Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Romero's Rotation Spot

[Dantes929]

 

I have a really hard time saying it's totally bunk. Just because it hasn't been conclusively proven, does not by any stretch mean it's been debunked. A guy following an incremental innings program blowing his arm isn't proof that it's never been an effective strategy for anyone.

I find it hard to accept that it's not true to some extent. Especially for guys throwing as hard as Romero.

It's like running, or anything else. You have to condition your body over a long period of time. Sure, maybe the act of throwing extra innings in a vacuum isn't a precursor to injury. But, if your body isn't conditioned for that load, you compensate, which opens you up for injury elsewhere. 
 

But for running or anything else you don't build up and then shut down.   To train for a marathon you don't build up to run 5 miles by July and then shut down until the end of the year and then next year build up to 10 miles by June and then shut down until the following year and then to 15 the following year and so on.    Ok, I don't run so maybe you actually do it that way but I am guessing not.   If you say a pitcher needs to condition his arm or body over a long period of time with regards to throwing a 100 pitches or more I would think that is reasonable.   Maybe the problem is the incremental increases in pitches or innings thrown in  Spring Training from start to start is too high.   Maybe optimally Romero is only throwing 70 pitches per start by this point and only builds to 100 by mid June.    I don't know what is optimal but that is the part I agree with you in terms of the need to condition the body. 

 

 " For example, if you're not feeling 100%, and may not get the explosion off the mound you normally would, you may try and horse you're way through the delivery with your back/shoulder/arm a little more."   

 

I agree with this completely and alluded to it in an earlier post.   This is the part that should be monitored and has little to do with innings accumulated in a given year.   It might happen after building up to 20 pitches or 80 pitches.   It might happen after 50 innings or 150 innings.   If a pitcher is doing this that is the time to skip a start and work on mechanics or just give the arm a rest for a few days.   Not the time to shut them down completely.

[IndianaTwin]

First, I like the premise of this new series. I think it has the potential for some great discussions.

 

 

Second, I wrote a lot of this in today’s game recap thread, but it may fit better here.

 

 

A lot of the responses above use the “cut Hughes” language. Sorry, but I’m not ready to give up on him.

 

 

He’s retired 10 of 12 in his four one-inning stints in the pen, and thrown the vast majority of his pitches for strikes after less than 60 percent for strikes as a starter. Two strikeouts and no walks. The first two games were the ninth inning in blowouts, but Monday was the first time he was tested in a game that was still in the balance. He succeeded, getting three outs on nine pitches with the team down just 1-0 in the ninth. He had a strikeout and two weakly hit balls.

 

 

It’s true that the two batters he hasn’t retired in relief have each hit homers. But they were each solo, because he hadn’t allowed any other runners. Overall, I think he was probably able to leave each of the four outings with a sense that he had taken at least a small step forward.

 

 

Those are the incremental steps toward getting the confidence of your manager. I think he’ll get a few more outings in low-leverage situations, but if he is able to continue progressing, I could see him moving into the mix.

 

 

But to the original question, I think the bigger issue at this point is how much longer they can afford to run Lynn out there every five days. Most of the posts have also focused on the Santana question, rather than the May question. But May threw 58 pitches on the 12th — is he scheduled to go tomorrow night? Whenever he goes, I assume the goal is 75 pitches or so.

 

 

This front office has seemed to operate by making their decisions at the last possible minute. Witness the way they played day-by-day on when they actually had to roll out Hughes as a starter amidst the postponements. We didn’t have large amounts of lead time on the fact that Romero was going to get a start.

 

 

Put all those pieces together, and I could see the following. Lynn pitched today and May potentially tomorrow? With a Twins off day tomorrow, Lynn and May are essentially on the same scale. Eventually optioning May is a legit possibility, and I could see wisdom in that, but if May pitches well in the next two rehab starts and Lynn struggles (again) next Tuesday, I could also see making the switch to May on the 28th when he is eligible and Lynn’s turn comes around.

 

 

In other words, one more guaranteed start for Lynn. If he pitches well on the 22nd, he gets to stay around. If not, May on the 28th.

 

 

Then what do you do with Lynn? The optimist in me says that I think Hughes can work his way into the legit bullpen options group by then. The realist in me says that someone is going to get hurt or pitch their way back to Rochester. Either way, Lynn slots into the current Hughes role, seeking to regain his effectiveness in low-leverage situations. He wouldn’t be the first starter forced to make that transition. And if Hughes and Lynn could both actually make that transition, that has the makings of a deep pen!

 

 

Now back to the original question. If from the mix of Romero, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Lynn, and May, there are five that are pitching effectively, add Santana and go to six. If not, Santana replaces the fifth most effective.

 

 

If Romero isn’t among the top four, send him back to Rochester for a few starts and to protect innings, with the possibility of coming back as a starter if needed, or as reliever if not, since 150ish innings is likely the limit.

 

 

(And by the way, if somehow they get through a six-man rotation for a few turns and all are effective, that sounds like a trade brewing, with either Odorizzi or Lynn hitting the road for prospects.)

 

 

Finally, let’s remember that all of these options are better than last year’s choices!

Edited May 17, 2018 by IndianaTwin

[launchingthrees]

I'd really hate to straight up drop a 29 year old with a 3.4 career era but Lynn has been that bad. I don't see any other option.

[jokin]

 

If Santana struggles mightily, which I expect,

 

Is there any evidence to suggest this as the most likely outcome for Santana?

[TL]

Setting aside risk of injury for a moment the questions becomes one of effectiveness. I think you need to keep Romero’s innings low to make sure his arm is not fatigued come Sept/Oct.

 

Really like the idea of piggybacking him with May initially, and then perhaps Santana does the same with Berrios for a while. After the all star break you can reassess and hopefully young and previously injured guys are ready for the stretch run.

 

Interesting question whether that is a better strategy for keeping a guy fresh versus skipping a turn in the rotation now and then.

 

[Don Walcott]

Why would innings be used to measure a pitcher’s work load? Why not pitch count? Some innings are 30 pitches and some are 10. Why would they be considered the same work load? Some guys need 100 pitches to get through 5 innings, while others get through 7. Is the more efficient pitcher putting more stress on his arm by getting more outs per pitch?

Edited May 17, 2018 by Don Walcott

[Platoon]

Since the question was based on who goes in the event nothing else changes, it would most likely be Magill. If it's not him it will probably be Romero. If its not Magill you have Lynn and Hughes in the pen, and Molitor will truly burn up the front end of the pen. Btw, kudos to the poster who pointed out the bad math trying to get by with a 6 man rotation. You still need the same size BP, and then your bench is really short.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is there any evidence to suggest this as the most likely outcome for Santana?

Most likely outcome? Probably not. I believe he was giving his opinion.

I share that opinion.

Why? Surgery to the most important finger on his pitching hand. When the surgery was announced I said I didn't think he'd ever be the same pitcher again, as I think he'll struggle to find his feel for the slider.

As we're seeing with Lance Lynn (who was almost equally as bad last year, just extremely lucky- hence the lack of offers), some pitchers just aren't the same following major surgery.

[Penthang]

It seems like everyone is so ready to bail on Hughes and put Lynn in his bullpen spot. Lynn’s ERA is almos a whole run worse than Hughes, and his WHIP is 2.04 to Hughes at 1.45 … so which one do you dump first. I’m not saying that right now either of them have a spot on a competitive team but please don’t replace bad with worse. Santana to the rotation, May to the bullpen if a rotation spot doesn’t present itself, 4 inning starts for Romero every other time out piggy backed with May and dump the dreck. Rogers may also be a replacement candidate and Gonsalves is looking good and could also spot start if Romero needs to skip a start or two along the way.

[jokin]

 

Most likely outcome? Probably not. I believe he was giving his opinion.
I share that opinion.
Why? Surgery to the most important finger on his pitching hand. When the surgery was announced I said I didn't think he'd ever be the same pitcher again, as I think he'll struggle to find his feel for the slider.
As we're seeing with Lance Lynn (who was almost equally as bad last year, just extremely lucky- hence the lack of offers), some pitchers just aren't the same following major surgery.

 

This is from an article written by Doctor of Physical Therapy, Lucas Seehafer, shortly after Santana's surgery in February:

 

 

All things considered, an MCP release with debridement is a pretty straightforward procedure and one that Santana should bounce back from. The healing process is rather long, but as long as full range of motion is returned, there shouldn’t be many, if any, lingering effects.

 

He doesn't seem to concur your Santana-career-threatening concerns. Are other journalists leaning your guys' way, I haven't heard of any to this point.

[David HK]

Give him Lynn's.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah, if demoting Romero is even considered, then the FO is still in building mode, and not in win mode.

This is silly. The handling of one player doesn't determine if a team is rebuilding or not. Romero still has to go thru the trials and tribulations most young starters have to go thru. No need to panic, these things have a way of working themselves out. Depth is a good thing.

[howieramone2]

 

I'd really hate to straight up drop a 29 year old with a 3.4 career era but Lynn has been that bad. I don't see any other option.

He's not the only proven vet who missed a lot of ST having problems. At worst, we can get an arm and a leg for him at the trade deadline.

Edited May 17, 2018 by howieramone2

[Mike Sixel]

The question was: “What should happen to Fernando Romero when Ervin Santana returns?

 

Well... The latest estimates are Mid-June for Ervin. This makes it an extremely easy can to kick down that road.

 

But if you want an answer? Based on what is going on right now on May 16:

 

It's pretty easy... 4 guys are locked and ain't going anywhere. Romero, Berrios, Odorizzi and Gibson are pitching well. So the choice comes down to Lynn and Santana and the way Lynn is pitching... it isn't much of a choice.

 

May hasn't pitched in awhile and he has an option so you can extend your look at him in the minors to gauge how helpful he might be later when we need him.

 

Santana is the guy that gets the last spot because Lynn is struggling hard. So... you drop Lynn into the pen and you cut loose Magill even though he would not deserve it. You would certainly be obligated to cut Magill with a sincere apology note and a strong letter of recommendation.

 

Everyone is focused on the rotation but I think the 40 Man Roster space is going to be the bigger issue. You can move an arm into the bullpen to relieve the rotation pressure but who do you cut to make room May and Santana.

 

Castro can go on the 60 day and this will allow May to be rostered. For Santana to be moved off the 60 and reinstated, someone has to go and there isn't an easy cut right now. Magill is the only guy you would consider setting free and that is real tough break for him because he is pitching like he wants to stay.

 

Now... If you want the question answered with predictions of what the landscape will look like a month from now: What do you do between Santana and Romero based on the predicted landscape? I predict that someone will be placed on the D.L and both Santana and Romero will be in the rotation.

Every year people worry any the forty man, and every year they leave a ton of guys unprotected. And that's in the off season when teams are looking to add players. I'm not worried.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Pretty lame how many didn't answer the question by saying "Something will happen next two weeks to make the decision for you."

 

Even if that's true, answer the dang question. What do you do if they're all healthy? I only heard two good ideas:

 

1.) Lynn to the pen. He knows he has two weeks, if not he's pen bound.

2.) Six man rotation. This maybe makes you cut Hughes but that's something you might just have to do.

 

But overall, answer the question.

 

 

with the catching, third base and short stop situations as they are, Falvine can not afford to thin the bench any further.

 

Any rotation changes needs to be done at the expense of the bullpen.

 

Hughes has not been utilized in any way that relieves pressure from the pen and can’t be trusted to hold a lead.

 

If an injury doesn’t surface on the pitching staff, and the JP doesn’t give the OK to release Hughes, that bullpen will get stretched very thin.

[ThejacKmp]

 

with the catching, third base and short stop situations as they are, Falvine can not afford to thin the bench any further.

Any rotation changes needs to be done at the expense of the bullpen.

Hughes has not been utilized in any way that relieves pressure from the pen and can’t be trusted to hold a lead.

If an injury doesn’t surface on the pitching staff, and the JP doesn’t give the OK to release Hughes, that bullpen will get stretched very thin.

Perhaps it's a matter of argument. If you're arguing "release Hughes so we can get Buesnitz or Vargas up" it's maybe not as convincing "We need to release Hughes to get Santana into the mix."

[Riverbrian]

 

Every year people worry any the forty man, and every year they leave a ton of guys unprotected. And that's in the off season when teams are looking to add players. I'm not worried.

 

I'm not worried about losing Magill.

 

I just have a thing against removing players who are actually performing at the MLB level from the 40 man. 

 

However... when you get to the point where that is necessary. You can file it under "Good Problem to Have.". 

 

 

 

[iTwins]

 

I really like Tom's suggestion.  Piggy back him with Santana.  Yes, that would mean one less arm in the bullpen.  BUT, the entire bullpen would get a day off every 5 days.  Just may work.

 

Begin with Romero going 5-6 innings with Santana coming in to finish it.  After a few of those games, flip so that Santana comes in and pitches 5-6 innings with Romero finishing.  If Romero only pitches 3+ innings every 5th day for the last half of the season, his innings should be fine and his arm fresh for the playoffs.

 

This was exactly the point I came here to make. Tom's idea seems like a great one - it limits the innings on both arms, and saves the bullpen every fifth day (in theory). At the cost of a bullpen arm who hardly gets used (insert thinly veiled cough masking Phil Hughes' name)  - this makes a lot of sense. 

[jun]

When Santana comes back, Hughes needs to be cut. When May comes back, either Rogers or Lynn needs to be demoted.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not worried about losing Magill.

 

I just have a thing against removing players who are actually performing at the MLB level from the 40 man.

 

However... when you get to the point where that is necessary. You can file it under "Good Problem to Have.".

Why are we talking McGill? He's doing his job. There are other options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

About the 40-man -- in addition to Castro going on the 60-day DL, I could easily see LaMarre and/or Cave getting DFA'd. Plus Petit, as soon as Sano is back. Duffey is pretty expendable at this point too.

[yarnivek1972]

About the 40-man -- in addition to Castro going on the 60-day DL, I could easily see LaMarre and/or Cave getting DFA'd. Plus Petit, as soon as Sano is back. Duffey is pretty expendable at this point too.

I don’t know how wise it would be to DFA Petit. No idea if he is optionable, but it certainly makes good sense to have an injury replacement for the infield already on the 40 man, besides Gordon, who the FO obviously feels is not close.

[howieramone2]

 

May will be ready before Santana so he is the first guy to fit in. To me the best option is to bring up May to start and trade Lynn to an NL team for a A ball lottery ticket or fair to middling AA guy (prob isn't worth any more than that, if that). When Santana is ready, go with a 6 man rotation and 7 man BP if all the starters are pitching well, move a starter to the BP if there's a bad one. Lynn was a flyer, will not be here after this year and an NL team might give you something given his previous success.  he Dodgers need starting pitching, have a good record with getting talented guys on track and have a pretty good system.  Maybe a catcher...  

If you add board favorites Alex Meyer's and Trevor May's victories together, and multiple them times 10, you have Lance Lynn. Note, Whatsamatta Yu and Cobb are off to slow starts also.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t know how wise it would be to DFA Petit. No idea if he is optionable, but it certainly makes good sense to have an injury replacement for the infield already on the 40 man, besides Gordon, who the FO obviously feels is not close.

Petit is not optionable, so it's a moot point.

[Danchat]

 

I don’t know how wise it would be to DFA Petit. No idea if he is optionable, but it certainly makes good sense to have an injury replacement for the infield already on the 40 man, besides Gordon, who the FO obviously feels is not close.

Petit just so happens to have one option remaining, so I imagine he gets optioned instead of DFA'd. For the short amount he's played, he's done a fine job.

 

 

About the 40-man -- in addition to Castro going on the 60-day DL, I could easily see LaMarre and/or Cave getting DFA'd. Plus Petit, as soon as Sano is back. Duffey is pretty expendable at this point too.

I'm just about done with Duffey, and I'd be OK if he was DFA'd. There are enough relievers at AAA that I'd rather see (Moya, Busenitz, Bard and Anderson are non-40 options).

 

 Petit is not optionable, so it's a moot point.

 

Roster Resource is telling me that Petit still has one option left, what's your source?

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by Danchat

[Otto von Ballpark]

Petit just so happens to have one option remaining, so I imagine he gets optioned instead of DFA'd. For the short amount he's played, he's done a fine job.

 

Roster Resource is telling me that Petit still has one option left, what's your source?

Petit's transactions list at MLB.com has him optioned for 20+ days in each of 2015 and 2009. Of course, it really only goes back to 2009. It lists one transaction from March 2008 but ignores how he was also up and down with Oakland that year, as evidenced by his B-Ref minor league game logs and his Fox Sports transactions page, so he almost assuredly used an option that year too. Perhaps Roster Resource is only relying on the post 2008 data? He is 33 years old, who has played in 5 MLB seasons but accumulated only 2 years service time, it would be unusual for him to have an option remaining. Wouldn't be surprising to see a player that old "break" something like Roster Resource.

 

In any case, he has never been claimed on waivers either, and he's basically been a minor league free agent every year for the past 8 winters, so I suspect we could keep him in AAA even if we can't option him. Unless he elected free agency, which could be fairly risky for him to do midseason. Looks like he accepted his previous midseason outright assignment, back in 2015. Of course, he wasn't batting .438 back then either!

Edited May 17, 2018 by spycake

[Riverbrian]

 

Why are we talking McGill? He's doing his job. There are other options.

 

At least 39 other options. 

[Mr. Brooks]

This is from an article written by Doctor of Physical Therapy, Lucas Seehafer, shortly after Santana's surgery in February:

 

 

He doesn't seem to concur your Santana-career-threatening concerns. Are other journalists leaning your guys' way, I haven't heard of any to this point.

No, that's why it's called an opinion. Which i made sure to make very clear I was making.

And I never claimed it would be career threatening. He'll come back healthy enough to pitch, I'm sure. I just think the performance level will be significantly worse than it was the last couple years.

[jokin]

 

No, that's why it's called an opinion. Which i made sure to make very clear I was making.
And I never claimed it would be career threatening. He'll come back healthy enough to pitch, I'm sure. I just think the performance level will be significantly worse than it was the last couple years.

 

Below is your initial response: 

 

 

 

Most likely outcome? Probably not. I believe he was giving his opinion.
I share that opinion.
Why? Surgery to the most important finger on his pitching hand. When the surgery was announced I said I didn't think he'd ever be the same pitcher again, as I think he'll struggle to find his feel for the slider.
As we're seeing with Lance Lynn (who was almost equally as bad last year, just extremely lucky- hence the lack of offers), some pitchers just aren't the same following major surgery.

 

I fear we're going down the path of messy semantic arguments here, but here we go...

 

1) You both agree that Santana will likely "struggle mightily." But then you said "probably not"?

2) Your subsequent comments suggest that he might never be the same pitcher.

3) Lynn's TJ surgery and aftermath is far more problematic than Santana's knuckle joint lock and pain.

4) Nevertheless, given that Santana is 35 and half years old and a 2019 Free Agent, one would logically follow your analysis and conclusions that Santana might forever "struggle mightily", possibly forced to sign minor league make-good deals going forward. I'd call that outcome career-threatening.

5) Certainly Lynn's FA status and 2018 performance stats which are at or near the bottom of all SPs in many categories are career-threatening, until he can prove otherwise. Not many opportunities for a command-free SP.

6) Perhaps we can all agree that Santana might struggle initially upon his return, the injury and long layoff causing some level of struggles for a month or more.

 

7) However, at this point, I prefer the very positive and independent medical opinion for likely eventual full recovery for Santana, with likely results in 2018 a shade or two below his career averages (ala Steamer/Depth Charts).

Edited May 18, 2018 by jokin

[Mr. Brooks]

Below is your initial response:

 

 

I fear we're going down the path of messy semantic arguments here, but here we go...

 

1) You both agree that Santana will likely "struggle mightily." But then you said "probably not"?

2) Your subsequent comments suggest that he might never be the same pitcher.

3) Lynn's TJ surgery and aftermath is far more problematic than Santana's knuckle joint lock and pain.

4) Nevertheless, given that Santana is 35 and half years old and a 2019 Free Agent, one would logically follow your analysis and conclusions that Santana might forever "struggle mightily", possibly forced to sign minor league make-good deals going forward. I'd call that outcome career-threatening.

5) Certainly Lynn's FA status and 2018 performance stats which are at or near the bottom of all SPs in many categories are career-threatening, until he can prove otherwise. Not many opportunities for a command-free SP.

6) Perhaps we can all agree that Santana might struggle initially upon his return, the injury and long layoff causing some level of struggles for a month or more.

 

7) However, at this point, I prefer the very positive and independent medical opinion for likely eventual full recovery for Santana, with likely results in 2018 a shade or two below his career averages (ala Steamer/Depth Charts).

1) Nothing contradictory there. My opinion can differ from the most likely outcome. In this case it does.

 

2) I don't think he'll ever be the same pitcher, no. That won't stop teams from giving him mlb opportunities to fix himself though.

 

3) One may be more problematic than the other, sure. My point is not all pitchers are the same after major surgical procedures.

 

4) Fair enough. But I was going with career threatening in a medical sense. If we're broadening it this far, then yeah, it could limit his opportunities to further his career.

 

7) That's fine. You should prefer whichever opinions you want. That has nothing to do with my opinion, or that of the poster you initially responded to. This is a message board to share opinions. It's not a clearinghouse for facts. People shouldn't have to somehow be expected to "prove" their opinions here, so long as they are not trying to pass them off as facts.