Castro out for Season

[Doomtints]

 

But hopefully Garver would be getting 70% of the at-bats as he showed himself. The deal with Castro was always predicated on him potentially morphing into a backup if Garver showed himself.

 

Exactly.

[Mike Sixel]

I just can't stomach trading 6 years of control of Gonsalves and Gordan for three years of expensive control over a guy who doesn't hit that much better than Garver (but I'd assume is a better defensive catcher). And who makes you either trade Castro for pennies on the dollar in the offseason or send Garver to AAA.

 

Seems like giving up too much and getting too little. Especially since Lucroy would likely cost a relatively marginal prospect and let you go back to the acceptable Castro/Garver pairing for next year.

Gotta give up value to get value. I see your argument, we just don't agree on the conclusion. Which is cool with me. Realmuto put up 3.6fwar last year. I can't see Garver come close to that, and I'm a fan.

 

It stings to trade minor league players.... But that's what teams do, at some point. I doubt Houston regrets the Verlander deal much right now.

[markos]

 

To me the problem with getting Realmuto is that Boston, Cleveland, Anaheim, Seattle and Toronto also have replacement level catchers and should/would be trying to get him also. And knowing Houston, they'll go after any good ballplayer even if there is of a less clear need.

 

Those are the teams the Twins have to get past in the standings.

From things I've read and heard over the years, baseball teams loathe to replace their catcher mid-season for incremental improvements. You've made your opinion of the catcher quality pretty clear in the previous comments, but I think that Toronto, Houston, Seattle and arguably Cleveland are satisfied with their current situations and won't make any upgrades at catcher unless they have an injury or they are getting completely garbage performance. Also, Anaheim doesn't really have the prospect capital to compete for Realmuto. 

 

Also, presumably all of those teams are going to be competing with the Twins for playoff positioning over the next two seasons in addition to 2018. Keeping Realmuto away from them would have added value in that sense - it would really suck to see Cleveland swoop in and shore up one of their weaker positions for the next 3 years.

[markos]

 

Gotta give up value to get value. I see your argument, we just don't agree on the conclusion. Which is cool with me. Realmuto put up 3.6fwar last year. I can't see Garver come close to that, and I'm a fan.

It stings to trade minor league players.... But that's what teams do, at some point. I doubt Houston regrets the Verlander deal much right now.

One other thing to consider is that Garver might have decent value this offseason. So if you assume that the Twins get Realmuto, roll with Realmuto-Garver for this season, then deal Garver in the offseason, they could get back some of the prospect value they spent getting Realmuto in the first place. Catchers - even backup catchers - have pretty high values. Consider what the Twins spent to get JR Murphy, or received for Chris Herrmann or Drew Butera.

[nicksaviking]

 

From things I've read and heard over the years, baseball teams loathe to replace their catcher mid-season for incremental improvements. You've made your opinion of the catcher quality pretty clear in the previous comments, but I think that Toronto, Houston, Seattle and arguably Cleveland are satisfied with their current situations and won't make any upgrades at catcher unless they have an injury or they are getting completely garbage performance. Also, Anaheim doesn't really have the prospect capital to compete for Realmuto. 

 

Also, presumably all of those teams are going to be competing with the Twins for playoff positioning over the next two seasons in addition to 2018. Keeping Realmuto away from them would have added value in that sense - it would really suck to see Cleveland swoop in and shore up one of their weaker positions for the next 3 years.

 

Good point in the highlighted portion. 

 

If it was me though, I think I'd rather have Garver than Russell Martin, Mike Zunino or Yan Gomes, and I'd certainly rather have him starting over the messes Boston and Anaheim have found themselves in. At least there is a hint of potential with Garver that is pretty much missing from every catcher on a contending AL team outside of Gary Sanchez.

[Thrylos]

Chris Herrmann is hitting .255/.435/.394 for the AAA Mariners who need a second baseman badly. Have them add Matt Festa or Art Warren, ship them our current second baseman, bring up Nick Gordon and call it a day.

Win win. And addition by subtraction.

[yarnivek1972]

I guess the question is what do you want from your catcher?

 

If you are looking for a guy like Jason Castro, there are probably 5 sitting in AAA right now. Defensive minded catchers that provide little offense aren’t hard to find. Castro was a plus offense last year, but it was a career offensive year for him. His bat isn’t why he was signed.

 

It sounds like some of you are trying to make up the offense that the Twins aren’t getting from Sano and Buxton by trading for a catcher who is a much greater offensive threat than Castro.

 

I’m not sure that’s a wise approach. If this team doesn’t get plus offense from Sano and Buxton, there won’t be October baseball in Minnesota in the forseeable future IMO. I’m pretty sure Falvine understands that. And also IMO trading the farm for a guy that won’t push them over the top would be a huge mistake. If Sano and Buxton were healthy and this team was cruising along with a .600 winning pct, I’d say sure. The reality is this team has a lot of holes. I’m not at all sure that acquiring a catcher is the best way to utilize the minor league talent the franchise has.

[markos]

 

Good point in the highlighted portion. 

 

If it was me though, I think I'd rather have Garver than Russell Martin, Mike Zunino or Yan Gomes, and I'd certainly rather have him starting over the messes Boston and Anaheim have found themselves in. At least there is a hint of potential with Garver that is pretty much missing from every catcher on a contending AL team outside of Gary Sanchez.

I would definitely take Zunino over Garver - he is actually 2 months younger than Garver and just had a 3.6 fWAR season in 2017. For the record, Realmuto is also 2 months younger than Garver.

[Vanimal46]

Chris Herrmann is hitting .255/.435/.394 for the AAA Mariners who need a second baseman badly. Have them add Matt Festa or Art Warren, ship them our current second baseman, bring up Nick Gordon and call it a day.

Win win. And addition by subtraction.

Not sure if serious. This trade would cause riots in the streets.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Gotta give up value to get value. I see your argument, we just don't agree on the conclusion. Which is cool with me. Realmuto put up 3.6fwar last year. I can't see Garver come close to that, and I'm a fan.

It stings to trade minor league players.... But that's what teams do, at some point. I doubt Houston regrets the Verlander deal much right now.

 

Yeah but Houston was a World Series contender that traded prospects for the piece that could put them over the top. The Twins are not even a favored Wild Card contender and by most people's view, are a year or two away from a real Championship Window.

 

I guess the first question is "Does Realmuto make the Twins a contender?" I think few people would say Yes to that. That makes developing Garver a smarter call - especially since Gordon and Gonsalves line up better with the heart of the Twins window.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Chris Herrmann is hitting .255/.435/.394 for the AAA Mariners who need a second baseman badly. Have them add Matt Festa or Art Warren, ship them our current second baseman, bring up Nick Gordon and call it a day.

Win win. And addition by subtraction.

 

Oh Thrylos. You crazy crazy ---___-. You want to trade Brian Dozier for Chris Hermann and a AA reliever. We'd give up an all-star second baseman and get back a bad catcher who can't make the major league roster and a lottery ticket.

 

I vote for anyone to become GM over Thrylos. Literally anyone.

[Thrylos]

 

Oh Thrylos. You crazy crazy ---___-. You want to trade Brian Dozier for Chris Hermann and a AA reliever. We'd give up an all-star second baseman and get back a bad catcher who can't make the major league roster and a lottery ticket.

 

I vote for anyone to become GM over Thrylos. Literally anyone.

 

All star?  Brian Dozier in high leverage situations for the Twins this season (before today) : .353 OPS, .156 wOBA, -14 wRC+. Overall -0.64 WPA and -2.98 RE24

 

Those are hardly replacement level numbers, despite the semi-deification of Dozier for some reason.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If you are looking for a guy like Jason Castro, there are probably 5 sitting in AAA right now. Defensive minded catchers that provide little offense aren’t hard to find. Castro was a plus offense last year, but it was a career offensive year for him. His bat isn’t why he was signed.

 

Jason Castro is not an elite hitting catcher but people are really falling victim to recency bias here with the slow start. Castro has a career OPS+ of 92. That's pretty solid for a catcher known for his defense.

 

There's no way there are five Castros sitting in AAA. If there were, they would be in the majors soon.

 

I think Bobby Wilson is the best argument that Jason Castros don't grow on trees.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah but Houston was a World Series contender that traded prospects for the piece that could put them over the top. The Twins are not even a favored Wild Card contender and by most people's view, are a year or two away from a real Championship Window.

 

I guess the first question is "Does Realmuto make the Twins a contender?" I think few people would say Yes to that. That makes developing Garver a smarter call - especially since Gordon and Gonsalves line up better with the heart of the Twins window.

. Realmuto is younger and better than Garver and would be here in the window of Buxton and Sano. I'm not sure I understand, do you not expect them to contend next year or the year after? I like Gordon more than most, but he's a serious step down from Dozier.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Not sure if serious. This trade would cause riots in the streets.

 

Riots of joy when the Twins have someone who can drive runners in scoring position in, occasionally...

[Mill1634]

Who do we add to the 40 man? 

[nicksaviking]

 

Not sure if serious. This trade would cause riots in the streets.

 

It was only meant to cause a riot here.

 

***Moderator note***

 

Let's keep this discussion on topic. That means not derailing this thread with arguments about how good Brian Dozier is or is not and it also means not trolling the board with clearly intentional derailment bait.

[ThejacKmp]

 

. Realmuto is younger and better than Garver and would be here in the window of Buxton and Sano. I'm not sure I understand, do you not expect them to contend next year or the year after? I like Gordon more than most, but he's a serious step down from Dozier.

 

Realmuto is two months younger than Garver. Let's not go overboard on younger. Realmuto is a free agent in 2021. Mitch Garver is a free agent in 2024. It's not all about age. It's about expense and free agency.

 

I expect them to contend but it's not time to go all-in for a guy who isn't the final piece and who may not be a significant upgrade over the guy they have right now.

 

How are the Twins going to make the jump from playoff contender to World Series contender? Is it by adding a catcher? I think not, that barely moves the dial. They're going to need to replace a few aging veterans (Mauer and Dozier) while building a competitive pitching staff from within (not likely to get an ace in free agency). That makes Gordon important as an option to replace Dozier and Gonsalves important as a starter with #3 potential in AAA. A 2020 pitching staff of Romero, Berrios, Gonsalves etc. is going to be way more important than having Realmuto in a contract year.

[Doomtints]

1) The Twins would overpay for Realmuto. Forget it.

2) Why the heck would the Marlins give up a good, cheap guy they can control until 2021? They can build up the rest of the team without giving up their once-in-a-generation catcher. Every other position will prove much easier to upgrade.

[Mike Sixel]

By getting better all around, by adding MLB talent. Assuming Gordon is worse than Dozier next year, how are they better next year? If it is from their existing players, well, all those but Gordon and Gonsalves would still be here, except Dozier. And Sano and Buxton don't have much window left after this year. Realmuto aligns much better to their time here than Gordon does.

[Mike Sixel]

1) The Twins would overpay for Realmuto. Forget it.

2) Why the heck would the Marlins give up a good, cheap guy they can control until 2021? They can build up the rest of the team without giving up their once-in-a-generation catcher. Every other position will prove much easier to upgrade.

Which position is easier? They're not giving up on one of these out fielders. Or SS, assuming they like Polanco. Or 2b, unless they upgrade from Dozier? Or third base. And not first base this year.

[GP830]

The more I dwell on this, the more I'd rather try and get a real defense-first back-up and let Garver flourish. We can use our prospects on acquiring more pressing needs in the next few months. I continue to believe that one or two more big arms in the pen would be necessary, and would override the need for a big name starter. Though I would certainly take an Archer, Nola, and be willing to move a strong starter to the pen. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Which position is easier? They're not giving up on one of these out fielders. Or SS, assuming they like Polanco. Or 2b, unless they upgrade from Dozier? Or third base. And not first base this year.

 

He's talking about the Marlins.

[ThejacKmp]

 

1) The Twins would overpay for Realmuto. Forget it.

2) Why the heck would the Marlins give up a good, cheap guy they can control until 2021? They can build up the rest of the team without giving up their once-in-a-generation catcher. Every other position will prove much easier to upgrade.

 

Agreed on #1.

 

For #2, one reason is that Realmuto is very unhappy to be the last guy left on the Marlins. He's asked to be traded several times. He's also unlikey to be this good when the Marlins are good in 3-5 years. He'll be a catcher in his 30s.

 

P.S. "Once in a generation" seems hyperbolic. He's a good catcher, he's not Buster Posey. Or Joe Mauer.

[Mike Sixel]

He's talking about the Marlins.

Ha. Yes he is. My bad

[yarnivek1972]

Jason Castro is not an elite hitting catcher but people are really falling victim to recency bias here with the slow start. Castro has a career OPS+ of 92. That's pretty solid for a catcher known for his defense.

 

There's no way there are five Castros sitting in AAA. If there were, they would be in the majors soon.

 

I think Bobby Wilson is the best argument that Jason Castros don't grow on trees.

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

 

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

[Mike Sixel]

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

 

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

A 3.6 war catcher will help way more than a closer. Way more. And he's not old, and controlled for two and two thirds years.

[Mike Sixel]

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

 

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

You keep typing we are trying to replace Sano with him.... No.... Castro and Garver are replaced. It's a huge step up from them. It's not about Sano and Buxton at all, other than trying to surround them with great players, unlike sitting on Mauer and morneau and not adding talent.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

 

I've made the second point all over this board so not disagreement there - the twins should look for a better backup and trust Garver. I vote Lucroy if the price is low. But no way your specific point remains valid.

Go find the five Castros. Actually, find three. You find three third catchers (minors or MLB) who aren't hotshot prospects, hit at Castro's level (to make it easier, let's say 10% better that Castro MLB in AAA and 20% better in AA), and are considered at least average defensively. Find those and your point has teeth. But that's not going to happen. Guys who can hit at Castro's level are at least backup catchers.

 

Your park argument doesn't make much sense:

 

1. Houston's stadium is #21 in park factor while Target Field is #24. So Castro hitting better at those parks than the others has nothing to do with some inflating park factor. In fact it's impressive he hit better at home since it's harder. Even if the park was a factor, the new guy would also get to hit at Target Field so it wouldn't change anything.
2. Most players hit better at home than on the road so not sure what the bigger point you're making. There's no rational reason to throw out Castro's home numbers, which are based on a large sample of success.
3. The Twins won't be finding a catcher they only use on the road so throwing out Jason Castro's home numbers is bizarre at best. His hitting is his overall

Using math doesn't mean that the logic behind it makes sense. Unless I'm missing something.

[ThejacKmp]

 

A 3.6 war catcher will help way more than a closer. Way more. And he's not old, and controlled for two and two thirds years.

 

But subtract the WAR you lose from Castro/Garver for next year (and to be fair, add what you're giving up in Bobby Wilson!). And then the WAR you could get from Gonsalves and Gordon (and whoever else) in the future.* It's not just adding a 3.6 WAR catcher, it's what you give up. It's easy to say "Go get the best available player" but harder to take the cost into consideration.

 

* We've been talking Gonsalves and Gordon but that could very easily not be enough. The Red Sox, Brewers and several other teams have been listed as Realmuto targets. The Marlins have no incentive to make a trade now when the market may develop further by the deadline - unless you make an offer they can't refuse.