Article: LAA 7, MIN 4: What’s Up With Berrios?

[Tom Froemming]

Jose Berrios had another poor start, the bullpen made matters worse and the Twins failed to mount a second comeback after they’d tied the game in the sixth inning. But hey, Byron Buxton is back, Brian Dozier was 4-for-4 and Max Kepler can hit lefties now, so we got that going for us.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Download attachment: Snap510.png Download attachment: WinEX510.png

Berrios allowed the Angels to build a 4-0 lead and ended the night with five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings. Jose gave up seven hits, two of them homers, walked a batter, hit two more and only recorded two strikeouts.

 

Berrios averaged 93.4 mph on his fastball and topped out at 95.2, so there doesn’t appear to be anything amiss with his arm, but something clearly isn’t right. He especially seemed to have a hard time spotting his curveball. There were a few calls that didn’t go his way early, not sure if that had any lingering effects as he tried to feel out the strike zone.

 

This was Berrios’ eighth start of the season. He’s given up zero runs in three starts and four earned runs or more in the other five.

 

The Twins had a nice rally in the sixth inning to tie the game. Brian Dozier, who has been in a terrible slump, hit a three-run homer. He ended the game 4-for-4.

Then Max Kepler made it back-to-back jacks with a homer off lefty Jose Alvarez.

In 2016, Max hit two homers in 133 plate appearances against lefties. Last season, it was two again, this time in 137 PAs. Kepler hit his second home run off a lefty already this season, and it has taken him only 32 opportunities to do so.

 

Unfortunately, Ryan Pressly struggled in the bottom of that inning, allowing a runner he inherited from Berrios to score along with a run of his own, coughing up the lead back to the Angels.

 

Just to make it an especially fun night for the fans in Anaheim, rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani obliterated a homer off Trevor Hildenberger in the seventh inning. Buxton was 0-for-2 with a couple of strikeouts and a walk.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen510.png

Next Three Games

Fri at LAA, 9:07 pm CT

Sat at LAA, 8:07 pm CT

San at LAA, 3:07 pm CT

 

Last Three Games

MIN 7, STL 1: Five Alive

MIN 6, STL 0: Fernand0 R0mer0!!!!

MIN 5, CHW 3: Rosario Lifts Twins to Third Straight Victory

 

More From Twins Daily

Buxton’s Back: Was No Rehab a Mistake?

This Dozier Recipe May be a New One

Get To Know Miracle Catcher Taylor Grzelakowski

 

Click here to view the article

[h2oface]

No relief. That hurt. How is that new pitching coach working out?

 

Sure could have used something other that zeros from Escobar, Rosario, and Morrison tonight. Berrios? I hope he gets it together. Talk about missing the catchers targets tonight.

[rv78]

 

No relief. That hurt. How is that new pitching coach working out?

 

Sure could have used something other that zeros from Escobar, Rosario, and Morrison tonight. Berrios? I hope he gets it together. Talk about missing the catchers targets tonight.

And why should Escobar and Rosario be expected to carry this team every night? There are other guys in the lineup that they aren't getting any run production from. When was the last time Mauer drove in 3 or 4 runs? How about whoever is catching? No production from that spot lately. Yes Morrison has been a bust. Adrianza has done nothing. So, Dozier and Keplar delivered last night.... Where's Sano? Where's Polonco? Where's Buxton? Those 3 bats were suppose to be a big part of the lineup resurgence. Only 4 of the 9 guys in the current Twins lineup are producing runs, Rosario, Escobar, Keplar and Dozier. The other 5 aren't tough to pitch to and other teams know it. And yes, Berrios looks like an Ace 1 minute and a lost little leaguer the next. His command of his pitches is a guessing game at this point. He's got great movement on his pitches but he doesn't know where it is going once he releases it. Not good!

[mikelink45]

My take away is that we are playing another really good team and we do not do well against really good teams.  This is a real problem if we really think we are ready to compete in the post season.  

 

Berrios has no consistency and that is a worry.  According to Gladden three of the balls he through in the first inning walk were really strikes.  Has anyone plotted his performance when he has an umpire who squeezes the zone?  And why aren't we using technology to get the strikes right?  We want to get the home runs correct, we want to have replays, why not strikes - the most fundamental of all calls?

 

I suspect we have over worked Pressly already.  Molitor goes with the hot hand like he did Hildenberger last year, but the pitching coach needs to prevent him from over use.

 

Kepler is certainly starting out like our break out star for this year, but Buxton and his batting is a problem.  How many balls does he have to catch that no one else can to offset his miserable at bats. I do give the team credit for fighting back to tie the game.

[slash129]

He's a dumpster fire right now.

[wsnydes]

Anyone expecting Buxton to come in after not playing in 3 weeks and suddenly become a hitting machine is fooling themselves.  He wasn't hitting before he got hurt, so taking that much time off and expecting him to come out of the gates on fire with the bat is silly.  That's why there are articles about whether or not it was a good idea to not send him on a rehab stint.  The fact that he wasn't hitting before probably should have been reason enough to send him on a rehab stint.  The team needs his defense, but they need his bat to come alive too.  I hope that this doesn't come back to hurt Buxton and/or the team.

[rdehring]

Was watching the hockey game with a few brief stops at the Twins.  Saw a couple batters in the 1st or 2nd inning where Berrios threw 3 strikes (one at the top of the box, one at the bottom and one on the outside corner) that all showed most of the ball in the strike zone.  All three were called balls.  Could see his frustration.

 

He had to put the ball over the middle to get a strike and a couple batters latter...boom, 2-0 Angels.

 

[the_brute_squad]

To me it looks like he's tipping off his curveball.  It appeared that he slowed his motion down a few times.  It doesn't take long for a team like the Angels to pick up on that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

To me it looks like he's tipping off his curveball.  It appeared that he slowed his motion down a few times.  It doesn't take long for a team like the Angels to pick up on that.

They did look like they were sitting on those curves.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am somewhere between "not worried" and "sorta not that worried" on Berrios. I thought he pitched great in the Yankees game, but we gave them extra outs. I thought he was fine last night but the missed calls seemed to get in his head, and the mature Angels hitters just seemed to be waiting on a couple of those breaking pitches.

 

His next opponent is St Louis time to get ready for them.

[Number3]

Berrios seems to throw the ball up there and whatever happens happens. Hasn't become a pitcher yet unfortunately and good luck getting any help from Twins' coaching staff.

Buxton actually did have rehab; that is how he injured his tow, fouling off a pitch in a rehab game from his headache dl stint. Guess they decided rehab games are too dangerous. No question Grossman was coming around so Buxton was a liability at the plate compared to his "replacement".

Dozier 4-4 rest of team 4 for whatever.

Now need to win 2 of 3 to avoid coming home 4 under.

 

 

[USAFChief]

I thought he was fine last night but the missed calls seemed to get in his head, and the mature Angels hitters just seemed to be waiting on a couple of those breaking pitches.

 

I thought he was really bad last night, particularly on location. He left quite a few pitches right in the middle of the zone. The curve to Kinsler was particularly awful. A hanger of the first order.

[slash129]

 

Saw a couple batters in the 1st or 2nd inning where Berrios threw 3 strikes (one at the top of the box, one at the bottom and one on the outside corner) that all showed most of the ball in the strike zone.  All three were called balls.  Could see his frustration.

 

Yes.  The zone was all over the place last night.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

 Only 4 of the 9 guys in the current Twins lineup are producing runs, Rosario, Escobar, Keplar and Dozier. The other 5 aren't tough to pitch to and other teams know it.

 

Wow, this is reactionary fandom at its finest!

 

In the past 16 games Dozier had a .418 OPS and had driven in all of two runs. Not even a run a week. During that same time, Mauer had a .715 OPS and also drove in two runs. Mauer regularly takes great at-bats and is never an easy out.

 

It's a long season folks. Guys are gonna get hot. Guys are gonna get cold. Same thing with teams. Time to relax.

[slash129]

 

but Buxton and his batting is a problem.  How many balls does he have to catch that no one else can to offset his miserable at bats. 

 

Can we give Buxton a series to get his timing back? He didn't have a rehab assignment for better or worse.  Molitor put him in the 9 hole.  His trickle down effect on defense is worth it.  With all the action that Kepler was getting in right field, can you imagine if that would have been Grossman?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I thought he was really bad last night, particularly on location. He left quite a few pitches right in the middle of the zone.

Which could be an effect of the bush league strike zone last night, thinking he needs to throw it right down the middle.

[USAFChief]

 

Which could be an effect of the bush league strike zone last night, thinking he needs to throw it right down the middle.

There were a couple missed calls in the first inning. He got plenty of calls on, or just off, the edge of the zone as the night went on.

 

Don't blame the umpire for Berrios' struggles. 

[birddog]

I don't think we can be surprised that the Twins struggle against good veteran teams. We are young, inexperienced, and overly aggressive which will lead to ugly at bats and some ugly games. We have to hope that as we get more experience we can acquire the patience we need to succeed.

 

I agree that Berrios was squeezed last night in the strike zone, but ump was consistently tight for both squads. If they are serious about wanting to speed up the game, what better way than to tell umps to call everything in the black. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There were a couple missed calls in the first inning. He got plenty of calls on, or just off, the edge of the zone as the night went on.

 

Don't blame the umpire for Berrios' struggles.

 

The ball-strike calling was equally poor for both sides. Berrios needs to not let it get in his head, somehow. So, we agree.

[gocgo]

 

My take away is that we are playing another really good team and we do not do well against really good teams.  This is a real problem if we really think we are ready to compete in the post season.  

 

Berrios has no consistency and that is a worry.  According to Gladden three of the balls he through in the first inning walk were really strikes.  Has anyone plotted his performance when he has an umpire who squeezes the zone?  And why aren't we using technology to get the strikes right?  We want to get the home runs correct, we want to have replays, why not strikes - the most fundamental of all calls?

 

I suspect we have over worked Pressly already.  Molitor goes with the hot hand like he did Hildenberger last year, but the pitching coach needs to prevent him from over use.

 

Kepler is certainly starting out like our break out star for this year, but Buxton and his batting is a problem.  How many balls does he have to catch that no one else can to offset his miserable at bats. I do give the team credit for fighting back to tie the game.

I watched the first part of the game and I was very confused by the strike zone.  Berrios went 3-0 on Trout and put one right down the heart of the plate at the knees that was called a ball.  To his credit, he smiled.  There were a number of calls (against both teams) where it was obvious that it was a strike, but were called balls...then Morrison gets a fastball 6 inches outside that was called a strike.  It was crazy.  I think Esco went up to the plate and just hacked at everything because you couldn't take a 0-2 pitch with any confidence that it would be called correctly.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think we can be surprised that the Twins struggle against good veteran teams. We are young, inexperienced, and overly aggressive which will lead to ugly at bats and some ugly games. We have to hope that as we get more experience we can acquire the patience we need to succeed.

 

I agree that Berrios was squeezed last night in the strike zone, but ump was consistently tight for both squads. If they are serious about wanting to speed up the game, what better way than to tell umps to call everything in the black.

They aren't young or inexperienced as a team.

[Mr. Brooks]

Unless we go to robo umpires, missed calls are always going to be part of pitching. Every pitcher in baseball has to deal with that.

[USAFChief]

 

Unless we go to robo umpires, missed calls are always going to be part of pitching. Every pitcher in baseball has to deal with that.

Even if we do go to robo umpires, there will be calls people dispute.

[bighat]

 

Anyone expecting Buxton to come in after not playing in 3 weeks and suddenly become a hitting machine is fooling themselves.  He wasn't hitting before he got hurt, so taking that much time off and expecting him to come out of the gates on fire with the bat is silly.  That's why there are articles about whether or not it was a good idea to not send him on a rehab stint.  The fact that he wasn't hitting before probably should have been reason enough to send him on a rehab stint.  The team needs his defense, but they need his bat to come alive too.  I hope that this doesn't come back to hurt Buxton and/or the team.

 

I don't think a rehab stint would help Buxton much - he'd spend a week in Rochester and then come up and swing and miss for 3 more weeks against MLB pitching anyway. A rehab stint would be a week wasted, because Buxton needs to face MLB pitching. He's proven he can crush it in the minors, but that's never truly translated against MLB caliber pitching. He needs at bats against major leaguers because that's who the Twins need him to be able to hit against.

[twins1095]

It seems like Berrios has been getting squeezed a lot lately.  Also seems like there's been a lot of swinging bunt type hits that have fallen in.  This has led to a lot of extended innings and extra base runners that might not have been there otherwise.  Of course the home runs have been an issue too, although some of that has been compounded by the previous factors.  I think he's going to be a guy that gives up some HRs though...

 

With that being said, Berrios has to learn not to unravel when these things are happening and let things spiral.  He also needs to become a better pitcher and more consistent with his command out of the stretch.  

 

I'm confident if Berrios isn't getting squeezed and the bloop hits aren't falling, he's going to pitch well...however can he overcome some of that adversity in games when it isn't?

 

I want to see more 6 and 7 inning 3 run type starts when those things aren't going well as opposing to 7+ inning 0-1 run starts and 4-5 inning 4 and 5 run starts.  

 

This is a lot of what I see going on.  Not the worst or most unexplainable thing to be hampering him at 23 on the MLB stage, but it's also a little bit of a concern because it's seemingly more of a makeup thing than something practice and repetition and tweaks with coaching can correct.  It's also not a new trend.  

 

Not worried yet, but some improvement here would be nice to see soon.

[IaFan1]

Berrios,like most of the Twins top prospects that have made there way to MLB, is overated. He is a #3 at best. Maybe a #4. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Berrios,like most of the Twins top prospects that have made there way to MLB, is overated. He is a #3 at best. Maybe a #4.

He was rated, generally, as a number 3. So I don't think he was overrated. If anything, he was underrated, since he's already a #3, and is only 23 years old.

 

He is far too young to make any proclamations about what his ceiling is. He's only 7 months older than Fernando Romero, for perspective.

He's shown flashes of a good #2, borderline #1, and he certainly still has plenty of time to develop into that.

I, personally, still think he will.

[twins1095]

I'm gonna push back here a little bit.  I think there's a tendency to penalize players for developing at the Major League level rather than in the minors.  Berrios is almost penalized for dominating his peers and reaching the MLB at a time when his peers were at AA or such.  It's obvious that Berrios does have some flaws, but it's also obvious that he had nothing left to prove at the minor league level.  He's been inconsistent for sure, but I'm not sure growing pains and the real-time process of developing a more mature approach and the consistency it takes at the MLB level to be an "ace" and not just have "ace" stuff is really anything to be alarmed by.  

 

Especially towards a guy that at 23 just went 14-8 with a 3.8 era, striking out a batter an inning, allowing less than a hit per inning, and walking guys at lower than the league average rate at 23 years old.  

 

His peripherals are better than they were last year, although that does hide some inconsistency in his performance and he's near the league best in exit velocity off the bat--meaning he's generating a ton of weak contact.  

 

Progress is hard to see in real time.  I highly doubt that Berrios's current 15% HR/FB rate is going to stay that high and I highly doubt a pitcher with well-above league average "stuff" is going to continue to have a strand rate as low as his.  

 

He's getting tons of "soft contact", tons of infield pop-ups, and a lot more GBs than previous years.  He's generating elite (low) levels of hard contact, getting more swings and misses, etc.

 

Again there are some things to worry about...too many HRs...too many line drives.   Too inconsisent with command (although some of that is a little bit of getting squeezed) and a lack of focus and ability to overcome these types of things that are apart of baseball and limit damage.  

 

There's also a lot to be positive about too.

________________________________________________________________

 

I'm not sure if Berrios is going to develop into a true ace, the makeup concerns might prevent that.  However concerns around Berrios are much more about whether his weaknesses will make him a "#2" or maybe a borderline #2/#3 (who maybe on an elite championship staff would be a #3, but you can have two #2 caliber pitchers and you should on an elite staff) instead of an ace ....than Berrios's weaknesses making him a #3/#4.  

 

Berrios's ERA last year alone was around the 25th-30 range for SPs, man if that's a #4....

 

Plus, if Berrios develops into a solid #2/elite #3 which he's pretty close to already and that's being a little negative...that's not really that much to be down about.  Not many players become Kershaw or Verlander.  If he's a tier or a couple tiers from that he's still a well above average player.

 

Berrios,like most of the Twins top prospects that have made there way to MLB, is overated. He is a #3 at best. Maybe a #4. 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by twins1095

[mattkummer]

At a certain point, Berrios needs to figure out the command issues at MLB. There's no use in sending him to AAA, because he'll dominate there without having to figure it out. He's got the stuff, he's got the work ethic. It's just putting it together.

 

And, he's had some atrocious strike zones to deal with.

[jkcarew]

Stop with the strike zone.  Unless you're willing to argue that Barrios has had tough strike zones for 4 straight games.

 

His issue is command.  Always has been.  And, when looking at larger samples, you can argue that he's trending still in the right direction.  I don't think he'll fail for either lack of work-ethic or lack of stuff.  It's just can he find the consistency in all the mechanical stuff that results in throwing the ball where he wants to most times he goes out there.