Article: DET 4, MIN 1: Niko’s Revenge

[Tom Froemming]

Former Twin Niko Goodrum hit a two-run homer and the Twins' offense couldn’t muster much of anything after the first inning. On the plus side, Kyle Gibson delivered a quality start, Eddie Rosario had a great game and the Twins still won the series against the Tigers ... but it was still a frustrating finish to the homestand.Snapshot (win expectancy chart via FanGraphs)

Current record: 21-24

Kyle Gibson: 50 Game Score, 61.9 strike %, 3 K, 1 BB

Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 IR, 1 IS, 3 K, 1 BB

Lineup: 1-for-4 w/RISP, 6 LOB, 8 K, 4 BB

Top three per WPA: Rosario .135, Dozier .070, Hildenberger .039.

Download attachment: chart.png

The Twins scored their run with only one out in the first inning. Brian Dozier hit a ball just inches shy of being a home run to dead center field. It was hit so hard that the ball actually wedged itself in between two sections of the outfield padding, giving Dozier a ground-rule double. Eddie Rosario drove him in with a one-out single.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins wouldn’t score the entire rest of the game. In fact, after the very first three batters, the Twins only tallied three more hits the rest of the game.

 

The Twins’ lineup is just really weird right now. How weird? It’s Jake Cave hitting sixth weird.

 

Gibson turned in his fifth quality start and completed six innings or more for the sixth time in 10 starts this year. Gibby has been leaning more on his four-seam fastball this year, but that wasn’t the case today. There were 47 two-seamers and 11 four-seamers among the 97 total pitches he threw.

 

Detroit’s Michael Fulmer gave up one run over 5 2/3 innings. He’s a former Rookie of the Year and All-Star, so tough to fault a thin Twins lineup for struggling. The Tigers bullpen, however, has the second-worst xFIP in all of baseball. Nevertheless, they shutout the Twins for the final 3 1/3 innings.

 

Eddie Rosario had three of the Twins’ five hits on the afternoon. Byron Buxton looked good on a nice hustle double. The starting pitching has been good, Dozier is starting to heat up and Buxton is looking more and more healthy each game. Good signs of things to come, but this lineup could use a boost.

 

Out of the bullpen for the Twins, Trevor Hildenberger pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings, Taylor Rogers was charged with an earned run over 2/3 of a frame and Ryan Pressly pitched a scoreless inning, though he allowed an inherited run from Rogers to score.

 

Next Three Games

Thu OFF

Fri at SEA, 9:10 pm CT

Sat at SEA, 9:10 ppm CT

Sun at SEA, 3:10 pm CT

 

Last Three Games

MIN 6, DET 0: Lynn Shows Will to Win

MIN 4, DET 2: It’s All Coming Up Rosie

MIN 3, MIL 1: Odorizzi Ks 10, LoMo Delivers Go-Ahead Hit

 

More From Twins Daily

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Twins Organizational Depth Chart: Middle Infielders

2018 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 21-30

 

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[h2oface]

That powerful vaunted explosive offense strikes again.

 

Hey, Buxton has a 2 game hitting streak going!

 

Pressly gives up 2 hits and a walk in the inning, loads the basses with no outs, and no runs.

Well.... no runs he gets charged with.

Rodgers says thanks.

In the name of relief. 

Eddie influence? The right man for the pen?

Rodney osmosis?

 

I don't even know why Pressly was used in this game.

Planning on a 3 run rally in the bottom of the 9th?

Pressly is being overused, and this game was a good example.

 

On that force out for the first out at home in the 9th.......

If that was the first inning, they would have tried to turn a double play,

and purposely let a run score.

I never ever ever understand sacrificing a run for an extra out.

It never makes sense to me. Never.

Runs are much harder to get back than just getting another out.

I don't care what time of the game it is.

I know it is "tradition", but I think it is just dumb.

 

[h2oface]

Goodrum is proving to be another misidentified toss off. Good for him.

It is looking like he was ready, even though this team's brain trust never really thought so. Too soon to tell though, but not to wonder about.

[ashbury]

Goodrum is proving to be another misidentified toss off. Good for him.

It is looking like he was ready, even though this team's brain trust never really thought so. Too soon to tell though, but not to wonder about.

Goodrum's glove is not good enough for middle infield duty. Until such time as the team decides Sano isn't their third-baseman, Goodrum doesn't make sense on their 40-man. He had no trade value. So, I don't know what good option there was.

[PDX Twin]

 

 

Goodrum is proving to be another misidentified toss off. Good for him.

It is looking like he was ready, even though this team's brain trust never really thought so. Too soon to tell though, but not to wonder about.

 

Every organization probably has a dozen or more replacement-level players. Over any 30-60 day period any of these can be very good (or very bad). But few will turn out to be quality MLB starters over a longer period. If two years from now Goodrum is an automatic on the lineup card for the Tigers (or anyone else), then I'll agree with you.

 

Remember Andrew Albers!

[Darius]

Stagnant offense? Chris Carter is on the way to fix that.

 

Because that's what this team is missing. Another guy that can't get on base and Ks three times per night while sprinkling in the occasional meaningless solo homer.

 

Luckily, we're still only 1.5 back of Cleveland despite them only trailing the Yanks, Sox, and Astros in run differential in the AL (and a healthy +45 over the Twins).

 

It's a matter of days now until this season is in the books if they can't figure out how to string a few good games together. Cleveland's run is inevitable.

Edited May 24, 2018 by Darius

[ashbury]

Another guy that can't get on base and Ks three times per night while sprinkling in the occasional meaningless solo homer.

When he had his productive season in 2016 he hit 23 solo homers and 18 with someone on base. That's about in line with the major leagues as a whole that season. He had at least one homer in every combination of men-on-base.

 

Whether he has those same skills to offer today is another matter, and he's been a low-average strikeout-prone hitter throughout his career, but there's no particular reason I can see to question his RISPiness.

[KirbyDome89]

 

When he had his productive season in 2016 he hit 23 solo homers and 18 with someone on base. That's about in line with the major leagues as a whole that season. He had at least one homer in every combination of men-on-base.

 

Whether he has those same skills to offer today is another matter, and he's been a low-average strikeout-prone hitter throughout his career, but there's no particular reason I can see to question his RISPiness.

Agreed that he no control over whether he hits w/ RISP. 

 

I think the rest of the post was spot on in questioning whether he's able to hit in general though. Carter was terrible last year and LA basically handed him over. I guess he's added depth, although the quality is debatable.  

[Mr. Brooks]

When he had his productive season in 2016 he hit 23 solo homers and 18 with someone on base. That's about in line with the major leagues as a whole that season. He had at least one homer in every combination of men-on-base.

 

Whether he has those same skills to offer today is another matter, and he's been a low-average strikeout-prone hitter throughout his career, but there's no particular reason I can see to question his RISPiness.

I think he was saying they'd be solo shots because the Twins aren't getting anyone on base.

[h2oface]

 

Every organization probably has a dozen or more replacement-level players. Over any 30-60 day period any of these can be very good (or very bad). But few will turn out to be quality MLB starters over a longer period. If two years from now Goodrum is an automatic on the lineup card for the Tigers (or anyone else), then I'll agree with you.

 

Remember Andrew Albers!

 

Hence, the wrap up.... "Too soon to tell though, but not to wonder about."

 

Perhaps you already do agree with me.

 

And I am now agreeing with the non-fan prognosticators........ the AL Central really sucks.

[DocBauer]

Good for Goodrum, even though the wrong team won. He will probably never be more than a quality, versatile piece on a roster. Maybe the FO didn't want him back, maybe he wanted a change of scenery and a chance with Gardy as his manager, but he was a guy I was really, really sorry to leave the organization. I really thought he had some value and could help the club this season.

 

It seems most every team has a hard luck pitcher every season. For the Twins, it would be Gibson so far this year. And it's really to bad because he's been pitching as well as he probably ever has.

 

I have to agree with h2oface in regard to Pressly. Not necessarily about today, but overall, I'm worried he's being over used. I've believed in the guy and felt he was "This close", (Maxwell Smart voice if you get the reference), to being a very good and maybe even dominant RP. And he has really matured this season, but I'm worried about him being overworked. Maybe it comes down to roster construction but my one complaint with Molitor is bullpen usage and relying on just a few guys too much. The Hughes DFA may help with this. But maybe he needs to throw a Magill out there for a second day more often and just see what you have, or don't have.

[DocBauer]

A second point.

 

Loved Mauer taking over leadoff and dropping Dozier down. Just made obvious sense. But with Mauer out, why move Dozier back up? Lime him or not, after a horrible start, Grossman has been performing much better. He sees a lot of pitches, makes contact, and gets OB. In fact, his OB the past 30 games is .343. He's over .400 for the past 15 games. Why on earth wouldn't you slot him at leadoff and keep Dozier in the #2 spot, or lower, to deepen then lineup and create opportunity?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I never ever ever understand sacrificing a run for an extra out.

It never makes sense to me. Never.

Runs are much harder to get back than just getting another out.

I don't care what time of the game it is.

I know it is "tradition", but I think it is just dumb.

First of all, this looks like a poem. Not sure if it was intentional or not but I kept looking for rhymes.

I think you're thinking about it too simplistically - you're making it out vs. run when its way more complicated. Moving guys in to make the play at the plate means you're less likely to get a ground ball. And not a little less likely, you're way less likely. In the first inning you're trying to prevent a big inning, not trying to prevent one run. So playing at normal depth is the right strategery.

So let's say you get the ground ball in the first inning playing at normal depth.

When guys play at normal depth, it's very difficult to come home with certainty. The middle infielders are just too far back on anything but a really hard smash that they one hop, not letting the runner on third move for fear of being doubled off. Rarely happens, they’re going to try to turn two rather than have an uncertain one at home. Your first or third baseman might be able to go home on a more typical ground ball and to the extent you see them go home in the first few innings it’s on a relatively hard grounder right at one of the corner infielders.

Even then, you often see them go for two. It's a lot harder to get a double play going home to first than it is to go second to first. For one thing, the throw is almost always longer to home than to second. For another, the catcher has a harder time getting into a position where he can quickly make the throw to first due to where he starts the play and the armor he's wearing. Finally, the catcher is not as used to turning two as the middle infielders and has to worry about hitting the runner going to first since he's running away and doesn't have to slide/get out of the way.

 

You could argue that it’s better to get the one at home than the two but again, you’re looking to prevent the big inning. A pitcher who loads the bases in the first inning generally isn’t pitching well and you don’t want to give the other team multiple chances with the bases loaded (and the middle of the lineup up).

 

That double play early is the right call. Give up the one run and not the big inning and go do some hitting.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Maybe the FO didn't want him back, maybe he wanted a change of scenery and a chance with Gardy as his manager, but he was a guy I was really, really sorry to leave the organization.

 

Would you rather have Goodrum than Adrianza? I think Adrianza is a better fielder but Goodrum is a fairly capable batter with some pop. I think it's an interesting call.

[ThejacKmp]

 

A second point. Loved Mauer taking over leadoff and dropping Dozier down. Just made obvious sense. But with Mauer out, why move Dozier back up? Lime him or not, after a horrible start, Grossman has been performing much better. He sees a lot of pitches, makes contact, and gets OB. In fact, his OB the past 30 games is .343. He's over .400 for the past 15 games. Why on earth wouldn't you slot him at leadoff and keep Dozier in the #2 spot, or lower, to deepen then lineup and create opportunity?

What's sad is that Dozier is going to get hot in the leadoff spot because he was bound to heat up and then Molly is going to refuse to move him when Mauer gets back because "Dozey just does better leading off." There will not be a real correlation/causation but that won't stop Molly. Sighs.

[ThejacKmp]

Sano is really coming back at the perfect time. Even though he may struggle, people will just be glad it isn't Cave DHing and hitting 6th.

[mikelink45]

Six innings - three runs - a quality start?  If I never hear or read that phrase again I will be extremely happy.  That means a 4.50 ERA is a quality ERA!  Stop it.  Gibson was not sharp and when Niko Goodrum beats you there is no great satisfaction to be gained. 

[mikelink45]

 

Would you rather have Goodrum than Adrianza? I think Adrianza is a better fielder but Goodrum is a fairly capable batter with some pop. I think it's an interesting call.

I would take Goodrum, because I like promoting from within.  Otherwise - it really does not matter. 

 

[Squirrel]

 

Six innings - three runs - a quality start?  If I never hear or read that phrase again I will be extremely happy.  That means a 4.50 ERA is a quality ERA!  Stop it.  Gibson was not sharp and when Niko Goodrum beats you there is no great satisfaction to be gained. 

6 innings pitched and 'only' 3 ER is considered a quality start by definition. While I wish Gibson were sharper yesterday, like we've seen him be this year, I'll take that start over a blowout. If our back of the rotation starters can limit themselves to 3 ER I'm good with that. We didn't lose that game because of Gibson. We lost because our offense failed to show up ... again.

[ashbury]

Six innings - three runs - a quality start?  If I never hear or read that phrase again I will be extremely happy. 

Do you object to the notion of identifying who had a good start and who did not? The threshold has to be set somewhere. And pitchers aren't robots, so nobody is compiling cheap QS, game after game, at exactly 6.0/3. The guys who lead the majors at the moment in QS have names like Kluber, Verlander, Cole, and Scherzer - no bad pitchers are sneaking in as QS league leaders, just under the wire. It's a useful quick-and-dirty metric, and indicates who is giving their team a chance to win, arguably better than the venerable W/L stat. Choose a tighter threshold, and you'll be throwing out a lot of starts where the guy's team won without scoring a ton themselves.

[mikelink45]

 

6 innings pitched and 'only' 3 ER is considered a quality start by definition. While I wish Gibson were sharper yesterday, like we've seen him be this year, I'll take that start over a blowout. If our back of the rotation starters can limit themselves to 3 ER I'm good with that. We didn't lose that game because of Gibson. We lost because our offense failed to show up ... again.

My statement is not about Gibson, it is about the idea of a quality start.  And I am still not happy with calling a start where a run for every two innings pitched is called quality.  OK works, not terrible works, but quality - no way.

[mikelink45]

 

Do you object to the notion of identifying who had a good start and who did not? The threshold has to be set somewhere. And pitchers aren't robots, so nobody is compiling cheap QS, game after game, at exactly 6.0/3. The guys who lead the majors at the moment in QS have names like Kluber, Verlander, Cole, and Scherzer - no bad pitchers are sneaking in as QS league leaders, just under the wire. It's a useful quick-and-dirty metric, and indicates who is giving their team a chance to win, arguably better than the venerable W/L stat. Choose a tighter threshold, and you'll be throwing out a lot of starts where the guy's team won without scoring a ton themselves.

Yes I do object.  It might not be popular but I consider that there are good starts, bad starts and starts that are just mediocre.  If a pitcher gives up a run every other inning I do not think of it as quality, but three runs in six innings is just that.  So not a terrible start, but not quality either, just a start, just a filler. 

[ashbury]

Yes I do object..

Well then throw out everything I said. Some people like knowing which starters achieved a difficult accomplishment.

[h2oface]

 

First of all, this looks like a poem. Not sure if it was intentional or not but I kept looking for rhymes.

I think you're thinking about it too simplistically - you're making it out vs. run when its way more complicated. Moving guys in to make the play at the plate means you're less likely to get a ground ball. And not a little less likely, you're way less likely. In the first inning you're trying to prevent a big inning, not trying to prevent one run. So playing at normal depth is the right strategery.

So let's say you get the ground ball in the first inning playing at normal depth.

When guys play at normal depth, it's very difficult to come home with certainty. The middle infielders are just too far back on anything but a really hard smash that they one hop, not letting the runner on third move for fear of being doubled off. Rarely happens, they’re going to try to turn two rather than have an uncertain one at home. Your first or third baseman might be able to go home on a more typical ground ball and to the extent you see them go home in the first few innings it’s on a relatively hard grounder right at one of the corner infielders.

Even then, you often see them go for two. It's a lot harder to get a double play going home to first than it is to go second to first. For one thing, the throw is almost always longer to home than to second. For another, the catcher has a harder time getting into a position where he can quickly make the throw to first due to where he starts the play and the armor he's wearing. Finally, the catcher is not as used to turning two as the middle infielders and has to worry about hitting the runner going to first since he's running away and doesn't have to slide/get out of the way.

 

You could argue that it’s better to get the one at home than the two but again, you’re looking to prevent the big inning. A pitcher who loads the bases in the first inning generally isn’t pitching well and you don’t want to give the other team multiple chances with the bases loaded (and the middle of the lineup up).

 

That double play early is the right call. Give up the one run and not the big inning and go do some hitting.

 

Great summary of the well known traditional thought. 

It is still what is so often bought.

If you score the game's not a bore

And the method is still the common lore.

It was once said that a 4 man rotation was the thing.

But now a 5 man is king.

A run is much harder to get back than another out

And if the hitters don't hit, it will make you pout.

 

About tradition Pulaski Academy doesn't care

One can be greater, if they dare.

 

https://youtu.be/vbgqKHxzTfU

 

Now you don't have to look for rhymes.

I made it easy for you this time.

Edited May 25, 2018 by h2oface

[yarnivek1972]

There once was a woman from Venus, whose body was shaped...

 

 

Oh wait. This is a family friendly site.

[ashbury]

There once was a woman from Venus, whose body was shaped...

 

 

Oh wait. This is a family friendly site.

There is an old moderator at Twins Daily.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Great summary of the well known traditional thought. 

It is still what is so often bought.

If you score the game's not a bore

And the method is still the common lore.

It was once said that a 4 man rotation was the thing.

But now a 5 man is king.

A run is much harder to get back than another out

And if the hitters don't hit, it will make you pout.

 

About tradition Pulaski Academy doesn't care

One can be greater, if they dare.

 

https://youtu.be/vbgqKHxzTfU

 

Now you don't have to look for rhymes.

I made it easy for you this time.

 

Top one, no one out, the bases are full

A manager's time to ponder and mull

Double play depth or bring fielders in

Which one makes us more likely to win?

 

Keep 'em back I say, let's get two!

Even though trailing stinks like poo

Our goal here is to keep it to one

We'll score more runs before we are done

 

If we were dumb and crept up close

Worried about one run at the most

Crack goes a ball in the gaping hole

Round the bases our enemies roll

 

One becomes two and then two becomes four

Into the pen, our starter can't take any more

This game is already getting way out of hand

Playing from behind, stuck in the quicksand

 

Sometimes it's easy to spout a platitude

"Fight every run to the death my dude!"

But trust me when I say this advice you must take

Early it's better to bend and not break

Edited May 25, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[h2oface]

 

Top one, no one out, the bases are full

A manager's time to ponder and mull

Double play depth or bring fielders in

Which one makes us more likely to win?

 

Keep 'em back I say, let's get two!

Even though trailing stinks like poo

Our goal here is to keep it to one

We'll score more runs before we are done

 

If we were dumb and crept up close

Worried about one run at the most

Crack goes a ball in the gaping hole

Round the bases our enemies roll

 

One becomes two and then two becomes four

Into the pen, our starter can't take any more

This game is already getting way out of hand

Playing from behind, stuck in the quicksand

 

Sometimes it's easy to spout a platitude

"Fight every run to the death my dude!"

But trust me when I say this advice you must take

Early it's better to bend and not break

 

Ha. Bravo.

Or.... get the guy at home and then the double play.

You can have your tradition.

And I will have it too, because that is what they will still do.

[USAFChief]

There is an old moderator at Twins Daily...

Who's eyesight might be starting to fail me.

Fair warning: though pain'd in these old creaky joints

I can still assess thrashings and points

Or perhaps with a permanent banning simply nail ye.