Article: What Can Be Done to Awaken Slumbering Twins Offense?

[USAFChief]

 

The problem aren't going to be fixed by bringing up more young guys, or acquiring whatever dumpster fodder is out there right now. The issue lies with the current "veteran" players.

1). Sano is supposed to be the anchor of the lineup. He's supposed to provide run production by way of power, but he also sees a lot of pitches...which can have a ripple effect throughout the lineup as you get into bullpens earlier, etc. His presence can also provide that proverbial "protection" factor. Hes arguably the most important component of the lineup, and it's not there.

2). Morrison has been awful, and he's been sucking up a lot of ABs with runners on. He was hitting the heart of the order for a significant stretch. He's not necessarily a key cog (see second half last year without him), but he certainly could be making up for Sano's absence, but the production hasn't been there.

3). Dozier was great for a few weeks, but has kind of tapered off. We've seen it in the past, the lineup goes as Dozier goes. The consistency isn't there. He'll go on a torrid stretch and hit 6 homers in a week. Then, the other three weeks of the month he'll strike out a ton and meekly pop everything up to the left side of the infield. The production at the end of the year looks nice, but he's actually not helping you win all that many games (how beneficial is a 3 homer game and a 10-1 win one day of the week, followed by five 3-2 type losses?).

Those, IMO, are the main issues. Getting some consistency out of Dozier, getting Sano healthy, and getting some semblance of production from Morrison....along with the contributions from Mauer, Escobar, Rosario, Kepler....could really light the powder keg.

Also, the struggling pitching has to have an impact. When you repeatedly score runs to get a lead in the 5th-6th-7th inning, and it's repeatedly given right back by the pitching staff in the subsequent half inning, it probably takes a little wind out of your sail.

Perceptions are hard to change.

 

Morrison hasn't been awful recently. He was awful for the first couple weeks of the season.

 

Last 28 days for Morrison: .266/.356/.481. 4 HR, 11 RBI, 12 RS. Slightly higher the last 14 days.

 

By comparison, Mauer the last 28 days: .241/.359/.299. 3 XBH and 4 RBI in a month. woof.

 

 

[wsnydes]

 

Perceptions are hard to change.

 

Morrison hasn't been awful recently. He was awful for the first couple weeks of the season.

 

Last 28 days for Morrison: .266/.356/.481. 4 HR, 11 RBI, 12 RS. Slightly higher the last 14 days.

 

By comparison, Mauer the last 28 days: .241/.359/.299. 3 XBH and 4 RBI in a month. woof.

Agreed on Morrison.  He's been much better of late.

 

I'll add this though.  Comparing the RBI totals for the two is odd.  Mauer has been hitting 1 or 2 in the order with nobody in front of him producing.  Morrison has been hitting behind the heart of the order that has largely been productive this past month.  Easier to drive guys in when they're there to drive in, HR's or not.  You're correct though, he hasn't been very good this past month.  this team could really use a real lead-off hitter.  Dozier and Mauer aren't real lead-off guys to start with, but they need to step up before this offense will really take off.

[Mike Sixel]

Realmuto is a great short and long term solution. They won't do it, imo. I have been asking for this for months, but I don't see it happening. As for what happens when Castro gets back? Well, include Garver in the trade, and you don't have to worry about it...

 

Gordon should have been up when Sano went down. They didn't do it. Can't see it happening now.

 

Wade should have been up when Buxton went down, they didn't do it. Pretty unlikely it happens now.

 

I'd guess none of those is happening soon.

 

That leaves just going with what they have and assuming it gets better, for now.

[nicksaviking]

I've seen this one before in 2003. The team had a bunch of pretty good young hitters who just didn't seem to be syncing up their productivity. They traded for a veteran outfielder in Shannon Stewart who was a good-not-great player but who brought a name-brand excitement to the clubhouse which sparked the team the rest of the year.

 

I'd see about trying to get Adam Jones. He's not the OBP machine Stewart was but he's a name-brand vet that would get young guys excited. And he's right handed and can play CF. This team really needs a RH bat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They are at 8-4 since the beginning of the White Sox series. In those games, they are 5-3 against .500 or better teams that either are or could be playoff contenders. It may not be the most fun way to watch our team win baseball games...it would be much more fun to watch them score 8 runs a game. But if they’ve won 5 of 8 against playoff contenders without their offense clicking I think that’s room for optimism if anything, because I too agree that things will get better offensively. Their starters have started pitching competitively and their bullpen has somehow managed to hang onto a lot of narrow leads. Let’s go twins!

Look at the scores of those games. If the offense is clicking, they add a couple more wins and are REALLY rolling as a team. The pitching has been *very* good more often than not.

 

Here are the runs scored in those four losses:

 

5

4

1

0

 

The offense has stumbled quite often this season. You expect to see that from pretty much any offense over 162 but if the Twins were consistently posting 3+ runs (not exactly a lofty bar to reach), they'd be one of the best teams in the league in the month of May.

[Mike Sixel]

They aren't young. Mauer, Dozier, Morrison, Castro, Escobar.... And it isn't like Rosario and Buxton are in year two of being MLB players. They aren't even in the top ten in being young. The Yankees and Red Sox are younger, on offense, for example.

 

They just aren't good enough. That said, trading for an actual hitter would be helpful. What position would you replace? You aren't getting a first baseman or DH. Or a second baseman, or third, or outfielder....

[slash129]

Gordon isn't going to happen.  Levine basically said so in an interview, when he was out at Frontier Field.  His defense and base-running aren't there yet.

 

They can't be making all decisions based on offensive slash lines.

 

Also, Buxton once again proved that he can change games with his speed.  He got in the Cardinals' heads with his speed on his bunt and then swiped third on a wild pitch that didn't really get that far from the catcher.  None of that stuff shows up in the slash line.

[Mike Sixel]

Gordon isn't going to happen. Levine basically said so in an interview, when he was out at Frontier Field. His defense and base-running aren't there yet.

 

They can't be making all decisions based on offensive slash lines.

 

Also, Buxton once again proved that he can change games with his speed. He got in the Cardinals' heads with his speed on his bunt and then swiped third on a wild pitch that didn't really get that far from the catcher. None of that stuff shows up in the slash line.

And all the times he failed to get a hit are cancelled out? The slash line tells a pretty accurate story. Imo.

[awinter]

Crazy theory coming at ya.

The lineup needs it to be August/September. Here's the team OPS by month since 2017:

Apr17  .707

May17 .786

Jun17  .705

Jul17   .736

Aug17  .849

Sep17  .804

Apr18   .721

May18  .723

[slash129]

 

And all the times he failed to get a hit are cancelled out? The slash line tells a pretty accurate story. Imo.

 

It only tells what happens in the batter's box.  Last time I checked, there is a lot of baseball that happens outside the batter's box.  

[joefish]

As much as I like Mauer, I sure wish his bat had a little more pop in it. Lead by example, Joe. Rolling over on those ground balls up the middle gets old.

It's time for Ehire to go south.

[twins1095]

 

And all the times he failed to get a hit are cancelled out? The slash line tells a pretty accurate story. Imo.

 

It does tell a relatively accurate story, but I think it's important to note that Buxton is more efficient with his opportunities on base than other guys--maybe more so than any player on the bases. 

 

He's gonna pick up more bases and ultimately score more runs than other guys which means he doesn't need to be on base as much to ultimately produce the same amount of runs as other guys.  

 

So the slash line does tell an accurate story, but there's a little more value there to that slash line than meets the eye because of how efficient and productive he is when on base. 

[Mike Sixel]

It does tell a relatively accurate story, but I think it's important to note that Buxton is more efficient with his opportunities on base than other guys--maybe more so than any player on the bases.

 

He's gonna pick up more bases and ultimately score more runs than other guys which means he doesn't need to be on base as much to ultimately produce the same amount of runs as other guys.

 

So the slash line does tell an accurate story, but there's a little more value there to that slash line than meets the eye because of how efficient and productive he is when on base.

I agree, but if you can't get on base, it has less value to be good once you do. There is still a ton of hope, he's not exactly old. But here's just not a good enough hitter so far, alas. Great defender and base runner.... Not even a meh hitter yet.

[twins1095]

 

I agree, but if you can't get on base, it has less value to be good once you do. There is still a ton of hope, he's not exactly old. But here's just not a good enough hitter so far, alas. Great defender and base runner.... Not even a meh hitter yet.

 

Right.  I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying that generally Buxton needs less times on base to produce the amount of runs compared to other players who need higher slash lines to produce the same amount of runs. 

 

There's some context to be had too.  Buxton's struggled a bunch this season at the plate I'm not arguing that, but the sample size is small and most of it comes through a stretch in which injuries/etc further give reason to explain, but not excuse, the poor slash.  

 

Last year Buxton started out 4-49 in his first 13 games for a slash line of .082-.135-.257 with 1 run - 2 doubles - 0 3B - 0 HR - 0 RBI - 1 SB - 2 BB - 24 K's (~10% of the season)

 

In the final 120 games Buxton played and 410 ABs (~90% of the season) for a slash line of .275/.335/.785 - 9 BB% - 30K% with 68 runs - 12 2B - 6 3B - 16 HR - 51 RBI - 28 SB 

 

162 game pace for that production is: 90 runs - 16 2B - 8 3B - 21 HR - 68 RBI - 37 SB

__________________________________________________________________________

 

I would argue that volume season numbers do matter, but should be taken with context.  For 90% of Buxton's season (and consistently over a 122 game stretch) Buxton performed like the 2nd stat line--that's a lot of production from the bottom of the order.  If you told me that a 9/10 times you're getting a player with the bottom line with the kind of defense Buxton plays I'm ecstatic.  

 

Even with the struggles to begin the year and the inconsistency, etc. Buxton's WAR numbers put him, depending on which calculation, somewhere in the top 15-25 position players from a value standpoint.  Yes, a lot of that comes from his defense...Yes he's streaky...Yes he strikes out too much...Yes he isn't likely to ever develop into the hitter he was projected to have the potential to be.  But with all of those things in mind, none of those very valid criticisms seem to bar him from being a borderline elite value player.   

 

_________________________________________________________________________

 

I think we need to take a longer view here.  I understand all of the frustrations, especially as a hitter and in terms of health consistency and especially viewed within the context of what Buxton could be if some of these inconsistencies were fixed.  But I think this lens prevents appreciation of what Buxton actually is despite a current track that suggests he's going to leave some potential and maybe quite a bit of potential on the table.  But even leaving that on the table, Buxton is still tracking towards a player who, with what he does have, can be a top 20 or borderline top 20 position player in terms of positive value to  a team. 

 

Yes, there's a lot of potential that is being left on the table, but there's also a lot there...even as a hitter.  

[jkcarew]

 

I agree, but if you can't get on base, it has less value to be good once you do. There is still a ton of hope, he's not exactly old. But here's just not a good enough hitter so far, alas. Great defender and base runner.... Not even a meh hitter yet.

Agreed.  There's no such thing as a valuable position player OPS+'ing 23...or 60 or 70.  Even in center field there are not enough opportunities (that average defensive players wouldn't make) to make up for outs at the rate he's made them for long stretches of his career to date.  He could be a combination of Usain Bolt and Lou Brock on the bases, wouldn't matter.  Too many outs.  But, if he hits balls over the fence 15-20 times each year and improves the obp part of it even moderately, he's a star.  And that's what he looked like he was going to be capable of at the end of last year.  We'll see.

 

Regarding the rest of the team...other than CF...1B, DH and SS are the positions with probably the biggest offensive delta between the Twins and league average.  Theoretically, SS gets fixed when Sano comes back (and/or Polanco comes back), DH is trending in the right direction.  And nothing's going to be done about 1B.  So...let's hope the guys start hitting!

[Han Joelo]

Trade Sano for Machado.

[DocBauer]

Hate to beat a dead horse with a broken record, but have to say again I felt this team would hover around .500 to begin the season and then take off. Why? Despite some good veterans, there's still a lot of young players that make up this team, and it's future, and all players get hot and cold spells, but a collection of 24-26yo players are still going through learning curves. And there is the intangible complexity of just adding a number of new players to the roster.

 

Other than Lynn, we are starting to see this team mesh as of late. But to the key points:

 

1] Gordon and Wade. Love Gordon's season and potential. I know he's still working on things, but he'd be able to play almost daily...if given the opportunity...and it's sort of a "Why not" considering the Polanco suspension and Adrianza's play thus far. (I wouldn't just dump Adrianza). No to Wade. I like him, but I just don't see him coming up to mostly sit on the bench.

 

Grossman has been hitting better. Grossman has some decent value. But not brining in someone to challenge/replace him was the one major guffaw by the FO this past off season. It's not too late. At this point, I'd rather have ST sensation and early season performer LaMarre. But go out and find a solid, quality bat/OF to be that 4th guy.

 

2] Buxton to the minors. Didnt happen, probably not going to happen. Still think the Granite injury complicated this situation. I would have loved even a few games just to get some timing back. But his defense, and even the bunt and his base running the other day shows his value even as he works his way back.

 

3] Get a catcher. There is a whole different thread on this so I will be brief. You have a young, inexperienced catcher now thrust in the limelight. But he has potential, has picked his bat up with more regular play, has caught several outstanding games, and deserves a chance...for a few weeks at least...before pulling a trigger for something other than depth.

 

4] Shake up the lineup. Molitor has done that. I like Mauer leading off with Dozier hitting second. Molitor has been experimenting. I like that as well. The biggest problem has been clutch hitting. THAT is not on Molitor. (A poor 7-9 with bench players hasn't helped).

 

Mostly, this remains about patience. I know this is about offense, but consider all the new pitchers. Consider Santana out, Sano out, Buxton out, Polanco out entirely, bad weather, missed games, lack of consistency, travel schedules, etc, and we're sitting around .500 and playing much better as of late despite that horrendously bad stretch.

 

Morisson is starting to heat up. Find a legitimate replacement for Grossman offensively and defensively. Give Garver a real chance for the next few weeks. Make room for Gordon and start his clock and play him daily because, why the hell not?

[TheLeviathan]

I think there are only two important things to emphasize:

 

Get Sano back.

 

Fix Buxton.  I don't know what the issue is but he's had nothing more than a month or two where he's been outrageous and the rest of the time he's so bad at the plate he starts to make me remember Drew Butera.  And I don't like to remember Drew Butera.  We already have Bobby Wilson for that anyway.

[Doctor Wu]

What's Oswaldo Arica doing nowadays? Ha! Just kidding! Then again ....

[Mike Sixel]

The Yankees and Red Sox players that age don't seem to need time to warm up. Why should the Twins get this excuse? They aren't a young team.

[howieramone2]

 

They aren't young. Mauer, Dozier, Morrison, Castro, Escobar.... And it isn't like Rosario and Buxton are in year two of being MLB players. They aren't even in the top ten in being young. The Yankees and Red Sox are younger, on offense, for example.

They just aren't good enough. That said, trading for an actual hitter would be helpful. What position would you replace? You aren't getting a first baseman or DH. Or a second baseman, or third, or outfielder....

Did you know last year at this time they were the second youngest team in all of baseball, based on weighted playing time?   I saw it on this very board. I don't agree with you that they have suddenly become old and decrepit. 

Edited May 17, 2018 by howieramone2

[Mike Sixel]

Did you know last year at this time they were the second youngest team in all of baseball, based on weighted playing time? I saw it on this very board. I don't agree with you that they have suddenly become old and decrepit.

I didn't say they were old. There is space between old and young. These aren't numbers I made up, all you have to do is read fangraphs or follow one of their former writers on Twitter. Or, run the numbers like I did. They aren't young. They are about median.

 

The Red Sox have five regulars 26 or younger. Including a 21 year old, for example, but no one thinks of them as young.

 

I ran the numbers. I read others that did the same. It's a fact, not an opinion.

 

The other teams are not stagnant. Many of them called up young players since the start of last year. The Twins have not added any young position players in the last two years. That's not a criticism, it just is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Red Sox have five regulars 26 or younger. Including a 21 year old, for example, but no one thinks of them as young.

Why wouldn't anyone think of the Red Sox as young? I sure do. Like you said, they have five regulars 26 or younger. It causes me a lot of pain to see how young the BoSox and Yankees have become over the past couple of years.

 

When Polanco and Sano return, the Twins will have the same number of guys 26 or younger in the lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

Why wouldn't anyone think of the Red Sox as young? I sure do. Like you said, they have five regulars 26 or younger.

 

When Polanco and Sano return, the Twins will have the same number of guys 26 or younger in the lineup.

That's my point.... The Twins seem young, until you start looking at other teams. They are just like most other teams. Unless people are arguing most teams are young, but then I don't know what young means, as I consider it a comparative term

[howieramone2]

 

I didn't say they were old. There is space between old and young. These aren't numbers I made up, all you have to do is read fangraphs or follow one of their former writers on Twitter. Or, run the numbers like I did. They aren't young. They are about median.

The Red Sox have five regulars 26 or younger. Including a 21 year old, for example, but no one thinks of them as young.

I ran the numbers. I read others that did the same. It's a fact, not an opinion.

The other teams are not stagnant. Many of them called up young players since the start of last year. The Twins have not added any young position players in the last two years. That's not a criticism, it just is.

They were already young enough, why would they want to get younger? The object is to win games right? Do you have any idea, how many teams are in some form of rebuild? If you want to do the rebuid thing some more, feel free. I'm getting ready for the play-offs the next bunch of years.

[Mike Sixel]

They were already young enough, why would they want to get younger? The object is to win games right? Do you have any idea, how many teams are in some form of rebuild? If you want to do the rebuid thing some more, feel free. I'm getting ready for the play-offs the next bunch of years.

I didn't say they should do anything. I merely pointed out they aren't young compared to other teams. Nothing more or less. Well, I did say their she and experience shouldn't be an excuse anymore also.

 

They have a good mix of ages, probably.

 

My post was, quite literally, pointing out there aren't young. Nothing more or less.

[twinssporto]

I would continue to let Buxton play.  His bat will come around and his defense is too important to waste in AAA.  I would love to see us bring up Flash Gordon.  That might provide a real spark.

 

Regarding Sano, I hope I'm wrong but I don't think Sano has the durability to be a huge factor on this team this year.  We can pray for a Sano storm but I think the production will be choppy and inconsistent.  A ton of strikeouts then some massive homers, slump, homer, strikeout...

[Mike Sixel]

I would continue to let Buxton play.  His bat will come around and his defense is too important to waste in AAA.  I would love to see us bring up Flash Gordon.  That might provide a real spark.

 

Regarding Sano, I hope I'm wrong but I don't think Sano has the durability to be a huge factor on this team this year.  We can pray for a Sano storm but I think the production will be choppy and inconsistent.  A ton of strikeouts then some massive homers, slump, homer, strikeout...

He's about a million times the hitter Buxton is. Sano is the new Mauer.

[twinssporto]

 

He's about a million times the hitter Buxton is. Sano is the new Mauer.

As I said in my post, I hope I'm wrong about Sano......I do agree that when Sano is playing he's probably two million times the hitter Buxton is.  However, it will be interesting to see how durable Sano (and Buxton for that matter) is this year and what type of production he ends up with. I'm cautiously optimistic.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's my point.... The Twins seem young, until you start looking at other teams. They are just like most other teams. Unless people are arguing most teams are young, but then I don't know what young means, as I consider it a comparative term

I think we’re just disagreeing that a couple of other good young teams existing makes none of them young. In my mind, I consider the Twins, Yankees, and Red Sox young teams.

 

And it’s likely the Twins continue to be young for awhile because they are going to add more prospects this season.