Article: STL 7, MIN 5: Lynn with a Dud Again

[Tom Froemming]

Lance Lynn had been struggling, but this was his chance at sweet, sweet revenge against his former team who showed no interest in bringing him back for 2018. He responded to the occasion by … throwing another clunker.Snapshot Info

Record: 18-21

Lynn: Game Score 38, 56.1 Strike%, 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Bullpen: 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 IR, 1 IS, 5 K, 2 BB

Hitters: 3-for-8 w/RISP, 7 LOB, 6 K, 5 BB

Top 3 per WPA: Morrison .230, Rosario .173, Grossman .078

 

Win Expectancy Chart (via FanGraphs)

Download attachment: chart.png

Lynn only lasted three innings and it took him 82 pitches just to get that far. He walked another four batters. His ERA on the year ticked up to 7.47. Ick.

 

The bullpen also ran into some trouble. Taylor Rogers gave up a run while recording five outs, Ryan Pressly was charged with two earned runs in his inning of work, though one of those scored while Zach Duke was on the bump, and Phil Hughes gave up a home run to the first batter he faced. The only members of the bullpen who didn’t appear in this one were Trevor Hildenberger and Fernando Rodney. Good thing the Twins are off tomorrow.

 

Despite the shaky performance from the pitching staff, the Twins still had the tying run in scoring position in the bottom of the eighth inning. Logan Morrison was 2-for-3 with a walk and a home run, which was the only extra-base hit for the Twins today. Eddie Rosario was 3-for-4 with a walk and Joe Mauer picked up a pair of hits.

 

There was a lot of traffic on the bases in this one. The teams combined for 23 hits, 11 walks and left a total of 17 runners on base.

 

Next Three Games

Thu OFF

Fri vs. MIL, 7:10 pm CT

Sat vs. MIL, 6:10 pm CT

Sun vs. MIL, 1:10 pm CT

 

Last Three Games

MIN 4, STL 1: Berrios is Back

SEA 1, MIN 0: Twins Get LeBlanc’ed

LAA 2, MIN 1: Ohtani Excellent as Angels Walk Off Twins

 

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[Danchat]

I'm trying to find a recent Twins comp. for a starting pitcher who was been worse than Lynn thus far.

 

[possibly] Worse: Trevor May 2014 (7.88 ERA, 9 starts), Vance Worley 2013 (7.21 ERA, only 5.1 K/9 in 10 starts), 2012 Nick Blackburn (7.39 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 19 starts).

 

Better: Ricky Nolasco (all years), Yohan Pino, Pedro Hernandez, P. J. Walters, Andrew Albers, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond (at his worst), Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries

 

Yuck. The best comparison was rookie Trevor May, when he was getting strikeouts (8.7 K/9) but walking too much (4.3 BB/9) and giving too many hits. For a veteran comparison, Lynn is pitching similarly to Vance Worley, who was basically batting practice with few strikeouts.

 

Bleh. Maybe the Twins should stop going after NL starters... Nolasco, Worley, and Lynn have all been flops.

[adjacent]

 

I'm trying to find a recent Twins comp. for a starting pitcher who was been worse than Lynn thus far.

 

[possibly] Worse: Trevor May 2014 (7.88 ERA, 9 starts), Vance Worley 2013 (7.21 ERA, only 5.1 K/9 in 10 starts), 2012 Nick Blackburn (7.39 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 19 starts).

 

Better: Ricky Nolasco (all years), Yohan Pino, Pedro Hernandez, P. J. Walters, Andrew Albers, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond (at his worst), Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries

 

Yuck. The best comparison was rookie Trevor May, when he was getting strikeouts (8.7 K/9) but walking too much (4.3 BB/9) and giving too many hits. For a veteran comparison, Lynn is pitching similarly to Vance Worley, who was basically batting practice with few strikeouts.

 

Bleh. Maybe the Twins should stop going after NL starters... Nolasco, Worley, and Lynn have all been flops.

You are forgetting the unforgettable Marquis.

[Dantes929]

Lynn's strikeouts/9 says he has stuff as does his career history.   His walks/9 says he has had command issues all year.    No reason to give up on him but it is dong the team and his career no good to continue on like this.    I've never like the Twins going after NL starters but his track record was better than the others and these struggles just make no sense.   Let him go to the minors and figure it out.    It is in his best interest also.

[dgwills]

Pretty glad they only signed Lynn for 1 year. Have to give the front office a lot of credit for that. I'd say it's about time for him to do get a suspicious injury and then do rehab in the minors.

[slash129]

Lynn has basically given the team a chance to win twice, and they've won twice in his starts.  They let him down against Houston and picked him up against Anaheim to even it out.  His only quality start was against the worst team in the MLB.  I know there are ups and downs with all the players, but this is about as close to no value as it gets.  He's on pace for about (-2) to (-3) WAR (if that's even possible, I'm not sure if it's linear as it builds).

 

Aaron Slegers has gotta be saying, "Can I have a try?"

 

Not to mention the obvious Gonsalves

 

 

[nicksaviking]

If the starter gets yanked after 3 and Hughes can't be trusted to go directly in and be the long man, why is he still on the team?

 

Hughes needs to be DFA'd, Lynn needs to be the long man and Gonsalves should get his look.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the starter gets yanked after 3 and Hughes can't be trusted to go directly in and be the long man, why is he still on the team?

Hughes needs to be DFA'd, Lynn needs to be the long man and Gonsalves should get his look.

 

I was coming to this thread to ask the same question.

 

Seeing Ryan Pressley in his 408th straight game makes me feel pity for the guy and wonder why Hughes wasn't the first guy in to eat the middle innings.  If you don't trust him....dump him.

[Halsey Hall]

I may be the only one, but I've no faith in Gonsalves pitching decent in the ML.

[Vanimal46]

If the starter gets yanked after 3 and Hughes can't be trusted to go directly in and be the long man, why is he still on the team?

 

Hughes needs to be DFA'd, Lynn needs to be the long man and Gonsalves should get his look.

I endorse this just so Gonsalves can get his feet wet. Ideally once Erv returns he takes the last rotation spot, Lynn long man and Hughes cut.

 

I can't imagine Gonsalves would do much worse than Lynn.

[Vanimal46]

I've read and seen enough of Lynn now. Never wanted him in the first place since he was a primarily fastball only pitcher. Batters wait to tee up on a misplaced fastball, and know his off speed pitches won't land for a strike.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lynn's strikeouts/9 says he has stuff as does his career history.   His walks/9 says he has had command issues all year.    No reason to give up on him but it is dong the team and his career no good to continue on like this.    I've never like the Twins going after NL starters but his track record was better than the others and these struggles just make no sense.   Let him go to the minors and figure it out.    It is in his best interest also.

 

why not give up on him? Slegers or Gonsalves literally can't be worse than unwinnable as starters. Why not cut him and move on? He's shown no improvement all year. If not now, how many more starts like this until you would move on?

[Mike Sixel]

I can't believe Hughes couldn't get in earlier, nor that he only pitched one inning. What is his role, other than "we are paying him a lot, so we ahve to keep him", exactly?

 

Adding a minor leaguer in his place increases payroll by 500K or so a year.....

[Mr. Brooks]

I can't believe Hughes couldn't get in earlier, nor that he only pitched one inning. What is his role, other than "we are paying him a lot, so we ahve to keep him", exactly?

 

Adding a minor leaguer in his place increases payroll by 500K or so a year.....

Personally, I feel sorry for the FO and Molitor on Hughes.

I personally believe (despite all of Ash's well thought out rebuttals) that the FO has zero desire for him to be on the team, but the Pohlad's won't let them release him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Personally, I feel sorry for the FO and Molitor on Hughes.
I personally believe (despite all of Ash's well thought out rebuttals) that the FO has zero desire for him to be on the team, but the Pohlad's won't let them release him.

 

certainly possible. I hope they aren't doing that......I feel the worst for Molitor and Hughes' teammates, followed by Hughes, followed by the FO, and not at all for the owners....

[Aerodeliria]

As I mentioned previously, the only game I had a chance to watch this year with 'Your Minnesota Twins' was Lynn's start against the Angels. I say the following with a big grain of salt and I'm certainly no pitching coach, but his delivery looked funky. His pitches out of the strike zone don't even look like they are going to be strikes from the moment the ball leaves his hand--especially to right-handed hitters. As a consequence, nobody waved at any outside pitch the whole night. It was really frustrating watching him pitch (to be honest)...maybe they're sticking with Lynn until Santana is back (???), but Slegers would be an upgrade in the meantime, IMHO. Personally, I think Lynn may have something left in the tank, but a work-in-progress at the MLB level is reflected in losses. Maybe we could send him down for a bit to work out his issues (if he would go willingly is the question, I suppose)? It seemed to do wonders for Gibson last year...

Edited May 17, 2018 by Aerodeliria

[DocBauer]

If the starter gets yanked after 3 and Hughes can't be trusted to go directly in and be the long man, why is he still on the team?

 

Hughes needs to be DFA'd, Lynn needs to be the long man and Gonsalves should get his look.

Or even Slegers. Hasn't he earned another Look?

 

In a few weeks, Santana should be back. (Maybe May). Not sure Lynn as the long man, but what else do you do with him unless he's willing to go to Rochester to regain himself?

 

There is a good blog written by Ted that discusses Lynn's velocity and SO ability and suggests he's nibbling.

[h2oface]

There is a reason that the Cards cut bait with both Lynn and Duke. The longer this goes on, the more painful it is going to be.

[nicksaviking]

e]

I may be the only one, but I've no faith in Gonsalves pitching decent in the ML.

You're not the only one, I'm skeptical. But he's going to get his shot, might as well be now before Santana gets back seeing as the only other option is Slegers.

[jtkoupal]

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear... get it together, Lance. Ervin Santana lurks right around the corner...

[Danchat]

 

There is a reason that the Cards cut bait with both Lynn and Duke. The longer this goes on, the more painful it is going to be.

The reason the Cards cut bait with Lynn had nothing to do with thinking he would be terrible... they offered him the one year qualifying offer, so clearly they would have been OK with him there for about $17M. Lynn started asking for $20M+ on a deal and the Cards weren't interested in giving him that. (Heck, nobody was. Rightfully so.) They instead signed Miles Mikolas.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Pretty glad they only signed Lynn for 1 year. Have to give the front office a lot of credit for that. 

Yes.

No. 

[bluechipper]

Logan Morrison not sliding into 2nd base on Buxton's would-be-hit was a huge mistake. Little things like that can turn games.

[DocBauer]

I may be the only one, but I've no faith in Gonsalves pitching decent in the ML.

Sorry Halsey, but you may indeed be the only one.

 

I think we get obsessed with pure velocity sometimes, and Gonsalves sits in the low 90's. Nothing wrong with that, especially being LH. He won't be 24 until July, and is sitting at AAA, where maybe he should have been to begin the year. Have there been bumps in the road here and there and a few bad games? Yep. But wouldn't you expect that of any young pitcher? He has always seemingly made adjustments at each level and produced. Not a SO machine, and a few problems with walks here and there, nevertheless, he's never had a WHIP above 1.14. In 514 IP he has allowed 366 hits. And he is just shy of a 3-1 SO/BB ratio in his milb career.

 

What's not to like there?

 

I wouldn't expect him to come up and flash like Romero. And there will be some bad days, I'm sure. (Sooner or later, Romero will have his too). IMO, he has that "pitchability" quotient that is so important. I think he could end up being a quality #2, probably a very nice #3, and at worse a really good #4.

[Shaitan]

Too bad they can't get their comp pick back if they cut him. I wonder if anyone would risk trading a 3rd rounder for Lynn as a reclamation project. The Twins would break even.

 

Also, they'd be a .500+ team without the games Lynn has started.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Too bad they can't get their comp pick back if they cut him. I wonder if anyone would risk trading a 3rd rounder for Lynn as a reclamation project. The Twins would break even.

 

Also, they'd be a .500+ team without the games Lynn has started.

Draft picks can't be traded in mlb.

[Rosterman]

Thank goodness Lynn IS a one-year contract. Something will have to give when May and Santana return. It better not be Romero or Berrios.

 

Lynn starts vs. equal starts by, say, Slegers or Mejia. Wonder if the Twins would be better off. Of course, wo won't ever know.

 

$14 million disappointment, combined with the $26 million taking up space in the bullpen. Sure, fine to have that 8th pitcher and a short bench, I guess.

 

We can't complain that the Twins don't spend money on free agents. It can be hit and miss. But they sure seem unlucky, in some ways...and shades of Joe Mays and Nick Blackburn on long-term contracts after one generous season.

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

Why not use Hughes in long relief? How about, “because that’s not his role.” When Lynn got pulled, it wasn’t a 5-0 game where you say, “Here, Phil, pitch until your arm falls off.” It was a 3-2 game, and Molitor was probably looking for the most likely candidate to get him 2-3 scoreless innings. Based on the last 16 months, Rogers was probably a better shot than Hughes.

 

But sorry, I’m not ready to give up on Hughes.

 

He’s retired 10 of 12 in his four one-inning stints in the pen, and thrown the vast majority of his pitches for strikes after less than 60 percent for strikes as a starter. Two strikeouts and no walks. The first two games were the ninth inning in blowouts, but Monday was the first time he was tested in a game that was still in the balance. He succeeded, getting three outs on nine pitches with the team down just 1-0 in the ninth. He had a strikeout and two weakly hit balls.

 

It’s true that the two batters he hasn’t retired in relief have each hit homers. But they were each solo, because he hadn’t allowed any other runners. Overall, I think he was probably able to leave each of the four outings with a sense that he had taken at least a small step forward.

 

Those are the incremental steps toward getting the confidence of your manager. I think he’ll get a few more outings in low-leverage situations, but if he is able to continue progressing, I could see him moving into the mix.

[Dantes929]

 

why not give up on him? Slegers or Gonsalves literally can't be worse than unwinnable as starters. Why not cut him and move on? He's shown no improvement all year. If not now, how many more starts like this until you would move on?

The reason to not give up on him is that he has a career track record of being better and he is striking out over 9/9 innings.   I would give him quite a few more starts but if you read my post closely you would see that I would want those starts to be in the minors.    I would love for him and Gonsalves to switch places.   What are you losing by having him try to right himself in the minors?      The guy had very nice career numbers, had good numbers last year and still has strikeout stuff.   Don't you think there is a possible upside if he just stops walking guys?   Twins didn't give up on Crain or Liriano back in the day when they had control issues and were sent to the minors and were rewarded for it.   If he can't earn his way back to the Twins so be it but what will we have lost by giving him the chance?   Its in his best interest also.    If he does well in the minors and then comes up and does well for us it will be a big plus for him on the free agent market next year.  Continuing to do what he is doing at the big league level now is doing neither him nor the Twins any favors.

[howeda7]

I was fearful they would do anything to justify keeping Lynn in the rotation when Santana comes back, even if it meant sending Romero back or Berrios out to "find his curveball". But he's been so awful they will have no choice. Cut Hughes and put Lynn in the long role. It's probably only 2 more starts until Santana is back, so they'll probably give him those two.