Article: End of the Road for Phil Hughes and the Twins

[nater79a]

Long relief...

It Hughes to be a job he tried to Phil.

But not anymore.

[laloesch]

It took some guts to make this decision by the Front Office although i'm sure they received approval from the Pohlads before hand.  20+ million to eat is a lot!

 

That said, I wish Phil all the best.  He really is a class act individual and he battled his tale off trying to work his way back.  It's just a shame that injuries have derailed his career at 31 years old.  Now the question is do they do the same with Lance Lynn if he continues to stink it up.

[USAFChief]

Bold prediction: Phil Hughes will pitch in a major league baseball game against the Minnesota Twins. 

[Vanimal46]

Ok, I'll start with the fact that I respect your opinion and the fact that you stick with your guns about what you believe.

 

But... that being said, "I'm happy to see Hughes gone"? Hughes got hurt. It's not like he had a bad attitude or hated being in Minnesota because of the cold and way to many Sven and Ole jokes. Yes, both the team and he needed to move on the next chapter for each of them. I won't argue that point, ever, but your post comes across as a bit unfair to the man.

 

He's a good person, and he was a good pitcher when healthy. Fate robbed him of the ability to contribute to the team and baseball as a player and I for one am very sorry to see him go. Baseball and the Twins need more players like him. We shouldn't be "Happy" to see him go.

Like mikelink said, this isn't personal. We don't know Hughes the person. He may be the greatest person in the world.

 

From a pure baseball perspective, I agree with him and thrilled he's no longer on roster. I don't like watching broken pitchers on my favorite team, and he's been broken for a long, long time.

[Mike Sixel]

Good move by the front office. I'm impressed, since so many here said no mid market team would do this, when some were clamoring for it. I wish Phil Hughes all the best. Seems like a good human being.

[laloesch]

 

 It's time for a guaranteed income for everybody in this country, not just CEOs and big-league pitchers. 

 

No its not.  You say that until your taxes quadruple.  Nobody deserves guaranteed income (i'm not talking about disability or welfare).  You SHOULD have to work to earn it.  

[zenser]

LaMarre recalled as the roster move.

[jmlease1]

I'm actually really bummed about this. I LOVED the Phil Hughes signing when we first brought him here and then he had that wonderful first season with us...it was great! I remember being surprised by the extension, and didn't think it made a lot of sense, but I don't think I bitched much about it, because I was definitely on the Phil Hughes train. The next season he had a major drop-off, but I was still a Phil guy. I thought, maybe he was a little unlucky on giving up the HRs, maybe the K's will come back...he's still not walking too many guys...I had hope. And then the wheels fell off.

 

Too many injuries. Shoulder problems. The velocity was down, the HRs kept flying out of the yard, the Ks never came back, the walks went back up...I was pretty sure going into this season that Phil Hughes was cooked, but I was ok with him making the roster. I was still rooting for him.

 

So I'm bummed. Phil Hughes was pretty easy to root for. When he was going, he was a lot of fun to watch.

 

It's the right decision, and I'm glad to see the FO is willing to make it. That's a healthy chunk of change they're eating, but the reality is Phil Hughes is no longer a MLB pitcher.

 

I vehemently disagree with the people who want to dump Lance Lynn the same way. It's not the same situation, not at all.

[ashbury]

To those saying this move was long overdue... How quickly did you expect the front office to willingly jettison $20m+?

The $$ are a sunk cost regardless of their decision. (That's not a new observation of course.)

 

However, a team will want to exhaust all opportunities with players who are out of options, and/or have enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment, before making a move that can't be reversed. That's why young inexpensive talent gets jerked around like they do. Add to that the uncertainty involved in Hughes coming back from another surgery, and a track record of success. These factors all happen to correlate with good salaries, so people tend to point to the salary and not be far wrong in drawing conclusions, but it's still the wrong logic.

 

I guess the only way the salary plays in, is a PR calculation - will it harm marketing? And can they withstand the PR hit if Hughes goes 13-8 next season and starts in game 3 of someone's postseason?

 

A conservative approach to the decision was warranted, but not because of the contract.

[ThejacKmp]

 

But there was no requirement to sign him to a long term deal. If he repeats it, we are getting an incredible performance boost as we move back into contention and an increasingly rare comp pick, with the fallback options of trading him for a haul.

Frankly I don't even think the Twins pegged the odds of him repeating that performance as very high. I think they were looking to lock in a competent long-term SP replacement for the bust Nolasco, but there are better ways to accomplish that than tear up a 2/16 deal for a 5/58 one.

 

I think you have to look at this through the lens of the Twins hoping to acquire an ace (or ace lite) pitcher that was not in their system (best bets then were May and Myers, not optimal ace candidates). At that point, taking the gamble of 2/16 to 5/58 makes sense. If he repeats it, he's going to free agency and he's out of your price range. If he doesn't then you're not on the hook for that much given what a #4 starter costs.

 

The Twins just hit the worst case scenario - major injuries (and not TJ, which would be just a year most likely) that made him completely ineffective. It was a bad outcome but I get the gamble. The Twins had no one near an ace and no other reasonable way to get one. Very little risk for a lot of gain.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ok, I'll start with the fact that I respect your opinion and the fact that you stick with your guns about what you believe.  

 

But... that being said, "I'm happy to see Hughes gone"?   Hughes got hurt.   It's not like he had a bad attitude or hated being in Minnesota because of the cold and way to many Sven and Ole jokes.   Yes, both the team and he needed to move on the next chapter for each of them.   I won't argue that point, ever, but your post comes across as a bit unfair to the man.

 

He's a good person, and he was a good pitcher when healthy.   Fate robbed him of the ability to contribute to the team and baseball as a player and I for one am very sorry to see him go.   Baseball and the Twins need more players like him.   We shouldn't be "Happy" to see him go.

 

C'mon. This is a b.s. hot take response.

 

No one on here is saying, "I hate Phil Hughes. If I saw him on fire in the street I would pee on a bush and laugh at him." No one is talking about these guys as people - maybe unless it deals with player misconduct. I think it's pretty clear that he was talking about Phil Hughes the ballplayer and asset.

 

You can be happy to see Phil Hughes go because it makes the Twins better. It doesn't mean that you're wishing ill on people.

[KirbyDome89]

 

1.) Most Twins fans now claim to hate the move but back then, the reaction was decidedly more mixed. This is the TD version of the "I was at the Bill Mazeroski Shot Heard Round the World game."

 

2.) I was one of many people who liked the move back then and I like it still today. The move was reasonable (Phil Hughes salary has not hamstrung the Twins and he has not blocked any ready prospects) and just didn't work out. Sometimes the end result is bad but it doesn't mean the process was bad. The Twins got a great season out of Hughes and because of the two years left on his deal, they had the leverage to get a team-friendly extension. That involves a gamble but it was a reasonable one, especially when you think about how hard it is to find an ace.

 

And Phil Hughes had an ace season. He was 27 with the stuff to make it seem like it could be legit. Potentially having an ace for 5 years is worth what the Twins paid. I know this because the Twins are still looking for an ace. It's hard to lure one away (Darvish showed us that non-elite markets and teams need to pay way extra to get top pitchers) and it's hard to develop one (Berrios is likely a #2, Romero might be it but it's early and Graterol looks like one but throws 100 which is scary injury-wise).

 

I thought it was a good move then and I stand by that today. It's easy to hate on the decision because it didn't work out but 2014 Phil Hughes was probably the best shot the Twins have had to find an ace or near-ace pitcher. They took that shot and I don't fault them for it - you miss 100% of shots you don't take.

I agree that a good process doesn't always deliver a good result. I've said the same thing multiple times regarding the Park signing. I don't agree that the process was solid in this case, so I think ripping the results is warranted. They could have waited another season to make sure the 14' Hughes was who they were signing and not 10'-13' Hughes, and still come in early on the extension. 

[Jham]

To me, this really highlights the fine line between functional major leaguer and out of the league. Hughes could still get guys out, just not enough. Of he were young, he'd be a AAAA guy. He worked so hard, and he's not that far off. Control is still there. Velo is close. Fine line. Is it for sure that he'll refuse assignment if no big league teams take him?

Edited May 22, 2018 by Jham

[ThejacKmp]

 

The $$ are a sunk cost regardless of their decision. (That's not a new observation of course.)

 

However, a team will want to exhaust all opportunities with players who are out of options, and/or have enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment, before making a move that can't be reversed. That's why young inexpensive talent gets jerked around like they do. Add to that the uncertainty involved in Hughes coming back from another surgery, and a track record of success. These factors all happen to correlate with good salaries, so people tend to point to the salary and not be far wrong in drawing conclusions, but it's still the wrong logic.

 

I guess the only way the salary plays in, is a PR calculation - will it harm marketing? And can they withstand the PR hit if Hughes goes 13-8 next season and starts in game 3 of someone's postseason?

 

A conservative approach to the decision was warranted, but not because of the contract.

 

I also think this had to do with starting pitching depth. May not be a coincidence (pun intended) that Hughes got let go as May started amping back up. The Twins have shown in years past that you need to have 10 starters sometimes. With Santana out (and Lynn struggling) the Twins minor league depth is an injured Mejia, Slegers, Enns, Little and Gonsalves. I'd be excited to see Gonsalves but the others are not inspiring. The Twins may have kept Hughes around as a veteran guy and then with May back and 40 man decisions happening, felt they had the depth to move on.

[Vanimal46]

I guess the only way the salary plays in, is a PR calculation - will it harm marketing? And can they withstand the PR hit if Hughes goes 13-8 next season and starts in game 3 of someone's postseason?

I think casual fans and diehards can unite and there won't be a marketing hit. Diehards have known for a long time that he's been cooked. Even casual observers can look at his stat line and see why he was let go.

 

If he goes 13-8 and starts game 3 of someone else's post season game I will eat my own shorts.

[MN_ExPat]

 

C'mon. This is a b.s. hot take response.

 

No one on here is saying, "I hate Phil Hughes. If I saw him on fire in the street I would pee on a bush and laugh at him." No one is talking about these guys as people - maybe unless it deals with player misconduct. I think it's pretty clear that he was talking about Phil Hughes the ballplayer and asset.

 

You can be happy to see Phil Hughes go because it makes the Twins better. It doesn't mean that you're wishing ill on people.

Fair enough.   But, like I said, I respect his opinion... I just don't agree with it.

[jtkoupal]

Oh Terry Ryan's desperation killed us in the long run. Couldn't have predicted the injuries, but could have predicted the decline in production. 

 

Good luck, Phil

[ashbury]

If he goes 13-8 and starts game 3 of someone else's post season game I will eat my own shorts.

I was already wordy enough, but yes part of the delay/conservatism had to be doing every possible bit of due diligence to reduce the odds of a revolting development like this. More due diligence than for a player who had no track record of success at all, for instance. You and I can eat our own shorts, but the actual decision makers might have to pay a higher price than that (hard to believe, but yes).

[MN_ExPat]

 

Like mikelink said, this isn't personal. We don't know Hughes the person. He may be the greatest person in the world.

From a pure baseball perspective, I agree with him and thrilled he's no longer on roster. I don't like watching broken pitchers on my favorite team, and he's been broken for a long, long time.

I totally concur.   I don't believe it's personal in any fashion and as I said in my post, it was clearly time for both parties to move on.   I'm glad both the team and Hughes really seemed to handle it in a professional manner.

 

But my point was simply (and maybe poorly explained, but then we shouldn't be all that surprised coming from me), that we shouldn't be "glad" he's gone.   Rather it should be to lament that another talented soul is forced from the game he loves due to injuries.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Oh Terry Ryan's desperation killed us in the long run. Couldn't have predicted the injuries, but could have predicted the decline in production. 

 

Good luck, Phil

I dunno if it's desperation. I think he had a vision for this team returning to contention with Hughes as a front-line starter and Perkins as a closer, so he locked them up for (at the time) beyond reasonably costs. It was theoretically not a bad plan. They could have declined from where they were at when they signed and still been solid values. He couldn't have foreseen the way things would unravel for both. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I agree 100 percent. Believe it or not, I was mildly against the extension at the time. Two cheap years were already guaranteed, should've just let that ride.

 

But most people were happy with it.

Careful not to strain yourself with that pat on the back, Chief. Last thing we need around here is another shoulder injury  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Fair enough.   But, like I said, I respect his opinion... I just don't agree with it.

 

You respect an opinion you assigned him, not one he ever expressed. He's clearly talking Hughes the Player and not Hughes the Human.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I dunno if it's desperation. I think he had a vision for this team returning to contention with Hughes as a front-line starter and Perkins as a closer, so he locked them up for (at the time) beyond reasonably costs. It was theoretically not a bad plan. They couldn't declined from where they were at when they signed and still been solid values. He couldn't have foreseen the way things would unravel for both. 

 

And with Perkins the issue was that they didn't trade him. That's my biggest Twins transaction regret of the past 7-8 years. They could have jumpstarted the recovery from the "rebuild" by moving Glen Perkins at the deadline in 2013 or 2014. He was a proven closer and all-star on an absurdly team friendly contract. He's also a lefty and would have slotted in nicely as a set-up man for any contender, taking over as closer down the line.

 

This is also back when teams mortgaged the farm for that mythical beast, the proven closer.

 

It makes me so sad that they didn't make that move. And that's not hindsight - at the time I wanted it too. I love Perkins but those teams stunk and he was their only real asset. He'd have gotten back impact guys.

[Squirrel]

 

Bold prediction: Phil Hughes will pitch in a major league baseball game against the Minnesota Twins. 

And get a no-hitter.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You respect an opinion you assigned him, not one he ever expressed. He's clearly talking Hughes the Player and not Hughes the Human.

 

Though it would be hilarious if he now came back on and was like, "Oh no, I do hate Phil Hughes the Human. He ______'d my _______." I would eat some crow.

[wabene]

1.) Most Twins fans now claim to hate the move but back then, the reaction was decidedly more mixed. This is the TD version of the "I was at the Bill Mazeroski Shot Heard Round the World game."

 

2.) I was one of many people who liked the move back then and I like it still today. The move was reasonable (Phil Hughes salary has not hamstrung the Twins and he has not blocked any ready prospects) and just didn't work out. Sometimes the end result is bad but it doesn't mean the process was bad. The Twins got a great season out of Hughes and because of the two years left on his deal, they had the leverage to get a team-friendly extension. That involves a gamble but it was a reasonable one, especially when you think about how hard it is to find an ace.

 

And Phil Hughes had an ace season. He was 27 with the stuff to make it seem like it could be legit. Potentially having an ace for 5 years is worth what the Twins paid. I know this because the Twins are still looking for an ace. It's hard to lure one away (Darvish showed us that non-elite markets and teams need to pay way extra to get top pitchers) and it's hard to develop one (Berrios is likely a #2, Romero might be it but it's early and Graterol looks like one but throws 100 which is scary injury-wise).

 

I thought it was a good move then and I stand by that today. It's easy to hate on the decision because it didn't work out but 2014 Phil Hughes was probably the best shot the Twins have had to find an ace or near-ace pitcher. They took that shot and I don't fault them for it - you miss 100% of shots you don't take.

I still don't like the move. Wouldn't happen with the current FO. They already had him for a couple super cheap years, yes if he was good it would cost more to sign him. That is why it was a cheap move for fear of a high salary but your cheapness allowing you to risk hamstringing you team down the road. These were the kind of moves that got under my skin.

[USAFChief]

 

Though it would be hilarious if he now came back on and was like, "Oh no, I do hate Phil Hughes the Human. He ______'d my _______." I would eat some crow.

dashed my world series dreams?

kicked my dog?

dissed my facebook post?

TP'd my house?

[LaBombo]

 

Bold prediction: Phil Hughes will pitch in a major league baseball game against the Minnesota Twins. 

 

Definitely a candidate for the Bill James Theorem of Pitcher Recycling: Roughly one out of every ten pitchers in the majors was left for dead at some point or another in their career.

[Circus Boy]

I'll echo what most posters have said in various ways: I hope Mr. Hughes latches on somewhere and wins Comeback Player of the Year.

[Rosterman]

Someone mentioned trading, when a guy is coming off a career year. In hindsight, more often than not, that should be a positive move (think if the Twins had moved Delmon Young after his one super season with the Twins). 

 

Utimately, it shows the chancs you take with big contracts or extensions. Sometimes they make a player more valuable and you see it in the Denard Span trade. But you also see who the Twins got for Span, lots of promise but basically no success. 

 

Will that be the future of major league baseball, overpaying (rewarding) for a solid season or two and then eating a contract, or constantly flipping players when possible and signing low-to-mid-range guys with the hopes of being somewhat (appearance) competitive on the field.

 

The other elephant in the room is pitching tonight for the Twins. All they have invested in a one-year free agent contract, so will be interesting to see the length of the leash when time comes to add May (who will probably start in releif) and Santana to the rotation.

 

In Lynn's case, it is only money already spent for the season. It would be a hit, but no more than having to pay a guy to be, say, on a disbabled lsit all season.

 

Do we need hughe's 40-man spot? Not really, as some point Castro changes out for one of the current returnees.

 

When the Twins shuffle Sano back in, someone else will also be leaving the roster (and possibly organization).

 

Hope that someone dos take a flyer on Mr. Hughes and lets him work yo see if he can comeback. It won't cost them anymore than the major league minimum for this sesson and next...so expect there to be some lucky team out there with a spare roster slot.