looks like he's always trying really hard", or because "he never gets in trouble";   that failure for player B is acceptable, but not acceptable for player A...I feel this when I read some articles and/or responses here.  It's a dangerous and slippery slope...simply because we don't know.  We think we know.  But we don't know.

 

Results are the only thing that matters and the only thing verifiable.  No matter how talented you are, it's hard to be a great MLB player.  It just is.

Sam Fuld! How soon we forget.

[Blackjack]

 

Money talks.

When will be the next opportunity for the Twins to "signal" to Sano via a salary negotiation / arbitration?

The problem is that just the fact that he hit 24 home runs last year and with his potential, he's still going to make a LOT of money, enough to live like a king down in the Dominican. He has no incentive to get any better. He's already banked his 6 million dollar signing bonus and with a middling contract, by todays baseball standards, he's set for life.

[Riverbrian]

 

 scare the dickens out of him.

 

 

Perfect Last Line

 

 

[TFRazor]

They didn't need to sign Chris Carter to provide Sano with an example. If they want to point at a player and simply say "that's how hard you should be working." they can just point at Escobar. This is a guy who's nowhere near as physically talented as Sano but he gets playing time because he's earned the trust of the coaches by going out there, busting his butt and producing no matter where they put him or what they ask him to do. He also understands that he has to work for everything he wants. I'm losing confidence that Sano is ever going to put it all together because I'm not sure that he is capable of that type of introspective thought at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

How is Sano different than Carter?

Besides age and defense and baserunning?

[Riverbrian]

I agree with Nick.

 

If Sano doesn't get the strikeouts under control. 

 

He will be Chris Carter. 

 

He may even have to get a new drivers license or identification that says Chris Carter on it. 

[ashbury]

Besides age and defense and baserunning?

Picky, picky, picky!