Article: End of the Road for Phil Hughes and the Twins

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 Once the market fell out, I imagine that they would have taken him back but likely paid less than the Twins (because they'd be giving up the opportunity to get a draft pick). Also, no way Lynn goes back to the team that wouldn't extend him. I don't remember that ever happening, there's pride involved here too.

 

I'll swallow my pride for a lot less than $5,000,000...but then I'm not Lance Lynn.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To those saying this move was long overdue... How quickly did you expect the front office to willingly jettison $20m+?

 

The guy didn't pitch his first game until April 22nd. He pitched all of two games out of the rotation before the front office put him in the bullpen.

 

In the three weeks since that move, Hughes pitched in only five games.

 

It was certainly time to move on but the front office gave Hughes a brief shot at the rotation, saw he no longer had the stuff to start, then gave him a brief look at relieving, ultimately coming to the same conclusion.

 

Could they have moved a week earlier? Sure. But one week isn't exactly "long overdue".

[Tom Froemming]

Part of me wants to see Phil make a comeback, but if I was in his shoes I'd probably just hang 'em up instead of risking any further damage. Nerve issues/reoccurring numbness has to be a scary thing to be experiencing, especially at his age.

 

He's been poked and prodded, sliced open, had bones removed, rehabbed from multiple surgeries and has absolutely nothing to hang his head about if he called it a career at this point. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'll swallow my pride for a lot less than $5,000,000...but then I'm not Lance Lynn.

 

I think it's a players union thing. In other leagues, guys negotiate with their teams after stuff like this all the time - the franchise tag in football, restricted free agency in basketball etc. But in baseball, once that QO gets put out there, guys seem to write off that team.

 

This spring would've been an interesting time for it but I don't remember anyone signing back.

[dbminn]

Best wishes to Hughes. Yeah, he has a lot of money. But to have a career cut short by injuries is always a bad thing. 

 

I don't blame the Twins for extending his contract. He was a 28-year old SP coming off a 6 WAR season. They signed him for less than $12M/yr through age 33. The FO took a reasonable risk for a struggling mid-market team and it didn't work out. Too bad.

[h2oface]

I think 3 accepted the QO in 2016, and the first one was in 2015. With big names hitting the market in 2018/19 off season, and what happened this past off season, I bet names not so big will be have a harder time refusing a sure thing. But then, it might also be less likely that the 2nd tier even get extended the offer, for the risk that they will take them. It will be interesting, for sure.

 

And Marco Estrada of the Blue Jays got extended a QO in 2016, but instead of taking or refusing it, resigned with a new deal.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2589177-mlb-free-agents-2016-list-of-players-who-accepted-qualifying-offers

Edited May 22, 2018 by h2oface

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think 3 accepted the QO in 2016, and the first one was in 2015. With big names hitting the market in 2018/19 off season, and what happened this past off season, I bet names not so big will be have a harder time refusing a sure thing. But then, it might also be less likely that the 2nd tier even get extended the offer, for the risk that they will take them. It will be interesting, for sure.

 

But can you think of something where a guy turned down the QO, hit the market, and then resigned with the original team? That never happens. When the QO is rejected, the guy is done with that team. I'm sure it's happened but I can't think of a single case.

 

I'd say that the draft pick attached is the reason but that doesn't make sense either. The team losing it values that pick at roughly the same amount as the team getting it so they'd both take it into consideration relatively similarly when mulling their offer.

 

Maybe it's a union thing? Maybe players take it personally? Maybe prepping yourself to leave makes it weird to stay?

[Dantes929]

 

1.) Most Twins fans now claim to hate the move but back then, the reaction was decidedly more mixed. This is the TD version of the "I was at the Bill Mazeroski Shot Heard Round the World game."

 

2.) I was one of many people who liked the move back then and I like it still today. The move was reasonable (Phil Hughes salary has not hamstrung the Twins and he has not blocked any ready prospects) and just didn't work out. Sometimes the end result is bad but it doesn't mean the process was bad. The Twins got a great season out of Hughes and because of the two years left on his deal, they had the leverage to get a team-friendly extension. That involves a gamble but it was a reasonable one, especially when you think about how hard it is to find an ace.

 

And Phil Hughes had an ace season. He was 27 with the stuff to make it seem like it could be legit. Potentially having an ace for 5 years is worth what the Twins paid. I know this because the Twins are still looking for an ace. It's hard to lure one away (Darvish showed us that non-elite markets and teams need to pay way extra to get top pitchers) and it's hard to develop one (Berrios is likely a #2, Romero might be it but it's early and Graterol looks like one but throws 100 which is scary injury-wise).

 

I thought it was a good move then and I stand by that today. It's easy to hate on the decision because it didn't work out but 2014 Phil Hughes was probably the best shot the Twins have had to find an ace or near-ace pitcher. They took that shot and I don't fault them for it - you miss 100% of shots you don't take.

I think it was before I came to TD regularly but I remember reading the Trib posts and a lot of other fan sites back in 09 demanding Mauer be signed to a long term extension at whatever price it takes.    I am talking well over 95% in favor of extension.   Flash forward a couple years and it was over 90% complaining about the deal and how they were against it all along.   

As far as Hughes I remember thinking it was too soon at too high a price for too little history with too long remaining on his original contract to make sense but I don't remember complaining at the time or since and I don't remember a whole lot of fans saying they hated the deal.   It was a gamble.   Didn't turn out.  Such is life.    The part I mostly don't like is the obligation to play guys that you have given extensions to and the whole system where you can't send veterans down to the minors when performance dictates..     Your paying him a ton of money.  It is obvious he is not the same guy he was when the contract was signed and yet you can't send him to the minors to prove himself back in form.

[USAFChief]

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16336-article-twins-extend-phil-hughes/?hl=%2Btwins+%2Bextend+%2Bhughes

 

Seth's article from 2014, plus comments.

 

Cliff notes version: very few here at TD expressed doubts about the extension. 

[Don Walcott]

 

But can you think of something where a guy turned down the QO, hit the market, and then resigned with the original team? That never happens. When the QO is rejected, the guy is done with that team. I'm sure it's happened but I can't think of a single case.

 

I'd say that the draft pick attached is the reason but that doesn't make sense either. The team losing it values that pick at roughly the same amount as the team getting it so they'd both take it into consideration relatively similarly when mulling their offer.

 

Maybe it's a union thing? Maybe players take it personally? Maybe prepping yourself to leave makes it weird to stay?

Dexter Fowler with the Cubs? I think he took less than the QO at the end of the off-season, rather than 3 years with the Orioles.

[gunnarthor]

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16336-article-twins-extend-phil-hughes/?hl=%2Btwins+%2Bextend+%2Bhughes

 

Seth's article from 2014, plus comments.

 

Cliff notes version: very few here at TD expressed doubts about the extension. 

Yep, it was a good deal. Twins were paying him #3 money (and less AAV than Nolasco). His shoulder broke. Good luck to him in the future.

[gocgo]

It really was a joy to watch him pitch in his one untouchable season.  Good luck you you Phil!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't blame the Twins for extending his contract. He was a 28-year old SP coming off a 6 WAR season. They signed him for less than $12M/yr through age 33. The FO took a reasonable risk for a struggling mid-market team and it didn't work out. Too bad.

It was 5.9 fWAR using FIP, but using actual runs allowed, it was only 4.5 bWAR. Still a very good season, but maybe not as close to elite as the Fangraphs figure suggests.

 

Also, the extension was actually for $14 mil per year. I think it would have been a fine deal if he had been a free agent, but he still had 2/16 left on his original deal. We set aside a lot of potential surplus value for those 2 years chasing a lesser amount of more speculative value in years 3-5.

[mikelink45]

I'm happy to see Hughes gone. Decisions like this are not personal and we shouldn't treat it like they are. Baseball teams need to put their best 25 players on the active roster and play to win. I don't care about option clocks and all the other nonsense that prohibits us from calling up a prospect I was ready to pitch and better than what we have. Lynn is a failed experiment so far. Hopefully he'll get better but even if he does will have lost two months of potentially good pitching. We have a slot in the bullpen know that he was is gone so put Lynn in there until he gets himself straightened out. But for the last month-and-a-half we could have used Gonsalves and Gordon and maybe we would have won a few more games have been up to 500 or over.

[Nick Nelson]

 

But can you think of something where a guy turned down the QO, hit the market, and then resigned with the original team? That never happens. When the QO is rejected, the guy is done with that team. I'm sure it's happened but I can't think of a single case.

Carl Pavano signed with the Twins after rejecting a QO following the 2011 season. But that was a long time ago, and I don't even know if it was called a QO back then. You're right that it's pretty rare.

[MN_ExPat]

 

The clock is not dependent on age so that really has little to do with it.

 

I think they'd have no issue if Santana/May weren't in the mix. Gonsalves would have a shot to grab the open spot. But that spot isn't open, it's a temporary one.

 

It'd be shortsighted to bring Gonsalves up for 2-3 starts when you know that barring injury, he's going to head back down. If you were starting Sam Deduno instead, it's be one thing. But Lance Lynn is a vet with a track record of success and it's not unreasonable to give him a bit more rope.

 

Finally, Gonsalves has only 9 starts in AAA. Not crazy to give him some more time, especially because he's not a stuff pitcher. I could be totally making this up but it seems like a guy with great stuff would have an easier time adjusting to a level change than a guy who is more about pitching like Gonsalves. again, total conjecture,

Not disagreeing with you in any fashion... but, what about Romero?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think it was before I came to TD regularly but I remember reading the Trib posts and a lot of other fan sites back in 09 demanding Mauer be signed to a long term extension at whatever price it takes.    I am talking well over 95% in favor of extension.   Flash forward a couple years and it was over 90% complaining about the deal and how they were against it all along.   

As far as Hughes I remember thinking it was too soon at too high a price for too little history with too long remaining on his original contract to make sense but I don't remember complaining at the time or since and I don't remember a whole lot of fans saying they hated the deal.   It was a gamble.   Didn't turn out.  Such is life.    The part I mostly don't like is the obligation to play guys that you have given extensions to and the whole system where you can't send veterans down to the minors when performance dictates..     Your paying him a ton of money.  It is obvious he is not the same guy he was when the contract was signed and yet you can't send him to the minors to prove himself back in form.

 

I remember most people being excited.

 

I remember there being some muted "well, they gave up on one of the best deals in baseball but I get wanting to take a chance on it being sustainable since if he did it again next year, he'd have no incentive not to be a 29 year old free agent who could get $120 Million+".

 

Very few "This is a terrible idea." Likely because it wasn't. You could think that it was risky but it made sense. A lot of people were also excited to see the Twins put their money on the table after two decades of being incredibly risk-averse.

[Thebigalguy]

I appreciate the tribute to Hughes. I've never understood why Ryan, who had him under contract, decided on the extension. After all, he already had a history of injuries before his stellar season. I tip my hat to Hughes; that was one of the most astonishing seasons I've seen. He was a strike-throwing machine who knew exactly what he was doing almost all year. As for the 20+ million he's owed, I don't begrudge it to him. How many corporate executives who fail have a "golden parachute" in place? 

 

The bottom line is that it was time for him to go. The only other option would have been to send him down and let him keep working. I have to tip my hat to the Twins for recognizing that if they had done that the man wasn't going to make it back to the Bigs; they cut the cord and left his dignity intact. Good on him and good on them. My only wish is that every working man and woman had such a contract in case something goes wrong. It's time for a guaranteed income for everybody in this country, not just CEOs and big-league pitchers. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

It was 5.9 fWAR using FIP, but using actual runs allowed, it was only 4.5 bWAR. Still a very good season, but maybe not as close to elite as the Fangraphs figure suggests.

Also, the extension was actually for $14 mil per year. I think it would have been a fine deal if he had been a free agent, but he still had 2/16 left on his original deal. We set aside a lot of potential surplus value for those 2 years chasing a lesser amount of more speculative value in years 3-5.

 

Argument against being that if he repeats it, there's no chance he's signing a long-term deal because he'd be one year form being 29 and an ace pitcher. That's $100 million easy, especially with his pedigree.

 

It was a crazy original deal. As you said, Twins gave up some of that value in order to stretch it further. Too bad he got injured, it would have been interesting to see if he could have repeated it. I remember the underlying numbers backing up the performance - if you don't walk people and don't give up home runs, you generally do okay, even with an average-at-best K rate.

[Shaitan]

 

Not disagreeing with you in any fashion... but, what about Romero?

 

Romero was already on the clock (40 Man Roster).

[Vanimal46]

Romero was already on the clock (40 Man Roster).

Gonsalves is too...

[Otto von Ballpark]

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16336-article-twins-extend-phil-hughes/?hl=%2Btwins+%2Bextend+%2Bhughes

 

Seth's article from 2014, plus comments.

 

Cliff notes version: very few here at TD expressed doubts about the extension.

Far be it from me to impugn the wisdom of a crowd of which I was a part, but I think most of us were blinded a bit by hope in that evaluation. I think Bonnes had the more realistic take. We weren't on the verge of losing him, and if he really had turned a corner, he was going to be incredibly valuable to us in trade or performance the next 2 years. Plus we had plenty of risk mitigation that he could regress or get hurt and still provide value over those 2 years (which, optimism aside, had a fairly high likelihood). The extension basically cut off a lot of that potential surplus value, and much of that risk mitigation, in favor of a higher threshold of more speculative surplus value farther down the line.

 

That said, it wasn't a terrible deal, like Ian Desmond with Colorado or something. It was just less than optimal. It may have been helped by our GM change, assuming Falvine was more likely to cut bait in a timely manner than TR.

[FunnyPenguin]

 

But can you think of something where a guy turned down the QO, hit the market, and then resigned with the original team? That never happens. When the QO is rejected, the guy is done with that team. I'm sure it's happened but I can't think of a single case.

Mike Moustakas? 

[wsnydes]

 

To those saying this move was long overdue... How quickly did you expect the front office to willingly jettison $20m+?

 

The guy didn't pitch his first game until April 22nd. He pitched all of two games out of the rotation before the front office put him in the bullpen.

 

In the three weeks since that move, Hughes pitched in only five games.

 

It was certainly time to move on but the front office gave Hughes a brief shot at the rotation, saw he no longer had the stuff to start, then gave him a brief look at relieving, ultimately coming to the same conclusion.

 

Could they have moved a week earlier? Sure. But one week isn't exactly "long overdue".

You bring up some fair points.  And you're right, long overdue is probably too strong.  For me, I guess that I'd point to the lack of use as being the reason to jettison $20M.  If you're going to pay him $20M one way or another, I'll take that extra roster spot and use it for someone that can play and that the manager will use.  They activated him to the active roster knowing what he brought to the table.  He struggled in ST and I don't recall his extended ST outings being all that impressive (from box scores admittedly), so it should not have been a surprise that he struggled at the MLB level.

 

I can appreciate that the team allowed him to try to get back.  I actually don't even fault them for it without even considering the money.  For Hughes, I admire the fortitude, will and desire that it takes to keep trying like that.  I feel for the guy, I really do.  

[USAFChief]

 

Far be it from me to impugn the wisdom of a crowd of which I was a part, but I think most of us were blinded a bit by hope in that evaluation. I think Bonnes had the more realistic take. We weren't on the verge of losing him, and if he really had turned a corner, he was going to be incredibly valuable to us in trade or performance the next 2 years. Plus we had plenty of risk mitigation that he could regress or get hurt and still provide value over those 2 years (which, optimism aside, had a fairly high likelihood). The extension basically cut off a lot of that potential surplus value, and much of that risk mitigation, in favor of a higher threshold of more speculative surplus value farther down the line.

That said, it wasn't a terrible deal, like Ian Desmond with Colorado or something. It was just less than optimal. It may have been helped by our GM change, assuming Falvine was more likely to cut bait in a timely manner than TR.

I agree 100 percent. Believe it or not, I was mildly against the extension at the time. Two cheap years were already guaranteed, should've just let that ride.

 

But most people were happy with it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In addition to Moustakas, Stephen Drew did it with Boston too, albeit after a bit of a hold out.

[MN_ExPat]

 

The bad news for Phil Hughes is that he has been released. The good news is that such a nice article can be written by Nick about a nice man who gave it his best, had a tough series of injuries, but kept trying. He never gave up. There's a lot to be said for that. Hughes made enough money to live like a king the rest of his life. That, to me sounds like a lot of "good news" for Phil Hughes. I want to say to Phil Hughes: "Good luck to you, Phil ,and I hope your "after baseball life" is a long and happy one. Thank you for your dedication and effort. Thank you for your tweet." 

I concur.   I like to point to Hughes and other players like him and use that as an example of what I try to teach my son.   Be fierce, be a warrior and a bulldog and never back down, but most of all be a good man.   Be humble and give thanks and praise to the Lord and always be willing to put the extra work in.

 

I think we've seen that with Hughes.   So along with the rest of us, I say Godspeed Phil.   I thank you for your tenure and wish you a blessed future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Argument against being that if he repeats it, there's no chance he's signing a long-term deal

But there was no requirement to sign him to a long term deal. If he repeats it, we are getting an incredible performance boost as we move back into contention and an increasingly rare comp pick, with the fallback options of trading him for a haul.

 

Frankly I don't even think the Twins pegged the odds of him repeating that performance as very high. I think they were looking to lock in a competent long-term SP replacement for the bust Nolasco, but there are better ways to accomplish that than tear up a 2/16 deal for a 5/58 one.

[MN_ExPat]

 

I'm happy to see Hughes gone. Decisions like this are not personal and we shouldn't treat it like they are. Baseball teams need to put their best 25 players on the active roster and play to win. I don't care about option clocks and all the other nonsense that prohibits us from calling up a prospect I was ready to pitch and better than what we have. Lynn is a failed experiment so far. Hopefully he'll get better but even if he does will have lost two months of potentially good pitching. We have a slot in the bullpen know that he was is gone so put Lynn in there until he gets himself straightened out. But for the last month-and-a-half we could have used Gonsalves and Gordon and maybe we would have won a few more games have been up to 500 or over.

Ok, I'll start with the fact that I respect your opinion and the fact that you stick with your guns about what you believe.  

 

But... that being said, "I'm happy to see Hughes gone"?   Hughes got hurt.   It's not like he had a bad attitude or hated being in Minnesota because of the cold and way to many Sven and Ole jokes.   Yes, both the team and he needed to move on the next chapter for each of them.   I won't argue that point, ever, but your post comes across as a bit unfair to the man.

 

He's a good person, and he was a good pitcher when healthy.   Fate robbed him of the ability to contribute to the team and baseball as a player and I for one am very sorry to see him go.   Baseball and the Twins need more players like him.   We shouldn't be "Happy" to see him go.

[dbminn]

 

It was 5.9 fWAR using FIP, but using actual runs allowed, it was only 4.5 bWAR. Still a very good season, but maybe not as close to elite as the Fangraphs figure suggests.

Also, the extension was actually for $14 mil per year. I think it would have been a fine deal if he had been a free agent, but he still had 2/16 left on his original deal. We set aside a lot of potential surplus value for those 2 years chasing a lesser amount of more speculative value in years 3-5.

 

I agree they didn't have to sign him. Extension made the deal 5/$58 M, so it's how you want to figure it. I have no problem saying $14M per year. The contract was reasonable. Hard to get even a 2 WAR SP for $14M at that time.  Santana's contract was also pretty speculative. That's the risk GMs have to live with. 

 

RE: WAR. I'm not a fan of the curve fitting that goes into bWAR based on team record. Just an opinion. I usually take both fWAR and RA-9 WAR into account when I'm perusing FG.